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Saturday, November 03, 2018

2019 Steamer Projections Now Available! | FanGraphs Baseball

I use the projection systems as a starting point for fantasy purposes. It’s great that Steamer is out now. Slacker Dan needs to get ZiPS up too!!

Jim Furtado Posted: November 03, 2018 at 09:41 AM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, steamer

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   1. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 03, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5781576)
Homer Bailey - 35 IP of replacement level pitching.

It would cost $28M to just cut him loose, but at some point they have to seriously consider it, don't they?
   2. Jose Bautista Bobblehead Day Posted: November 03, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5781608)
Vlad Jr. is projected as the sixth-most valuable position player per 600 PA.
   3. Red Voodooin Posted: November 03, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5781625)
Steamer must be projecting that Addison Russell has further skeletons in his closet that will warrant an additional suspension this year, as they have him projected for all of 8 games and 32 at bats.
   4. puck Posted: November 03, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5781673)
Ian Desmond projected to regress in a positive direction to a 95 RC+. He was at 69 and 81 his 1st two seasons w/the Rockies. 95 would be great but it sure doesn't seem like he's coming back.

Only 3 Rockies projected to be above average (Arenado, Blackmon, Story).
   5. The Duke Posted: November 03, 2018 at 09:35 PM (#5781803)
Vlad Jr needs about 28 days of seasoning in the minors
   6. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 03, 2018 at 10:40 PM (#5781815)
Only 3 Rockies projected to be above average (Arenado, Blackmon, Story).

Position players. Plus 3 pitchers (Marquez, Job Grey, Freeman).

And technically, I think Hampson, Iannetta, and Anderson are projected as above average. Just not as a full season worth of it.
   7. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 03, 2018 at 10:41 PM (#5781816)
Also Vlad Jr is the new Matt Wieters.
   8. puck Posted: November 03, 2018 at 10:58 PM (#5781817)
Sorry, I meant batters. Aren't Hampson and Ianetta below 100 wRC+?
   9. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 04, 2018 at 05:49 AM (#5781844)
Sorry, I meant batters. Aren't Hampson and Ianetta below 100 wRC+?

Yeah slightly. But Ianetta is a catcher, and Hampson a middle infielder. You don't need a league average bat, to reach average at those positions.
   10. Jim Furtado Posted: November 04, 2018 at 09:17 AM (#5781853)
Esteban Quiroz is the biggest surprise showing for me.
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 04, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5781856)
Only 3 Rockies projected to be above average (Arenado, Blackmon, Story).


David Dahl is projected to hit .274/.320/.470, which seems pretty low to me, considering he's a lifetime .293/.341/.534 hitter and is still just 24. Maybe that's park-adjusted.
   12. Adam Starblind Posted: November 04, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5781861)
The Mets ... need to sign Manny Machado.
   13. puck Posted: November 04, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5781869)
Yeah slightly. But Ianetta is a catcher, and Hampson a middle infielder. You don't need a league average bat, to reach average at those positions.


I am aware of these things, I'm talking about the bats, a weakness for the Rockies the past two seasons.

Iannetta's projection is interesting given his age. I think Hampson is basically the incumbent at 2nd.
   14. puck Posted: November 04, 2018 at 11:22 AM (#5781871)

David Dahl is projected to hit .274/.320/.470, which seems pretty low to me, considering he's a lifetime .293/.341/.534 hitter and is still just 24. Maybe that's park-adjusted.


IIRC his projections never seem that great. He seems like a guy who could outdo his projections because he's had such a spotty playing time record in the minors and has some tools he's growing into.

Tapia and McMahon's projections never look good either. But I hope to god this is the year Desmond starts losing some playing time.
   15. Baldrick Posted: November 04, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5781873)
I am aware of these things, I'm talking about the bats, a weakness for the Rockies the past two seasons.

That's far more narrow than "Only 3 Rockies projected to be above average."

Three good hitters, plus plenty of roughly average ones (some of whom will have good years and come out above average), is a pretty normal distribution. Obviously you'd rather be the Yankees but there's plenty of teams in baseball with this profile.
   16. BillWallace Posted: November 07, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5783744)
I wonder if there's another player who:

1) Qualified last year
2) Is projected for a bigger gain than Chris Davis' 3.0 WAR pickup.

He's the early favorite for comeback player of the year with his below replacement forecast!
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: November 07, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5783746)
I wonder if there's another player who:

1) Qualified last year
2) Is projected for a bigger gain than Chris Davis' 3.0 WAR pickup.
I doubt there's anyone else who even reaches 2.0
   18. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: November 07, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5783752)
esteban quiroz is one of two interesting and unheralded middle infielders to sign out of the mexican league last year - the other is the cardinals' ramon urias (brother of luis), whose projection here isn't as good (93 ops+ - still reasonable!), though he's probably a better glove.
   19. Jim Furtado Posted: November 08, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5784440)
Thanks for the heads up on Urias.
   20. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 08, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5784476)
I wonder if there's another player who:

1) Qualified last year
2) Is projected for a bigger gain than Chris Davis' 3.0 WAR pickup.


I doubt there's anyone else who even reaches 2.0


I have faith that Mookie can get to 14.0 WAR!
   21. Khrushin it bro Posted: November 08, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5784478)
There's something wrong with these projections, Khris Davis is not projected to have a .247 batting average.
   22. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: November 20, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5789743)
Quiroz just dealt to the Padres for Colton Brewer (signed to a 40 man deal as a 6yr minor league fa last offseason).
Urias, fwiw, was just added to the Cards' 40.

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