Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Sample Size Newsbeat

Sunday, April 19, 2015

The Economist: One swing is all you need

Why one moonshot can matter more than years of past performance: applying Bill James’s concept of “signature significance” to home run distance.

The group of 22 players who have hit at least one 477-foot homer over the past eight seasons…features Mike Trout…Giancarlo Stanton…Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, David Ortiz, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Edwin Encarnación and Mark Teixeira…

For each foot beyond the distance of a league-average longball (usually just under 400 feet) that any individual home run travels, an additional 0.06% of that batter’s other line drives and outfield fly balls in that season become home runs…If a player about whom we had no other information—say, a recent arrival from Cuba—hit a home run of average distance in his first at-bat, we would expect him to hit about 6% more homers than an average player for the rest of the season. In contrast, if the player hit a 477-foot home run like Mr Rodríguez’s in his first at-bat, we would expect him to hit around 50% more homers than average…

The fact that [Alex] Rodríguez propelled a single baseball 477 feet means there is a very strong chance he is not the player we thought he was. Guys who are washed up just don’t hit 477-foot homers. Not even once.


 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dock Ellis on Acid
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogScripts for the inevitable 'Milestones Press Conference' | FOX Sports
(4 - 12:07pm, May 04)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Newsblog10 Degrees: Jered Weaver's fastball can't even break a Texas speed limit, and what it means for his future - Yahoo Sports
(5 - 12:04pm, May 04)
Last: The Good Face

NewsblogOTP - May 2015: Jeb Bush would like to watch baseball with Teddy Roosevelt and Pitbull
(377 - 12:04pm, May 04)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogElite travel baseball and basketball teams make for a youth sports industrial complex
(62 - 12:03pm, May 04)
Last: Damon Rutherford

NewsblogBrewers fire manager Ron Roenicke, reportedly set to hire Craig Counsell
(40 - 12:02pm, May 04)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogBoston Red Sox swept by New York Yankees, lose ground to skeptics - Boston Red Sox Blog - ESPN
(19 - 12:02pm, May 04)
Last: Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige

Newsblognj.com: Recovery from Tommy John surgery in 6 months? How Mets and Yankees are helping MLB solve elbow injury epidemic
(3 - 12:01pm, May 04)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)

NewsblogAlex Rodriguez won't talk spat with Yankees over bonus money - NY Daily News
(6 - 11:51am, May 04)
Last: aberg

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - May 2015
(217 - 11:50am, May 04)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogOT: 2015 NHL Playoff thread
(108 - 11:46am, May 04)
Last: Moses Taylor studied spirit biking in Giberia

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-4-2015
(18 - 11:45am, May 04)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogPBA.com: John Burkett Looking Forward to Career as PBA50 Tour Player
(4 - 11:35am, May 04)
Last: Chone Mueller

NewsblogJoc Pederson homers in fourth straight game as Dodgers beat Arizona, 6-4 - LA Times
(9 - 10:14am, May 04)
Last: Charles S. has an IV drip in his arm

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 5-3-15
(111 - 9:53am, May 04)
Last: Der-K is at half whelm.

NewsblogVideo: James Taylor debuts new song | MLB.com
(10 - 9:37am, May 04)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

Page rendered in 1.0559 seconds
49 querie(s) executed