Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

War Newsbeat

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Reframing WAR at Fangraphs

Update: An earlier bug that impacted updated pitcher WAR has now been resolved. The pitcher tables below have been updated to reflect that. Thanks to everyone who pointed out the issue!

I’m very pleased to announce that FanGraphs has finally added catcher framing data to the site, with full thanks to Jared Cross, who you may know as the co-creator of the Steamer projections. We’ve also incorporated catcher framing into WAR.

Including catcher framing in WAR has been a topic of internal debate at FanGraphs for the past half-decade. The problem has never been with the inclusion of framing numbers on the catcher side of things. That’s a fairly simple addition. The problem has always been what to do with the pitchers. For instance, the 2011 Brewers were some 40 runs above average in catcher framing. When you add those 40 runs to catchers, do you subtract 40 runs from pitchers? As it turns out, you do, but those runs are not attributed equally to each pitcher

Bote Man Posted: March 20, 2019 at 03:17 PM | 184 comment(s)
  Beats: fangraphs, framing, pitch framing, war

Tuesday, February 05, 2019

Should baseball go to a pay-for-performance model?

On top of the base pay, a player would be owed $4 million per WAR based on his performance that year. The antiquated arbitration system which rewards service time over production would be completely eliminated. There would be no reason to game the system for service time (except to move back free agency and that could be remedied somewhat by making it either 5.5 or 6.5 seasons of service time to be eligible for free agency). There is also no reason why you couldn’t have a player’s base pay go up as soon as he hits the service time threshold, even if it is in the middle of a season.

So for a player like Whit Merrifield in his second year of service time, he would have a base pay of $500,000, but would get in effect, a bonus at the end of the year based on his 5.2 WAR, an amount that would total $20.8 million for a total salary of $21.3 million. Could there be possible sticker shock for teams that see they have to suddenly pay a player $20 million at the end of the year? Perhaps. But teams can mitigate some of that volatility by offering more long-term deals, like the one Merrifield received. Only now those players will have more leverage to get something closer to market value.

What about veterans who have reached free agency and are enjoying guaranteed contracts? They can still enjoy guaranteed contracts, but teams should be encouraged to move to a more incentive-based model. Right now, teams are not allowed to offer contracts based on performance-based incentives, instead the only incentives allowed to be offered are for playing time (i.e. $1 million for reaching 500 plate appearances) or receiving awards.

A Baseball Fan Posted: February 05, 2019 at 07:49 PM | 13 comment(s)
  Beats: donald fehr, labor, war

Thursday, November 08, 2018

Tomase: Overreliance on WAR may have hurt J.D. Martinez in AL MVP vote that’s going to be won by Mookie Betts | WEEI

Take this year’s AL MVP race. Betts led the league in WAR, will win the award, and deserves it. Hard to argue with Trout or Ramirez, either, based on performance, though I’m certainly open to the idea of an MVP coming from a winning team, and not Trout’s sub-.500 Angels.

But there are other deserving candidates whose WAR won’t give them a sniff. Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez is one of them. For five months, he flirted with the Triple Crown. Because he’s mostly a DH and no better than an average fielder when he does don a glove, he never had a chance, though his 5.9 fWAR is roughly in range of Ramirez.

Some advanced stats make a case for Martinez, such as his weighted runs created (170, 3rd), base-out runs added (73.36, 1st), win probability added (5.4, 3rd) and . . . there’s no need to lose ourselves any further in those weeds.

“There’s no need to lose ourselves any further in those weeds”? The **stats** he uses ignore defense and baserunning.

WAR isn’t perfect. While I agree people shouldn’t simply use WAR to rank players for award voting, Tomase’s case is extremely weak and unconvincing.

Wins Above Replacement—all
1. Betts • BOS 10.9
2. Trout • LAA 10.2
3. Chapman • OAK 8.2
4. Ramirez • CLE 7.9
  Lindor • CLE 7.9
6. Snell • TBR 7.5
7. Bregman • HOU 6.9
8. Sale • BOS 6.9
9. Martinez • BOS 6.4
10. Verlander • HOU 6.3

Jim Furtado Posted: November 08, 2018 at 08:54 AM | 26 comment(s)
  Beats: analytics, j.d. martinez, war

 

 

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Tuque
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogWeekend OMNICHATTER! for April 20-21, 2019
(1 - 12:18pm, Apr 20)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread, v.2019
(1201 - 12:08pm, Apr 20)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogOT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)
(157 - 11:55am, Apr 20)
Last: puck

NewsblogHarding 'Pete' Peterson: General manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates during its World Series triumph, 'a brilliant baseball mind,' started as Rutgers catcher
(12 - 11:53am, Apr 20)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogFrustration with MLB umpires growing again after series of heated confrontations
(6 - 11:31am, Apr 20)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogJustin Verlander wants to be the Tom Brady of baseball
(3 - 11:19am, Apr 20)
Last: puck

NewsblogMan Sues L.A. Dodgers for More Than $2 Million, Alleges Security Guards Attacked Him ‘Unprovoked’
(2 - 10:40am, Apr 20)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogYankees sign Logan Morrison, who once beefed with Gary Sanchez and called their fans 'stupid'
(3 - 10:37am, Apr 20)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogThe Official Mets Fan Self-Immolation Thread
(872 - 9:36am, Apr 20)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

Sox TherapyWe Can Be Concerned Now
(52 - 8:42am, Apr 20)
Last: villageidiom

NewsblogPhiladelphia CBP Seizes Counterfeit Bryce Harper Jerseys
(3 - 7:43am, Apr 20)
Last: Padraic

NewsblogExclusive: Giants acknowledge it’s finally time to explore moving in the fences at Oracle Park – The Athletic
(46 - 6:27am, Apr 20)
Last: Hank Gillette

NewsblogPithy comment, pithy comment, OMNICHATTER! for April 19, 2019
(85 - 2:06am, Apr 20)
Last: JAHV

NewsblogFrom 'blimp folder' to Foot Locker: Fake jobs MLB players use to fool fans
(28 - 1:01am, Apr 20)
Last: greenback slays lewks

Gonfalon Cubs2019 Season Predictions
(90 - 12:26am, Apr 20)
Last: Meatwad

Page rendered in 0.7740 seconds
54 querie(s) executed