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Thursday, November 01, 2012

2013 Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Good stuff from Tim Dierkes over at MLB Trade Rumors. The pickings are slim.

EDIT: Commenting fixed. Jim

Jim Furtado Posted: November 01, 2012 at 09:33 AM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4289944)
Mike Napoli to the Stros makes no sense. I see him landing in Tampa Bay or back in Texas. Stros will sign some AAAA slugger to DH, or a cheap retread.

I see the Nats going after Upton, not Bourn. Local kid.

They have the Mariners making no signings and the Jays making just one which I think is silly. I think the Mariners are aggressive this winter to save Jack Z's job and I think Toronto has money burning a hole in their pocket.
   2. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 01, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4289955)
I don't think there's any way Hamilton ends up back in Texas.
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4289965)
Melky Cabrera as the lone significant new Red Sox signing? That just sounds wrong to me. But when you try projecting like this, you end up with all kinds of weird results.

I will guarantee one of those is wrong. Rafael Soriano is not re-signing with the Yankees. He wants a multi-year deal, and they do not want him on the books for 2014.
   4. JJ1986 Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4289977)
I have very little handle on where Hamilton might end up. I don't see Texas, I've heard Milwaukee but they probably can't afford him. The Dodgers and Nats can't fit him, the Yankees won't pay him, the Angels need to focus on pitching. Baltimore looks like the best spot, but I don't think they'd pay him either which might leave him with Boston as the only realistic destination.
   5. SG Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4289982)
I will guarantee one of those is wrong. Rafael Soriano is not re-signing with the Yankees. He wants a multi-year deal, and they do not want him on the books for 2014.


If the Yankees offer him a qualifying offer he's going to probably take it, because I'd be shocked if he can round up even a $10M/yr contract from anyone.

Then again, he may decide that making more in total contract is worth the trade off of making less per year. He may prefer 3 yrs/$27M to 1 yr/$13.3M. Assuming Rivera is back in 2013 his value won't be any better next year than it is right now.
   6. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4289986)
I will guarantee one of those is wrong. Rafael Soriano is not re-signing with the Yankees. He wants a multi-year deal, and they do not want him on the books for 2014.


I don't think the Yankees will offer him a multi-year deal (but hey, I didn't think they'd sign him in the first place) but I think there's a good chance Soriano accepts the Yankees qualifying offer after surveying the market and finding nothing remotely worthwhile on the multi-year front. This has the added effect of giving Soriano a raise for 2013, as the qualifying offer plus his $1.5 million buyout amounts to a nice unearned boost in salary. Thanks for another money-stealing scam, Bud!

EDIT - Bah, a cold bottle of Snooki Soda for SG
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4289988)
I have very little handle on where Hamilton might end up. I don't see Texas, I've heard Milwaukee but they probably can't afford him. The Dodgers and Nats can't fit him, the Yankees won't pay him, the Angels need to focus on pitching. Baltimore looks like the best spot, but I don't think they'd pay him either which might leave him with Boston as the only realistic destination.
What about the Tigers? The have replacement level or worse players in the corner outfield, their time to win is now, and their super-rich owner is a bit desperate to win.
   8. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4289989)
Alfonso Soriano is available.
   9. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4289991)
Assuming Rivera is back in 2013 his value won't be any better next year than it is right now.
Exactly. He's not getting a big contract as a 34-year-old set-up man. I think you're underestimating both the amount of money floating around baseball right now, the continued irrationality of baseball executives in pursuit of proven closers, and the skill of Scott Boras in beating market prices for his clients. Plus the value for a 30-something relief pitcher of added guaranteed years. I'm guessing Soriano gets 3/30 or so from, let's say, the Dodgers?
   10. SG Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4289998)
I think you're underestimating both the amount of money floating around baseball right now, the continued irrationality of baseball executives in pursuit of proven closers, and the skill of Scott Boras in beating market prices for his clients


I think the market for closers is correcting. Last offseason Ryan Madson had to settle for one year, Francisco Rodriguez accepted arbitration, Joe Nathan signed for 2 years and $15M.

Now granted, Madson hadn't been a proven closer for long, Rodriguez had been demoted to setup man and Nathan was coming off an injury and down season and Jonathan Papelbon got mega-bucks, but I'm guessing Ruben Amaro won't be throwing more money at a closer this year.

