Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, October 20, 2013

2013 World Series PREDICTION CHATTER

Predict, discuss, complain and all the rest as we wait for the start of the 109th Fall Classic.

Gamingboy Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:18 PM | 145 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, predictions, red sox, world series

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 
   1. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4578896)
4-2 Red Sox. Both of the Cardinals wins come with Wacha on the mound. Carlos Beltran has an OPS over 1.100, but strikes out looking on a Koji Uehara splitter to end the series in game 6 with the tying run on base. Mike Napoli hits a ball that goes out of the park and through the gateway arch. Jake Peavy gives up 6 runs, but gets the no decision when the Red Sox stage a late inning rally capped by a grand slam by Johnny Gomes and giving Dale Sams a heart attack.
   2. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4578897)
4-1 Red Sox, with Red Sox fans complaining and moaning all the way until the last out, at which point they switch back to claiming they knew all along they'd win because they're so great.
   3. winnipegwhip Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4578907)
4-3 Cardinals. Boston wins first 3 games. Bobby Valentine gets seats behind the dugout for games 4-7. Fox uses his presence and inexplicable Red Sox collapse in a cross promotion for the upcoming Carrie movie.
   4. VoodooR Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4578908)
4-3 Cardinals. David Freese does something to add to his postseason lore.
   5. Eric Ferguson Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4578911)
No game until Wednesday? That is some bullshit.

Not a prediction, I know.
   6. Curse of the Graffanino (dfan) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:54 PM (#4578918)
Why is Boston the consensus favorite? Both teams have the same record and almost the same run differential.
   7. BDC Posted: October 20, 2013 at 02:55 PM (#4578919)
Normally I always go with the dominant starting rotation, when there is one, but it's really hard to say whether there is one. I would expect Lester and Wainwright to make a couple of solid starts apiece, but after that you wouldn't really be surprised to see any starter on either team do very well or very poorly. Wacha has been wonderful, but the young man has started 12 major-league games in his life. It would be no surprise, no shame either, if he simply folded up and disappeared for the World Series.

I'll throw a dart at the board and say Red Sox in seven.
   8. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:02 PM (#4578924)
Why is Boston the consensus favorite? Both teams have the same record and almost the same run differential.


Because the AL is considered a stronger league, so a team with the same run differential as an NL team did it against stronger competition.
   9. Eric Ferguson Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:04 PM (#4578927)
Why would Wacha fold up and disappear for the World Series? Reading BTF, I've learned that nobody's going to be watching anyway, so it's pretty much a no-pressure situation.
   10. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:06 PM (#4578929)
4-2 Sox, series to be followed by a round of "The TV ratings are down again!" sky-is-falling articles.
   11. Curse of the Graffanino (dfan) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:19 PM (#4578935)
Aha, the stronger-league factor makes sense, though the AL only went 154-146 in interleague play this year (lowest winning percentage since 2004).
   12. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:24 PM (#4578939)
An actually interesting case can be made - would the Red Sox have had such a great season in 2013 if Bobby V didn't manage them in 2012?

If they don't hit bottom, they might not make the Trade. And then they don't sign NapolGnomesarino.
   13. salvomania Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4578940)
If Allen Craig is actually healthy enough to hit, that will be huge for the Cardinals. That would give them and actual good hitter at DH, and leave just one sub-100 OPS+ spot in the lineup (either Kozma or Descalso).

Without Craig I would say the Sox lineup makes them definite favorites. With Craig in there, hitting like he has all season (not a given, as he hasn't been in a game in seven weeks), I think the Birds have a shot.
   14. Gamingboy Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4578941)
DAMN TYPOS!
   15. Poster Nutbag Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:32 PM (#4578943)
Cards in 5. Would be a sweep, but that Game 3 is gonna be a classic, down-to-the-wire game with a late escape by the Sox.
   16. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4578946)
at 3AM.
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4578947)
Both teams lose.

-- MWE
   18. salvomania Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:41 PM (#4578948)
I kinda hope they give Lynn a Game 2 start as he has been MUCH MUCH better over his career at home vs. on the road: 1.13 WHIP home, 1.43 road; 2.97 era at home, 4.58 road; 10 hr allowed at home, 23 on road.

He's a flyball pitcher, and Busch is not a home-run park... Lynn pitching in Fenway is a scary picture....

Put Wacha and his ice-water circulatory system in Fenway for Game 3...

1, Wainwright
2, Lynn
(REST)
3, Wacha
4, Kelly
5, Wainwright
(REST)
6, Lynn
7, Wacha

This gives you two starts on regular rest for both Wainwright and Wacha, and two home starts for Lynn, who is (let's face it) still a better pitcher than Joe Kelly.


