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Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Reflections on baseball moving on from RBIs. | SportsonEarth.com : Will Leitch Article

The RBI still has a warm place in my heart, like Cheez-Its.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 27, 2015 at 08:21 AM | 31 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Baseball’s best catchers visualized - Beyond the Box Score

This allows for reviewing players by position and plotting their salary against their WAR values. FanGraphs includes a measure that estimates the dollar value a player has delivered, which creates an apples-to-apples comparison—their pro-rated salary compared to their FanGraphs Dollar Value (FG$V). This makes it very easy to see who’s delivering value—and who isn’t.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 26, 2015 at 11:20 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: catchers, sabermetrics

Player’s View: Kill the Win | FanGraphs Baseball

How about just putting it in a coma?

Jim Furtado Posted: May 26, 2015 at 11:01 AM | 29 comment(s)
  Beats: kill the win, sabermetrics

Sabermetric Research: Do defensive statistics overrate the importance of fielding?

Phil Birnbaum doesn’t like dWAR. Soon, if MLB allows researchers to access their new fielding data, dWAR for current seasons will be calculated in an entirely different manner.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 26, 2015 at 06:49 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Beats: fielding, sabermetrics, war

Thursday, May 21, 2015

How pitch framing has hurt Andrew Cashner in 2015 - MLB

How much this is impacting other pitchers on the team? Tyson Ross’ walk rate has exploded this season.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 21, 2015 at 03:13 PM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: andrew cashner, padres, pitch framing, sabermetrics

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Stan Boroski on the Rays’ PITCHf/x Usage | FanGraphs Baseball

Sabermetricians, scouts, coaches, and ball players coexisting and working together?

Goodbye all, nice knowing you,  the apocalypse is nigh!

Jim Furtado Posted: May 19, 2015 at 09:50 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: pitchfx, sabermetrics

Is lineup protection a myth or reality? It’s both, and that paradox is telling. - Beyond the Box Score

Lineup protection exists—it also doesn’t. Baseball players are aware of lineup protection and modify their approach because of it, even though their managers might have a different idea entirely of what lineup protection means. Batters think about protection, too, and part of successful hitting is the ability to think with the game as it’s happening. However, modified approaches don’t alter results in any meaningful way, as analysts such as Tom Tango and Jeff Sullivan show.

The simultaneous existence and non-existence of lineup protection isn’t one of those “if you believe the lie, it’s true” sort of things because actors can make lineup protection true by action. Indeed, some of the quotes above indicate that they have put forth effort to do so. Baseball players and managers have made a concerted effort toward realizing lineup protection, and yet they have failed to do so. We’re left without any evidence of an effect of protection.

But a paucity of evidence, in turn, leaves us with another sort of paradoxical truism that is at once boring and exciting. It all really boils down to a competition of talent between the pitcher and the batter—that’s baseball.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 19, 2015 at 09:49 AM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: lineups, sabermetrics

Velocity and the Likelihood of Tommy John Surgery | Community – FanGraphs Baseball

Don’t want to get hurt, stop throwing so hard.

As you can see these results are more in line with Dr. Fleisig’s results (25% Major League pitchers). I don’t think it’s unreasonable there are some differences, however. This would depend on our methods of gathering the data and how we defined what a Major League pitcher is. My definition was very loose. Basically if a pitcher came up and threw one inning, then I put him in the results. The reason why I didn’t have a stricter definition of what a Major League pitcher was was because my goal wasn’t to find the percentage of Majors League pitchers who had Tommy John. Rather it was to examine the relationship between velocity and Tommy John surgeries. This is really just an added bonus. Also, Dr. Fleisig’s goal was to see how many current pitchers had Tommy John. My results are the percentage of pitchers who have had Tommy John since 2002 and 2007. We, however, now can accurately conclude, in my estimation, that Carroll’s results were way too high and that velocity does increase a player’s chance of having Tommy John.

This can make pitcher selection now very interesting. For example, if you are trying to decipher whether to get a pitcher who throws 96 MPH who is just as good as a pitcher who throws 90 MPH, you might be better off taking the guy who throws 90. By doing that you would be reducing the odds that that pitcher has Tommy John by about 7 to 10 percent, which is pretty good if you ask me. Also if you’re a GM or in fantasy and are terrified of relievers because you think they all tear their ulnar collateral ligaments, well you shouldn’t be. Your starters are actually slightly more likely to tear their UCL. There are of course other factors to consider here but these can serve as basic general guidelines. Finally velocity does increase your likelihood of tearing your UCL, although with starters the data is a little murkier.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 19, 2015 at 09:39 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: pitcher injuries, pitching, sabermetrics, tommy john surgery

“Big Data Baseball” A Big Hit – The Hardball Times

I’ve been waiting for this book. (Why did they wait so long?)

Jim Furtado Posted: May 19, 2015 at 06:53 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: book reviews, pirates, sabermetrics

Monday, May 18, 2015

WAR Diagram: Position Players | FanGraphs Baseball

It’s visual!

