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Friday, January 13, 2017

Payoff for long-term deals a mixed bag | MLB.com

Tracy Ringolsby looks at the history of 10+ year contracts.

The intention is good.

An organization reaches out to a high-profile player, provides him with long-term security, looking to show its fan base a commitment to success.
It, however, is a gamble.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 13, 2017 at 07:09 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents, long-term contracts

The many reasons why Sandy needs to move Bruce for good of Mets - NY Daily News

You trade a player when you feel you are getting a fair return (a debatable value). Alderson’s patience isn’t a flaw.

We’ll see about all of that in Port St. Lucie. For the moment, the priority is unloading Bruce. It doesn’t mean Alderson was wrong to be patient, waiting for the logjam of free-agent sluggers to clear and perhaps leave some team in need of Bruce’s power.

The Blue Jays, for example, still seem like a viable trade partner, but only if they don’t wind up re-united with Jose ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: January 13, 2017 at 07:03 AM | 15 comment(s)
  Beats: jay bruce, mets

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Mets, Zack Wheeler Avoid Arbitration, Agree On $800K Deal

Zack Wheeler and the Mets have avoided arbitration by agreeing on a one-year, $800,000 contract for this season.

WFAN baseball insider Jon Heyman reported on the deal Wednesday.

Wheeler, 26, has not pitched in the majors since 2014. The right-hander tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm and underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2015.

Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 12, 2017 at 02:03 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: mets, zack wheeler

Do the Orioles and Mark Trumbo really want a reunion this offseason? | FOX Sports

Trumbo recently asked the O’s for a three-year, $50 million contract, but later indicated that he would sign a deal of the same length in a lesser $40 million to $50 million range, according to major-league sources.

The willingness of Trumbo to accept a three-year deal below $50 million — after the two sides reportedly discussed four-year contracts at higher guarantees earlier this off-season — would at least appear to create room for negotiation. The Orioles made Trumbo an ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 11:47 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: mark trumbo, notes, orioles

We assigned cooler names to old players to get them into the Hall of Fame

His career ERA+, however, was 104. To put it another way, if Tim Lincecum comes back and pitches for five seasons at an Ervin Santana level, he’s basically the modern day Catfish Hunter. Yet, there’s no way Lincecum would get the same kind of Hall of Fame support that Hunter did. What’s the difference?

My theory is that Catfish Hunter was one of the best baseball names ever, and it added to the mystique whenever he came to town and blew your team away. Scott Kazmir (who also has a career ...

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RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:50 AM | 91 comment(s)
  Beats: catfish hunter, hall of fame

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 1-12-2017

Pittsburgh Gazette Times, January 12, 1917:

Bill Fischer, who is expected to do a large share of the Pirate catching next season, is going about things in a manner suggesting he intends to be Callahan’s first-string maskman.
...
The former Cub has taken on 14 pounds since he put away his glove and mask and he takes his gain in weight as an indication that he will have a successful season, barring accidents.

“In 1915,” says Fischer, “I reported 10 pounds overweight and had my best season. I had ...

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Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:32 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: dugout, history

Gordo: Cardinals stockpiling trade chips for Mozeliak | Jeff Gordon | stltoday.com

The Cardinals aren’t dead yet.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:17 AM | 5 comment(s)
  Beats: cardinals

Drew Anderson hoping to make quick rise through Phillies’ minor league ranks | PhillyVoice

After watching Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and others graduate to the big leagues in the last two seasons, the Phillies will be eager to see the next wave of young pitching make their own case for a chance to call Citizens Bank Park home in 2017. Anderson was one of seven pitchers added to the 40-man roster in mid-November, along with Mark Appel, Ben Lively, Ricardo Pinto, Nick Pivetta, Alberto Tirado, and left-hander Elniery Garcia.

Anderson probably isn’t likely to ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:15 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: phillies

Checking in on Chase Utley’s Hall of Fame chances

Better argument than I could have made, and he’s my favorite Phil since Schmidt, but I guess he comes up short…

Utley was part of the core that led the Phillies during the most successful period in their history and to a championship. He may not have hit 58 home runs or stole more than 40 bases in a season like Ryan Howard or Jimmy Rollins, but he was arguably the most valuable part of that team. Utley is worth 63 career WAR, the highest among 2007-2011 Phillies not named Roy Halladay ...