EDIT: NEVER MIND, I got the home/road games reversed. My barin is tired.
   19. salvomania Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:47 PM (#4578953)
1, Wainwright
2, Wacha
(REST)
3, Lynn
4, Kelly
5, Wainwright
(REST)
6, Wacha
and let's hope we don't need a Game 7
   20. Curse of the Graffanino (dfan) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 03:47 PM (#4578954)
Games 1-2 and 6-7 are in Boston, 3-5 in St. Louis.
   21. dejarouehg Posted: October 20, 2013 at 04:23 PM (#4578977)
Cards win in 6. Carpenter MVP. Granter I'm surrounded by Red Sox haters (Yankees fans) but my sense is that people are into this WS.
   22. Textbook Editor Posted: October 20, 2013 at 04:23 PM (#4578979)
I suspect Lester gets the Game 1 start with Buchholz in Game 2. They sort of need Buchholz to start before an off day because he may only give you 5 good innings and they want to be able to rest the bullpen after his start.
   23. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 20, 2013 at 04:29 PM (#4578985)
WTF knows who's gonna win, but I'll say that this year's Cardinals team is better than the '04 team.
   24. salvomania Posted: October 20, 2013 at 04:34 PM (#4578993)
this year's Cardinals team is better than the '04 team.


Definitely better pitching, I don't know bout the offense---that offense in '04 was pretty good.
   25. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 20, 2013 at 04:55 PM (#4579013)
think it's going the full seven games with all but maybe 1 or 2 as nailbiters.

two heavyweights going toe to toe delivering haymaker after haymaker

saying sox 4-3 but by a whisker
   26. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 20, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4579015)
I predict a team of ########## will win.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: October 20, 2013 at 05:01 PM (#4579017)
WTF knows who's gonna win, but I'll say that this year's Cardinals team is better than the '04 team.


My feeling exactly. I felt really confident about Boston's chances before the 04 series. This one is scary. I'll say Cards in 7, and hope that my recent forecasting success rate holds up.

   28. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 20, 2013 at 05:10 PM (#4579026)
Cards in 5.
   29. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: October 20, 2013 at 05:31 PM (#4579035)
Red Sox in 7, winning final game in the 19th inning when PH Jake Peavy walks with the bases loaded off reliever Pete Kozma.
   30. toratoratora Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:09 PM (#4579073)
7 games,walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth-baseball wins.
How bout that?


(Realistically, the way the Tigers starters handled the Sawx and the heat the Cards bring scares me badly-my head thinks Cards in six as they feed the flailing Red Sox a steady diet of 98 MPH fastballs, my heart,and it's health, think a repeat of 04 would be just fine)
   31. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:14 PM (#4579077)
Lowest-rated World series ever.
   32. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4579082)
I don't think any aspect of a seven game series between two excellent and evenly matched major league baseball teams can be predicted.
   33. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:38 PM (#4579089)
I predict a team of ########## will win.

I really don't see how the Braves could manage to win this series.
   34. winnipegwhip Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:48 PM (#4579096)
Lowest-rated World series ever


Probably there will be lower rated series than this one. But it will not prevent some idiot writer to pen an article about the ratings and the decline of baseball.
   35. winnipegwhip Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4579097)
Plus if the Sox lose the CHB will write about the disappointing season.
   36. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:53 PM (#4579100)
Meteor 1-bos/stl 0
   37. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: October 20, 2013 at 06:55 PM (#4579102)
It's a pretty tight series between two very good teams. I don't think the Cardinals have faced a lineup this deep very much this season, and I think the Red Sox have generally faced tougher overall competition. On the other hand, the Cardinals top two starters are better than the Red Sox top two, and I could see a scenario where Boston gets on the plane after Game 2 down 2-0.

My gut is that Boston's offense will show up for this series, and that the Cardinals won't be able to keep up with that.

I also generally have less respect for the quality of the National League these days than the AL. If Toronto was in the NL, they would look a lot better...
   38. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 20, 2013 at 07:40 PM (#4579128)
I don't think any aspect of a seven game series between two excellent and evenly matched major league baseball teams can be predicted.


Ray, you are actually Spock aren't you? Dude, you are the most unemotional person I have ever encountered. Yes, in practice, predicting this series is a fool's errand, but that's not the point. The point is to either be silly or just have your best guess.

I'm going Sox in 5. They'll take both at home, one in a tight one, one by actually scoring more then 4 runs. I think they'll get to Wacha and Lynn and as #37 said, the offense shows up...consistently.

Yeah Ray, it's a prediction without any logical or statistical analysis. But is was fun! You might want to try it sometime.
   39. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 07:46 PM (#4579130)
Detroit in 6

wait....what??
   40. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: October 20, 2013 at 07:49 PM (#4579132)
Prediction: Carlos Beltran has an absolute monster of a series.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:03 PM (#4579137)
Cardinals in 5. With the addition of Adams for the first two games, I just don't see Boston having good enough pitching to keep the better offense of the Cardinal's down.
   42. Anonymous Observer Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:13 PM (#4579142)
The only prediction I'm making is that the Cardinals actually hold a lead for at least half an inning at some point this time.
   43. Poster Nutbag Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:30 PM (#4579148)
I don't think any aspect of a seven game series between two excellent and evenly matched major league baseball teams can be predicted.


