BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: ESPN.com - MLB/SPRING2004

I'm checking out this program. How does the archive function work?

This reminds me, I need to get the travel guide updated given these off-season moves.

Steve Phillips may not be the most honorable man (given the marital scandal he was involved in two years ago), but he has actually done a terrific job as the Mets' general manager. He managed to pull off the Mike Piazza deal without giving up an exorbitant amount of talent in return, signed Robin Ventura as a free agent, made the deal to acquire Mike Hampton (who helped the Mets get to the World Series), and showed some creativity in making the three-way trade with the Dodgers and O's that brought in Armando Benitez as a replacement for the overrated John Franco.

I also applaud Phillips for having the courage to stand up to Scott Boras and his demands. Based on all that I've read and the sources that I've talked to, I firmly believe that Boras did make all of those silly demands of the Mets--without Alex Rodriguez' knowledge. Yes, it would be great to have A-Rod, but every negotiation has its limits.

I'm not a Mets fan, but I'd be surprised if they don't make the playoffs this season. I also believe that Phillips will make a deal either during spring training or during the regular season to bolster the weakest link of the team. He has been an aggressive trader in-season (making deals for Bubba Trammell, Rick White, Kenny Rogers, and Shawon Dunston, among others) each of the last two years.

Epstein may be trying to write an appropriate level for his ESPN.com audience. He must feel like he's just arrived at the point where he doesn't have to redefine standard deviation each time he writes an article.

Rivera would be a great backup outfielder on a pennant contender. He can do it all defensively, plus he has enough speed to be utilized as a pinch-runner. (A great fit for the Yankees, given the continuing problems that Shane Spencer is having with his surgically repaired knee and the lack of a bonafide backup to Williams in center field) Just don't let him get more than 150 at-bats or so.

As a follow-up, the NY Post reports that the Yankees are very interested in signing Rivera. They are hoping that he clears waivers, which will allow the Yankees to sign him for the major league minimum.

I think a guy with speed who can get on base (and Rickey still does that quite well) - as Sean said - will almost always be a productive bench player.

Al Martin is 33, and it's not clear to me that he'd have more value than Henderson coming off the bench. Why didn't the M's at least invite Henderson to camp and let him compete for the 5th OF job ?

Piniella says he wanted him back - so it's unlikely to be a personality conflict issue.

Sorry, not Sean - it was JamesFraser who said Henderson would be a useful bench player. My apologies.

Quick clarification: Cedeno had nothing to do with the card game; I realize the sentence could be read that way. My fault for the awkward syntax. I was just mentioning that it's known that Rickey had a mentor/student relationship with Cedeno while both were Mets, and it seemed to work well for Cedeno.

G

I noticed over the past few years that there are more and more guys getting into this mentor/sub/PH/bench role on young teams as their careers taper off. I'm assuming it's always been so, but I've become more aware of it lately. Paul Molitor did it with the Twins for a year or two, Tim Raines is trying it in Montreal now, and I could see Tony Gwynn in that role once his knees drive him out of a full time role. (Hey, maybe they signed Mark Grace to mentor the kids in AZ...) It's funny thinking of someone with a reputation like Henderson's becoming a mentor, but you can't argue with his knowledge of the game and he might be motivated to accept such a role given his current prospects.

Anyway, I think if I were a GM embarking on a youth movement I'd grab one or two senior players to nursemaid the youth and set some example. I'm kind of surprised that FL and MON and the like haven't done more of this, like MN getting Molitor or Stienbach. If it's a good idea to bring in old alums in spring training, and adding experience and maturity is what many teams do for a stretch run, why not do more of it all year long if you know you won't win, your kids could learn something, it won't cost much and the guy won't absorb much playing time?

In 1999 Oakland had a bunch of kids (1300+ AB born after 1975), and they had Doug Jones and Billy Taylor in the pen with Randy Velarde, Tony Phillips and Tim Raines in the field. It may have been economics, but only Jones was with the team at the end of 2000, so I think a case could be made that once the students had snatched the pebbles from the hand it was time for the masters to move on.

Sean,

Yes, Sax did recover, and hopefully so will Wohlers, but there are many more players who never got over the hump. From a personal experience, I played with a guy in college who came down with this problem. He was a pitcher whose problems began with pickoff drills. It got so bad that he couldn't even pitch the ball into the 15X15 hitting cage. Yet, he worked and worked and got back to the point where he started a game and threw a complete game victory. I cannot remember the specifics of his numbers but I am certain he let up less baserunners than innings pitched. Anyway, we all thought he was going to be fine. Then, 3 days later, he was to throw BP and he was a mess again. He never got back to the point where he was BP ready never mind game ready.

Knoblauch has made some comments about his errors that tell me he is reaching for any excuse other than the mental aspect. Either his feet weren't set or he didn't pick up his target or he just rushed it. In my opinion, and I do hope I am wrong, he is just denying the truth of the matter. Like Yogi says, "Baseball is ninety percent mental"

A young Rob Deer?

I don't think you are giving the stolen base it's due. The ability to take a walk and turn it into double is sone of the many little things that win games. Of course, it doesn't translate that way in slugging percentage but nonetheless, the stolen base puts the man in a position to score on a single. Also, the stolen base takes away the double play threat. The tailor made ground ball to second base then moves the runner to third. One out with a man on third is entirely different than two outs with nobody on.

The stolen base does not compare with the extra base hit obviously. However, the little things like the stolen base and moving runners along do win ball games and every win counts. The fact that there are 162 games should not diminish that.