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eddieot Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:03 AM | 81 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, phillies

Joe Maddon focuses on one word for Chicago Cubs’ 2017 message - Chicago Cubs Blog- ESPN

The word is not “sandwich”.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 09:29 AM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: cubs, joe maddon

Maness a trailblazer? New surgery for elbow repair cut recovery time | St. Louis Cardinals | stltoday.com

When Seth Maness shut his eyes before a surgeon opened his right elbow, the former Cardinals reliever was not sure what awaited him on the other side of sleep. The troublesome ligament in his throwing arm had to be fixed and a complete reconstruction would mean missing an entire season.

He went under unsure.

He woke up a potential trailblazer.

Maness is a week away from returning to the mound and expects to be ready for opening day, just 7½ months after surgery, because Dr. George Paletta ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 09:10 AM | 3 comment(s)
  Beats: tommy john surgery

Why did the Mariners trade touted pitching prospect Luiz Gohara?

Gohara followed his breakout 2016 season at Class A by indeed throwing extremely well in the AFL, striking out 19 in 11 2/3 innings. Some scouts look at his 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and see a young CC Sabathia.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 06:21 AM | 32 comment(s)
  Beats: braves, luiz gohara, mariners

Mariners Add Intriguing Arm in Shae Simmons | FanGraphs Baseball

That’s a lot of walks.

The Mariners hope he can hone his delivery and command, which have been inconsistent. He walked more than six per nine during two minor-league rehab stops last season. But he’s limited opponents to 11 walks in his brief 28 innings of major-league work to date, and his stuff appears to be intact, if not improved, following his injury.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 12, 2017 at 06:20 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: mariners, shae simmons

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

NON-ROSTER INVITEE THREAD

It might be good to have an all-purpose NRI thread. Who has your team brought in? I’ll start with the Phillies who unsurprisingly mostly have prospects, with only Pedro Beato, Pedro Florimon, and Daniel “Pedro” Nava in the “hopeful journeyman” category.

The notable prospects who were invited to camp were SS J.P. Crawford, 1B Rhys Hoskins, OF Andrew Pullin, 2B Scott Kingery, and RHP Victor Arano. It will be Crawford’s second invite to camp, and he is widely expected to take over as the ...

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Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 11, 2017 at 11:40 PM | 10 comment(s)
  Beats: nris, phillies

Okay, Now the 2017 Mariners Are Interesting | FanGraphs Baseball

I agree.

Steamer has Smyly projected for +2.5 WAR in 164 innings, while ZIPS came in at +2.0 in 143 innings, so both projections have Smyly as a quality pitcher when he’s on the mound. There are definitely durability concerns, given that he missed most of 2015 with shoulder problems and chose to rehab rather than have surgery, but a healthy Drew Smyly is a pretty good starting pitcher. And he’s replacing close-to-replacement-level arms, bumping Ariel Miranda or Chris Heston from the ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:18 PM | 8 comment(s)
  Beats: mariners

Former Giants closer Casilla nearing deal with A’s - SFGate

Athletics buying low.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 08:24 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Beats: athletics, giants, santiago casilla

Mariners make 2 trades to land Drew Smyly | MLB.com

Dealing Dipoto makes another one two.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 05:17 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: drew smyly, mariners

Rangers Get Cheap Price On Cuban Infielder Luis Yander La O | BaseballAmerica.com

Luis Yander La O? Is that really his name? My database might not like him.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:41 PM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: cuban free agents, rangers

Hall of Fame: Why Tom Verducci won’t vote for steroid users | SI.com

Some people don’t know how to use a check book. That doesn’t mean nobody should have a checking account.

Wins Above Replacement

Like RBIs and saves, Wins Above Replacement is a semi-junk stat. Bill James has no use for it, yet some writers wield it incessantly. It is a measurement of nothing. It is an approximation, an attempt to roll everything about a player into one number. So it’s useful as a rule of thumb, like walking off the distance between two points and using your strides to ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:20 PM | 125 comment(s)
  Beats: hall of fame, steroids

Cameron: The Market for Offense Might Be Overcorrecting

And we probably haven’t seen the last of deals like this. If Rasmus can only get $5 million, and no one would take Seth Smith at $7 million, how does Brandon Moss ask for significantly more? What kind of offers are Carter and Pedro Alvarez going to get in a world where similar hitters with better defensive abilities are settling for cut-rate contracts just to land a job.

On the one hand, we could look at deals like this and think that perhaps the market has decided to pay less than the ...

