Sunday, May 12, 2013
Well, we quickly have an idea of strikeout rate, ground ball and fly ball tendencies, and (somewhat less quickly), walk rate. Over a season, you can get a pretty good idea of a pitcher’s single and HBP rates. Strangely enough, singles stabilize a lot faster than the alleged “true” outcome of HR rate. Some of the classic one-number rates (OBP, SLG) can stabilize over the course of a year for a full-time starter. And yes, BABIP still needs a lot of data (roughly 2000 balls in play), but that number is actually about half of what I had once estimated elsewhere. [...]
When I say that strikeout rate for pitchers stabilizes at 70 batters faced, what I mean is that we can be reasonably sure that his strikeout rate over those 70 batters is a good reflection of his talent level over those 70 (now past) plate appearances. This is different from saying that once a pitcher has gotten to 70 batters, we can assume that he will perform this way for the rest of the season. That’s an assumption. It’s not a bad one, but it is an assumption. Instead, what it means is that if his underlying skill set has changed in some meaningful way, we’ll know in 70 plate appearances.
Posted: May 12, 2013 at 01:44 AM | 2 comment(s)
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Tuesday, April 02, 2013
As players, managers and front office executives embrace the esoteric statistics, teams increasingly want their radio announcers just as fluent in the language of WAR, VORP and B.A.B.I.P. (Those stand for wins above replacement, value over replacement player and batting average on balls in play, for those of you dusting off your radios as the season begins.)
“They wanted a broadcaster who is at least comfortable with exploring the idea of discussing advanced statistics and what they mean,” said Robert Ford, 33, who was hired by the Houston Astros in the off-season, along with Steve Sparks, 48, a former pitcher, to call the team’s games. The advent of advanced statistical analysis, Mr. Ford said, has “changed the way we think about baseball.”
Now, as the two settle into the Astros’ broadcast booth, they and their colleagues across the country face a balancing act. How much do listeners want to know about these advanced numbers? How much is informative? And how much would prompt the audience, a group that spans all generations, to tune out?
Listeners and announcers alike say that striking the right balance will be a challenge.
Monday, January 07, 2013
Of the adults polled, 34 percent said pro football was their favorite sport, not surprisingly making it the top dog in American sports. Actually, I’m surprised the gap wasn’t wider. Baseball checked in at No. 2 with 16 percent of the vote, followed by college football (11 percent), auto racing (eight percent), men’s pro basketball (seven percent), hockey (five percent) and men’s college basketball (three percent).
Now, I found the headline on adage.com a bit odd. It was “Look out, baseball, college football is hot on your cleats.” I found it odd because, last year, baseball and college football were tied for second at 13 percent each. So baseball gained three percentage points, college football lost two and it’s “look out, baseball?”
I was unaware the College Football was a sport. I thought it was a playing level of a sport.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
“A college pitcher with a knack for numbers and his statistics-loving coach have found a way to mine baseball statistics that could help big-league scouts and managers more accurately assess minor-league prospects and bring better hitters to The Show.
Major-league teams analyze reams of data when building and managing squads, a numbers-driven endeavor that’s been part of the game since the Brooklyn Dodgers hired the sport’s first full-time statistician in the 1940s. But while much work has been done on properly valuing major-leaguers, little has been done with minor-league hitters.”
for his generous support.
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