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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

2019 March Madness thread

I estimate only 6-8 Primates care about March Madness, but with their own thread they won’t detract from what this site is really about:  the 10-12 Primates who care about the NBA.

(Link is to a Yahoo bracket group)

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 13, 2019 at 07:47 AM | 108 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, college basketball, ncaa, off-topic

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   1. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 12, 2019 at 05:47 PM (#5822225)
ACC tournament is underway. Other major conferences start tomorrow. Gonzaga's in the WCC final tonight.
   2. Red Voodooin Posted: March 12, 2019 at 06:26 PM (#5822240)
This feels like a top-heavy year. Feels like a good year to go near-chalk with the 1 and 2 seeds.

There's 6 or 8 teams that can win all, there's another 5 or 6 in a tier below and then it falls off pretty sharply, and the bubble is historically weak this year with teams like 16-15 Texas and 17-14 Indiana still in the hunt for bids.

Another thing to look for this year, is the committee has replaced the old RPI formula with the NET formula, which looks much better when compared to third-party metrics like KenPom. Bracketologists don't really know how this change is gonna affect committee decision making (can't just use historical examples, since they've changed metrics) and may result in some surprises on Selection Sunday.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2019 at 09:11 PM (#5822282)
don't got to sleep on my alma mater Fairleigh Dickinson U! (or FARleigh Dickinson as the ESPN2 graphic had it at one point tonight).

became 7th team to punch a ticket to The Dance. 1-4 Northeast Conference start, then won 14 of last 16 to get to 20-13 for season. majority of their points this year on 3-pointers, guards shoot 89 and 87 percent from foul line....

and still they seem likely to get stuck with one of those two "purgatory" playoff games in Dayton next week matching up dreadful conference champs as 16 seed vs 16 seed. this time, I think they can win that one. gave Michigan a big scare 30+ years ago, No. 1 Illinois a rugged half maybe 10 years ago.... ah, I got nuthin.
   4. Absurd Joey Blotto Posted: March 12, 2019 at 10:56 PM (#5822301)
I’m on vacation in Naples, FL. Is the FGCU dunk city in play again?
   5. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2019 at 11:58 PM (#5822302)
no, Florida Gulf Coast tied for 3rd, but Liberty and Lipscomb dominated the Atlantic Sun this year. Liberty won the the tourney and may be looking at a 14 seed.

   6. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 13, 2019 at 12:41 AM (#5822304)
Gonzaga's in the WCC final tonight.
SPLAT!

Hello, St. Mary's! Goodbye, some unfortunate bubble team!
   7. Meatwad Posted: March 13, 2019 at 01:06 AM (#5822305)
Go Irish. Get those back to back titles.
   8. Red Voodooin Posted: March 13, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5822499)
A tough-luck Clemson team that has lost many close games this year, loses what many had described as a de facto bubble play-in ACC tournament game to NC State 59-58.
   9. PepTech Posted: March 13, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5822502)
Supposedly (and if they don't cack it up tomorrow) Washington would be the first major-conference school to make the field with zero wins over any team that makes it. Or something like that.

Ironically if they beat ASU in the Pac-12 they would probably ensure that ASU doesn't get in.
   10. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 13, 2019 at 07:42 PM (#5822608)
Ironically if they beat ASU in the Pac-12 they would probably ensure that ASU doesn't get in.
Nah. For ASU to lose to UW, the Sun Devils would have to reach the P12 final - and if they've gone that far, they've definitely punched their ticket.
   11. Red Voodooin Posted: March 14, 2019 at 03:27 AM (#5822669)
Nah. For ASU to lose to UW, the Sun Devils would have to reach the P12 final - and if they've gone that far, they've definitely punched their ticket.


I dunno. They are #62 in KenPom right now, #67 in the NCAA's NET. I think they need to win the auto bid to be safe.
   12. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 15, 2019 at 07:52 AM (#5822957)
With their win last night the Gophers are basically set for a bid (and likely early loss).
   13. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5823009)
TIL that the MEAC plays it's men's & women's tournaments concurrently, and in the same building. That's pretty great.

a de facto bubble play-in ACC tournament game to NC State 59-58
This is what's wrong with the huge field. State has done next to nothing to deserve a bid. They have one good league win (over Syracuse), two decent league wins (squeakers over Clemson), and three bad league losses (against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, & Notre Dame). They have one good OOC win (against Auburn). Outside of that, their OOC wins came against teams that Pomeroy has currently ranked as 41, 155, 194, 266, 272, 315, 323, 336, 337, 348, and 353. When you play 8 OOC games against teams in the bottom 100 of the whole NCAA (including a win over dead last Maryland Eastern Shore) you really aren't playing a useful schedule. Because the bottom of the ACC is crap and because they played a lot of crap teams outside of the league they got to 22 wins, but they're useless.

