Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

War Newsbeat

Monday, September 08, 2014

10 Degrees: Why WAR doesn’t always add up

Do not consider the following a declaration of war on WAR as much as an invitation for its greatest adherents in the sabermetric community to practice what they preached to the mainstream media during baseball’s analytical revolution: Please do better.

...

During our Twitter back-and-forth, Cameron asked for a solution. The clear one seems to be wait for better data until weighing fielding numbers equally with batting ones, but WAR doesn’t exist that way, and it’s not going away. Another suggestion was to regress the numbers, both individually within a particular season and over multiple years by position, so that the plus defenders are rewarded but not with the sort of confidence currently placed in the defensive metrics.

Regress data that has high uncertainty?  You mean like you would actually do if you were interested in the best answer and not just projecting false confidence in your metric?  That’s crazy talk.

 

Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 08, 2014 at 04:21 AM | 342 comment(s)
  Beats: war

Monday, July 14, 2014

Alex Gordon: The Eugene Cernan of the 2014 MLB All Star Game

Full disclosure, this writer works for me on another site. Also full disclosure: Alex Gordon is my favorite player, and Eugene Cernan is my favorite astronaut.

Alex Gordon, on the other hand, is a little bit more like Eugene Cernan, the 24th—and last—man to walk on the moon. Maybe you’ve heard of him, but probably not. “The 24th Man to Walk on the Moon” doesn’t have much musicality to it. His achievement is far from being as historical as Armstrong’s, but still, he’s been to the ####### moon ... and you haven’t. Similarly, Gordon isn’t a record-breaking super-deity like Trout or Cabrera, but he is one of the best players in the game….

Most of Gordon’s value comes from his seemingly unethical arm strength and his superb range in left field. Maybe that’s a knock on his All-Star credentials to some, since the metrics that inflate the defensive hemisphere of WAR are volatile. Is it more volatile than the BABIP-tethered merits of batting average, or the number of times a ball lands on the other side of a fence? Maybe, maybe not. The volatility of those metrics tends to average out over the span of a few years, and since Gordon began seeing regular playing time in left field in 2011, only Trout, Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen, Robinson Cano, and Ben Zobrist have produced more wins according to FanGraphs. Like Gordon, most of Zobrist’s value comes from defensive metrics. In fact, the two players are almost indiscernible, yet Gordon doesn’t have quite the same ironically notorious reputation for being underrated.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 10:44 AM | 27 comment(s)
  Beats: alex gordon, mike trout, royals, war

 

 

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogESPN Suspends Keith Law From Twitter For Defending Evolution
(158 - 6:54pm, Nov 24)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2014
(1051 - 6:54pm, Nov 24)
Last: PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth)

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(4384 - 6:51pm, Nov 24)
Last: The Id of SugarBear Blanks

NewsblogRed Sox trying for mega-free agent double play: Panda and Hanley - CBSSports.com
(151 - 6:51pm, Nov 24)
Last: Squash

NewsblogStanton Losing About $141 Million of Record Deal to Taxes - Bloomberg
(58 - 6:51pm, Nov 24)
Last: BDC

NewsblogBig Unit, Pedro, Smoltz headline Hall of Fame ballot
(30 - 6:40pm, Nov 24)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(77 - 6:38pm, Nov 24)
Last: andrewberg

NewsblogOT: NFL/NHL thread
(8661 - 6:30pm, Nov 24)
Last: JL

NewsblogSandoval agrees to Red Sox deal, as Boston looks for free agent sweep - CBSSports.com
(30 - 6:26pm, Nov 24)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogFemale Sportswriter Asks: 'Why Are All My Twitter Followers Men?' | ThinkProgress
(157 - 6:25pm, Nov 24)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogRays name managerial finalists: Cash, Ibanez, Wakamatsu | Tampa Bay Times
(15 - 6:13pm, Nov 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogJosh Willingham to retire
(1 - 6:01pm, Nov 24)
Last: Win Big Stein's Money

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-24-2014
(15 - 5:47pm, Nov 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOT:  Soccer (the Round, True Football), November 2014
(458 - 5:36pm, Nov 24)
Last: Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine

NewsblogSources: Kyle Seager nearing $100 million extension with Mariners - Yahoo Sports
(29 - 5:17pm, Nov 24)
Last: toratoratora

Page rendered in 1.3266 seconds
74 querie(s) executed