You seem pretty confident that Canseco'll make the Hall. Maybe the late '80's bash brother, but I think for the last decade he's more considered the guy with the pitching injury who you're lucky to get 100 games out of, so has to live year to year on incentive-laden contracts. He's below average on HOF Standards and barely over 100 on the HOF Monitor. My guess is he hovers over 50% of the ballots for a while, but never crosses the magic 75. Not a likely candidate for the veteran's committee either. At least I'd put him a few notches below Blyleven.

The problems Knoblauch is having is strictly mental, which makes it exactly like those before him. I don't see the relevance of whether he is a pitcher or not. The common theme is the inability for a major league ballplayer to make simple throws. The story I told was intended to show that these kind of mental obstacles do not go away, even when it seems it has been overcome. Everyone, including the player, will be waiting for the other shoe to drop.

I wouldn't expect Knoblauch to be in the field for too many games during the season.

Historical precedent, although limited, is actually in Knoblauch's favor. Sax did recover from his problems, while Murphy was able to move to another position (center field) after struggling as a catcher. If Knoblauch cannot find his way at second base, he can be moved to left field. Now some might question whether he would hit enough for a corner outfield position. That would depend on whether he hits like he did in 2000 (unacceptable) or pre-2000 (acceptable). Given that quality leadoff men are harder to find today than middle-of-the-order power hitters, I'd still want Knoblauch on my team in some capacity.

Bruce,

I agree. Knoblauch still has value as a leadoff hitter. I feel his defensive problems have distracted him at the plate as his numbers dipped slightly. Even still, he is the best option for the Yankees at leadoff. Hiding him in left field is certainly an option but that just avoids the problem rather than cure it. If that kind of move would relax him at the plate, perhaps he could approach the pre-2000 numbers and New York would then benefit. As a long time Red Sox fan, I hope Knoblauch continues to struggle at the plate. As a baseball fan, I hope he can turn it around.

Does this guy get paid to write ?

I defy anyone to explain the following sentence to me:

"Now if Kevin Malone spent most of his time in Chicago and visited once every summer while we were on vacation, maybe I'd look at the Dodgers differently."

It's interesting the writer calls Cruz an undisciplined hitter, citing his 129 Ks.

I have to agree with Sean here. Knobby is a different kind of hitter than Hill and Rodriguez. At his best, or even 85 percent, he carries as much value as Hill or HRod. Will he get back to that level is the question.

This column is weird and is a terrible analysis of the Dodger's problems. He takes shots at their 2 best players Gary Sheffield and Kevin Brown and ignores all the terrible moves they have made in recent years. They signed Devon White, Carlos Perez, and Andy Ashby to multiyear contracts. They traded away Mike Piazza. They should be grateful that the Orioles exist to make them look good. This is typical of the stupidity of the average sportswriter. However, this is an extreme example.

Here's another point on Knoblauch being an offensive asset as a left fielder. If he played in the outfield every day, his offensive numbers would probably be better than they would be if he played second base, due to the difference in wear and tear between the positions. Generally speaking, a player who plays an up-the-middle position is going to sacrifice some offense because of the physical demands of that position. Left field, although a new territory to Knoblauch, would be physically less demanding once he made the initial adjustment.

I'll take the offense that Knoblauch--pre-2000, anyway--provides any day of the week. Shane Spencer hasn't had enough ML playing time for us to determine whether he would provide as much offense as Knoblauch.

If it turns out that Knoblauch can't play left field either, then the Yankees will move Jeter into the leadoff role and Jorge Posada into the No. 2 spot. The Yankees can still win with that combination (Jeter's OBP was well over .400 last year), but they'd rather let Posada bat lower in the order so as to have more RBI opportunities.

One other point on this: Knoblauch is no hero by "allowing" the Yankees to move him to another position. At some point during the era of free agency, some fans and media members conceived this notion that players had to approve a shift in position, even when it became obvious that the shift was clearly in the best interest of the team. (One of the first times that I remember this becoming a really big issue was when Dave Winfield was "asked" to move from one outfield position to another in the mid-1980s.)

It's Knoblauch's job to play--and Torre's job to put him where he feels he would help the team the most. My goodness, with the patience that Joe Torre and the Yankees have shown with Knoblauch (and I am sympathetic to the mental block that he is trying to overcome and the effort that he has put forth), he should be happy that they are trying to make him fit into their lineup wherever possible.

I don't think we can assume that Knoblauch would make a lightning transition to LF. I suspect it might take him a month or two to get really comfortable out there.

Even if the Yanks don't lose much (or anything) on offence with Knoblauch vs Hill/Rodriguez, I'd bet there'd be at least a slight loss in outfield defence. And when the ball goes into the LF corner, it's a pretty long throw to the cut off man. From the power alley it's even longer - what's he going to do, wait until Bernie gets there ? If the guy isn't accurate throwing 60-80 feet to first base, what about throws from LF ?

Hey, he is a decent hitter so maybe they will put him out in left field.

...and a caught stealing removes a runner from the basepaths and costs the team an out, thereby short circuiting big innings and losing ballgames, and every loss counts...but anyway. Interesting that SLG is brought up here; there's an adjustment I make sometimes that seems to value basestealers more appropriately. I simply add stolen bases minus 2*CS to total bases before I figure SLG...theoretically weird, sure, but a stolen base turning a single or walk into a double has close to the same effect as turning a single into a double otherwise (with no one else on base, anyway).

Monday, July 20, 2009

SABR 39!

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