Also, their home loss to Va Tech where they were held to 24 points on 16.7% shooting was a crime against basketball. No team that does that should be allowed anywhere near the NCAA tournament.

EDIT: The NCAA's NET ranks Clemson ahead of Syracuse (and NCSU ahead of both), for whatever that's worth. Not that any of them are especially good.
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 15, 2019 at 11:59 AM (#5823013)
This has been an exceptionally disappointing year for fans of Oregon's men's basketball team. Basically, they have to beat ASU tonight and then win the tournament to have any chance of even making the tournament, and without Bol around, getting out of the first weekend would be just short of a miracle.

On the other hand, one of my alma maters (Minnesota) seems likely to make it, as do two of the places that have admitted me to law school (Washington and Gonzaga). So I won't be completely without rooting interest.
   15. Master of the Horse Posted: March 15, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5823023)
Really want to credit Nebraska as the team is down to six scholarship players and a walk on named Johnny Trueblood but won their first two games in the big10 tourney and go against Wisky today. Watson and Palmer for Huskers have played all 80 minutes which is unreal. Nebraska collapsed on Bruno yesterday and Maryland had no response so figure Happ gets the same treatment.
   16. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: March 15, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5823045)
Was at the Garden for the Nova game yesterday, then went back for the evening session, which was...uh...not great. Fun to see Howard and Powell play in person, but man alive, I figured St. John's played themselves out of a bid with that second half disaster. But the bracket guys still have them in as an 11 seed (and not subject to the play in game). I guess the bubble is pretty week.
   17. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 18, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5823407)
I really like this time of year. I wish I could take Thursday and Friday off. I mean I could, but ... well money.
   18. jmurph Posted: March 18, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5823545)
(crossposting from NBA thread):
Just read that Hoiberg is the frontrunner for the soon to be vacant Nebraska job. Waiting for a better job seems like the obvious play, but oh well.
   19. Howie Menckel Posted: March 18, 2019 at 03:57 PM (#5823562)
clever of the NCAA to pit a pair of bitter rivals in the very first game of the tournament Tuesday night - a play-in game between 16 seeds Fairleigh Dickinson and Prairie View A&M!

I think if you wanted to make a list of mostly phony school names along with sneaking in some real ones, then Gardner-Webb, Wofford, and Abilene Christian also could make the cut.
   20. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 18, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5823572)
I have to say, my previous post looks pretty dumb, given how easily the Ducks managed to slice through the Pac 12 tournament. I don't have any Final Four hopes for them without Bol, but it's been a fun week and everything that comes after this is gravy.
   21. vortex of dissipation Posted: March 18, 2019 at 07:11 PM (#5823595)
Supposedly (and if they don't cack it up tomorrow) Washington would be the first major-conference school to make the field with zero wins over any team that makes it. Or something like that.


I have to say, my previous post looks pretty dumb, given how easily the Ducks managed to slice through the Pac 12 tournament. I don't have any Final Four hopes for them without Bol, but it's been a fun week and everything that comes after this is gravy.


Washington did beat the Ducks during the regular season, so the Huskies manage to skip that "honor".
   22. TDF, trained monkey Posted: March 19, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5823656)
So Michigan State got screwed.

*Won the B1G regular season (tie, #1 seed in the tourney via tie breakers) and tournament (in a conference good enough to have 8 teams in the NCAA tourney).
*Had the most Quadrant 1 wins of any team.
*Per the Committee Chair, was the #6 overall seed (behind UVA (which didn't even play for its conference's championship), NC (which neither won the regular season nor played for its conference's championship), and Tennessee (which won neither its conference's regular season nor tournament championship)).

Yet somehow, MSU was put in the same region as the #1 overall seed.

