Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Phil Birnbaum doesn’t like dWAR. Soon, if MLB allows researchers to access their new fielding data, dWAR for current seasons will be calculated in an entirely different manner.
Posted: May 26, 2015 at 06:49 AM | 27 comment(s)
Monday, May 18, 2015
Thursday, April 23, 2015
The art of sabermetrics—first brought to the mainstream by Michael Lewis’ 2003 book, Moneyball—is, essentially, the math of baseball. Since the book’s publication, a new breed of baseball personnel—such as the Cubs’ Theo Epstein (formerly of the Red Sox) and Boston’s Ben Cherington—have followed in Oakland A’s general manager and Moneyball star Billy Beane’s footsteps, and the way a winning team is built has changed fundamentally.
The most crucial statistic to understanding the sabermetrics revolution is WAR, or wins above replacement. It also might be the most complicated metric to understand. The above video is as simple as possible a breakdown of what the stat means and why it’s important.
Posted: April 23, 2015 at 04:43 PM | 6 comment(s)
Tuesday, March 03, 2015
No, this is not the OTP thread.
Pierre and Dunn are the John Adams and Thomas Jefferson of their generation. They rose to prominence around the same time, became the focal points of rival factions, and, in their declining years, saw their differences reconciled. And finally, they exited the stage almost simultaneously, having left us in a far different place philosophically than we were when they arrived.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Finally, with regard to defense, I’ve made no attempt even to estimate something along the lines of runs saved. Instead, I’ve utilized only a rough approximation of each player’s positional adjustment — which figures one can derive (following the application of some minor arithmetic) from the Steamer projections available at the site.
Having first calculated and then found the sum of those first three figures (i.e. Bat, BsR, and Def), I then also added the replacement-run total [(PA / 600) * 20] for each player. The sum of all those numbers divided by the number of runs per win (10 is a fine estimate) provides a rough WAR figure for any player….
• By this methodology, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant produced the highest WAR figure in all the minors last year. That he is also regarded as one of the top-two or -three prospects in baseball appears to be not a coincidence.
• Among all minor leaguers who recorded at least 100 plate appearances, Detroit shortstop prospect Manuel Joseph produced the highest WAR600 figure, recording a 4.2 WAR in 252 plate appearances at the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League — equivalent to a 10.1 WAR in 600 plate appearances. Talented Cubs prospect Kyle Schwarber finished second by this measure, at 9.5 WAR600.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
This has been a subject I’ve been looking at recently. It seems like it’s the new in thing in team building. Can’t get great players? Stock your bench with really good backups to try to pick up extra value when injuries crop up.
So if you’ve been wondering why Steamer seems to like the Red Sox so much, depth is a huge reason. It’s not just the talent at the top of the roster. It’s that, when a starter isn’t playing, someone else pretty good should be playing. Most obviously, you can see this in the outfield, where Hanley Ramirez, Rusney Castillo, Shane Victorino, and Mookie Betts will combine at three positions, but based on Steamer you can almost construct a pair of complete lineups of 1+ WAR players. There’s just one player missing from the second team, and then consider that five teams have no more than eight position players overall projected for 1+ WAR. Some players on the Red Sox, surely, will under-achieve, but right now they seem well-equipped to deal with performance or injury adversity
Monday, December 29, 2014
Some interesting info from Neil Paine.
It also bears noting that, because of MLB’s economic structure, the market price for hot stove players is higher than the average amount that teams generally pay per win. When we hear about the cost of a win in these contexts, it generally refers to a player’s value on the open (free agent) market, and when teams are bidding against each other, this framework does a good job of predicting what free agents will be paid for the WAR they’re expected to generate. But MLB also has an underclass of young, homegrown players who are not paid anywhere near what their value would be on the open market, and those players are the true bargains upon which championship foundations are laid.
Posted: December 29, 2014 at 10:09 AM | 0 comment(s)
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