I'm guessing Soriano gets 3/30 or so from, let's say, the Dodgers?


Didn't the Dodgers just re-sign League to close? And is 3/30 really that much different from 3/27? My point is he's not getting multiple years at the rate he made the past two years or at the rate of the qualifying offer.
   11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4290001)
Didn't the Dodgers just re-sign League to close? And is 3/30 really that much different from 3/27? My point is he's not getting multiple years at the rate he made the past two years or at the rate of the qualifying offer.
-I think the Dodgers just picked up League's option, I don't think that makes him the closer.

-3/30 and 3/27 are pretty similar. But Soriano's chances of getting 2/14 or 2/17 as a 34-year-old after pitching set-up relief are pretty low, aren't they? Even discounting injury risk.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4290002)

I think the market for closers is correcting.


Um, no.
   13. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4290004)
Correction on League. Jeez that's an overpay.
   14. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4290012)
The Dodgers could have brought back Jonathan Broxton for 1/5 of that price.
   15. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4290020)
I'm 39 and played baseball in high school. That's got to be worth a two year, $1.2M deal to the Dodgers.
   16. Nasty Nate Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4290025)
The Soriano thing is interesting. In another thread yesterday, everyone was predicting that he would decline the QO and get a better deal in free agency. In this thread the opinions are the opposite.

I have very little handle on where Hamilton might end up....the Yankees won't pay him.


God, I hope you are right.
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4290045)
They won't. They can only spend about $175M on their 2014 payroll. Assuming they re-sign Cano, they'll have ~$100M wrapped up in four players. I can't imagine they'll add another $20-25M player to that roster in advance.
   18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4290047)
It will be interesting to see where Nick Swisher ends up. I think he's still a pretty useful player and I think there will be a bigger market for him than MLBTR suggests. I can totally see him getting overpaid.
   19. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4290051)

I see the Nats going after Upton, not Bourn. Local kid.


If the Nats go after a CF I think it will definitely be Upton, they've been hard after him in trade talks a couple different times. Before Harper established himself well in CF last season I assumed Upton was a lock to end up in Washington as a free agent and he's still very likely to be their top target if they want to add an OF.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4290060)
They won't. They can only spend about $175M on their 2014 payroll.


why?
   21. fra paolo Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4290072)
What about the Tigers? The have replacement level or worse players in the corner outfield, their time to win is now, and their super-rich owner is a bit desperate to win.

As things stand at the moment, I would be surprised if the Tigers signed Hamilton. AFAICT, they think Dirks is good enough, and are going to give Boesch another year to prove he can hit. They are more likely to focus on Anibal Sanchez as the possible big-ticket free agent signing.

I'm betting any outfield upgrade comes via trade, rather than free agency.
   22. SteveM. Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4290073)
The Dodgers could have brought back Jonathan Broxton for 1/5 of that price.


Yes, but you aren't including the increased cost of the post-game spread in that.
   23. Bug Selig Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4290081)
AFAICT, they think Dirks is good enough, and are going to give Boesch another year to prove he can hit


They are so enamored of Boesch that they used Danny Worth as a pinch-hitter in the World Series while Boesch was left off the roster. He's done in the D.
   24. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4290083)
They won't. They can only spend about $175M on their 2014 payroll.

why?
The Yankees have made clear over the last year that they intend to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2014. The penalties for continually running over the threshold are significantly larger in the new CBA. (Plus there's the whole revenue sharing "rebate" issue.) The tax threshold for 2014 is $189M, which after subtracting some of the extraneous costs included in the payroll calculation, translates to about $177M in major league payroll. I assume the Yankees will need in-season flexibility, so really they can't spend much more than $170M on their opening day payroll.
   25. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4290086)
Boesch! That's who I was wondering about all of October, when Leyland brought in multiple pinch-runners and defensive replacements as pinch-hitters. Where was Boesch?

Also it took until October for me to realize that Carlos Guillen had retired. Venezuelans, they're all the same.
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4290093)
The Yankees have made clear over the last year that they intend to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2014. The penalties for continually running over the threshold are significantly larger in the new CBA. (Plus there's the whole revenue sharing "rebate" issue.) The tax threshold for 2014 is $189M, which after subtracting some of the extraneous costs that make up the threshold, translates to about $177M in major league payroll. I assume the Yankees will need in-season flexibility, so really they can't spend much more than $170M on their opening day payroll.