Jim Furtado Posted: May 18, 2015 at 10:26 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics, war

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Who are the Best and Worst Defensive Teams So Far? | Articles | Bill James Online

KC has the best. Philadelphia has the worst.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 17, 2015 at 08:48 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: fielding, sabermetrics

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Third time isn’t the charm for Rays | FOX Sports

Sometimes people overcomplicate things.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 16, 2015 at 01:09 PM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

What can be learned from batted ball data? - Beyond the Box Score

File in the “Needing Follow-up:” category.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 16, 2015 at 08:50 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Friday, May 15, 2015

Baseball Prospectus | Daisy Cutter: Shark Tank

The solution to Samardzija’s problems may not be that simple. It’s easy to say that he should just go to pitches that worked for him in the past more often; but currently, those pitches—the sinker and the split—are getting hit and hit hard. He’s using his slider, but he’s missing with it badly and frequently. Those are pitches that helped lead him to his best season ever, and they don’t appear to be having the same effect as they once did.

There’s no easy fix here. Samardzija has to find his command and get his pitch usage and sequencing right. That’s certainly not out of the question—we already saw Samardzija emerge as a great starter despite every bit of evidence we had suggesting he wouldn’t. However, until that happens, the White Sox won’t be able to boast the devastating one-two punch at the top of their rotation that they expected to have when the season began.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 15, 2015 at 11:10 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: jeff samardzija, sabermetrics, white sox

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

The unlucky season of the super-lucky Giants - SBNation.com

Grant Brisbee breaks down the runs scored/allowed data.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 12, 2015 at 09:49 AM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

The Remarkably Unclutch Oakland A’s | FanGraphs Baseball

If things don’t turn around in the next month, Beane will start selling off, which will mean the talent will match the record.

No team is diverging from their BaseRuns expectations at anything near the rate that the A’s are. Instead of being 12-21, BaseRuns actually expects that the A’s would be 18-15 at this point, a .539 expected winning percentage that would have them as the 11th best team in baseball. No other team in baseball is underperforming their BaseRuns record by more than three wins, and since 2002, no team has underperformed their BaseRuns by more than 11 wins over the course of a full season. At their current pace, the A’s would win 54 fewer games than their BaseRuns total, which, you know, isn’t going to happen.

As is usually the case when teams have massive divergences like this, the first place to look is the bullpen, and the A’s bullpen has been a disaster. Their bullpen’s 5.16 ERA is 28th in MLB, as is their 4.44 FIP; their 4.50 xFIP ranks 30th. But again, those are context-neutral numbers, and BaseRuns is including those struggles in the calculations. But it’s context-specific performances where the A’s pitching staff has really let them down, and this is how you play pretty well overall but still lose 21 of 33 games.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 12, 2015 at 06:30 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: athletics, sabermetrics

Monday, May 11, 2015

Boras’s Binders: What Baseball’s In-House Analytics Revolution Means for MLB Agents’ Edge «

How many teams are swayed by agent research?

Jim Furtado Posted: May 11, 2015 at 10:08 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: agents, sabermetrics

Saturday, May 09, 2015


Wednesday, May 06, 2015

How far will Statcast’s reach extend? | MLB.com

How much of the defensive stuff will be made publicly available? I can’t see how the availability of this data won’t make all the current defensive metrics obsolete.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 06, 2015 at 09:23 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics, statcast

Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Getting The Most Out Of Batted-Ball Data: The Basics | FanGraphs Baseball

Tony Blengino parses the data.

Batted-ball data can easily be misinterpreted, but once you understand its nuances, it is an exceptional aid in talent evaluation. Just looking at a player’s average exit speed on all BIP types can be very misleading; hitting a bunch of 90 MPH fly balls doesn’t get you much of anywhere. Being able to weave together the intricacies of frequency and authority, while taking into account pull tendencies, park effects, etc., enables one to combine such new-school information with older-school traditional scouting to create a more complete, valid portrait of the modern ballplayer.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 05, 2015 at 11:29 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

Monday, May 04, 2015

Hanley Ramirez and Batted-Ball Data | FanGraphs Baseball

Data and your lying eyes.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 04, 2015 at 02:33 PM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: hitfx, sabermetrics, statcast

How Contact Ability Might Influence a Hitter’s Transition to the Majors | FanGraphs Baseball

Is it really shocking that being able to put the bat on the ball translates better in the major leagues?

Bat-to-ball ability is obviously a great tool for a hitter to have. We already knew that. But these data suggest that — for whatever reason — it might be even more important when facing major league pitching. If true, this could help explain the downfalls of recently highly-touted prospects like Mike Olt, Jon Singleton and Jackie Bradley Jr., who are already flirting with the “bust” label. It could also be the reason why contact machines like Brock Holt, Scooter Gennett and Jordy Mercer managed to sneak up on many of us.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 04, 2015 at 10:03 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, sabermetrics

Friday, May 01, 2015

Starting Rotations April 30, 2015 | Bill James Online

My real purpose in doing this was to educate myself about the 30 major league rotations.  If I can force myself to do this once a week—which I probably can’t, but if I could—then I would develop a stronger understanding of who was in the rotation right now for all 30 teams, who their #1 starter was, etc.  I’m old; I have a hard time lodging all of that information in my head.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 01, 2015 at 09:26 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Beats: bill james, pitching, sabermetrics

Brady Anderson on Analytics | FanGraphs Baseball

Well worth reading.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 01, 2015 at 08:15 AM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: adam jones, brady anderson, orioles, sabermetrics

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

BP BOSTON: THE BOOK ON MOOKIE BETTS

Some good stuff from BP’s Matthew Kory.

Jim Furtado Posted: April 29, 2015 at 02:23 PM | 2 comment(s)
  Beats: mookie betts, red sox, sabermetrics, xander bogaerts

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