***

We've always been told that the committee tries to avoid having conference foes play each other early in the tourney; yet, if they both win in the 1st round, MSU will play Minnesota in the 2nd round then (again, assuming everyone wins) would play Maryland in the Sweet 16.

***

Did I say MSU got screwed? If they play Maryland, it'll be at Capital One Arena - an 11 mile drive from Maryland's campus.
   23. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:09 AM (#5823660)
DC is closer to MSU than Anaheim, that's the reason they ended up in that region.
   24. bunyon Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:18 AM (#5823667)
No, it's odd. Screwed is a hard term. It's a tournament and all the number 1s are good and if MSU was number 1 they'd likely have one of those displaced 1s as their 2.

But, yeah, with that said, why is the #6 seed in the #1 seed's region. It's not like you're keeping them close to home. Maryland then Duke in DC is brutal.

I do think teams should forget everything about the draw as soon as it comes out and just go play. MSU can win its region (and the national title). As for any such team, it'll take some luck along the way. But I understand the fans being irritated.
   25. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5823671)
NC (which neither won the regular season nor played for its conference's championship)


If Michigan State won its regular season conference championship, then so did NC.

And you can't really argue the Spartans should be seeded ahead of Virginia.

   26. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5823675)
Everyone is so over the top on Duke that I got MSU +1400 to win their region this morning
   27. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5823708)
I don't think that Duke is enough better than Gonzaga or Virginia or NC that being in their bracket matters all that much. There's no invincible team this year.
   28. TDF, trained monkey Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5823756)
If Michigan State won its regular season conference championship, then so did NC.
My bad, I thought Duke was the one who tied VA.
And you can't really argue the Spartans should be seeded ahead of Virginia.
Maybe not, but what about NC or Gonzaga? Or Tennessee as the top #2 seed?
DC is closer to MSU than Anaheim, that's the reason they ended up in that region.
The "reason", as stated by the committee, was that Tennessee (as the top #2) got to play closest to home, then MSU was slotted into the next closest region - but that pitted them against the #1 overall seed. It's approximately 600 miles East Lansing to DC; is that really different than 700 miles to Kansas City? EDIT: After all, DC and Anaheim weren't the only 2 options.
I don't think that Duke is enough better than Gonzaga or Virginia or NC that being in their bracket matters all that much.
But according to the committee, they are better - the #1 overall seed. If they are, and if MSU is the #6 team (which the committee said), why would you put them in the same region? And why would you put a #2 seed in a region where they'd play a de facto road game in the Sweet 16?
   29. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5823761)
But according to the committee, they are better - the #1 overall seed. If they are, and if MSU is the #6 team (which the committee said), why would you put them in the same region? And why would you put a #2 seed in a region where they'd play a de facto road game in the Sweet 16?


It seems like properly seeding the No. 2s should be one of the most important jobs the committee has as far as creating balanced brackets, but every year it seems one bracket has a strong 1 and 2.

   30. Howie Menckel Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:07 PM (#5823765)
I just want to know why the refs, in the waning seconds of the Michigan-Michigan State game Sunday, overturned a 50-50 out of bounds call after 3-4 minutes of review. That was a game-changer.

if they had just shrugged and stuck with the original call, you might well have been spared all this agita.

:)
   31. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:10 PM (#5823767)
I think Michigan State is better than UNC, UNC probably had the better case for #1 seed of the two, and there's not enough difference to get too worked about about it if you're not partisan.
--
I do agree with #29.
--
All this said, is this the most balanced seeding the tourney has had in years? My (weak) attempts to model this keep ending up with a lot of chalk.
   32. Red Voodooin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:48 PM (#5823921)
All this said, is this the most balanced seeding the tourney has had in years? My


At the top, yes. It could just be happenstance as the top 8 or so has been pretty clear all year long, and that made it easy for the committee to line up the 1 and 2 seeds, and it also might be because the committee ditched the RPI in favor of NET and more advanced metrics. In previous years, it always seemed like one top 10ish team was seeded a two or three lines off from what KenPom would suggest. Example, last year Xavier was a #1 seed but entered the tournament around #13 in KenPom. This year Kansas was laughably #1 in RPI. Maybe in previous iterations of the committee they would have got an undeserved #2 seed.