Thanks. Does that mean that 2014 is a *gasp* bridge year for the Yankees?

I reserve some skepticism as they in the past have made clear certain intentions and then done the opposite (A-Rod, Soriano).
   27. fra paolo Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4290100)
They are so enamored of Boesch that they used Danny Worth as a pinch-hitter in the World Series while Boesch was left off the roster. He's done in the D.

I thought it was Berry who kept Boesch off the roster.

Anyway, there's this.
General manager Dave Dombrowski said Tuesday afternoon that the Tigers will tender a contract offer to Boesch, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time....

"I think it's the case that he still has ability, he can still hit the ball out of the ballpark," Dombrowski said. "We still see some untapped potential, and he has struggled some. He hasn't made the strides we'd like him to make. However, sometimes power hitters take longer to come about, too."
   28. Sweatpants Posted: November 01, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4290174)
Shane Victorino - Braves
Wow. No, thank you.
   29. DA Baracus Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4290182)
Shane Victorino - Braves

Wow. No, thank you.


Yeah. The explanation makes little sense. It'll be a wide market for Victorino but his price will be low? If there's a lot of teams interested in him the Braves aren't getting his services.
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4290191)
It'll be a wide market for Victorino but his price will be low?
There's a wide market, but it's a bit of a buyer's market. If you want an outfielder with a solid bat whose value depends on plus baserunning and plus fielding, you'll be interested in BJ Upton or Angel Pagan. Victorino's the consolation prize if you miss out on them. So the clubs remaining are likely to be those who don't want to spend too much money on this type of guy.
   31. Bourbon Samurai Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4290197)
If the Nats go after a CF I think it will definitely be Upton, they've been hard after him in trade talks a couple different times. Before Harper established himself well in CF last season I assumed Upton was a lock to end up in Washington as a free agent and he's still very likely to be their top target if they want to add an OF.


I think this season may have chanegd the calculus there a little- for one thing Harper was great in CF, but also if they need to add something to the lineup it's OBP, not power.
   32. DA Baracus Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4290202)
There's a wide market, but it's a bit of a buyer's market. If you want an outfielder with a solid bat whose value depends on plus baserunning and plus fielding, you'll be interested in BJ Upton or Angel Pagan. Victorino's the consolation prize if you miss out on them. So the clubs remaining are likely to be those who don't want to spend too much money on this type of guy.


Yeah I get that, but I just don't see the Braves landing him unless Victorino loses free agent musical chairs. It's not Frank Wren's style. If they can't resign Bourn I think they make a trade to get a CF. That's more Wren's style.
   33. Cris E Posted: November 01, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4290214)
Apopos of nothing, every once in a while I read something from someone and I remember why that writer got so popular in the first place. Here's a little snippet of Keith Law's chat from this afternoon that struck me as funnier than it should have (if you know what I mean.)


Jason (St Louis)
So by all accounts several teams are flush with cash and at the same time the next two free agent classes are very weak. On top of that you can't spend more in the draft or in the international market. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Klaw
Are you kidding me? This is going to be *hilarious*.


   34. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4290253)
A Yankee outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Hunter? I guess if Hunter will take a one year deal that's a better allocation of funds than a long-term high-dollar contract for Nick Swisher, but I don't see how Hunter fails to get at least a two year deal out of his resurgent 2012.
   35. Bug Selig Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4290282)
I thought it was Berry who kept Boesch off the roster.


Berry started most of the postseason. Hard to believe leaving him off was ever considered. They went with three do-many-things-none-of-them-well guys (Worth, Santiago, Kelly) rather than a presumed hitter (Boesch) and ended up using Worth (and Kelly, later) as a pinch-hitter.

If they thought there was ANY chance Boesch could help, they could have gone with one less helping of craptastic from the utility man buffet.

General manager Dave Dombrowski said Tuesday afternoon that the Tigers will tender a contract offer to Boesch, who is eligible for arbitration for the first time....

