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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

10th anniversary: Giambi-Mabry trade

Thanks for the kind words, Chris “Freaking” Jaffe!

On May 22, 2012, the Oakland A’s sent Jeremy Giambi to the Phillies for John Mabry, and in doing so threw an enormous loop to many who supported A’s GM Billy Beane and what he stood for.
...
Lastly, speaking as a sample size of one, this trade really helped cement a sense of an online sabermetric community. Many of us nerds were stunned by it while for most baseball fans the trade was a complete afterthought. The trade literally helped create a community, as the thread for it at Baseball Think Factory was a turning point for that site. Giambi-Mabry was it’s coming out party, and BTF remains the leading watering hole for baseball’s nerd herd.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:21 AM | 65 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: meta, sabermetrics, site news

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   1. caprules Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4137594)
That and the first Edgar HoF thread are my two favorite threads of all time.
   2. JE (Jason) Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4137602)
Reviewing that thread now...
40. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: May 22, 2002 at 08:41 PM (#118062)
I'm totally dumbfounded. . . That being said, as I read this thread - am I the only one reminded of Whitey Herzog's Keith Hernandez for Neil Allen trade? (And that was shortly after Keith's co-MVP award). The general theory about that was that Whitey found out about Keith's coke habit, and wanted that out of his clubhouse ASAP. I've even heard it argued Herzog intentionally got too little for Keith to send a message to any other users or potential users on the team that this would not be tolerated. . . I know Jeremy's been busted for pot, maybe he does other stuff? Then again, maybe Beane's the one smoking pot. JOHN MABRY?!?
   3. zonk Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4137606)
PETCO... the answer to any thread question is PETCO.

   4. Dread Pirate Dave Roberts Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:55 AM (#4137609)
On May 22, 2012


May want to fix that....
   5. John Northey Posted: May 22, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4137638)
Always fun to look back.

Mabry as an A: 122 OPS+ then left as a free agent
Giambi as Philly: 162 OPS+ then traded for Josh Hancock, played one more year in majors with an 81 OPS+ then 26 more games in minors and that was it.

Hancock had 12 IP for the Phillies before being traded for Todd Jones & minor leaguer (threw 25 IP for Phillies).

So the two guys hit better than expected once traded, but after that 1/2 season provided nothing of value either via trade or actual play.
   6. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: May 22, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4137667)
Post #83 in the thread says there were over 230 comments. Where do the others go?

First they came for the Piazza posts, and I said nothing
   7. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4137713)
Post #83 in the thread says there were over 230 comments. Where do the others go?

I think people that didn't register had their posts later thrown out.

I strongly remember the Mabry-Giambi thread beginning with someone saying, "well, let's not get too carried away trying to determine who wins this trade. That's the sort of question Win Shares was designed to answer." Something like that - but it's gone now.

WHen that thread began, posts weren't numbered. They became numbered because of that thread.

   8. phredbird Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4137716)
i can't believe how far i haven't come since then.
   9. Guapo Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4137722)
From the always helpful BTF Wiki, here is a better version of the Giambi/Mabry thread courtesy of the Wayback Machine.

Link

Note that even Sarah Palin was dumbfounded by this trade.
   10. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4137725)
Thanks for the link, GUapo.

So my memory of the first post was incorrect.
   11. Guapo Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4137731)
Posted 2:37 p.m., May 23, 2002 (#397) - A's Fan
A huge question mark is suddenly placed against the mental state of Billy Beane after his sudden trade of Jeremy Giambi.

Has the extraordinary pressure he applies to himself and all those around him professionally finally carried him over the top? Has the GM become power-crazed and impossibly intolerant of anybody who he believes has fallen below his own standards?

The profile is of a man obsessed with success, who has literally become maddened by his failure to get his hands on the pennant that has eluded him.

There is no doubt that Beane is in great turmoil - but this is not a man who has lost his wits. It is a supreme professional who has looked around and been angered by what he sees as a shortfall of professionalism around him.

