Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Strikeouts Newsbeat

Monday, June 15, 2015

Kenny: The end of FIP as we know it

Professor Jon Heyman comments: “We’re going to have to sit shiva.”

What McCracken found became the foundation for how we would understand pitching. There is a wild variance in the batted ball. Defense and luck are huge components in run prevention. What was known as the “peripherals,” the strikeouts and walks, would’ve been better known as the “essentials.” For the past 14 years, you could reliably find out how good an outing was by looking at a pitcher’s strikeouts and walks.

This breakthrough, as recent as it is, now seems to be blowing up. Extremes in strikeouts and walks are throwing it all off.

I began to notice one strange start after another. Check out this list:

      Brandon McCarthy: 10 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 5 runs.
      C.J. Wilson: 8 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 6 runs.
      Noah Syndergaard: 10 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 7 runs.
      Anibal Sanchez: 9 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 5 runs.

This is NOT supposed to happen. Ten strikeouts and no walks is what Cliff Lee is supposed to be doing, when Cliff Lee is throwing a shutout.

I began to look at how often this was happening. How many times has a pitcher had at least eight strikeouts and one walk or less, while also giving up five runs or more? In 2012, it happened only 12 times. In 2013, it was up to 17. Last year, it went up to 20.

In only about two months of the 2015 season, it has already happened 17 times. Meaning, in 2015, we are going to double or triple the amount of outings where a pitcher is dominant with his strikeouts and walks but is also getting hammered.

It’s also happening at the top end—not just the second-tier strikeout artists—to some of the best pitchers in the game. In just over 80 innings, Clayton Kershaw has 101 strikeouts and only 19 walks. That’s sensational, right? Wrong. He has a 3.36 ERA. After being No. 1 for four straight years, he’s now 40th among qualifiers. To illustrate it another way, Kershaw is currently seventh in FIP, but 40th in ERA. His ERA and his “expected ERA,” which is what FIP should be, are not matching up.

What about Corey Kluber? He has 91 innings, with 109 strikeouts and just 17 walks. Incredible numbers. Yet, his ERA is 3.53. Kluber is third in FIP, but 46th in ERA.

JE (Jason) Posted: June 15, 2015 at 05:58 AM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: fip, sabermetrics, strikeouts, three true outcomes, walks

Wednesday, May 06, 2015


Sunday, April 26, 2015

Fangraphs: Different Aging Curves for Different Strikeout Profiles.

Players that strikeout more than league average still peak earlier than players that strike out less than league average, but in this more current population of players, players that strikeout more than league average peak very early—their age 21 season. This information would reciprocate the sentiment that has been conveyed through recent work that suggests that the aging curve has changed to the point that players peak almost as soon as when they enter the league.

Enjoy your Kris Bryant while you have him.

Cloude Atlas (Voxter) Posted: April 26, 2015 at 02:56 PM | 29 comment(s)
  Beats: aging, hitting, sabermetrics, strikeouts

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
A triple short of the cycle
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP - September 2015: Making Sense Of The Republican Presidential Race: It's Like Major League Baseball In August
(212 - 10:56am, Sep 02)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogCubs content to make do down stretch to playoffs - Chicago Tribune
(1 - 10:55am, Sep 02)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogThe plan appears simple enough: The Miami Marlins this week will ask Dan Jennings to step down as manager and resume his role as GM, according to major-league sources. | FOX Sports
(5 - 10:49am, Sep 02)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-2-15
(2 - 10:49am, Sep 02)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogFan dies in fall from upper deck at Turner Field | www.ajc.com
(284 - 10:48am, Sep 02)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogForbes: Maury Brown: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Rejects Reinstatement Of 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson
(32 - 10:48am, Sep 02)
Last: Tom Nawrocki

NewsblogKelvin Herrera, Alex Rios infected as chickenpox hits Royals’ clubhouse
(8 - 10:47am, Sep 02)
Last: Batman

NewsblogNotable Sept. 1 Callups - BaseballAmerica.com
(1 - 10:45am, Sep 02)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogHow to fix an MLB rule so stupid even the NFL doesn’t mess it up | New York Post
(13 - 10:38am, Sep 02)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogOT: Soccer August 2015
(638 - 10:35am, Sep 02)
Last: J. Sosa

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-2-2015
(9 - 10:29am, Sep 02)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogBabe Ruth’s Former New York Apartment Can Be Bought For Just $1.6M (Photos) | MLB | NESN.com
(14 - 10:20am, Sep 02)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogThe Atlantic: The Many Problems With 'Moneyball'
(83 - 10:15am, Sep 02)
Last: TJ

NewsblogKevin Kiermaier channeled his inner Mike Trout to scale Camden Yards wall and steal a home run | MLB.com
(2 - 10:03am, Sep 02)
Last: Greg K

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1908 Ballot
(5 - 10:00am, Sep 02)
Last: bjhanke

Page rendered in 0.1966 seconds
53 querie(s) executed