"I think it's the case that he still has ability, he can still hit the ball out of the ballpark," Dombrowski said. "We still see some untapped potential, and he has struggled some. He hasn't made the strides we'd like him to make. However, sometimes power hitters take longer to come about, too."


That makes me sad. I think there's a better chance that Austin Jackson will try to catch the next looper hit in front of him than there is that Brennan Boesch will ever be an acceptable starting option.
   36. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4290298)
I can see the Cubs definitely signing at least one, maybe two pitchers -- but Marcum is not one of them, I think.

They desperately need someone to make 30-35 starts - and a potential injury case like Marcum just ain't that.... it's not like the Cubs have anything on the farm not quite ready, but could be ready by midseason -- there's just nothing even remotely interesting and possible to get those starts in 2013. Even Trey McNutt - if he hadn't had a regressed 2012 - probably isn't something they'd want until September.

Lots of talk that both Dempster and the Cubs are interested in a reunion -- which, given the wasteland -- I wouldn't mind if it's only 1 yr + and option... but Joe Blanton is a much, much better fit for the Cubs than anyone else.

He ought to come relatively cheap, he's a guy you can almost certainly not sweat making his starts, etc...

If someone tosses 3 year at him - I'm probably not interested, but I would gladly take Blanton for something approximating last offseason's Maholm deal.

I'm sticking with my desire to dig up a prospect corpse like Brandon Wood, Andy Marte, or something like that for 3B.
   37. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4290300)

Also it took until October for me to realize that Carlos Guillen had retired. Venezuelans, they're all the same.


I totally forgot Victor Martinez was on the Tigers til McCarver mentioned it during the World Series.

It'll be a wide market for Victorino but his price will be low?


Wasn't he asking for a five year deal? I agree, it will be a buyer's market for outfielders. The teams that are inclined to spend a lot don't seem to have a ton of OF holes.
   38. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4290306)
Joe Blanton is a much, much better fit for the Cubs than anyone else.

He ought to come relatively cheap, he's a guy you can almost certainly not sweat making his starts,


Don't worry, Big Joe will do plenty of sweating for the both of you.
   39. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4290310)
I'm sticking with my desire to dig up a prospect corpse like Brandon Wood, Andy Marte, or something like that for 3B.


The Pirates have had both, and from what I saw, neither is worth having.
   40. Spahn Insane Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4290312)
I can see the Cubs definitely signing at least one, maybe two pitchers -- but Marcum is not one of them, I think.

I'd like to see the Cubs go after Sanchez; how many years you figure he gets? Five?

Blanton for a one-year deal? Meh, but OK, I guess.

EDIT: Blanton's worse than I thought--he's not nearly as good a risk as Maholm was. Pass. I agree with you on Marcum.

On the non-pitcher side, I'd like to see them make a play for Upton, but I suppose they haven't convinced themselves Brett Jackson'll never learn to make contact yet.
   41. zonk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4290328)

I'd like to see the Cubs go after Sanchez; how many years you figure he gets? Five?

Blanton for a one-year deal? Meh, but OK, I guess.

EDIT: Blanton's worse than I thought--he's not nearly as good a risk as Maholm was. Pass. I agree with you on Marcum.

On the non-pitcher side, I'd like to see them make a play for Upton, but I suppose they haven't convinced themselves Brett Jackson'll never learn to make contact yet.


But I'm not expecting to be any good next year -- at this point, I'm just looking for innings soaks because I have no desire to ever see Casey Coleman pitch another baseball.
   42. McCoy Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4290337)
I expect Dempster to be back and the Cubs to do the same thing they did last year which was sign/trade for several fringey starters at minimal cost/team control.
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4290350)
The Pirates have had both, and from what I saw, neither is worth having.

I don't know, if Brandon Moss can be an abject disappointment with the Pirates and then go to the American League and suddenly start hitting like Boog Powell, maybe Brandon Wood isn't that bad either.
   44. Spahn Insane Posted: November 01, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4290353)
Yeah, I can see bringing Dempster back on a short-term deal, and I certainly share zonk's view of Coleman.