I think I'm going with 7 of the 8 top seeds in the elite eight in my money bracket.
   33. Howie Menckel Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:53 PM (#5823922)

Gonzaga 1 vs FDU 16 Thursday:

FDU has decent size (well, for its level) inside, two stellar guards who also are 89/87 pct foul shooters, excellent 3-point shooting team. that's a profile to maybe scare for a half, especially having been down 13 early second half tonight and nearly that in previous two games. guards have stones (about 15 years ago same school was down 30-29 at half to No. 1 overall Illinois - and then the bed broke, as the old joke goes).

if those guards, or their best big man, get in foul trouble in the first half, they could lose by 40.

and bench points tonight: zero
   34. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: March 20, 2019 at 06:41 PM (#5824141)
   35. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 20, 2019 at 08:34 PM (#5824154)
It seems like properly seeding the No. 2s should be one of the most important jobs the committee has as far as creating balanced brackets, but every year it seems one bracket has a strong 1 and 2.


As I heard it reported, there is no real 'seeding'. They rank the teams 1-68, then distribute them in seeding order, adjusting only for a) travel distance and b) making sure teams from the same conference don't meet too early. They take 6 days to rank them, and 45 minutes to construct the bracket afterwards.
   36. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 20, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5824182)
Ouchie, that was a bad fall for Dort.
   37. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 21, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5824228)
(Link is to a Yahoo bracket group)

You ingrates forced me to actually fill out a bracket to keep Voodoo from winning by default.
   38. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5824337)
#### yeah Minnesota. Kick Louisville's ass.
   39. KronicFatigue Posted: March 21, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5824348)
So the biggest problem with the play-in games is that there are too few of them and half have zero long term consequence. The tournament hinges on gambling, and people procrastinate filling out their brackets. So people don't even include the play in games for scoring, and why should they? Who cares what 16 team goes up against a 1?

We need more play in games to make them start counting. 1984 looks like an interesting settup. Top 4 seeds had byes. I like that. The 1-16, 2-15, and 3-14 are typically boring.

I haven't thought this completely through, but I think 72 teams might make more sense. Top 2 seeds (8 teams) get a bye to the round of 32. 32 teams "play in" for the right to play those 8 teams in the round of 32. Then 32 teams start at the regular round of 64.

It slightly increases the bubble teams that get in and gives all the bottom teams winnable games. The play-in mini tournament would feel "real" and those bottom seeds can take pride in getting a win or two there. And we'd have a full slate of games earlier in the week.

EDIT: My numbers didn't add up correctly. I'm still not confident I have these brackets right in my head. Will need to draw it out later.
   40. jmurph Posted: March 21, 2019 at 02:13 PM (#5824349)
Isn't there a bizarre number of us with degrees from the University of Minnesota? I'm one of them, so this is fun!
   41. KronicFatigue Posted: March 21, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5824352)
First Minn game I've watched this season. how come they only average 5 threes a game? Are these guys just hot right now? They look like good shooters.
   42. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5824354)
Man, Louisville didn't know when they were dead. Minnesota didn't even play badly and Louisville got it to a 3 possession game before the end.
   43. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5824356)
They are pretty good shooters. Especially their high usage guys.

Jmurph, me too! Mondale Law 2010.
   44. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5824361)
Yale working on a comeback, only down 9 now with 6 to play.
   45. KronicFatigue Posted: March 21, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5824382)
With my 72 team bracket:

Wednesday: 16 games between 32 "bottom" teams in a play-in round.

Thursday: 16 games between 32 "regular" teams in the 1st round (round of 48 I guess)

Friday: 8 games between the winners of the "bottom" teams in round of 48.

Saturday: 8 games between the winners of the "regular" teams in the round of 32.

Sunday: 8 games between the winners of the "bottom" teams and the #1's and #2's that got byes in round of 32.
   46. Red Voodooin Posted: March 21, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5824407)
That Auburn-New Mexico State end was wild. Nobody really wanted to win the game (or in New Mexico State's case, they inexplicably didn't want to TIE the game).
   47. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5824425)
Wow, Belmont/Terps has been a wild game. Bradley gave Sparty everything they could handle and came up just short. Good games so far.
   48. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5824428)
WOW, Belmont made a terrible, terrible decision on their last play and are out.
   49. KronicFatigue Posted: March 21, 2019 at 05:36 PM (#5824429)
Not only was that last play awful, but isn't this time out terrible? If Maryland misses the FT, Belmont can't stop the clock. a halfcourt pass alone takes a couple of seconds.
   50. KronicFatigue Posted: March 21, 2019 at 05:38 PM (#5824430)
There you go. Missed FT, one pass, half court shot. They called a time out to prepare for a half court shot?!?!?!?!?
   51. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5824432)
Yeah, bonkers. They ran themselves out of time. Too bad, they otherwise played a very good game.
   52. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 21, 2019 at 05:45 PM (#5824433)
How the hell are Murray State only a 12 seed?

