Trade Deadline Newsbeat
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Neyer declares war on “need.”
So you’ve got all those contending teams and all those late-July trades, and I can’t find a single compelling instance of a player who really made a difference.
Is this normal? No, and yes. Last season was atypical, just in terms of how few division races wound up being even remotely close. But let’s just think about the math for a moment. Leaving aside Mike Trout, your typical great player is worth about six wins above replacement over a whole season … which means he’s worth only two wins after the trade deadline. How many races come down to two wins or fewer? Not many. How many of the teams in those races ultimately win the World Series? Even fewer?
Here’s the problem with using the word “need” ... According to Baseball Prospectus’s latest Playoff Odds Report, the Blue Jays have a 4.7-percent chance of winning the World Series. That is, a title. Let’s say they add a starter and a reliever. Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman. Which would really be something, wouldn’t it? That’s about as well as they could possibly do!
If they added both those guys, made a true blockbuster deal, their chances of winning the World Series might jump all the way to eight or nine percent. But probably more like six or seven.
Which is why I don’t buy into need, but rather want or good to have. Because I’m pretty sure the Angels aren’t listening on Trout.
Addendum: Everything above refers to contenders. As we’ve seen, it’s difficult to make a trade that actually makes a real difference in the standings, let alone in October. But if you’re the Phillies or the Reds or one of another dozen or so teams that’s got very little chance of playing big games in September, let alone October? Then, yeah: I’ll go ahead and say you need to get something done. If you ask me, late July is a great time to be out of contention. Because all those teams with prospects think they need your veterans.
Posted: July 25, 2015 at 05:41 PM | 23 comment(s)
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Keep the trade deadline where it is.
Commissioner Rob Manfred thinks baseball may need to consider moving the trade deadline back to give teams in the hunt for a wild card more time.
A second wild card in each league was added in 2012, keeping more teams in playoff contention long past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. And those clubs may not have enough time to evaluate whether their rosters are good enough to get one.
“I think that the July 31st deadline is something that we may want to revisit in the context of the revised playoff format,” Manfred said Wednesday. “Obviously when you have two additional opportunities to be in the playoffs, you have more teams in the hunt and they may want to wait a little longer before they make decisions.”
“On the other hand, you’ve got to remember, we want teams that the core of which have been together for the year playing in the postseason,” he said. “So you have to just balance those two issues, I think.”
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Is Cueto hurt?
But even with so many teams still in contention, there will be impact players changing teams, possibly several of them. Reds ace Johnny Cueto could be the best, but there is a long list of others, including Cueto’s teammate Mike Leake.
Monday, July 13, 2015
What surprised the Pirates, and many industry observers, was the Tampa Bay Rays preferred a return of young, major league players. The Boston Red Sox also traded their ace, Jon Lester, for a major league player in Yoenis Cespedes prior to the deadline. Huntington said the focus of the sellers has again been on major league talent — not prospects — as the July 31st trade deadline approaches.
Why the change?
“It’s a seller’s market, so there are fewer teams that are looking to trade established major league players for prospects,” Huntington said. “The impatience of the industry. The expectation that you can turn an organization around in a year. Rather than (targeting) the best prospect in the system that may be in A-ball, teams are starting to look for the guy in Triple-A that might have an impact in a year or two.”
Posted: July 13, 2015 at 08:20 AM | 0 comment(s)
Tuesday, July 07, 2015
The older age is improved and empowered by the new age, the new age buoyed by the eyes, ears, experience and human understanding of the traditionalists. Scioscia and DiPoto should have worked. Did each make mistakes? Probably. But while Moreno is running his own businesses, he needed to define the Angels organization and, instead, sometimes making capricious decisions (like Josh Hamilton) and not having a clear, defined structure, created confusion.
This is not about stat freaks and baseball men, it’s about how the a billion dollar business has to be structured and run. Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio talked about how Marge Schott wanted to be in on every decision, and the drifts that created. Similarly, Moreno preferred what he saw as his own traditional company model, and the result is that there were no partners, there was little collaborative thought and now Bill Stoneman, the first and fourth of Moreno’s general managers, is out looking for number five.
for his generous support.
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