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Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:10 PM | 22 comment(s)
  Beats: free agency, markets, moneyball, sluggers, tulips

Maness a trailblazer? New surgery for elbow repair cut recovery time

Maness is a week away from returning to the mound and expects to be ready for opening day, just 7½ months after surgery, because Dr. George Paletta performed a repair that could eventually prove to be an alternative to Tommy John surgery for select big-league pitchers. Until the St. Louis-based orthopedic surgeon saw inside Maness’ elbow, he wasn’t sure if Maness was a candidate to be the first established major-league pitcher to receive the new procedure, Paletta said.

Now, the doctor ...

Read More...
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:58 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: cardinals, seth maness, tommy john surgery

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 1-11-2017

Joe Tinker tells a story about Larry McLean, Seattle Star, January 11, 1917:

“McLean caught the Sunday games. Then he went to a party. He did not report Monday at all. Tuesday morning he was a sight.”
...
[After a foul tip broke replacement catcher Clark Griffith’s finger in the first inning of the first game of a Tuesday doubleheader,] “Griffith had no one to put in but McLean. To my dying day I will remember how McLean looked as he came across the field. He fell over his protector three times ...

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Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:50 AM | 17 comment(s)
  Beats: dugout, history, larry mclean

Jose Bautista is waiting, and it’s costing him money - Beyond the Box Score

This doesn’t suggest an optimistic outcome.

The results fit the narrative, largely. In sum, this group signed for 20% less than projected, a bigger negative gap than the crowd has tended to display on all free agents collectively. The crowd did a remarkably good job of predicting the high-end free agents in the aggregate, with some big misses in both directions balancing each other out. When compared to the pool of free agents as a whole, where the high-end free agents beat their projected ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:28 AM | 12 comment(s)
  Beats: free agents

2016 Platoon Advantage | Exploring Baseball Data with R

Some interesting research on platoons.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:14 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: sabermetrics

MLB Now: Bill James Segment

Great MLB Now show yesterday with a great panel. I liked the Bill James segment, particularly this exchange. The ephemeral nature of value for players is often lost on public analysts. IMHO, one of the next big things for sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus would be adding a real-time value for players which incorporates factors like injuries and scouting-type reports for all major league and minor league players. Teams like the Astros and Cardinals already employ such systems. ...

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Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:00 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: analysis, player evaluation

Yankees, Masahiro Tanaka have not discussed contract extension - NY Daily News

“We have a significant contract with Masahiro Tanaka,” Cashman said Tuesday night at the opening of Orangetheory Fitness in Manhattan. “Hopefully he has a great year, and then he’ll have a decision to make. If he doesn’t, then he won’t. I think he pitched like a Cy Young award candidate last year, and I certainly hope he does so again this year. But at this point we’ve had no discussions internally to pursue any kind of extension.”

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 08:28 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: masahiro tanaka, yankees


Here’s hoping there’s more roster moves to come from Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto | The Seattle Times

Maybe for regular fans, not to us. (And that’s not the royal we.)

That’s the optimistic way to look at the additions of outfielder Jarrod Dyson and pitcher Yovani Gallardo, on top of the offseason acquisitions of infielder/outfielder Danny Valencia, left-handed reliever Marc Rzepczynski, catcher Carlos Ruiz, outfielder Mitch Haniger and right-handed starters Rob Whalen and Max Povse.

Nothing too sexy — some of those names might not even ring a bell — but, at least theoretically, they’ve ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 07:13 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: jerry dipoto, mariners

David Ortiz Reportedly Hasn’t Expressed Interest In World Baseball Classic | Boston Red Sox | NESN.com

Dear Red Sox fans,

He’s not coming back.

Your friend,

Jim

It seems David Ortiz is enjoying his retirement. The former Boston Red Sox designated hitter has been appearing in a multitude of commercials, and despite his cliffhanger tweet Monday night, it appears he’s not planning on returning to the diamond. Not even to play for his home country.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 07:11 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: david ortiz, red sox

Luis Robert Leaves Cuba, With Clock Ticking Before New Rules Begin | BaseballAmerica.com

Luis Robert, one of Cuba’s best young prospects, is out of the country. Due to Major League Baseball’s new international rules, the timing of when Robert gets cleared to sign will have significant ramifications on how much he will get paid and which teams will be able to sign him.
...
But if Robert isn’t cleared to sign by June 15, he will be subject to the more restrictive hard cap of the new international signing rules. After June 15, there is a two-week “closed period” in which no ...

Read More...
Jim Furtado Posted: January 11, 2017 at 07:02 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: cuban free agents, luis robert

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