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Friday, March 28, 2014

2014 MLB CBSSports.com expert predictions

Consider this an all-purpose 2014 Predictions Thread. CBS Sportsline Predictions in the link.

ESPN American League Predictions

ESPN National League Predictions

Bob Nightengale, USA Today (Video)

The Sporting News 2014 Predictions

Sports Illustrated MLB Predictions

Sean McAdam, CSNNE.com

Beyond the Boxscore Projected Win Totals

Baseball Prospectus 2014 Projected Standings

Bovada Online Gaming Team Win Total Prop Bets (NSFW)

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 28, 2014 at 08:21 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: predictions

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Random Transaction Generator Posted: March 28, 2014 at 10:33 PM (#4678490)
Everyone has the Jays finishing last in the AL East.
Considering everyone had them finishing first in the AL East last year, I'll take this years predictions as a positive sign for the Jays.
   2. Knock on any Iorg Posted: March 28, 2014 at 11:11 PM (#4678505)
I predict that all these predictions will be proven wrong.
   3. Drexl Spivey Posted: March 28, 2014 at 11:15 PM (#4678506)
The Sporting News has the Cubs over the Brewers. How?





   4. puck Posted: March 29, 2014 at 01:56 AM (#4678526)
Wow BPro projected the Dodgers for 100 wins? Given all the regression to the mean, do projection systems spit out 100 wins very often?
   5. Dr. Vaux Posted: March 29, 2014 at 05:38 AM (#4678534)
Commercials with sound? Why do they expect anyone to return to their sites for a second time?

Is this the first time BPro has picked the Angels to win their division?
   6. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: April 03, 2014 at 01:57 PM (#4678537)
Prospectus predicts the Padres to go 80-79? That's both a lot of wins and a lot of rainouts. Why would the Padres be good? Better than the Pirates?
   7. McCoy Posted: April 03, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4678546)
Cubs are going to win it all.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 03:25 PM (#4678633)
AL Division Winners: Tampa Bay, Detroit, LA
AL WC: Texas over Toronto
NL Division Winners: Washington, St. Louis, LA
NL WC: Arizona over Atlanta
WS: Washington over Detroit

AL MVP: Mike Trout LAA
NL MVP: Bryce Harper WAS
AL Cy: Justin Verlander DET
NL Cy: Stephen Strasburg WAS
AL ROY: Jose Abreu CHW
NL ROY: Kolten Wong STL

   9. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: April 03, 2014 at 03:54 PM (#4678676)
AL Division Winners: Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle
AL WC: Tampa over Texas
NL Division Winners: Washington, St. Louis, LA
NL WC: Pitt. over SF
WS: St. Louis over Baltimore

AL MVP: Adam Jones Balt
NL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez LA
AL Cy: Felix Hernandez Sea
NL Cy: Ryu LA
AL ROY: Jon Schoop Balt (actually, Tanaka)
NL ROY: Kolten Wong STL
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:39 PM (#4678786)
AL East Rays, Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays
AL Central Tigers, Royals*, White Sox, Indians, Twins
AL East A's, Angels*, Rangers, Mariners, Astros

NL East Braves, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins, Mets
NL Central Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs
NL West Dodgers, Padres*, Giants, Rockies, Diamondbacks

World Series, Cardinals over the Angels.

AL MVP Trout
AL Cy Young Sale
AL Roy Jose Abreu

NL MVP Matt Adams (note he won't even be the fourth best position player on his own team, but will have around 130 rbi)...non-Cardinal Chase Headley
NL CY Young Wainwright (with Miller finishing second)....non-Cardinal pick, Gio Gonzalez.
NL ROY Kolten Wong...non-Cardinal pick, Mike Olt.
   11. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:36 PM (#4678828)
AL EAST
Tampa Bay, Boston, New York, Toronto, Baltimore