Yet you feel the need to post that?

Honest question: Why not just ignore the thread entirely then? Are you just posting to share your opinion with others?
   44. dejarouehg Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:33 PM (#4579153)
Lowest-rated World series ever.
That will be the public's loss. Let 'em watch the NFL
   45. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:47 PM (#4579158)
Sox in six. I'm a Red Sox fan, you expected something else?

As for the 2004 comp I think the Cardinal pitching is a huge difference. I felt incredibly confident going in that with Carpenter out the Sox would be able to get to the Cardinal pitchers. I remember hearing the day of Game One that Steve Kline wouldn't be available and that was huge because it meant Larussa was going to be limited trying to deal with Papi, Nixon and Damon. Unfortunately I don't feel so confident this time around. I'm with toratoratora that after the way the Tiger flamethrowers handled the Sox offense this week it's a bit scary looking ahead but a nice problem to have. Plus the Cards bullpen is better than the Tiger bullpen I think.

Still, Sox in six, Jonny Gomes is series MVP after reaching base a WS record 9 times via error.
   46. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:51 PM (#4579161)
#44

Spot on. If you are a baseball fan and can't bring yourself to watch essentially the two best teams(best records over long season has to prove something!) play for the championship, then, well I say too bad as your going to miss a great series.
   47. Xander Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:54 PM (#4579163)
Humor me: Why did the pitchers hit in every game of the 1981 World Series (even in AL parks)? I can't find any reference to it on the 'net.
   48. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 20, 2013 at 08:58 PM (#4579165)
Humor me: Why did the pitchers hit in every game of the 1981 World Series (even in AL parks)? I can't find any reference to it on the 'net.

Back in the day World Series in even-numbered years had DH's, odd-numbered years had none. This started in 1976.

ETA: Looks like the practice ended in 1986.
   49. Xander Posted: October 20, 2013 at 09:02 PM (#4579168)
Huh. And it seems like it lasted through 1985, correct?
   50. Dale Sams Posted: October 20, 2013 at 09:15 PM (#4579176)
capped by a grand slam by Johnny Gomes and giving Dale Sams a heart attack.


Also his only hit of the series. Leaving me pulling my hair out wondering why the guy who was 1 for 27 is being sized for his Fenway statue, later Beane trades a couple of Raiders tickets for Daniel Nava. A's win 105 games in 2014, and are swept by the Royals in the ALDS.
   51. winnipegwhip Posted: October 20, 2013 at 09:16 PM (#4579178)
If you are a baseball fan and can't bring yourself to watch essentially the two best teams(best records over long season has to prove something!) play for the championship, then, well I say too bad as your going to miss a great series.


I have invested time in 6 series and 32 games (including wild card games). If the teams don't excite me then I will probably see how things flow. Game 1 I will watch if it is good. I will be there for games 6 and 7 if they happen.

With so many post-season games nowadays even the most hardened fan has to pick and choose a lot of the times. A generation ago it wasn't as hard with 3 seven game series. The post-season has gone from a maximum 21 games to a possible 43 games. The minimums went from 12 to 26 games with the wildcards.
   52. musial6 Posted: October 20, 2013 at 09:42 PM (#4579185)
4-2 Red Sox. Both of the Cardinals wins come with Wacha on the mound.


Wainwright has been announced as the game 1 starter. You need to check your math.

I fully expect Wacha in games 2 and 6, and some combination of Kelly and Lynn in games 3, 4, and 7 if necessary.

I'll predict Cards in 6, winning 3 of the 4 Wainwright/Wacha starts and 1 of the 2 Kelly/Lynn starts.
   53. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:14 PM (#4579195)
Mike Napoli hits a ball that goes out of the park and through the gateway arch.

You forgot to add, "Ray unimpressed."
   54. Textbook Editor Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:15 PM (#4579197)
On the other hand, the Cardinals top two starters are better than the Red Sox top two, and I could see a scenario where Boston gets on the plane after Game 2 down 2-0.


Yeah, this is my biggest worry; I could easily see this happening, especially if Buchholz starts Game 2 (which I suspect he might).

On the other hand, if they go Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Peavy-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz, I think the Red Sox can at least split the first two games, win one in STL, and thus come back for Game 6 down 3-2 but with Lackey going on 5 days' rest followed by Buchholz/Johnny Wholestaff for Game 7.

I have no idea how they'll handle the rotation. Conceivably they could flip Lackey and Lester to give Lester an extra day. The problem with a Buchholz start is that he may only give you 5 or 6 innings, and with those starts it's better for the bullpen to have the guaranteed day off the next day.