I don't expect the Cubs to be any good next year either, but Sanchez and Upton ought to be useful well beyond next year; since starting pitching's an area of desperation and CF will be too if Jackson doesn't pan out, I say make a play.
   45. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 01, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4290411)
Blanton is at least interesting in that he posts a great K/BB ratio... but gives up gobs of homers. I mean, the Cubs are going to be elbow-deep in the discount bin anyway so hoping Blanton has a lucky year and keeps the ball in the park a bit probably isn't a worse gamble than the next Chris Volstad experiment.

EDIT: I do like Upton for the Cubs in that I think he will be a solid player for a long time. The problem is that in a market this thin I think a competitor or two really opens up the checkbook and signs him for a lot of money and (almost) the remainder of this decade.
   46. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: November 01, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4290419)
I would like to see Torii Hunter in a Twins uniform again. That seems like a good fit for both sides--the Twins desperately need another power bat in the outfield.

2 years, $24MM or something? He's comparable in many ways to Josh Willingham, who got $22MM over 3 years last winter (but was 3 years younger than Hunter will be).
   47. bookbook Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:58 PM (#4290473)
So, Hamilton to Seattle? If you can get him for eight figures, the bat is craved.
   48. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4290482)
The Twins desperately need pitching. They're swimming in outfielders.
   49. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: November 01, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4290574)
So, Hamilton to Seattle? If you can get him for eight figures, the bat is craved.


Man, I'd love to see that. Seattle desperately needs a competent hitter. Several, really. I could actually see Seattle making a bit of a splash with FA. They've only got like $37M in guaranteed contracts next year and they've got money to spend.
   50. base ball chick Posted: November 01, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4290579)
i would love to hear an explanation of why hitters suddenly stopped being able to hit in seattle

as for the astros - mike napoli???
not unless he wants to sign a 1 year deal for minimum wage. i will need that electric shock thingy to kickstart mah heart if they sign an expensive FA like him, who is gonna get a multi year deal.

the FO has said they gonna go with jason castro (the Organization is seriously in luuuuvvv with this guy, don't ask me why) and carlos corporan. they don't wanna pay 4 mill for veteran goodness chris snyder, so they sure as heck ain't gonna pay for no russell martin, who forgot how to hit a few years back

i can't see josh hamilton in the he!! that is the boston media market.
   51. JJ1986 Posted: November 01, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4290583)
Several, really.


One might even say they need 6.
   52. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 01, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4290585)
I'd like to see the Angels take a run at Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda before last season had said he wanted to stay on the West Coast. He's been nothing but effective every year in the bigs, and I'd take a chance on him with a 2-year deal, with maybe a 3rd year option. The Angels need an arm, and Kuroda's a good one.
   53. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4290609)
7. Edwin Jackson - Blue Jays.


He's coming back?

Amazing that he's been on 7(8) franchises already, and he's only 28.
   54. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4290784)

The Blue Jays might have $$$ burning a hole in their pocket, but I doubt they spend it on too many players. They've already been making noises about cutting payroll.


I think the Tigers will bring back Boesch.. but they won't go into the season with Boesch, Dirks, Berry as the only corner OF options. They'll sign someone like Ross or Hunter to start in a corner and hit lefties, or trade for similar. A Justin Upton trade would not suproise me, but they don't have the pieces as far as I can tell (Porcello and something?) I'd be happy if the resigned Sanchez, but very surprised. I'd love to see them try to trade for Haren instead. I see the Tigers adding a reliever, too.

Also, it's splitsville for Delta Burke and Major Dad.

   55. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 02, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4290794)

The Blue Jays might have $$$ burning a hole in their pocket, but I doubt they spend it on too many players. They've already been making noises about cutting payroll.


I do see them instead taking "buy low" trades that other teams want to dump for salary concerns. Like Marco Scutaro and AJ Burnett last year.
   56. just plain joe Posted: November 02, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4290822)
He's coming back?

Amazing that he's been on 7(8) franchises already, and he's only 28.


Jackson is on the Octavio Dotel power tour. Is Jackson some kind of head case, I'm amazed that a pitcher of his ability/potential keeps getting moved around so often.
   57. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 02, 2012 at 11:39 AM (#4290826)
Also, it's splitsville for Delta Burke and Major Dad.

Surprisingly, Delta Burke and Major Dad are still married, 21 years after that episode aired.

This is a bigger upset than Omar Vizquel ending up having a longer career than Carl Yastrzemski.

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