The basic truth is that Beane is suffering from rage. A rage to win. An insistence that nothing is left to chance in the pursuit of that goal.

Any judgment of Beane's behaviour now has to be balanced against the reality of his place in the game. It is an extraordinary one he has fashioned for himself. It does not speak, it yells of commitment.

We also have to remember that Beane has no sense of public relations or celebrity. He does not think in terms of image. He thinks just about the margins between victory and loss. He is a supreme loner - and he knows more clearly than most of today's professionals what it takes to win.

So what does Beane do? Given his nature, he will march on, breathing fire.

There is a by-product of this, though, that the A's, A's fans and all of Beane's potentially damning critics must not forget. It is that as Beane racks up the demands on himself, he also raises his expectations of all those around him.

No, Billy Beane hasn't gone mad. He has simply reached breaking point. How well he comes back from it depends on the depth of his own will - and the ability of the A's and staff to at least begin to meet their GM's own amazing standards.


That's like the freaking first scene in "Patton," man.
   12. Guapo Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4137732)
Posted 6:49 p.m., May 23, 2002 (#470) - Jonathan
++that's the part of it that bothers me: not that he might have had to trade Giambi for non-baseball reasons, but that he didn't, or didn't care to, make it look good.++ -Joe Sheehan

Theory #3562 - Occam's Razer is Dull. It's conspiracy theory time.

Beane has been ordered by the A's ownership to tank the season. (Either to force the stadium issue or more likely to strengthen the owner's bargaining position by eliminating the strongest case for "small-market success".)

Disgusted by this directive, he sends down Pena, Menachino & Tam, thinking "this is so obviously out of character for me that the snoops will come out of the woodwork and all will be brought into the open." (Pena's demotion was - if nothing else - more surprising than Blalock's. Pena had shown greater ability to function at the ML level. The Beane A's are known for patience with young talent.)

It doesn't work. Beane is driven to desperate measures. He has to do something so painfully out of character that there will be no question but that something is going on behind the scenes. (After all this is not only a bad trade, it is completely opposite to his philosophy as revealed through many years of track record.)

Ok, like any conspiracy theory, this one's probably wrong. But it does seem to fit the facts as we know them. I'm more inclined to think Beane would do something to protest ownership than something to destroy a player's reputation (deserved or otherwise.)

I also will point out that Beane implied he would have given Jason Giambi the no-trade clause, but was blocked by ownership on that move.
   13. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: May 22, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4137743)
Graham Koonce! Esteban German! Adam Piatt! Those were the days...
   14. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4137761)
PETCO... the answer to any thread question is PETCO.

I've said this before, but PETCO is Aaron (or Bonds, I guess now) while Giambi-Mabry is Ruth. Before Giambi-Mabry, threads rarely got more than a couple dozen posts. A few one-off comments, but never in depth discussion. G-M shattered the length in a way that we just hadn't seen before. G-M showed that the community could support a lengthy discussion. Sure, other threads have passed it for length since then, but G-M showed that long threads could work. I mean, after a bit people went meta and started commenting on the length of the thread.

And I'll agree with Chris on the sense of community. When I heard about the trade, my first thought was, "I've got to get on Primer and see what people are saying." That's when I realized what this place was. I never thought that about the Neyer board or anyplace else.
   15. zonk Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4137766)
I'd say PETCO remains Aaron -- the recent Starlin Castro thread is Bonds... So which thread is Shea Hillenbrand?
   16. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4137767)
And I'll agree with Chris on the sense of community. When I heard about the trade, my first thought was, "I've got to get on Primer and see what people are saying." That's when I realized what this place was. I never thought that about the Neyer board or anyplace else

Yep. That was my first reaction, too. And then over the next few days there was another recognition. For most baseball fans, this was page 11 news. It was a dull nothing of a transaction. While for me & my people it was National Trauma Time. Not only did it rally primates together, but it also differntiated us from the rest. "Ah, these are my people" I could think when going to Primer.
   17. JJ1986 Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4137777)
So which thread is Shea Hillenbrand?