It should be a fascinating series.
   55. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:16 PM (#4579198)
Why is Boston the consensus favorite? Both teams have the same record and almost the same run differential.

Assuming they're evenly-matched teams, home field advantage would make Boston the slight favorite.

Boston in 6. Better hitters and they'll get hot again at some point.
   56. Rob_Wood Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:32 PM (#4579200)
something interesting will happen
a manager's decision/indecision will be discussed at great length on bbtf
a starting pitcher will be left in too long and give up a key hit
a relief pitcher will give up a key hit and people will say why did the manager take out the starter
bobby valentine will be lauded as catalyst for red sox resurgence (it pays to hit rock bottom)
   57. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:41 PM (#4579206)
Boston seems to have easily a better lineup, and one that wears pitchers down, meaning the pen has to be good. OTOH the Red Sox lineup is strikeout prone and the Cardinal pitchers, including the pen love to strike people out, with the exception of Joe Kelly. I'm going to say Kelly gets shelled in Game 3 and the Cards start Miller in Game 7 on like 35 days rest other than the inning in the Pirate series. Red Sox survive Rosenthal, Martinez, and Siegrist, and beat Edward Mujica in the 11th inning of Game 7 -- maybe 7-6.

bobby valentine will be lauded as catalyst for red sox resurgence (it pays to hit rock bottom)
Is it really "lauding" if the argument is that he was so crappy the team had nowhere to go but up after he left?
   58. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:45 PM (#4579209)
Ray is right.

With that said, Sox in five.
   59. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:52 PM (#4579215)
Why are people saying that people won't watch this World Series? What is the argument supporting that?
   60. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:56 PM (#4579217)
A lot of neutral fans won't watch the World Series because they hate both teams. I don't see any reason why it would get lower-than-normal ratings, though. Both teams have big fan bases.
   61. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2013 at 10:58 PM (#4579218)
No idea, ray. If you're a baseball fan you watch the series. If you can only watch a few series, you include the World Series.

I don't like either team but it's not a soap opera or popularity contest. It's the goddam World Series.
   62. Lassus Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:00 PM (#4579221)
I'll call Boston in 7. I think that they'll get their third of the decade.
   63. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:00 PM (#4579222)
Why are people saying that people won't watch this World Series? What is the argument supporting that?


I'm with ray. Like it or not this is two teams with widespread fan bases. Other than having the Yankees involved I don't think you'd expect a better matchup for tv ratings. Obviously in the end it's going to be series length that will be critical.
   64. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:07 PM (#4579225)
So. Length does matter.
   65. The District Attorney Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:12 PM (#4579228)
.
   66. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:13 PM (#4579230)
No idea, ray. If you're a baseball fan you watch the series. If you can only watch a few series, you include the World Series.

I don't like either team but it's not a soap opera or popularity contest. It's the goddam World Series.


Being a Mets fan, I sat out Braves/Yankees in '99. If you really have a visceral hatred for both teams, why would you want to watch them play for a title?
   67. SoSH U at work Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:15 PM (#4579231)
No idea, ray. If you're a baseball fan you watch the series. If you can only watch a few series, you include the World Series.


Ray's not taking exception with the idea that baseball fans won't watch the series, he's wondering why so many in the thread are forecasting record low ratings (though I think those posts are a comment on how the same thing is written every year).

And obviously, he's right. This will most definitely not be lower than some previous series ratings-wise, regardless how long it goes. The fan bases of these teams are too large for that.

   68. The District Attorney Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:16 PM (#4579233)
Yeah, somehow I don't think that it hurts a series when the participants are universally well-known and elicit a strong emotional response from people.

If it does, someone should tell Vince McMahon that he's been scripting sporting events wrong for the past 30 years.

I have no clue who'll win -- it seems like an extremely even matchup -- but I'm rooting for the Cards. I think they're the best-run team in baseball. And I just find the Red Sox "style" intolerable to watch. Perhaps if they didn't happen to have a bunch of deliberate pitchers (which I don't think was an intentional choice by them) in addition to a bunch of deliberate batters (which obviously was an intentional choice by them), I wouldn't hate watching them so much. Or perhaps not.
   69. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:17 PM (#4579234)
Being a Mets fan, I sat out Braves/Yankees in '99. If you really have a visceral hatred for both teams, why would you want to watch them play for a title?

You will watch these games and you will choke on them! This is the punishment you must endure. Bunyon has decreed it.
   70. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:18 PM (#4579237)
Ray is right.


God is great.
Garvey is moral.
I am good looking.

What are statements that cannot possibly be true....
   71. greenback calls it soccer Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:23 PM (#4579241)
OTOH the Red Sox lineup is strikeout prone and the Cardinal pitchers, including the pen love to strike people out, with the exception of Joe Kelly. I'm going to say Kelly gets shelled in Game 3 and the Cards start Miller in Game 7 on like 35 days rest other than the inning in the Pirate series.

