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Monday, January 04, 2016

Baseball Prospectus | Caught Looking: Declaring openWAR

I really wish people would stop reusing the name WAR for their creations. It just confuses people. As for this version, I believe there is a place for a context laden player omnistat. bWAR and fWAR really shouldn’t be used for MVP discussions.

While openWAR is unlikely to move the sabermetric community toward an agreed-upon measure of WAR, the authors of the model have set an admirable standard for transparency and reproducibility. There will still be those who prefer a measure stripped of all context, and the openWAR approach is perhaps better suited for MVP voting than forecasting. But for those who wish to take issue with some elements of their approach, Baumer, Jensen and Matthews have provided a framework and source code that can be built upon.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 04, 2016 at 10:10 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: openwar, sabermetrics, war

Monday, November 16, 2015

The strain of WAR you use can dramatically affect your perception of a player - Beyond the Box Score

Calling them all the same name is confusing. When Bill James came up with Runs Created, every alternative runs formula creator didn’t call his creation the same name.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 16, 2015 at 11:12 AM | 36 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics, war

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Sullivan: The Extra Value of Having an Elite Reliever

It couldn’t be cleaner. We were missing about 1.7 wins. Through Clutch, we located about 1.7 wins. This appears to explain the over-performance, but given the consistency, it shouldn’t be thought of as over-performance; it should be thought of as a team capability, that WAR misses.

This is evidence that having a shutdown high-leverage reliever can be worth more wins than WAR would suggest. And this is just in the regular season, so we’re not touching on any further benefits in the playoffs. When you have that reliever, you can make sure to use him at the most important times, saving close games and putting out assorted other fires. I think it’s entirely intuitive, so this probably isn’t a shocking result. This doesn’t get into deeper bullpens. And I might be overlooking a bias or two that explains what’s been found. Very well could be there are going to be comments below that make me out to be an idiot, but if they’re right, I’ll appreciate them, since I’d love to have more than one brain considering this.

Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 11, 2015 at 11:46 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: clutch, leverage, relief pitching, sabermetrics, war

 

 

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