This one.
   18. zonk Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4137785)
Heh... I knew it was the groin thread before clicking.
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4137792)
Not this one?
   20. vortex of dissipation Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4137794)
That and the first Edgar HoF thread are my two favorite threads of all time.


I don't think any thread matches "The Death of Derek Jeter".
   21. JJ1986 Posted: May 22, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4137802)
   22. zonk Posted: May 22, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4137813)
This is mine - have to go via the wayback because I think the original has been eaten...

One the choicer deep cuts from that album...

Posted 2:08 p.m., October 9, 2003 (#68) - C. Montgomery Beane and Waylon Neyer

Neyer: People like dogs Mr. Beane.
Mr. Beane: Nonsense! Dogs are idiots! Think about it, Neyer. If I came into your house and started sniffing at your crotch and slobbering all over you, what would you say?
Neyer: If *you* did it, sir?
   23. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 22, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4137839)
Homer: How come you never made the World Series Moe?

Moe Beane: Ah, probably the fact that I lost nine consecutive series clinching games. That and politics, its always politics.

Homer (angrily): Lousy Democrats!
   24. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 22, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4137864)
I love meta Primer threads. Dunno why. Most of my favorite threads are threads about people's favorite threads.
   25. Steve Treder Posted: May 22, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4137997)
Thanks, Guapo! What a gas to read through that one.
   26. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 22, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4138002)
I think people that didn't register had their posts later thrown out.

All the witty pseudonyms lost for posterity? The horror!
   27. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 22, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4138030)
Oh, how I've wasted my life.
   28. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4138051)
Graham Koonce! Esteban German! Adam Piatt! Those were the days...


.340/.450/.688 in 1999.. and he didn't even lead the TL in OPS, Erubiel Durazo did- .403/.498/.695
   29. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4138071)
That's great

Posted 4:02 p.m., October 9, 2003 (#118) - Grandpa Beane
We A's haven't won a World Series since nineteen dickety nine. We had to say Dickety then because Steinbrenner had stolen our word for eighty.
   30. RJ in TO Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4138081)
Thanks, Guapo! What a gas to read through that one.

Actually, it's a gas to read through this one.
   31. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4138085)
Giambi as Philly: 162 OPS+ then traded for Josh Hancock, played one more year in majors with an 81 OPS+ then 26 more games in minors and that was it.



The reason that was it:

Final Game: April 28, 2007
Died: April 29, 2007 in St. Louis, MO (Aged 29)
   32. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4138087)
Mabry as an A: 122 OPS+ then left as a free agent
Giambi as Philly: 162 OPS+ then traded for Josh Hancock, played one more year in majors with an 81 OPS+ then 26 more games in minors and that was it.


Around here, Giambi was awful because he only hit .244.

This is one of three "steal" trades of Ed Wade where he seemingly fleeced another GM, but where it didn't work out so well. The others were Eric Milton for Carlos Silva, Nick Punto and someone else whom I can't remember and Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada.

I was no fan of Wade, but he just couldn't catch a break either while he was GM in Philly.
   33. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: May 22, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4138093)
This one was great obviously but for me the strongest 'I've got to get to Primer to see the meltdown' moment ever was when I heard about Kasmir for Zambrano. Oh, good times.
   34. Swedish Chef Posted: May 22, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4138100)
   35. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 22, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4138156)
This is one of three "steal" trades of Ed Wade where he seemingly fleeced another GM, but where it didn't work out so well. The others were Eric Milton for Carlos Silva, Nick Punto and someone else whom I can't remember and Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada.