AL CENTRAL
Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota

AL WEST
Los Angeles, Oakland, Texas, Seattle, Houston

NL EAST
Washington, Atlanta, New York, Miami, Philadelphia

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago, Milwaukee

NL WEST
Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado

ALCS
Tampa Bay over Boston

NLCS
St. Louis over Washington

WS
St. Louis over Tampa Bay

* * *

MVP
Robinson Cano, Bryce Harper

CY
David Price, Adam Wainwright

ROTY
Xander Bogaerts, Mike Olt
   12. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:41 PM (#4678832)
Put me down for the Mets winning the NL East. Yankees over Cardinals in the Series (the Cardinals are definitely the most likely playoff team, right? They look 15 wins better than the Reds or Pirates, and have depth to spare. I'm yet to see anyone willing to pick anyone but St. Louis to win the NL Central.)
   13. jmurph Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:53 PM (#4678840)
AL
Rays
Tigers
A's
WC: Boston, Texas

NL
Nationals
Cardinals
Dodgers
WC: Giants, Reds

WS: Detroit over Dodgers
   14. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: April 03, 2014 at 07:02 PM (#4678849)
Put me down for the Mets winning the NL East.

I know the servers were down, but April Fools Day was still two days ago.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 07:08 PM (#4678854)
the Cardinals are definitely the most likely playoff team, right? They look 15 wins better than the Reds or Pirates, and have depth to spare.

I've seen them project about 0-5 games better than the Pirates. I've not seen anything remotely close to 15.
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: April 03, 2014 at 07:10 PM (#4678856)
(the Cardinals are definitely the most likely playoff team, right? They look 15 wins better than the Reds or Pirates, and have depth to spare. I'm yet to see anyone willing to pick anyone but St. Louis to win the NL Central.)


I think so, but I have seen several people pick the Pirates or the Reds...but generally speaking the Cardinals/Tigers/Dodgers are pretty much the consensus everywhere. I think the Cardinals depth pretty much guarantees they should do fine this year.
   17. Willie Mayspedes Posted: April 03, 2014 at 07:16 PM (#4678859)
AL Division Winners: Oakland, Kansas City, Red Sox
AL WC: Detroit over Texas
NL Division Winners: Washington, St. Louis, Dodgers
NL WC: Braves over Cincinnati
WS: Oakland over Dodgers

AL MVP: Eric Hosmer KC
NL MVP: Jayson Werth WAS
AL Cy: Scott Kazmir, OAK
NL Cy: Jose Fernandez, Miami
AL ROY: Xander Boegarts, Bos
NL ROY: Javier Baez, CHC
   18. puck Posted: April 03, 2014 at 08:48 PM (#4678907)
NL ROY: Kolten Wong STL


That would help him be remembered for something other than getting picked off to end a WS game.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: April 03, 2014 at 09:03 PM (#4678909)

That would help him be remembered for something other than getting picked off to end a WS game.


Him and Babe Ruth(well a caught stealing, but similar concept)
   20. Dan Posted: April 03, 2014 at 10:13 PM (#4678935)
AL East: Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Blue jays
AL Central: Tigers, Indians, Royals, White Sox, Twins
AL West: A's, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Astros
AL WCs: Red Sox, Orioles

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Mets
NL Central: Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Cubs
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, DBacks, Rockies, Padres
NL WCs: Braves, Pirates

ALCS: Rays over Red Sox
NLCS: Nationals over Cardinals
WS: Nationals over Rays

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL CYA: David Price
NL CYA: Stephen Strasburg
AL ROY: Xander Bogaerts
NL ROY: Mike Olt
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 10:56 PM (#4678955)

the Cardinals are definitely the most likely playoff team, right? They look 15 wins better than the Reds or Pirates, and have depth to spare


The Dodgers seem to consistently be the best NL team in wins in most projection systems, and the rest of the West is very mediocre.
   22. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 11:01 PM (#4678957)
True, but that was before Kershaw's shoulder went Code Red...
   23. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 03, 2014 at 11:06 PM (#4678959)
I've seen them project about 0-5 games better than the Pirates. I've not seen anything remotely close to 15.


That seems odd. The Cardinals were 14 games better than the Pirates last year (that they finished only 3 games ahead belies the Cardinals' 101 Pythag wins to the Pirates' 87) and neither team is significantly different this year (the Pirates in particular are practically the same team as last year). The Cardinals are better equipped to survive a major injury or two. I would be very surprised if the Pirates finished within 10 wins of the Cardinals this year.

