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1. lonestarball Posted: December 09, 2010 at 06:31 PM (#3706858)Kontos will be in the 'pen this coming season and I'm guessin' that Blackwood will be in AA since they already have 2 3B in AAA.
Looks like good pick-ups.
My theory is that this was probably the best way for the Blue Jays to keep Emaus. If Emaus had been added to the 40-man roster, there was a good chance he'd be lost on waivers if the Blue Jays needed a roster spot, and any team that claimed him could simply send him to the minors. By leaving him exposed in the Rule 5 draft, the Blue Jays at least have a chance to get him back if the Mets decide they can't keep him for the entire year.
With 7-man bullpens, it's harder for teams to carry around a bench player who might not be ready yet. Of the 19 guys selected in the Rule 5 draft this year, only three are position players.
And Beato, huh? It looks to me like (maybe) converting him to the bullpen might have found him a home. Sure seems worth a Rule 5 pick to find out -- a second chance on a guy the Mets failed to sign in the 2005 draft.
But, the Rays have big needs in their bullpen this year. Why didn't Rodriguez make their 40 with the potential to make the bullpen out of Spring Training/when someone goes on the DL.
Which isn't to say that he couldn't still be useful to the Mets.
I didn't say he's Dan Uggla. But the kid's had double-digit home runs every full season he's played in the minors, including the not-very-hitter-friendly Eastern League in 2009. He's also averaged 30 doubles. So that's not bad. Like I said . . . nice power. For a second baseman. Again, looked at in the context of the Mets' options? I like the pick a lot.
I predict Elvin Ramirez is the best of this bunch at the end of the year. I like him, Diamond, Aneury Rodriguez and Josh Rodriguez to stick.
I was disturbed to see however that his nice line at Las Vegas only translates to a .229/.311/.369 line at Citi Field. Yes, I checked it twice (doesn't mean I didn't do it wrong twice).
http://minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html
A 22 year old at St. Lucie (barely got to Binghamton for a few innings), who can't throw strikes to save his life? He has an arm, no doubt, and it's always possible that the Mets' organizational problems are a big part of his problems, and that in a different system he'll make a Great Leap Forward. But I sure don't mind the trade of this guy for Beato.
Yep. It's the Rule 5 draft.
Anbody else surprised no one took Wynn Pelzer?
V means 5. Just my II cents.
It would've been nice to see them take a reliever, considering they have like 4 bullpen spots still open.
You do know that the PCL hit .277/.348/.432 and Vegas has a park multiplier of 107????
IOW he played in a 5.6 r/g environment
IOW Emaus' 2010 was nowhere near as good as, oh, Justin Turner's...
But Emaus has had good, productive seasons before 2010, you know. Excellent strike zone judgment, reasonable pop. He didn't suddenly come out of nowhere and do something way out of character in 2010 because of Las Vegas.
As for Turner, he doesn't have anything like the consistent record of minor league success prior to 2010 that Emaus has had. It's not just 2010 that makes me take a more positive view of Emaus. It's the fact that Turner hasn't had as strong a track record.
But hey -- you want to throw Turner into the mix for 2011? OK by me.
Yep. I mean the thing is, none of these guys are very good - there's a reason they're unprotected. You're looking for someone that can show talent in a skill - Ramirez throw very, very hard - and you hope you can polish out their many flaws. Scouts say he's really harnessed his control this winter, and if he can do that, he's got a great shot at sticking.
Emaus looks nice, but I think his defensive limitations will make it hard for him to stay. He basically has to hit his way on the roster, which prior to going to Vegas, he was only mediocre at. Infielders just seem to have a tough time sticking unless they're speedy or gifted defensively, and even then, they often fail to stay. But hey, he's a nice pick for a team like the Mets with an obvious need. You never know, he could go all Uggla on you.
I get this wrong every time....I just don't care enough to remember which it is. I'm happy for anyone who know the correct way and shares that.
Apparently the Cubs only got cash for Josh Hamilton. What for Tobin?
FWIW, Emaus' defensive stats surpass his rep - they suggest he'd be adequate (though not good) on D.
