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Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Adam Dunn, Juan Pierre, and Why We Need WAR «

No, this is not the OTP thread.

Pierre and Dunn are the John Adams and Thomas Jefferson of their generation. They rose to prominence around the same time, became the focal points of rival factions, and, in their declining years, saw their differences reconciled. And finally, they exited the stage almost simultaneously, having left us in a far different place philosophically than we were when they arrived.

Jim Furtado Posted: March 03, 2015 at 06:31 AM | 34 comment(s)
  Beats: adam dunn, juan pierre, sabermetrics, war

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Fangraphs: Last Year’s Minor-League WAR Leaders, If That Existed

Finally, with regard to defense, I’ve made no attempt even to estimate something along the lines of runs saved. Instead, I’ve utilized only a rough approximation of each player’s positional adjustment — which figures one can derive (following the application of some minor arithmetic) from the Steamer projections available at the site.

Having first calculated and then found the sum of those first three figures (i.e. Bat, BsR, and Def), I then also added the replacement-run total [(PA / 600) * 20] for each player. The sum of all those numbers divided by the number of runs per win (10 is a fine estimate) provides a rough WAR figure for any player….

• By this methodology, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant produced the highest WAR figure in all the minors last year. That he is also regarded as one of the top-two or -three prospects in baseball appears to be not a coincidence.

• Among all minor leaguers who recorded at least 100 plate appearances, Detroit shortstop prospect Manuel Joseph produced the highest WAR600 figure, recording a 4.2 WAR in 252 plate appearances at the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League — equivalent to a 10.1 WAR in 600 plate appearances. Talented Cubs prospect Kyle Schwarber finished second by this measure, at 9.5 WAR600.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 29, 2015 at 04:45 PM | 20 comment(s)
  Beats: kris bryant, minor leaguers, prospects, war

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

A Quick Attempted Measure of Team Depth | FanGraphs Baseball

This has been a subject I’ve been looking at recently. It seems like it’s the new in thing in team building. Can’t get great players? Stock your bench with really good backups to try to pick up extra value when injuries crop up.

So if you’ve been wondering why Steamer seems to like the Red Sox so much, depth is a huge reason. It’s not just the talent at the top of the roster. It’s that, when a starter isn’t playing, someone else pretty good should be playing. Most obviously, you can see this in the outfield, where Hanley Ramirez, Rusney Castillo, Shane Victorino, and Mookie Betts will combine at three positions, but based on Steamer you can almost construct a pair of complete lineups of 1+ WAR players. There’s just one player missing from the second team, and then consider that five teams have no more than eight position players overall projected for 1+ WAR. Some players on the Red Sox, surely, will under-achieve, but right now they seem well-equipped to deal with performance or injury adversity

Jim Furtado Posted: January 13, 2015 at 09:20 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, sabermetrics, steamer, war

Monday, December 29, 2014

Baseball’s Hot Stove Season Offers More Sizzle Than Substance | FiveThirtyEight

Some interesting info from Neil Paine.

It also bears noting that, because of MLB’s economic structure, the market price for hot stove players is higher than the average amount that teams generally pay per win. When we hear about the cost of a win in these contexts, it generally refers to a player’s value on the open (free agent) market, and when teams are bidding against each other, this framework does a good job of predicting what free agents will be paid for the WAR they’re expected to generate. But MLB also has an underclass of young, homegrown players who are not paid anywhere near what their value would be on the open market, and those players are the true bargains upon which championship foundations are laid.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 29, 2014 at 10:09 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics, war

Monday, September 08, 2014

10 Degrees: Why WAR doesn’t always add up

Do not consider the following a declaration of war on WAR as much as an invitation for its greatest adherents in the sabermetric community to practice what they preached to the mainstream media during baseball’s analytical revolution: Please do better.

...

During our Twitter back-and-forth, Cameron asked for a solution. The clear one seems to be wait for better data until weighing fielding numbers equally with batting ones, but WAR doesn’t exist that way, and it’s not going away. Another suggestion was to regress the numbers, both individually within a particular season and over multiple years by position, so that the plus defenders are rewarded but not with the sort of confidence currently placed in the defensive metrics.

Regress data that has high uncertainty?  You mean like you would actually do if you were interested in the best answer and not just projecting false confidence in your metric?  That’s crazy talk.

 

Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 08, 2014 at 04:21 AM | 342 comment(s)
  Beats: war

 

 

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