edit, so I'm not triple posting: Barack Obama's brackets
   53. Howie Menckel Posted: March 21, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5824473)
Gonzaga closes out the first half on a 19-0 run vs FDU, turning a 34-17 blowout into - well, let's just call it what it is. BULLYING
:):(
   54. Laser Man Posted: March 21, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5824476)
[48] Belmont tried to run their "Panic" play, which they successfully used to get a backdoor layup to beat UCLA at the buzzer earlier this year. But it didn't work this time...

Belmont "Panic" Play
   55. Howie Menckel Posted: March 21, 2019 at 09:40 PM (#5824478)
Gonzaga, in a fight for its second-half life, prevailed 34-32 to hang on for a 87-49 victory.
that's my story and I'm sticking to it
   56. Davo cant be eatin thirty hot dogs every day Posted: March 21, 2019 at 10:39 PM (#5824481)
That was a really cool link in 54. Thanks Laser Man!
   57. jmurph Posted: March 22, 2019 at 09:55 AM (#5824527)
How the hell are Murray State only a 12 seed?

It feels like there is one of these every year, often a 7-10 game, where the seeding is just totally unfair to the higher (meaning better) seed.
   58. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 22, 2019 at 10:07 AM (#5824529)
I'm very late to this, but if Michigan State had swapped places with UNC, instead of possible a third round game that's a de facto home game for Maryland they'd have a possible third round game that's a de facto home game for Kansas. I think KU's better than MD, so I'd take MSU's game instead.

(I ####### hate Maryland, those traitorous scum, and if LSU can't deliver the beating the Terps deserve then I hope that Michigan State makes the home fans weep tears of bitter despair, and uses those tears to salt the earth. If there are Terrapin corpses, I hope unspeakable things are done to those corpses.)
   59. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 22, 2019 at 10:15 AM (#5824533)
edit, so I'm not triple posting: Barack Obama's brackets
He picked a Carolina-Duke final. I really really really really really hope that doesn't happen. That's the nightmare scenario. I'm a native Chapel Hillian whose two favorite teams are Carolina and whoever's playing Duke (even the ####### traitors at Maryland), and I think I'd prefer Duke winning a title over some random non-UNC team to Carolina beating Duke in the final. There would be so much bad blood. I want no part of it.
   60. I am going to be Frank Posted: March 22, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5824569)
So that Auburn game yesterday was crazy. LSU also tried to give the game away to Yale, who was absolutely awful from three.

So I think Michigan State got screwed by getting sent to Duke's regional. Their team is down a starter and a rotation player. I don't know if the committee is allowed to take that into effect. Also the starting center from last season got hurt during the season and is back, but he hasn't returned to the starting lineup because the guy who replaced him is probably better for the team. Their PG is phenomenal and they play great defense. They had a bit of trouble with Belmont, but a lot of teams start slow in their first game. I just have a sneaking feeling that they're not going to make the Elite Eight even though I don't trust Minnesota, Maryland or LSU.

Regarding Minnesota - I've watched both games against Michigan and their offense is absolutely terrible. You will see a lot aimless dribbling, post-ups that start from way too far out and a lot of long twos. For some reason they shot more threes against Louisville and managed to make some.
   61. jmurph Posted: March 22, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5824575)
Regarding Minnesota - I've watched both games against Michigan and their offense is absolutely terrible. You will see a lot aimless dribbling, post-ups that start from way too far out and a lot of long twos. For some reason they shot more threes against Louisville and managed to make some.

