Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Sample Size Newsbeat

Thursday, May 01, 2014

BtBS: How much does a team’s early-season record inform their playoff odds?

This is the time of year when announcers, talk show hosts and web columnists start asking “How many games does a team need to play before we know what kind of team they really are?” So far this year, I’ve heard anything from 30 all the way to 60. I almost choked when I heard 60—at that point the season is almost 40% played, and absent drastic and unpredictable events (trades, injuries, phenoms like Yasiel Puig who totally outperform any reasonable expectation) the team has moved beyond the prediction phase to that of actual. [...]

Of the teams [since 1995, when the divisional playoff level was added] playing at less than .400 at the 60-game mark (a 23-37 record or worse), none made the playoffs. Conversely, almost 72 percent of teams with a record of 36-24 or better eventually made the playoffs. The demarcation point seems pretty clear—at the 60-game mark, teams need to be playing around .550 ball (33-27) in order to have reasonable chances of making the playoffs.

I don’t find these numbers surprising, but I’m more curious how many fewer games can be played before reasonable inferences can be made.

bobm Posted: May 01, 2014 at 12:35 AM | 18 comment(s)
  Beats: playoffs, sample size

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BarrysLazyBoy
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogWhat's Wrong With Baseball?
(17 - 8:25am, Aug 30)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(809 - 8:20am, Aug 30)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogRockies' Troy Tulowitzki bent on playing shortstop: "I will retire before I move"
(18 - 8:14am, Aug 30)
Last: RMc's desperate, often sordid world

NewsblogRobothal: Tension growing between Astros' manager, GM
(41 - 7:50am, Aug 30)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogPosnanski: Alex Gordon and the M-V-P chants
(63 - 7:40am, Aug 30)
Last: vivaelpujols

NewsblogJesus Montero gets heckled by Mariners cross checker during rehab stint
(52 - 6:34am, Aug 30)
Last: Swedish Chef

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-29-2014
(44 - 3:03am, Aug 30)
Last: Infinite Joost (Voxter)

NewsblogDavid Justice Says Put Barry Bonds in Baseball Hall of Fame Despite Steroid Use Late In Career
(156 - 2:28am, Aug 30)
Last: Jimmy

NewsblogIndians Sign Russell Branyan
(13 - 2:13am, Aug 30)
Last: Lindor Truffles

NewsblogWatch a Japanese baseball player try to hit a 186 mph fastball (Video)
(20 - 1:31am, Aug 30)
Last: Born1951

NewsblogAdam Jones says he was joking about 'airport' comment at social media event
(15 - 11:47pm, Aug 29)
Last: McCoy

NewsblogJonny Venters Tears UCL, Facing Third Tommy John Surgery
(18 - 10:29pm, Aug 29)
Last: BDC

NewsblogFG (Zimmerman): Alex Gordon, UZR, and Bad Left Field Defense
(43 - 10:22pm, Aug 29)
Last: BDC

NewsblogAngels beat Athletics, Oakland protests game after obstruction call
(30 - 9:18pm, Aug 29)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogOT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(6226 - 9:10pm, Aug 29)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

Page rendered in 1.0908 seconds
47 querie(s) executed