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Jim Furtado
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Sample Size Newsbeat

Monday, June 22, 2015

A New Way to Look at Sample Size

Our aim in this project is to extend the understanding of reliability and show a more complete picture of how additional plate appearances affect the reliability value of everyday stats for both batters and pitchers. We want to reinforce the idea that reliability is a spectrum, not a single point. There is no single point at which you can say a stat has stabilized. We also want to use the concept of reliability to regress toward the mean and to make confidence bands that give a better idea of a player’s true talent. (Throughout this project we define true talent as the actual talent level — not the value they provide adjusted to park, competition, etc.)....

The most important conclusion to be drawn is there is no single point at which a stat becomes reliable or stable. The alpha reliability data visualization demonstrates that idea, using the reliability measurement to regress the stat to the mean and create confidence bands. The regressed stat and confidence bands are descriptive, rather than predictive, and are not adjusted for park factors, league adjustments, etc. This can provide an estimation of a player’s true-talent level based on how the player has performed. They aren’t intended to be projections.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 22, 2015 at 11:36 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: sample size



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