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Toronto Blue Jays Newsbeat

Friday, October 12, 2018

Szymborski: Elegy for ‘18 - Toronto Blue Jays

Faced with a lot of things that went wrong and few that went right, Toronto took the risk of neither rebuilding not retooling, but rather simply hoping that enough things going right in 2018, combined with improving the team’s depth, would preserve just enough oomph on the roster to be competitive. Then Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette would arrive, like Blücher and Zieten at Waterloo and the Jays could…uh…exile Brian Cashman and Dave Dombrowski to Elba? I need to work on that analogy.

[...] 

I went back and looked at the best projections ZiPS has ever given a position player prospect. The previous highs were Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Ronald Acuña. Vladito’s projections are better than any of those. The only player in his top 10 offensive comps that wasn’t a perennial All-Star is Bob Bailey. When I ran Vlad’s projections earlier this year for the Trade Value series, I literally went in and made sure something wasn’t broken.

There’s no guarantee for Guerrero — skewness of risk essentially means there are a lot more things that could make him fall short than exceed his projections — but if he’s not even a good player, it would be one of the largest busts in the history of baseball.

The 2019 projection for Guerrero Jr. is .288/.349/.503 (126 OPS+), 25 HR and 2.8 WAR.

The Run Fairy Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:09 PM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: dan szymborski, toronto blue jays, vladimir guerrero jr., zips

 

 

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