Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Three True Outcomes Newsbeat

Monday, June 15, 2015

Kenny: The end of FIP as we know it

Professor Jon Heyman comments: “We’re going to have to sit shiva.”

What McCracken found became the foundation for how we would understand pitching. There is a wild variance in the batted ball. Defense and luck are huge components in run prevention. What was known as the “peripherals,” the strikeouts and walks, would’ve been better known as the “essentials.” For the past 14 years, you could reliably find out how good an outing was by looking at a pitcher’s strikeouts and walks.

This breakthrough, as recent as it is, now seems to be blowing up. Extremes in strikeouts and walks are throwing it all off.

I began to notice one strange start after another. Check out this list:

      Brandon McCarthy: 10 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 5 runs.
      C.J. Wilson: 8 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 6 runs.
      Noah Syndergaard: 10 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 7 runs.
      Anibal Sanchez: 9 strikeouts and 0 walks ... 5 runs.

This is NOT supposed to happen. Ten strikeouts and no walks is what Cliff Lee is supposed to be doing, when Cliff Lee is throwing a shutout.

I began to look at how often this was happening. How many times has a pitcher had at least eight strikeouts and one walk or less, while also giving up five runs or more? In 2012, it happened only 12 times. In 2013, it was up to 17. Last year, it went up to 20.

In only about two months of the 2015 season, it has already happened 17 times. Meaning, in 2015, we are going to double or triple the amount of outings where a pitcher is dominant with his strikeouts and walks but is also getting hammered.

It’s also happening at the top end—not just the second-tier strikeout artists—to some of the best pitchers in the game. In just over 80 innings, Clayton Kershaw has 101 strikeouts and only 19 walks. That’s sensational, right? Wrong. He has a 3.36 ERA. After being No. 1 for four straight years, he’s now 40th among qualifiers. To illustrate it another way, Kershaw is currently seventh in FIP, but 40th in ERA. His ERA and his “expected ERA,” which is what FIP should be, are not matching up.

What about Corey Kluber? He has 91 innings, with 109 strikeouts and just 17 walks. Incredible numbers. Yet, his ERA is 3.53. Kluber is third in FIP, but 46th in ERA.

JE (Jason) Posted: June 15, 2015 at 05:58 AM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: fip, sabermetrics, strikeouts, three true outcomes, walks

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogWith money and cutting-edge brilliance, Dodgers playing a game others can’t - Yahoo Sports
(111 - 10:59pm, Aug 02)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogThis Is The Refusal Roberto Clemente Got When He Asked For A Raise
(35 - 10:58pm, Aug 02)
Last: bobm

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-2-15
(121 - 10:57pm, Aug 02)
Last: Banta

NewsblogOTP - July 2015: Winning the Political Game: Politics is More Like Baseball Than Football
(6371 - 10:52pm, Aug 02)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogMLB trade deadline losers | FOX Sports
(11 - 10:52pm, Aug 02)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogA.J. Burnett injured, might be done pitching | MLB.com
(5 - 10:51pm, Aug 02)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogHow August Trades Work - MLB Trade Rumors
(4 - 10:49pm, Aug 02)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogBay Area Sports Guy – Madison Bumgarner isn’t racist, he’s a control freak
(37 - 10:43pm, Aug 02)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogOMNICHATTER FOR AUGUST 1, 2015
(183 - 9:56pm, Aug 02)
Last: JE (Jason)

NewsblogOT: Soccer June 2015
(1458 - 9:02pm, Aug 02)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogLarry Lucchino to step down as Red Sox chief executive at end of season - Sports - The Boston Globe
(15 - 8:37pm, Aug 02)
Last: Mudpout

NewsblogDiamondbacks GM Dave Stewart: Padres asked for Paul Goldschmidt in trade
(28 - 8:21pm, Aug 02)
Last: haven

NewsblogRed Sox fan struggles with poncho, announcers can’t keep it together - Sports - The Boston Globe
(5 - 7:46pm, Aug 02)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogInjury to Burnett forced the Pirates' hand to add pitcher | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
(7 - 7:35pm, Aug 02)
Last: bobm

NewsblogREMEMBER WHEN METS WERE A JOKE? | FOX Sports
(21 - 6:58pm, Aug 02)
Last: JE (Jason)

Page rendered in 0.1885 seconds
47 querie(s) executed