Pelzer: I said in the other thread that he was the only guy that I thought would go (50-55% chance) but didn't.
The only AAA phase guy who jumped out at me was Heath Rollins, who has shown flashes of being able to contribute as a long man / 5th starter (not last year, though).
Yep. It's the Rule 5 draft.
I call it the Rule Five draft
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Adrian Rosario is a decent under-the-radar prospect, as you can see from his strikeout rate, but I don't think he has much of a chance to stick at the MLB level yet.
Anyone have any thoughts on Pat Egan?
I think you want to re-look at their records:
Emaus hit
.228/.298/.316
.302/.380/.463
.253/.336/.376 and
.290/.397/.476
for a .276/.364/.426 career
Turner has hit:
.338/.411/.511
.307/.369/.436
.298/.367/.418
.300/.362/.388 and
.316/.374/.487
for a .309/.373/.442 career
aside from 2010, they've played in similar run environments
Now Turner is a year older, but basically I see Turner as having at least a slight edge with the bat- which means whoever's better comes down to dee- and I don't really know enough to opine on either man's- except anecdotally neither is regarded as a gloveman.
Seems a might bit redundant, but then again I'd take my chances with either over Castillo's
unfrozen corpse
Tuner, Emaus, Russ freaking Adams, Josh Satin, Reese ("Candyglass") Havens...
I mean 2B at Citifield in 2010 was such a bottomless abyss of suck...
Roman numerals are used in the PBA but they are for articles. Article V contains the Uniform Player Rules.
I've seen Emaus and Havens to be basically the same player for awhile now. If Emaus has really chubbed up and slowed down I might prefer Havens a bit at this point but they've both always been decent but fringey average-hit, average-field 2bmen for me.
I don't know how Reese Havens went 22 overall, even if he finally figured some things out his Jr. year.
Is their any site out there that approximates what they do? If so please share. I can find some splits on MiLB's website, but they are incomplete and only shown for the current team. B-Ref and FanGraphs have virtually none.
Well, the Professional Baseball Agreement is a legal document, and there is a Rule 5 and a Rule V and they are very different. As stated earlier, V is the Uniform Player Rules. 5 is in the drafting section. If you are going to refer to a section of a legal document, best to refer to the correct section.
Havens looks a bit better. But that aside, I think Alderson is making all of the right noise now- Mejia and Tejada will be at AAA to start the season. I know Sam's down on Tejada's chances long-term, but I don't think it could hurt to give him some development time and see if he can become a useful major league player. And with what Alderson has said about Reyes, it may be that he views Tejada as a potential cheap replacement-- his bat would play better at SS than at 2B.
<A HREF="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12561"]Kevin Goldstein[/url] gives brief scouting reports on selections.
No - I miss it dearly.
I don't like Egan - all he has is size and an ability to get grounders, right?
So Fallout: NV= Fallout: New 5?
Well...Joakim Soria never pitched above Low A ball, and he turned out OK.
Anyway, is it possible the Pirates now have a SS on their roster who's better than I am?
Well, yes and no. I think his chances are only long-term. Right now, he can't hit nearly enough to be a major leaguer, and the Mets wasted the year he could & should have been developing in the minors allowing him to struggle in the majors. (Of course, some others put faith in his last month, where he hit well, but I just don't.) I am somewhere between agnostic and skeptical on whether he can grow into becoming a real player, but I am certainly glad they are adding players for 2B to make it more likely that Tejada will not be needed at the major league level, and thus have time to spend in the minors where I think he belongs.
As for the comparison (# 25) between Emaus and Turner, I was probably a bit too negative about Turner. But as for Emaus, I think too much emphasis might be being given here to the claim that he was somehow a product of Las Vegas. He hit very well for a 21 year old, middle infielder in the FSL in 2008. No PCL/Las Vegas effect there. He did struggle some in 2009 in AA (New Hampshire, EL), but even there he had a good W/K ratio, and showed some pop. When he started in New Hampshire again the first part of '10, his numbers were very good -- much improved over what they'd been in 2009.
