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oh, wait.
JUST DAWSON?
Blyleven: 74.2%
Alomar: 73.7%
I believe that well more than 10-12% of the regular STARTING players in the 1920s made the HOF.
For example in 1925, 103 players had 400+ PAs
*31* of those players are now in the HOF
in 1960, 99 players had more than 400+ PAs
*17* of those players are in the HOF
in 1980, 181 players had more than 400+ PAs
*17* of those are now in the Hall (Dawson will make it 18)
That's just position players
Five blank ballots knock out Bert, right?
Wow, wtf?
How many more votes did Blyleven need?
Bert Blyleven 400 (74.2%),
Roberto Alomar 397 (73.7%),
Jack Morris 282 (52.3%),
Barry Larkin 278 (51.6%),
Lee Smith 255 (47.3%),
Edgar Martinez 195 (36.2%),
Tim Raines 164 (30.4%),
Mark McGwire 128 (23.7%),
Alan Trammell 121 (22.4%),
Fred McGriff 116 (21.5%),
Don Mattingly 87 (16.1%),
Dave Parker 82 (15.2%),
Dale Murphy 63 (11.7%),
Harold Baines 33 (6.1%),
Andres Galarraga 22 (4.1%),
Robin Ventura 7 (1.3%),
Ellis Burks 2 (0.4%),
Eric Karros 2 (0.4%),
Kevin Appier 1 (0.2%),
Pat Hentgen 1 (0.2%),
David Segui 1 (0.2%),
Mike Jackson 0,
Ray Lankford 0,
Shane Reynolds 0,
Todd Zeile 0.
405 needed for election. Bly missed by 5, Alomar by 8.
limiting inductees is fine
character seems to trump stats
@!$#@#@!#@#@# Marriotti.
Jay Marriotti is a first ballot, inner circle Hall of #########.
Still... I think this all but ensures Bert goes next year (he'd better). While I think Dawson is a borderline case, I always liked him and won't gnash any teeth that he's in.
As for the morons that have this stupid "first ballot" nonsense...
Wow, that's a pretty big miss on Robbie (Bert, not so much). Did all the first-year guys come in a lot lower than Repoz's tally?
Right. There would have had to have been more than 625 voters for the five blank ballots to have an effect of less than 0.8%.
-- MWE
Heyman saying stupid things, as usual.
Andre Dawson 420 (77.9%)
Bert Blyleven 400 (74.2%)
Roberto Alomar 397 (73.7%)
Jack Morris 282 (52.3%)
Barry Larkin 278 (51.6%)
Lee Smith 255 (47.3%)
Edgar Martinez 195 (36.2%)
Tim Raines 164 (30.4%)
Mark McGwire 128 (23.7%)
Alan Trammell 121 (22.4%)
Fred McGriff 116 (21.5%)
Don Mattingly 87 (16.1%)
Dave Parker 82 (15.2%)
Dale Murphy 63 (11.7%)
Harold Baines 33 (6.1%)
Everyone else is off the ballot, who the $#()*! voted for David Segui?
Andres Galarraga 22 (4.1%), Robin Ventura 7 (1.3%), Ellis Burks 2 (0.4%), Eric Karros 2 (0.4%), Kevin Appier 1 (0.2%), Pat Hentgen 1 (0.2%), David Segui 1 (0.2%), Mike Jackson 0, Ray Lankford 0, Shane Reynolds 0, Todd Zeile 0.
Well, he would have had to have been named on all 5. MLB.com graphic says he missed by 5 votes. Removing 5 non-Bert voted doesn't put him in.
But to just end up with Dawson.... wow.
Come on. The Hawk just got the first few of about 10,000 phone calls and gets the induction day to himself.
Man, Repoz's tally really seemed to miss this whole chunk, outside of maybe Lee Smith and Edgar. I'm really disappointed in Morris's and Raines's performances (in opposite directions). (and Larkin, but debuting >50% should still mean election in the next 2-3 years)
Eh, no different than All-Star selection day. Come induction day, the Hawk will have his day (as it turns out, without sharing the spotlight).
In fact, it puts him at 74.9%.
Yes, this is the Hall of Nice Guys Who Happened to Play Baseball, right?
I stand by my original statement. Blyleven being interviewed on MLB network right now.
Probably a writer who appreciated his candor about his steroid use.
Anyhow, the tally was off by an average of 4.7% this year. On a purely mercenary note, that means I beat it. Yeay, me.
It's actually more striking in raw vote totals. His 128 is the exact same number of votes as he got in both 2007 and 2008 (he got 118 last year).
He's going in. He'll likely have to wade through the 2013-14 glut, so it might take a while.
5.67 votes/ballot this year.
Bert Blyleven 11.5%
Andre Dawson 10.9%
Jack Morris 8.3%
Tim Raines 7.8%
Alan Trammell 5.0%
Don Mattingly 4.2%
Lee Smith 2.8%
Mark McGwire 1.8%
Dave Parker 0.2%
Harold Baines 0.2%
Dale Murphy 0.2%
Now I don't get to hear Andy explain McGwire's increase.
Neat. Turns out my official prediction for a McGwire increase was correct after all: 23.6% to 23.7%.
Done and done.
It's got to be frustrating to have to keep waiting, but I'd imagine that he realizes that he basically just received a letter of intent from the voters.
2013 will be Dale Murphy's final year on the ballot. Could he be the first person in I don't know when to fail to reach 5% on his final year on the ballot?