They're basically the only team I saw much of this year and I strongly co-sign all of this. They frequently run their offense like 10 feet above the three point line for 15-20 seconds and predictably nothing comes from that, then they rely on Amir Coffey to break people down and create something, or find Jordan Murphy for some kind of difficult long two. Sometimes it works, both of those players are talented and experienced, but it's really ugly.
   62. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 22, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5824637)
So I think Michigan State got screwed by getting sent to Duke's regional. Their team is down a starter and a rotation player. I don't know if the committee is allowed to take that into effect.
The committee does take injuries into account. The way I've heard it put is that they try to seed at least in part based on the players that the team will bring to the tournament, not the players it had during the season.
   63. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 22, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5824645)
Minnesota's offense isn't great, but it's solidly mid-tier. 42nd in Kenpom. They should be trying more threes, though.
   64. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 22, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5824661)
So I think Michigan State got screwed by getting sent to Duke's regional.


Good, Izzo is an egotistical bully. I am sick of people defending coaches screaming at and berating their players.
   65. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 22, 2019 at 03:40 PM (#5824709)
Tell me you're not gonna do it again, Virginia.
   66. Lassus Posted: March 22, 2019 at 03:58 PM (#5824715)
On what ####### planet is Colgate a division I school? That is ridiculous.
   67. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 22, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5824717)
Colgate's not that much smaller than like, Butler.
   68. Red Voodooin Posted: March 22, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5824720)
Good lord. How can Virginia be ####### around with this AGAIN?!
   69. Lassus Posted: March 22, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5824721)
2,873 to 4,229 undergraduate enrollment.

I guess they are both tiny compared to everyone else, but come on. COLGATE? It's ridiculous.
   70. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 22, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5824722)
So UC Irvine over K State is the first real upset of the first round. Sure, Murray State was a 12 seed, but they have a consensus high lottery pick on the team.

Colgate hasn't gone away yet vs. TN.

edit: If Colgate pulls off a 15 seed stunner, Lassus's comments will be even funnier.

edit2: And now Colgate has erased a 12 point halftime deficit to take a 2 point lead with 11 minutes remaining.
   71. Master of the Horse Posted: March 22, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5824731)
Big10 doing surprisingly well actually. Now watch Wisco crash and burn.
   72. Davo cant be eatin thirty hot dogs every day Posted: March 22, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5824735)
Colgate? What is this, a basketball game or a toothpaste commercial!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??
   73. Red Voodooin Posted: March 23, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5824825)
You ingrates forced me to actually fill out a bracket to keep Voodoo from winning by default.


We both got 24/32 in the first round.
   74. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: March 24, 2019 at 07:33 PM (#5824981)
Oh, God, how did Duke survive that?
   75. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 24, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5824984)
Does Duke have a horseshoe up its ass or what?

UCF up by 3, steals a pass and misses a dunk, Duke scores immediately.

UCF back up by 3 with less than 25 seconds to go, Williamson drives the lane and instead of letting him score and gettimg the ball back with the lead, UCF fouls him and gives Duke a chance to tie with a 3 point play.

Williamson then misses the free throw, but UCF doesn't block out and Duke scores off an offensive RB to take the lead.

And then UCF misses 3 shots just before the buzzer to give Duke the 1 point win.

That whole series of plays was seriously disgusting.
   76. Howie Menckel Posted: March 24, 2019 at 07:49 PM (#5824986)
no dog in the hunt, nor money in the game.

but what's the point of having a veteran official as part of the crew if you can't have him analyze whether Zion committed an offensive foul (he would have fouled out) before advancing to the basket and not only scoring but getting that foul call (fouling out the giant UCF guy)?

it wouldn't have changed the result of the game in the sense that there's no overturn. but if that was a charge, then the ref blew the critical play. if it wasn't, then let's get that analysis.
   77. spivey Posted: March 24, 2019 at 07:49 PM (#5824987)
That was extremely lucky for Duke. The missed dunk on the breakaway was the one play UCF couldn't have happen. Either just burning clock or making the dunk probably puts them in a really good spot on win expectancy. There were a number of tough calls made and not made late in the game, but I mostly didn't have a problem with how the refs called it. UCF just came a play or two short.
   78. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 24, 2019 at 08:13 PM (#5824990)
The refs weren't UCF's problem, and in fact they may have caught a break with the non-call on the shot clock violation. Their failure to execute in the final minute was what killed them, not to mention the brain fart that gave Williamson a chance for a 3 point play.
   79. Tony S Posted: March 24, 2019 at 08:15 PM (#5824991)
The missed dunk was just careless; the UCF player didn't have a great angle for dunking -- a layup would have been better advised, I believe.