The point is, you can look at that record and see a guy with an interesting, not atypical, and somewhat promising development curve: nice first full season in A ball, hits a speed bump at AA, then emerges on the other side of that a stronger player for having gone through the struggle. In any case, it's a guy I'm glad they took a shot on, and I'll be rooting for him.
I definitely think that Havens is better, though, if he can stay healthy. On this, however, I have no illusions. Only hopes.
Josh Rodriguez can hit, but I'm not sure about his defensive position, and there have been some questions floating around about his work ethic; he missed most of 2009 with a hamstring injury that (by some reports) shouldn't have been bad enough to keep him off the field that long.
Anuery Rodriguez is a pretty generic righty; the times I've seen him pitch I have been unimpressed. If someone found out he's older than his reported age I wouldn't be surprised.
Baltimore picked up Casey Lambert in the AAA phase. Lambert's a small lefty who had TJ surgery and missed a good chunk of last year, but who when healthy possesses a decent fastball and an excellent curve - plus he's a battler. If he's 100% he could help the Orioles at some point.
Lance Pendleton could be a good pickup for the Astros. He's been buried in the Yankees' organization, usually old for his levels, but his stuff is pretty good and he's had decent success with it.
-- MWE
Ah, that's interesting. Tony at IPI had posted some info about Indians personnel making negative remarks about Rodriguez's character, and I wondered what they were referring to.
Some guys have succeeded with less. I'm not a huge Egan fan either, but throwing grounders is a nice skill to have.
Flores is no Soria.
-- MWE
EDIT:
They liked Scott Diamond among the pitchers, by the way.
The BA wrap-up podcast: I thought they were too down on Rodriguez's bat myself (and not just 'cause I sort of touted him on the site a few days back), both from a tools perspective and even (if I heard correctly) getting his stats wrong (he slugged .486 in 317 AB in Columbus, a stronger accomplishment than it sounds). I like Emaus better for, say, 2014 if I'm looking for a future regular, but Rodriguez is more likely to be able to contribute today. I doubt he'll ever be a starting shortstop in this league, but he can handle it in short stints and the bat is okay. He's just an okay guy to have around (presuming he doesn't bust) and will be one for a very low wage for a few years. Nothing wrong with that.
Similarly, I've long liked Aneury as a 5th starter who could become a 3rd or 4th if something clicks.
Agree on Lambert, Mike. As for Pendleton, he's a guy who's never been more than a name for me (which is saying something), but I think I've been wrong about, should have paid more attention.
Egan/"Some guys have succeeded with less."
Oh sure - and this is a class of pitchers I don't think my track record is great on. Still, I wouldn't have picked him.
I'm glad you mentioned the IPI, Vlad - that site/Tony is great.
Language is a medium of communication. Everybody who follows baseball much knows what the "rule V draft" is. Many fewer would recognize the "rule five draft" as quickly.
Well played.
the AAA phase
What is this? I've often heard of it but I don't know how it works. Who is eligible to be chosen, are there rules for keeping them, etc?
Mets 2Bs combined for negative 1.7 WAR last year.