I'm guessing Kelly will have a short leash. He's got fantastic stuff, but he has the tendency to be off the edge of FoxTrack, or whatever their version of PitchFX is. I don't mean he hits the edge of the strike zone, I mean he is nearing hit-the-mascot territory. Against a walk-happy team like the Red Sox, that could get ugly. The good news is that a relief pitcher can be ready within about two batters.

Edward Mujica

I'm hoping he doesn't make the roster. Sam Freeman, for all of his warts, has his uses, and Mujica has looked toasty for about a month now.
   72. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:24 PM (#4579242)
I think I'm rooting against the Red Sox because I find their beards extremely silly. I hope to come up with a better rooting reason at some point.
   73. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:25 PM (#4579243)
If you're a fan of a team only, sure I see missing it. I think a lot of folks, even here, aren't baseball fans as much as their fans if a team. I have no issue with that. People get to do what they want.

Sitting out the World Series - by choice - says to me that you aren't really a baseball fan.
   74. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:30 PM (#4579245)
If you're a fan of a team only, sure I see missing it. I think a lot of folks, even here, aren't baseball fans as much as their fans if a team. I have no issue with that. People get to do what they want.

Sitting out the World Series - by choice - says to me that you aren't really a baseball fan.


Well put. As a Sox fan, but more of a baseball fan, I would've been happy to watch the Tigers, A's, Tampa or Cleveland in the series. LA would've been interesting and the Pirates became everyone's 2nd favourite team, so that would've been good to see.
I always like the Reds as my NL team so that would've been fun also. I'd always watch parts of every game and of course any clinching game(s)
   75. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:31 PM (#4579246)
I guess I don't like baseball. I don't know why I watched the hundreds of hours of non-Mets baseball (was there any other kind?) I watched this year.
   76. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:41 PM (#4579253)
I'm hoping he [Mujica] doesn't make the roster. Sam Freeman, for all of his warts, has his uses, and Mujica has looked toasty for about a month now.

They could replace him with Craig and keep both Chambers and Wong. CF, SS and 3B are such black holes for the Cards that they might need as many people as they can get.
   77. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2013 at 11:58 PM (#4579262)
75; I don't either. There are between 4 and 7 games left before a long, cold winter. Skipping them because you don't like how it came out seems bizarre to me. Obviously, you don't have to watch. I just can't understand someone who loves watching baseball sitting the series out. YMMV.
   78. winnipegwhip Posted: October 21, 2013 at 12:08 AM (#4579265)
Some may not care for either team and actually why watch a result where you are going to see a team celebrate. For some watching the Cards vs Red Sox and listening about and hearing from their fanbases is like watching Germany and the Soviet Union invade Poland in 1939.
   79. Sonic Youk Posted: October 21, 2013 at 12:23 AM (#4579268)
Q: how do you know what the Classy Fanbases are?

A: they're the ones calling other people ######## over and over again, for no apparent reason
   80. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 21, 2013 at 12:38 AM (#4579275)
For some watching the Cards vs Red Sox and listening about and hearing from their fanbases is like watching Germany and the Soviet Union invade Poland in 1939.


That's a bit extreme. I watched the Yankees every time they are in the series(though I generally go for the other team). I don't get the outright animosity towards a particular team. Like Harvey, I'm a big fan of booing the other team(no profanity) but I don't actually hate another team. Sure, NY is annoying and Tampa with their whole finding good young pitchers every year thing going. There's Boston lite over there in Oakland which won nearly as many games with like 1/millionth of the payroll of the actual Sox, but I enjoy those things. That's part of baseball. Sure the tomahawk chop is just down right silly and the Cardinals maddening consistent success is monotonous, but hey, that's baseball. I love it, warts and all.

Though in saying all that, as a Sox fan I thought the pink hats were bad enough, the pink beards are just downright embarrassing...
   81. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 21, 2013 at 01:02 AM (#4579283)
For some watching the Cards vs Red Sox and listening about and hearing from their fanbases is like watching Germany and the Soviet Union invade Poland in 1939.
I'd have watched the dual invasion of Poland if it had been televised.
   82. shoewizard Posted: October 21, 2013 at 01:42 AM (#4579291)
I think the home team advantage will be key here.

I expect each team to win one game in the other team's house, but the series goes to Boston in 7
   83. PreservedFish Posted: October 21, 2013 at 01:49 AM (#4579292)
I will watch the games, but I don't blame anyone for not doing it. These are two of the teams that I was rooting against in the playoffs. And the Fox TV package is a big turn-off for me. The bombastic programming combined with Buck's flavorless monotone is kind of the opposite of how I would wish for the game to be presented. And, yes, as a few people have stated on this site, maybe the World Series title doesn't mean as much as it once did. The Giants won it last year, with a good but not great team - and was that one of the important stories of the year? It seems like something that happened and was forgotten.
   84. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 21, 2013 at 01:50 AM (#4579293)
I guess I don't like baseball. I don't know why I watched the hundreds of hours of non-Mets baseball (was there any other kind?) I watched this year.