Fouling Zion on that last basket wasn't sloppy, though -- it was downright dumb. I was thinking, "Oh good, it's just going to be a two-pointer."

And despite all that, UCF was one rim-out away from sending Duke packing. Great game.
   80. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: March 24, 2019 at 08:23 PM (#5824993)
I will give UCF credit for its final possession - they drove to the hoop instead of settling for a long, contested jumper, and most importantly they moved fast instead of dicking around beyond the arc for five seconds, which gave them a chance for the tip-in.
   81. puck Posted: March 24, 2019 at 08:25 PM (#5824994)
Can it be a charge if you're inside that "don't stand here" arc?
   82. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 24, 2019 at 08:33 PM (#5824996)
The missed dunk was just careless; the UCF player didn't have a great angle for dunking -- a layup would have been better advised, I believe.

Fouling Zion on that last basket wasn't sloppy, though -- it was downright dumb. I was thinking, "Oh good, it's just going to be a two-pointer."

And despite all that, UCF was one rim-out away from sending Duke packing. Great game.

I will give UCF credit for its final possession - they drove to the hoop instead of settling for a long, contested jumper, and most importantly they moved fast instead of dicking around beyond the arc for five seconds, which gave them a chance for the tip-in.

Yeah, and for all I've said about the last series of plays, UCF put the fear of God in Duke as nobody ever really thought they could. Like that ACC championship game, it could've gone either way, and with luck it'll set up a 4th Carolina-Duke game in the finals.
   83. Red Voodooin Posted: March 25, 2019 at 08:38 PM (#5825245)
I predicted it in #2 and it has certainly come to pass, this is one of the "chalkiest" tournaments to date. All the 1-2-3s made it through to the Sweet 16 and the top 14 in KenPom all survived. The lone "cinderella" team is Oregon, who was actually preseason top 10 (though the did lose Bol Bol early in the year).
   84. puck Posted: March 25, 2019 at 09:15 PM (#5825251)
Did they seed closer to the kenpom ratings? Though it must still be unusual for the sweet 16 to have 1-14 kenpom.
   85. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:36 AM (#5825297)
Did they seed closer to the kenpom ratings? Though it must still be unusual for the sweet 16 to have 1-14 kenpom.

kenpom updates itself every day, so the fact that 1-14 are in the sweet 16 is BECAUSE they're in the Sweet 16
   86. JL72 Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5825338)
Can it be a charge if you're inside that "don't stand here" arc?


The charge was against the initial defender, not Tacko. Williams had gotten called for a charge in a closer call earlier, but at that point in the game with seconds to go and so close, it would be tough to get that call against anyone, let alone Duke and Williamson.

   87. puck Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:20 AM (#5825340)
kenpom updates itself every day, so the fact that 1-14 are in the sweet 16 is BECAUSE they're in the Sweet 16


I had read somewhere that the pre tourney kenpom 1-14's are still alive. Is that not true (that article just looked at current kenpom)?
   88. Red Voodooin Posted: March 26, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5825382)
kenpom updates itself every day, so the fact that 1-14 are in the sweet 16 is BECAUSE they're in the Sweet 16


It is true that KenPom continues to update as the tournament(s) progress, but in this year's case while there was some movement within that top 14 based (for instance Duke dropped down from 3rd to 4th after surviving UCF), it remains the same 14 teams pre-tournament. At this point in the season, even highly improbably results of a single game aren't going to move the KenPom rankings that much. For instance Virginia's loss to UMBC last year (they were ranked #1 going into the tournament, #2 by the time it was all over and I don't think Villanova passed them until they had won several games themselves).
   89. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 26, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5825420)
The Internet Archive's Wayback Machine has a capture of Pomeroy's site from Sunday, March 17 (i.e., right after the last conference tournament game). Oregon is #43, LSU is #18 (tied with #17 Louisville to two decimal places), everyone else still alive is in the top 16.
   90. KronicFatigue Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:27 PM (#5826503)
This Tenn vs Purdue game has been one of the most exciting I've seen in a long time. Crowd is crazy hot too....Is there a reason the sweet 16 would have a better crowd than earlier rounds?
   91. Howie Menckel Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:52 PM (#5826513)
I think it helps to have a Tennessee team and an Indiana team face each other in (Louisville) Kentucky. If you're really into it, you can get there from there.