Not a very high bar
OK, 2010, AAA, 3b/ss, 150+ ABs, ranked by OPS+:
Name Age ops+1 Neil_Walker 24 162
2 Steve_Tolleson 26 144
3 Luis_Rodriguez 30 130
4 Justin_Turner 25 129
5 Edward_Lucas 28 128
6 Scott_Sizemore 25 128
7 Robert_Phelps 23 128
8 Donnie_Murphy 27 125
9 Elliot_Johnson 26 122
10 Josh_Rodriguez 25 122
11 Ryan_Rohlinger 26 121
12 Bobby_Scales 32 120
13 Brad_Emaus 24 120
14 Jim_Negrych 25 120
15 Mike_McCoy 29 119
16 Gookie_Dawkins 31 116
17 Jarrett_Hoffpauir 27 115
18 Will_Rhymes 27 115
19 Eric_Sogard 24 114
20 Russ_Adams 29 112
now here's AA:
1 David_Adams 23 1592 Jason_Kipnis 23 141
3 Tim_Torres 26 139
4 Joshua_Satin 25 133
5 Jason_Van_Kooten 25 125
6 Andrew_Parrino 24 124
7 Matthew_Lawson 24 123
8 Ryan_Adams 23 123
9 Joshua_Johnson 24 122
10 Matthew_Lawson 24 119
11 Tony_Thomas 23 118
12 Andrew_Romine 24 115
13 Osvaldo_Martinez 22 114
14 Danny_Espinosa 23 113
15 Brett_Lawrie 20 112
16 Jaime_Pedroza 23 112
17 Yamaico_Navarro 22 110
18 Luis_Hernandez 26 110
19 Dustin_Ackley 22 110
20 Logan_Forsythe 23 108
Emaus EL OPS+ was 129 in 136 ABs
A+:
1 Andy_Cumberland 21 1602 Alden_Carrithers 25 159
3 Harold_Garcia 23 157
4 Travis_Denker 24 152
5 Joshua_Satin 25 148
6 Brock_Holt 22 142
7 Corban_Joseph 21 140
8 Jason_Kipnis 23 139
9 Cody_Puckett 23 134
10 Grant_Green 22 130
11 James_Skelton 24 129
12 Albert_Cartwright 22 128
13 Chris_Gutierrez 26 127
14 Thomas_Field 23 127
15 Oscar_Tejeda 20 126
16 Matthew_Cline 24 122
17 Stephen_Figueroa 23 122
18 Davis_Stoneburner 25 120
19 Mycal_Jones 23 119
20 Kyle_Seager 22 119
A:
1 Rick_Hague 21 1642 Corey_Jones 22 152
3 Jeremy_Barnes 23 151
4 Tyler_Bortnick 22 142
5 Tyler_Saladino 20 140
6 Robbie_Shields 22 137
7 Jose_Altuve 20 135
8 Christian_Lara 25 133
9 Wilmer_Flores 18 131
10 Nick_Franklin 19 131
11 Ryan_Cavan 23 129
12 Ryan_Gennett 20 129
13 Dean_Anna 23 127
14 Conner_Crumbliss 23 126
15 Devin_Goodwin 23 125
16 Philip_Gosselin 21 124
17 Ryan_Goins 22 123
18 Henry_Rodriguez 20 122
19 Jason_Stidham 22 120
20 Travis_Adair 22 119
I calculated it- player OBP/SLG, league OBP/SLG and the 2010 minor league park multipliers Szym posted a couple of monthe ago
Yessiree, I missed something allright- I had Giavotella as a "b", not a 1b, 2b or 3b....
His OPS+ was 127
which makes him 5th in the AA (and yes 1 through 4 are OLDER than he is.)
Similar to the major league phase (wrt previous accrued service time) except that these are guys not on the 40-man -or- on the AAA affiliate's 38 man roster (so, 78 guys are protected). Picks cost 12K and there is no requirement to keep them at the AAA level (play them anywhere in your system that you want). Accordingly, there's no mechanism to send picks you don't want back. There's also a AA phase (picks cost 4K) but not many guys get tabbed here 'cause, really, you're only making someone available here if you'd rather have $4,000 than the player in your system (teams always have loads of available AA roster spots). Truthfully, most teams have open AAA roster spots too - as a general rule, teams are okay with losing those guys (I think Seattle was the only club that filled their AAA roster this year - though I'm sure some teams would have protected an extra guy or three were it not for wanting flexibility to sign minor league free agents before the draft).
Virtually no one of interest comes out of the AAA phase - Scott Podsednik is the most famous guy from that phase I can think of offhand.
It seems a little like when the Nats grabbed Flores, except Flores actually had a better rep with the glove and was less proven with the bat. But they really had nothing to lose by playing him at C given their other options.
Have you heard anything about their plans for Tejada? Is he going back to SS? I get the sense this is our last season to watch Reyes in a Met uni, but I hope I'm wrong. Jose seems like a different player now than he was in 2007-08-- he didn't look like he was having fun this year. Maybe it's just all of the ink...
Brian Buscher, former Twins 3B, was another guy taken in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft.
I was going to make a joke about them needing a clean up hitter, then I noticed they took a pitcher.
I will always be Steve Bray's biggest fan.
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