You're a baseball fan, just probably a whiney, insufferable one. I watch as many pitches in the playoffs as I can, and I try to watch every pitch of the World Series, regardless of whether my team (the Red Sox) are in it.
   85. shoewizard Posted: October 21, 2013 at 01:57 AM (#4579294)
I'm going to miss a lot of the world series.

I have some customers coming in on Thursday and Friday morning my time in China, and so that conflicts with the game time of the first two games.

I am free Saturday morning, but of course there is no game in the States Friday night, so no use to me.

On Sunday I am supposed to go play Golf, but don't know what time yet. If afternoon tee time then can watch the game.

Then you have Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Thursdays games if it goes 7. Those are all weekday mornings for me. (Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday) I'll catch some innings of some of the games.....but just can't take the whole morning off in any of those days.


So I'm pretty much screwed out of most of the games and will be watching highlights and replays.

Such is life.
   86. shoewizard Posted: October 21, 2013 at 02:03 AM (#4579296)
Sure the tomahawk chop is just down right silly


Without a doubt, the most annoying thing in baseball is the constant moan that comes out of the TV set when the Braves have a full house of engaged fans.

I don't hate the Braves, or there fans, or anything like that. It's just really really annoying to listen to that Chant/Moan for house on end.

   87. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: October 21, 2013 at 02:36 AM (#4579300)
You're a baseball fan, just probably a whiney, insufferable one. I watch as many pitches in the playoffs as I can, and I try to watch every pitch of the World Series, regardless of whether my team (the Red Sox) are in it.

Well, in my defense, when I boycotted the WS I was 13 and the successes and failures of the team I root for had outsized importance in my life. Adult me is a lot closer to your robo-self than it is to a typical fan. But I really wouldn't fault someone for still remaining a child when it comes to something like baseball, and I wouldn't say said someone isn't a baseball fan because they dislike two teams to the point of not wanting to watch them play.
   88. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: October 21, 2013 at 02:53 AM (#4579301)
Boston seems to have easily a better lineup, and one that wears pitchers down, meaning the pen has to be good.


A useful post from a Cardinals board:

Boston has the edge in wOBA, sizably so, .347-.322. in wRC+ their advantage is 115-106. Boston led baseball with 363 doubles and the next closest team (the Cardinals) had 41 fewer. By just about every tangible, meaningful measure Boston was leaps ahead of everyone else offensively this year. rWAR has about the same gap between the two as the Fangraphs metric.

One thing worth keeping in mind is the DH, which Boston does without only as often as St. Louis employs it. Also the dead weight that both teams have shed favors St. Louis over Boston, and Boston also got a win from Iglesias that's not there, they got 1.2 wins from Mike Carp who has no starting role and won't see much time in the WS, plus they can't play both Gomes (1 win) and Nava (1.8.)

If we break this into who's going to be playing, and we want to look just at offense:

C
Salty .349 wOBA/117 wRC+
Yadi .362 wOBA/134 wRC+

1B
Napoli .367 wOBA/129 wRC+
MMGA .365 wOBA/136 wRC+

2B
Pedey .347 wOBA/115 wRC+
Carp .381 wOBA/147 wRC+

SS
Drew .337 wOBA/109 wRC+
Kozma .241 wOBA/50 wRC+

3B
Middlebrooks .300 wOBA/83 wRC+
Freese .322 wOBA/106 wRC+

LF
Nava .366 wOBA/128 wRC+
or
Gomes .338 wOBA/109 WRC+
Holliday .383 wOBA/148 wRC+

CF
Ellsbury .343 wOBA/114 wRC+
Jay .319 wOBA/109 wRC+
or
Robinson .303 wOBA/93 wRC+

RF
Victorino .353 wOBA/119 wrC+
Beltran .359 wOBA/132 wRC+

DH
Papi .400 wOBA/152 wRC+
Craig (?) .363 wOBA/135 wRC+

In five of those nine lineup spots, by wRC+ (which factors in that Boston plays in a shoebox half the time, to take something but not all from their admittedly prodigious offense) St. Louis has a demonstrable advantage--like double-digit leads in wRC+. In another category--1B--they have an edge. So while Boston was awesome in the marathon of the season, based on the sprint that's about to be run and the guys who are going to be getting into the starting blocks, you have to make kind of a leap to say that Boston is much better offensively, let alone going to walk all over them based on the marathon that's over. I don't think the advantages Papi has over Craig and Ellsbury has over Jay/Robinson are enough to make up for some matchups that are tilted pretty favorably toward St. Louis.
   89. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 21, 2013 at 07:34 AM (#4579315)
Ray is right. Call it the "stopped clock syndrome".

