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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Cameron: The Market for Offense Might Be Overcorrecting

And we probably haven’t seen the last of deals like this. If Rasmus can only get $5 million, and no one would take Seth Smith at $7 million, how does Brandon Moss ask for significantly more? What kind of offers are Carter and Pedro Alvarez going to get in a world where similar hitters with better defensive abilities are settling for cut-rate contracts just to land a job.

On the one hand, we could look at deals like this and think that perhaps the market has decided to pay less than the roughly $8 million per win rate for marginal starters, preferring to save their money for better players overall. But this downturn in spending on +1 WAR veterans only shows up when we look at bat-first 1B/OF/DH types.

...

The market has long overpaid one-dimensional power hitters. This, though, feels like more than just a simple market correction. When perfectly useful players on one year deals for $7 million can’t get moved for even a non-prospect, it feels like the pendulum has swung too far the other way. It’s time to jump on this, contenders; these bargains won’t last forever.

I’ve been thinking something similar for a while. This seems to go beyond mere WAR valuations. Contra: Dave Kingman and Rob Deer bounced around.

Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:10 PM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: free agency, markets, moneyball, sluggers, tulips

 

 

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