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Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Grading the projections: 2016

ZiPS didn’t have a good year. ZiPS was the least accurate of the three systems in each of the five categories, and never by a particularly small margin. You don’t want to conclude too much based on a single season of results, but ZiPS didn’t perform very well in last year’s review, either. (I should also note that this is Steamer’s second straight year of leading the pack in convincing fashion.)

Marcel does its job. Marcel wasn’t great, but it was almost always in the neighborhood of accurate. It beat ZiPS in four of the five categories, and even led OBP. Marcel remains very hard to convincingly beat (or even beat at all), despite its simplicity.

Averaging the projections might be a great idea. The “Average” row in the above table is exactly what you would expect: the accuracy of the average of all four systems. It beats all four systems in four of the five categories, and fell short of only Steamer in the fifth. One would expect that an average would rarely be egregiously wrong; it’s surprising to see that the average also tended to be closer to right than each individual projection. This could be a quirk of a single season of projections, but at the very least, it seems to say that the brute-force method of resolving differences between the projection systems is credible.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 10, 2017 at 11:34 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: marcel, pecota, steamer, zips

 

 

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