I kid! Because I love. Ray's a Red Sox fan, and when he says that he can't predict the outcome, he's not alone. That doesn't, in and of itself, mean he's robotic.
   90. Davo Dozier Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:01 AM (#4579319)
And the Fox TV package is a big turn-off for me. The bombastic programming combined with Buck's flavorless monotone is kind of the opposite of how I would wish for the game to be presented.
This cannot be over-stated.
   91. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:24 AM (#4579327)
88 - I guess that shows that the Cardinals had better years in 2013 offensively. By the same token their defense was much worse -- those 8 position players had a -28 UZR, compared to Boston's +43, and baserunning of -2 vs Boston's +10. It also says only a little about how good the players are going forward. Basically the Cards have black holes at SS, 3B and CF, whereas the Red Sox have a weakness only at 3B. The Cards have star quality players at C and 2B, and the Red Sox at 2B, CF and DH. OK I didn't do a projection for all 9 players on both sides, but this back of the envelope thing says the Red Sox have a pretty clear advantage here. YMMV. It's just my opinion and I don't expect everyone to agree.
   92. ThisElevatorIsDrivingMeUpTheWall Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:24 AM (#4579328)
Cardinals in 7. Red Sox fans wear Buchholz masks for game 2 since it's close to Halloween and WTH, Lon Chaney was scarier than Boris Karloff or Bela Lugosi anyway. Boston loses Game 6 because Napoli lets a ground ball through his legs when his vision is obscured by his beard. The "nation" asks why Carp with his lighter shade of beard wasn't inserted for defense? Game 7 sets a record for a 9 inning game in taking four hours and forty-six minutes - it only seems like five hours because of Buck and McCarver. Remington sets record for November sales in Massachusetts.
   93. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:39 AM (#4579335)
Remington sets record for November sales in Massachusetts

Or they could take a field trip to originalny salon fryzjerski
   94. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:40 AM (#4579336)
88 - At this point Bogaerts is almost certainly the starting 3B for the Red Sox over Middlebrooks.
   95. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:42 AM (#4579338)
88 - I guess that shows that the Cardinals had better years in 2013 offensively. By the same token their defense was much worse -- those 8 position players had a -28 UZR, compared to Boston's +43, and baserunning of -2 vs Boston's +10. It also says only a little about how good the players are going forward. Basically the Cards have black holes at SS, 3B and CF, whereas the Red Sox have a weakness only at 3B. The Cards have star quality players at C and 2B, and the Red Sox at 2B, CF and DH. OK I didn't do a projection for all 9 players on both sides, but this back of the envelope thing says the Red Sox have a pretty clear advantage here. YMMV. It's just my opinion and I don't expect everyone to agree.


You won't get any disagreement from me about the defense, though by the same token I'd take the Cardinals' pitching (starting and relieving) over Boston's by a fair margin for the purposes of this series. Also, characterizing David Freese as a black hole is a fairly big oversell.
   96. bunyon Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:47 AM (#4579339)

Well, in my defense, when I boycotted the WS I was 13 and the successes and failures of the team I root for had outsized importance in my life.


That IS different. I apologize if I've come off judgemental. I really don't have a problem with people being such a fan of a particular team they can't get into if that team isn't playing. That's fine. It's just that if your chief love is a team and you can miss out on good baseball not involving that team, to me, you aren't a "baseball" fan but a "team" fan. Again, that's totally cool.

And I'm clearly not the guy who rules on who is or isn't a fan.

Anyway, I except from this business, illness (yours or loved ones), kid's plays, etc. I missed all but the last inning of game 6 in 1986 because my Mom was in a play. That stuff is fine. I'm only taking exception with sentiments like, "I'm going to watch Saved by the Bell reruns rather than the world series but boy do I love baseball." (Quoting the strawman sitting across from me in my office this morning.)
   97. Davo Dozier Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:49 AM (#4579341)
My prediction?

That by the end of the World Series, the best play of the year will still be A-Rod's homer off Dempster at Fenway.
   98. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 21, 2013 at 08:55 AM (#4579347)
You won't get any disagreement from me about the defense, though by the same token I'd take the Cardinals' pitching (starting and relieving) over Boston's by a fair margin for the purposes of this series. Also, characterizing David Freese as a black hole is a fairly big oversell.