These made up for the trade of Carlton Loewer and Adam Eaton for Andy Ashby, which made everyone incandescent with rage but turned out to be not so bad. Partially because Loewer's career was ruined soon afterwards when he broke his leg falling out of a hunting blind.
   36. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 22, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4138157)
It's funny to read so many people in that Giambi thread talking about how Jeremy was only going to get better as a hitter - even though he was about to turn 28. At the time, he had fewer than 400 PAs remaining in his major league career.
   37. frannyzoo Posted: May 22, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4138178)
Post #25 in "The Death of Derek Jeter" is the greatest post I've ever read here. And it's embarrassing to consider the number I've read over the past twelve or so years. So much time wasted...but not on #25 from Guapo. Solemn nod of head. Well done.
   38. zonk Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4138239)
Lots of great work in the Jeter thread - but yes, Guapo's was the first and the best in heady competition.
   39. McCoy Posted: May 22, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4138297)
My favorite threads are the Calcaterra threads.
   40. baudib Posted: May 22, 2012 at 10:37 PM (#4138312)
My feeling at the time was that the Giambi trade was no big deal (basically correct) and that Zambrano would be as good or better than Kazmir for 2-3 years (awful).
   41. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: May 22, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4138330)
While we're on the subject of favorite threads...

Game Six
   42. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: May 22, 2012 at 11:40 PM (#4138337)
While we're on the subject of favorite threads...

Game Six


Beginning in post #928, I rank how the 2011 Series would score in my system if nothing else heppened.

In Post #928, the 2011 Series ranked #51 of alltime.

Then it kept going up and up and up.

Post #976: 49th best Series ever
Post #987: back down to #51
Post #1290: 33rd best ever
Post #1565: 32nd best Series ever
Post #1656: 18th best World Series ever
Post #1826: 5th best World Series ever

The power of one game pushed the entire Series up that high.
   43. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: May 22, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4138341)
Last year, the forum software mysteriously banned me and deleted all my posts. I am therefore free to claim that I posted extremely funny things in every legendary thread, but they just don't show up anymore.
   44. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 22, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4138342)
Last year, the forum software mysteriously banned me and deleted all my posts. I am therefore free to claim that I posted extremely funny things in every legendary thread, but they just don't show up anymore.

Free Monty!
   45. PreservedFish Posted: May 23, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4138365)
Thank you for posting this. It's silly, but this was an exciting time.
   46. The District Attorney Posted: May 23, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4138376)
So what would be the closest 2012 parallel?

Allen Craig for Greg Dobbs?
   47. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 23, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4138378)
How good did Mabry look in a pair of jeans? Mmmmmmmmmm!
   48. Walt Davis Posted: May 23, 2012 at 04:25 AM (#4138389)
One of the things I wrote was:

Giambi must have (1) inherited Dennis Eckersley's locker and (2) slugged Art Howe and (3) been caught in bed with both Beane's daughters for this one to make any sense

Man 10 years ago is a long time. Can anybody explain my first joke to me? And does Beane have two daughers?
   49. Guapo Posted: May 23, 2012 at 09:22 AM (#4138435)
Wow, thanks frannyzoo and zonk. High praise!
   50. Baldrick Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4138449)
Oh my god, it's been 10 years. Wow.

Sadly, I was posting under a different name then (I don't even remember what it was), so my posts are lost to history.

I still remember it clearly. I had just got home from college and was about to leave the next day for a backpacking trip across Europe. And I was sad I wouldn't be able to read all the Primer snark while I was gone.
   51. zonk Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4138455)
In the area of game chatters -

Last year's 162 mash-up was awesome, but I'll still take the 2008 all-star chatter.
   52. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:38 AM (#4138459)
So what would be the closest 2012 parallel?

Allen Craig for Greg Dobbs?


It would have to be by today's equivalent of Billy Beane now that he's no longer with us.

Brett Lawrie for Ryan Ludwick.
   53. McCoy Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4138465)
Bryan LaHair for Xavier Nady
   54. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4138471)
This one was great obviously but for me the strongest 'I've got to get to Primer to see the meltdown' moment ever was when I heard about Kasmir for Zambrano.


Mine was the Francoeur trade to the Mets.
   55. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 23, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4138472)
While we're on the subject of favorite threads...

