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Tuesday, January 13, 2015

A Quick Attempted Measure of Team Depth | FanGraphs Baseball

This has been a subject I’ve been looking at recently. It seems like it’s the new in thing in team building. Can’t get great players? Stock your bench with really good backups to try to pick up extra value when injuries crop up.

So if you’ve been wondering why Steamer seems to like the Red Sox so much, depth is a huge reason. It’s not just the talent at the top of the roster. It’s that, when a starter isn’t playing, someone else pretty good should be playing. Most obviously, you can see this in the outfield, where Hanley Ramirez, Rusney Castillo, Shane Victorino, and Mookie Betts will combine at three positions, but based on Steamer you can almost construct a pair of complete lineups of 1+ WAR players. There’s just one player missing from the second team, and then consider that five teams have no more than eight position players overall projected for 1+ WAR. Some players on the Red Sox, surely, will under-achieve, but right now they seem well-equipped to deal with performance or injury adversity

Jim Furtado Posted: January 13, 2015 at 09:20 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, sabermetrics, steamer, war

Monday, December 29, 2014

Baseball’s Hot Stove Season Offers More Sizzle Than Substance | FiveThirtyEight

Some interesting info from Neil Paine.

It also bears noting that, because of MLB’s economic structure, the market price for hot stove players is higher than the average amount that teams generally pay per win. When we hear about the cost of a win in these contexts, it generally refers to a player’s value on the open (free agent) market, and when teams are bidding against each other, this framework does a good job of predicting what free agents will be paid for the WAR they’re expected to generate. But MLB also has an underclass of young, homegrown players who are not paid anywhere near what their value would be on the open market, and those players are the true bargains upon which championship foundations are laid.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 29, 2014 at 10:09 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics, war

Monday, September 08, 2014

10 Degrees: Why WAR doesn’t always add up

Do not consider the following a declaration of war on WAR as much as an invitation for its greatest adherents in the sabermetric community to practice what they preached to the mainstream media during baseball’s analytical revolution: Please do better.

...

During our Twitter back-and-forth, Cameron asked for a solution. The clear one seems to be wait for better data until weighing fielding numbers equally with batting ones, but WAR doesn’t exist that way, and it’s not going away. Another suggestion was to regress the numbers, both individually within a particular season and over multiple years by position, so that the plus defenders are rewarded but not with the sort of confidence currently placed in the defensive metrics.

Regress data that has high uncertainty?  You mean like you would actually do if you were interested in the best answer and not just projecting false confidence in your metric?  That’s crazy talk.

 

Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 08, 2014 at 04:21 AM | 342 comment(s)
  Beats: war

 

 

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