The Reds were better than the Pirates last year (93 Pythag wins) but got significantly worse over the offseason. I think the gap between both those teams and the Cardinals is comfortably clear of 10 wins. The Pirates have less depth and so are more volatile, they could repeat last year's performance if they repeat last year's health, but injuries to, say, Liriano and Marte could quickly sink them into a win total in the 70s. I think it would take an awful lot to take the Cardinals below 90 wins.
   24. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: April 04, 2014 at 12:37 AM (#4678984)
AL East: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Boston, New York, Toronto
AL Central: Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Los Angeles, Texas, Seattle, Houston


NL East: Washington, Atlanta, New York, Florida, Philadelphia
NL Central: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago
NL West: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego, Arizona


ALCS: Baltimore over Los Angeles
NLCS: San Francisco over Atlanta
WS: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman
AL CYA: Felix Hernandez
NL CYA: Jose Fernandez
AL ROY: Jose Abreu
NL ROY: Billy Hamilton
   25. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 04, 2014 at 06:09 AM (#4679027)
ALCS: Baltimore over Los Angeles
NLCS: San Francisco over Atlanta
WS: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles


This turn of events would be surprising to me on several levels. Wild Card games instead of CS?
   26. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 04, 2014 at 06:18 AM (#4679029)
That seems odd. The Cardinals were 14 games better than the Pirates last year (that they finished only 3 games ahead belies the Cardinals' 101 Pythag wins to the Pirates' 87)

Do you think the mean expected win total for the Cards is 101 wins?
   27. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: April 04, 2014 at 06:22 AM (#4679030)
This turn of events would be surprising to me on several levels. Wild Card games instead of CS?


This is what happens when I don't get my BBTF fix for three days. Will edit.
   28. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: April 04, 2014 at 06:28 AM (#4679031)
AL East: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Boston, New York, Toronto
AL Central: Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Los Angeles, Texas, Seattle, Houston


NL East: Washington, Atlanta, New York, Florida, Philadelphia
NL Central: St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Chicago
NL West: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego, Arizona


ALWC: Baltimore over Los Angeles
NLWC: San Francisco over Atlanta

ALCS: Tampa Bay over Oakland
NLCS: Los Angeles over San Francisco

WS: Tampa Bay over Los Angeles


AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman
AL CYA: Felix Hernandez
NL CYA: Jose Fernandez
AL ROY: Jose Abreu
NL ROY: Billy Hamilton

Edited due to post #25
   29. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: April 04, 2014 at 07:28 AM (#4679040)
Do you think the mean expected win total for the Cards is 101 wins?


I am aware no system is projecting this. I personally expect them to win in the high 90s, and I think it's low 80s for both the Pirates and Reds (I think I'm closer to the projections on that one).

I'm not sure if the Cardinals are 100-win good in a vacuum, but they are very good, and their division-mates consist of two mediocre teams and two competitors for the #1 pick (I am very bearish on the Brewers). They should dine well on their intradivision competition.

It's entirely possible they'll have the division wrapped up by mid-September and will rest guys down the stretch, pulling their win total down to maybe 94 instead of 96.
   30. zonk Posted: April 04, 2014 at 08:36 AM (#4679061)
What would be a good over/under on the total wins out of Chicago?

130? 135?
   31. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 04, 2014 at 11:21 AM (#4679210)
Books have them around 145 (69.5 Cubs / 75.5 Sox)
   32. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: April 04, 2014 at 11:29 AM (#4679218)
PASTE, the Cards are very good. They should have won more games last season than they did. But they also had just about everything go right for them. They were both extremely healthy, and had a bunch of guys produce over their health.

If you compare it to last seasons team, the only position where I would feel comfortable taking the over is SS. And they have a bunch which I think are solid bets for unders. Plus they lost Beltran.

A 95+ win projection, when the next best is maybe 90, is batshit insane fanboy talk. You are vastly underestimating the downside risk.
   33. Nasty Nate Posted: April 04, 2014 at 11:37 AM (#4679229)
I would be very surprised if the Pirates finished within 10 wins of the Cardinals this year.


FWIW, the Pirates have been within 10 wins of the Cardinals in each of the past 2 seasons.

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