The Cards pitching depends a lot on what they get from Wacha and Lynn. The Boston pitching seems a bit more certain, with Lester, Lackey and Buchholz all being pretty good to very good. Wainwright is probably the best pitcher on either team, but Wacha and Lynn seem like wild cards. I just don't buy Kelly as a better than "back of the rotation" starter. Hey I like Freese too. I'm from Chesterfield, MO, and I was at Game 6 in 2011. But Freese was basically replacement level in 2013. I think of him as a decent hitter but a terrible defender. He looks terrible at 3B, his UZR is terrible and the Cards replace him with Descalso whenever a defensive replacement can be used.
   99. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 21, 2013 at 09:31 AM (#4579360)
Is Wacha a wild card? He strikes me as just a damned good pitcher. It's one game and anything can happen but I expect him to be very good. Buchholz is the guy that I think warrants wild card status despite his general level of accomplishment. He hasn't been the same since coming back in mid-September he is basically a five inning pitcher right now.
   100. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: October 21, 2013 at 09:44 AM (#4579368)
The Cards pitching depends a lot on what they get from Wacha and Lynn. The Boston pitching seems a bit more certain, with Lester, Lackey and Buchholz all being pretty good to very good. Wainwright is probably the best pitcher on either team, but Wacha and Lynn seem like wild cards. I just don't buy Kelly as a better than "back of the rotation" starter. Hey I like Freese too. I'm from Chesterfield, MO, and I was at Game 6 in 2011. But Freese was basically replacement level in 2013. I think of him as a decent hitter but a terrible defender. He looks terrible at 3B, his UZR is terrible and the Cards replace him with Descalso whenever a defensive replacement can be used.


"Wild card" is certainly apt for Lynn; he's talented, but if he pitches through the lineup a third time in this series at any point he better have a five-run lead or be cruising. It's a shame Miller seems to have been put on the backburner, though to be fair he was looking pretty worn down the stretch; if the Cardinals could throw Wainwright/Miller/Wacha I'd have a fair bit more confidence in this series. Wacha...I don't think he's the next Tom Seaver like his performances lately would indicate, but he is a guy that was profiled as a #3 early on, and that was before he bumped his fastball up from 93 to 96-97. (Purportedly, Adrian Gonzalez told him after reaching on a walk during the NLCS: "Don't ever develop a slider, you'll be unhittable.") I have more confidence in him than I ever imagined I could have in a 22-year-old less than a year removed from being drafted. Kelly I can't get a good read on. I could see him as anything from rotational filler to a 105-110 ERA+ guy in his good years. Same goes for him as for Lynn; if Miller isn't starting, he needs to be available for two-three innings at a time when the situation necessitates. It's the World Series, no more ####### around with Mujica who has looked like toast when you have a top-ten-in-ERA starter as your long reliever and a stable of good-to-great bullpen arms for every situation.

My bad...when you said Freese was a black hole, I mistakenly assumed you were referring strictly to offense since you touched on teamwide UZR. That does actually surprise me to learn, though; I've never thought Freese looked terrible out there, and the reaction when Matheny replaces him in late innings is, in my experience, usually annoyance. The defense is one big reason that I really would have preferred Detroit, even with that rotation of theirs...Fenway scares the piss out of me. Beltran will have a ton of ground to cover and the thought of Jay's arm in that deep CF, or Holliday playing the Monster, makes me a little queasy. In principle I think it's a stupid format, but thank god for 2-3-2 right now.
Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogSchoenfield: Why didn't the Braves win more titles?
(50 - 6:23am, Jul 28)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October

NewsblogFull Count » Mike Carp, Felix Doubront and the challenges of player discontent on a struggling team
(7 - 6:19am, Jul 28)
Last: Jim Furtado

NewsblogOTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3292 - 6:14am, Jul 28)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October

NewsblogDJ Short: Maximum stay on Hall of Fame ballot changed from 15 to 10 years
(57 - 6:05am, Jul 28)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogDodgers and Diamondbacks Triple-A teams involved in wild brawl
(12 - 5:43am, Jul 28)
Last: Robert in Manhattan Beach

NewsblogFull Count » Mike Carp explains why he requested a trade from Red Sox
(18 - 3:18am, Jul 28)
Last: ellsbury my heart at wounded knee

NewsblogGossage on Bonds, McGwire Hall hopes: ‘Are you f–king kidding?’
(106 - 3:02am, Jul 28)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogHall of Fame Announces Changes to Voting Process for Recently Retired Players, Effective Immediately
(82 - 12:52am, Jul 28)
Last: DanG

NewsblogRoger Angell goes into the Hall of Fame
(28 - 12:49am, Jul 28)
Last: bobm

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(967 - 12:31am, Jul 28)
Last: clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right

NewsblogGiants purchase contract of 2B Uggla
(8 - 12:09am, Jul 28)
Last: Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick.

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-27-2014
(145 - 11:46pm, Jul 27)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogHoVG: John Rocker Shows Up in Cooperstown… “Survivor” Up Next
(31 - 10:52pm, Jul 27)
Last: depletion

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1956 Ballot
(7 - 9:28pm, Jul 27)
Last: neilsen

SABR - BBTF ChapterWho's going to SABR??
(100 - 6:40pm, Jul 27)
Last: Scott Fischthal

Page rendered in 0.9885 seconds
52 querie(s) executed