also both schools have decent pedigrees, but have not tasted as much success of late in The Dance. so there's hunger there.

agree it is a great game; I just started watching midway through the second half and wow, one knockout punch after another. I have absolutely zero sentiment either way, but I can't flip away. now, back to the DVR for the finish!
   92. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 28, 2019 at 09:52 PM (#5826514)
This is a hell of a game. It's in Louisville so relatively close to both schools. I imagine that's why there plenty of fans here
   93. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:26 PM (#5826533)
This UM-TT game is ridiculous. 6-6 after 11 and a half minutes.
   94. Red Voodooin Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:56 PM (#5826538)
Gonzaga really imposed their will on Florida State. I think this Zags team can win it all.
   95. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: March 28, 2019 at 11:58 PM (#5826543)
Is there a reason the sweet 16 would have a better crowd than earlier rounds?


attending the 1st/2nd round is like attending a convention. People are coming and going, rarely are the stands full, it's really a weird atmosphere. Regionals are a bit more serious, games are later, there are usually no teams with just a couple hundred fans. Louisville is perfect spot for this as noted.
   96. Howie Menckel Posted: March 29, 2019 at 12:44 AM (#5826547)
Gonzaga really imposed their will on Florida State. I think this Zags team can win it all.

maybe. but collective tight Gonzaga sphincter from the 12-minute mark to 4-minute mark.
then a team that was down by 13 points runs out of gas.

the final score looks great, but Gonzaga waited awfully long to "impose" anything.
they won't get a second opportunity to do that.
   97. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 29, 2019 at 08:48 AM (#5826567)
attending the 1st/2nd round is like attending a convention.
This is usually very true. The one exception I experienced was the #11 seed Rhode Island beat #3 seed Syracuse (with Rony Seikaly, Derrick Coleman, and Sherman Douglas) in the 2nd round of the 1988 tournament in Chapel Hill. Syracuse in that era was extremely disliked and Rhode Island wear a color that's almost Carolina blue, so it was a rollicking fun time. It almost made up for the indignity and offense of seeing #2 seed ####### Duke playing in the Dean Dome wearing their home whites.
   98. JL72 Posted: March 29, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5826617)
Syracuse in that era was extremely disliked and Rhode Island wear a color that's almost Carolina blue, so it was a rollicking fun time.


I find that seems to occur whenever the underdog is making a good showing. I saw a first round game where Hampton gave UConn everything it could handle. Except for a small section of UConn supporters, everyone else in the arena was cheering for Hampton. It was a lot of fun, even if Hampton ended up loosing by 9.
   99. Howie Menckel Posted: March 29, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5826625)
I believe the first example of that in March Madness was in 1985.
now with a 64-team bracket, anonymous teams like my alma mater, Fairleigh Dickinson, got to take on the big boys - like top seed Michigan.

well, the game was in Dayton, Ohio - and Ohio State was playing in the second game. so by the second half of the Michigan-FDU game, the Buckeyes fans are arriving. and wait, this game is tied? what's an FDU? who cares? they're tied with focking Michigan!

late in the close game, during timeouts there were 10,000+ fans chanting "FDU! FDU!" for a team that had never gotten even 1,000 fans for a home game. Michigan finally prevailed in a close game - but the "Cinderella" narrative was amplified.
   100. Red Voodooin Posted: March 29, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5826769)
maybe. but collective tight Gonzaga sphincter from the 12-minute mark to 4-minute mark.
then a team that was down by 13 points runs out of gas.

the final score looks great, but Gonzaga waited awfully long to "impose" anything.
they won't get a second opportunity to do that.


Yeah, I guess this isn't untrue. I'm an unabashed fanboy of the program and have been for about two decades now, so not at all objective here, but from my perspective we were playing another really good team -- certainly the best team the Zags have faced since December, and the the team that took them out last year in the same round, and we controlled the game from the tip. They did get within four points with four to go, Florida State's win probability got as high as 25%, and then was quickly extinguished entirely.

It certainly wasn't the pounding that Texas Tech administered last night. And this sets up a really interesting E8 matchup. The #1 defensive team in the country vs. the #1 offensive team. I think Chris Beard can maybe out-coach or out-scheme Mark Few during the game, but I think Gonzaga has too much firepower. This isn't your older brother's Gonzaga team. There is NBA talent up and down the roster.
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