The old fart vote strikes again!
The three that were really off were...
Alomar - Spitting
Raines - Cocaine
McGwire - Stroids
The decrepers who no longer have a newspaper, don't know wtf a blog or solid food are...refuse to vote for these fellows.
Thirded, though - if I could offer up one machine enhancement, it should have the ability to put a foot up Jay Marriotti's ass.
Nothing that a slope corrector won't fix.
Nope.
The gloat votes are already trickling in..
I agree. Thanks, Repoz!
Right. There were 539 voters; Blyleven got 74.9% of the non-blank ballots.
-- MWE
Don't forget Don Larsen's one WS game in 1956!
Oh, they didn't! Larsen got 53 votes in 1979.
Despite the voting instructions specifically saying not to cast a vote for a particular feat ("No automatic elections based on performances such as a batting average of .400 or more for one (1) year, pitching a perfect game or similar outstanding achievement shall be permitted"), Larsen lasted the full 15 years on the ballot, getting 492 votes total.
That's 3 more ballot appearances and 300 more votes than Will Clark, David Cone, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Dave Stieb, Ken Singleton, Bret Saberhagen, Willie Randolph, Darrell Evans, and Dwight Evans ever got, combined.
Guys who did better in the balloting: Morris, Lee Smith, Mattingly, Parker
Dawson, McGriff, and Murphy were effectively a wash.
The first group is largely players who are lauded by the posters here, and the second group gets little support. It appears that voters who are willing to publish and discuss their ballots are somewhat more in agreement with the sabermetric community than those who keep theirs secret.
Those writers should have had their ballots taken away from them. Seriously. Larsen in the HOF would have made Rube Marquard look like Cy Young.
I would have loved to hear their excuses for voting for him without appearing to break the rules, though.
You can't take a historical number like that and apply it to a one-year sample. Hall of Famers have longer careers than other players, so the fraction of HOFers who are active at any given time will be higher than their historical proportion of the population.
Yeah, the real question is what percentage of games, or what percentage of seasons, have been played by HOFers. I suspect that's higher than 1%.
That's because the first group doesn't have to make up reasons to vote or not to vote for a candidate as much as the second group has to.
No. Well yes, if you don't know when means last year
edit: And Dave Parker will do it next year.
Huh? Tommy John got well over 5%
2009 168
2008 238
2007 211
2006 220
2005 206
2004 208
The average is 208.5 newbies per year. Applying the percentage determined earlier (1.43%) we would expect 2.98 hall of famers to debut each year.
How long is the career of the average hall of famer? I don't know; maybe 17 years for those debuting in the last 80 years and giving credit for war service, it's something like that. So we should expect about 50 (2.98 times 17) currently active players to make the Hall.
Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Larry Walker, and others...
Without studying it too much, I would vote for Bagwell, Walker, Brown, and Palmeiro. But I couldn't do that, since I'd also vote for Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Trammell. I don't know which two I would cut. Maybe Palmeiro for one. Not sure about the other. If the damn BBWAA would elect enough people, I wouldn't have this problem.
EDIT: In practice, if I were an actual HoF voter, the other guy I'd cut would probably be Alomar, since I'd figure that he'll get enough anyway. But I don't like to think about it like that.
Nope.
The gloat votes are already trickling in..
well--we can make some scratch calculations: Repoz had Alomar getting 110/125 of those who published their choice (88%)
he ended up with 397/539, which means, of those ballot NOT available to Repoz, he got 287/414 or 69.3%
Alomar, Bagwell, Blyleven, Brown, Larkin, Martinez, McGwire, Raines, Trammell, Walker
Palmeiro versus Edgar for the last slot and I'll go with Edgar on a Hall of Fame ballot.
I wonder if Palmeiro will be around to vote for in 2012. He could certainly go off ballot quickly like Grich and Whitaker.
Yup.
I have a vague recollection, from way back in my youth, discussions about whether Larsen was a HoFer or not. Scoff now, but once upon a time there were actually people that thought 9 perfect innings in the WS made you a HoFer.
...which just goes to show that while the writers actually do better overall, given 15 years to pull their heads out their asses, than we generally complain -- there's still a significant number of morons that have difficulty fielding a full roster of neurons.
even with the September call-ups?
Whoops. Misread your question.
Some, like shank and poopy pants, have to ask the umpire to catch... even after the callups.
I had been thinking that this notion was silly - McGwire's not doing well, but he's over 20% after all. But #389 and #391 point out that this is surprisingly likely. In addition to not getting any votes from the anti-steroids crowd, Palmeiro could easily get squeezed off the ballots of a "sabermetric"-inclined voter who prefers peak to career. Even taking his numbers at face value, I could see him pretty easily landing 11th or 12th on my mock ballot next year. Wow.
To me he's deserving.
That said, absent the steroids issue he'd have been an interesting test case for unstoppable projectile meets immovable object: "He didn't feel like a Hall of Famer... but I always vote for players with 3,000 hits and 500 home runs!"
Ditto. Looking at DL's list in 391, I cannot really see anyone from that list I wouldn't slot in front of Palmeiro. I'm more dazzled by shiny career counting numbers than the average primate (and I honestly don't care much about steroids), but the only real options I personally would consider might be Walker or Brown - and I think both were clearly superior players to Palmeiro.
Right now, I don't see Palmeiro cracking my ballot, either.
McGriff's at 20% - I'll bet Palmeiro is under that number.
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