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Monday, July 28, 2014

2014 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: UPDATED

MLB.com updates its Top 100 Prospect List.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:30 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: prospect reports, prospects

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   1. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 28, 2014 at 11:10 AM (#4758950)
Something to keep Twins fans from going off the ledge, after dropping 7 of 10 after the All-Star break and falling to last in the Central.

I must admit, I'm approaching a point where these prospect lists are a bit like a Random Name Generator, so I appreciate lists like this that at least give me an idea as to what type of players will be stars as I get older.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 28, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4759040)
I'm beginning to think Andy Marte won't pan out.
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 28, 2014 at 12:50 PM (#4759049)
orlando arcia is hitting .290/.340/.404 and playing a good shortstop. he's only 19 and brevard county is a tough place to hit.

keeping my eye on that youngster

tyrone taylor is six months older and hitting .290/.336/.438 while playing a good centerfielder

watching his progress carefully as well

won't happen immediately but think these guys have a chance to be somebodies
   4. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 28, 2014 at 01:00 PM (#4759053)
I'm beginning to think Andy Marte won't pan out.


He's not even the best A. Marte on the 2014 Reno Aces...
in 2006 BA had 3 3rd basemen in a row at #13, 14 & 15
Alex Gordon
Andy Marte
Ryan Zimmerman


Marte was coming off a year where he hit .275/.372/.506 as 21 year old in AAA
Alex Gordon had not played in the Pros yet, but was the #2 overall pick in the 12005 draft.
Zimmerman was the 4th overall pick in 2005 and had hit .326/.371/.528 in 250 AA PAs... and .397/.419/.569 in 20 MLB games

Marte was on the BA prospect lists for seemingly forever, and seemingly every year he was bracketed by guys who went on to have much better MLB careers:
2004: Prince Fielder and Scott Kazmir
2005: Rickie Weeks and Hanley Ramirez
2006: Gordon and Zimmerman
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:23 PM (#4759204)
Time to cut bait on Andy Marte, maybe trade for a real can't-miss guy like Matt LaPorta.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:33 PM (#4759225)
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:36 PM (#4759227)
Raul Adalberto Mondesi still ranks pretty high on these lists despite a miserable season. I know he's very young (19) for his level, and the Carolina League is death on hitters, but how many guys have a line of .218/.264/.323 in the minors and go on to become really good?
   8. Walt Davis Posted: July 28, 2014 at 05:22 PM (#4759285)
Bryant 4, Baez 6, Russell 7 ... I'm not clicking through to find any others.
   9. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 28, 2014 at 06:09 PM (#4759317)
, but how many guys have a line of .218/.264/.323 in the minors and go on to become really good?


Hi-A at age 18....
very incomplete survey

1991, Brian Hunter hit .240/.316/.301 at age 20.
1992, Joe Randa hit .275/.324/.328 at age 22.
1994, Edgar Renteria hit .253/.307/.292 at age 17.
1996, Scott Podsednik hit .261/.343/.295 at age 20.
   10. Spahn Insane, cowering in fear of home run balls Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:09 PM (#4759394)
Bryant 4, Baez 6, Russell 7 ... I'm not clicking through to find any others.

Heh. It's pretty rosy even after those 3. Alcantara 37, Almora 41, Soler 54, Edwards 60, Schwarber 79. One might wish for more starting pitching, but this isn't a bad place to start from.
   11. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:20 PM (#4759398)
#10--Fortunately for Cubs fans, there are a boatload of #1/#2ish starting pitchers available in free agency this winter--have your pick!
   12. Spahn Insane, cowering in fear of home run balls Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:28 PM (#4759403)
#10--Fortunately for Cubs fans, there are a boatload of #1/#2ish starting pitchers available in free agency this winter--have your pick!

I'm curious to see how high they bid for someone like Lester (and how much interest top tier free agents have in playing for the Cubs). Perhaps now that they've gotten approval for whatever ballpark renovations they've been lusting after (combined with the talent pipeline being a year closer to The Show), they'll be more inclined to spend.
   13. Spahn Insane, cowering in fear of home run balls Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4759406)
1991, Brian Hunter hit .240/.316/.301 at age 20.
1992, Joe Randa hit .275/.324/.328 at age 22.
1994, Edgar Renteria hit .253/.307/.292 at age 17.
1996, Scott Podsednik hit .261/.343/.295 at age 20.


One of these things is not like the others.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:56 PM (#4759424)
Randa and Renteria have nearly identical career OPS+'s.
   15. McCoy Posted: July 28, 2014 at 09:07 PM (#4759435)
Randa was also basically the prototypical hitter for the 1995 to 2005 era. He's basically baseline for average for that era so if you want to know how much better or worse a guy's numbers were from that era use Randa.
   16. Ziggy Posted: July 28, 2014 at 09:17 PM (#4759442)
Molina bunting into a double play is... well... about what you expect.

And I always have trouble keeping Joe Randa and Sal Bando straight. I was very confused for a minute, why Randa might be a prototypical 1995-2005 era hitter.
   17. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 28, 2014 at 09:51 PM (#4759461)
ziggy

that's a serious insult to bando. he was a terrible gm but a tremendous player
   18. DKDC Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:01 PM (#4759463)
Manny Machado hit .245/.308/.384 in the Carolina league as an 18 yo.
   19. Spahn Insane, cowering in fear of home run balls Posted: July 28, 2014 at 11:11 PM (#4759485)
Randa and Renteria have nearly identical career OPS+'s.

Well, yeah, but Renteria's career was about twice as long, and he stayed at short. Also had a couple legitimate standout seasons, which Randa really didn't.

OK, check that--it was only 1.5 times as long. I'd forgotten how long Randa stuck around--over 6,000 PAs. Nonetheless, Renteria clearly had the better career, which you'd expect given their 5-year age difference at A ball.
   20. SteveM. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 11:49 PM (#4759495)
#10--Fortunately for Cubs fans, there are a boatload of #1/#2ish starting pitchers available in free agency this winter--have your pick!


Sadly, the Ricketts finances rule this out. They are pretty Wilpon like.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: July 29, 2014 at 12:28 AM (#4759503)
OK, check that--it was only 1.5 times as long. I'd forgotten how long Randa stuck around--over 6,000 PAs. Nonetheless, Renteria clearly had the better career, which you'd expect given their 5-year age difference at A ball.


Right, but we were just talking about hitting.

Renteria wins for a few reasons (higher peak, more years), but I think that the similarity between the two of them is still surprising.
   22. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 29, 2014 at 07:15 PM (#4760001)
Raul Adalberto Mondesi still ranks pretty high on these lists despite a miserable season. I know he's very young (19) for his level, and the Carolina League is death on hitters, but how many guys have a line of .218/.264/.323 in the minors and go on to become really good?


Is the correct answer hundreds or thousands? We often forget about the variance in prospects results year to year as well as the variance in their development curves.

And Mr. Mondesi has not yet had a miserable season, he is one hot month away from being a .275 hitter. none of this rebuts your point his development is going poorly, I'm just saying that it's too early to tell.

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