Game Six


Going back and reading through it the thing that strikes me is that my comments don't read like me. Anytime I go back and read old threads I read stuff and immediately recognize my "style." The madness of that night had me posing in a way that left my comments unrecognizable without looking at the name. Not in a bad or good way, just a bit manic. (I imagine a look at the Game Thread for 162 would be pretty similar).
   56. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: May 23, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4138533)
I've been thinking more about the 2012 parallel. We'll split the difference and say Brett Lawrie for Xavier Nady.

You have to have the team with the GM everyone thinks is a genius, trading away someone who seems to have massive talent and has a built-in appeal specific to his team (brother of Jason Giambi ... today, a Canadian on the Blue Jays), but may have a bad attitude and is underperforming at the moment (Giambi was even worse defensively than promised; Lawrie has great defensive stats but has a .685 OPS despite a .320 BABIP).

And trade him for someone who is just over 30, versatile defensively but is basically a pinch hitter and has been on so many teams recently that it's clear they could have gotten him for almost nothing. Xavier Nady fits this description better than Ryan Ludwick.

Of course Lawrie is currently 5 years younger than Giambi was at this time ten years ago. Allen Craig is the same age Giambi was, but doesn't seem to have any interesting personal dynamics either positive or negative.
   57. JJ1986 Posted: May 23, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4138542)
Maybe David Freese for Nady. He's got the World Series Hero appeal and is 29 years old. And now he's being benched by the Cards.
   58. Guapo Posted: May 23, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4138565)
The Colby Rasmus trade had some interesting parallels to Giambi-Mabry.

The 2012 equivalent would be Logan Morrison for Jeff Baker.
   59. PreservedFish Posted: May 23, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4138631)
Look, there's no possible parallel today. There's no GM that is held in as much reverence as Beane was.
   60. SoSH U at work Posted: May 23, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4138638)
Look, there's no possible parallel today. There's no GM that is held in as much reverence as Beane was.


The only real parallel would have had to happen elsewhere. Imagine the reaction two years ago at Fangraphs if Seattle swapped some hitter with upside for an older player with limited ability. Of course, you also have to imagine these Mariners having a hitter with upside instead of an entire roster of limited-ability position players, and that may be harder to do.

   61. Blubaldo Jimenez (OMJ) Posted: May 23, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4138851)
Found this jem in the WWII/civil war thread:


BBC goes to command the Southern Front:
my HOTTT aide and driver, commander Summersby Ausmus brings me the port-a-phone
General Gray, it's your Husband on line 1. AGAIN!!! sez one of the Dogss ate the kidz homework and the Dog won't eat the mustard to make him barf. what should he DOOOOOOOOO?



I might have to get a dog just so I can name it Commander Summersby Ausmus.
   62. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 23, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4138871)
There's no GM that is held in as much reverence as Beane was.


There's no cult of personality around Friedman, but the Rays doing something like the Giambi-Mabry trade would have a similar feeling to it, I suspect. What would the equivalent be? Like . . . ditching Matt Joyce for, uh, uh, uh . . . uh . . . nope, I got nothing.
   63. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 23, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4138889)
I went into one of those old threads and found that I was given the option of editing one of my posts.... from FOUR YEARS ago.

I should go in and add, "By the way, I think Jose Bautista's really going to turn it around one of these days. I think he could be one of the best hitters in baseball."
   64. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: May 23, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4138922)
There's no cult of personality around Friedman, but the Rays doing something like the Giambi-Mabry trade would have a similar feeling to it, I suspect. What would the equivalent be? Like . . . ditching Matt Joyce for, uh, uh, uh . . . uh . . . nope, I got nothing.


I think Joe Maddon having Ron Washington outmanage him in the ALCS is the best parallel. I don't mean just outmanage him but I mean just completely, utterly, make him his ##### with Maddon redoing the "lose the DH" thing from a couple of years ago and somehow ending with Josh Hamilton getting a walk off homer against Luke Scott or something like that.
   65. The District Attorney Posted: May 23, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4139044)
Never mind, found the answer to my question.

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