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Wednesday, February 13, 2019

2019 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

1. Vlad
2. Franco
3. Tatis
4. Whitley
5. Robles
6. Lewis
7. Senzel
8. Jimenez
9.Bichette
10. Tucker

Franco and Whitley a little higher than some of the other lists.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 13, 2019 at 11:17 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: prospect rankings, prospects

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   1. alilisd Posted: February 13, 2019 at 12:39 PM (#5814925)
How will the Padres blow it with Tatis? The suspense is killing me!
   2. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: February 13, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5814969)
So Dave Dombrowski is probably the #1 face of "prospects are for trading" among successful GMs. The Red Sox blew through the AL East, then the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers, and won the World Series. No matter what happens the next several years, he would probably say, flags fly forever.

Consider the following facts, based on this list:

1) There are no Red Sox propsects in the Top 130, so it looks like he cashed them all out.
2) But there are only two prospects on the list the REd Sox traded away - Logan Allen and Michael Kopech.

Moncada has graduated, and the Travis Shaw trade was pretty awful, and a few others (Margot) are playing the bigs, albeit not that well. But the reality is that most of the people traded away by Dombrowski to get Sale, Kimbrel, and others have not panned out, or appear unlikely to pan out. He kept the guys who appear to have the best chance to pan out (Devers, Benintendi), and there are several prospect the REd Sox did *not* trade who, in hindsight, would have delivered more value had they been traded (Swihart, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens).

So how much of this is that Dombrowski knew who to trade, and knew who to keep; and how much of this is that most propsects don't pan out, so just let it rip; and how much of it is, basically, luck?
   3. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: February 13, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5814976)
So how much of this is that Dombrowski knew who to trade, and knew who to keep; and how much of this is that most propsects don't pan out, so just let it rip; and how much of it is, basically, luck?


I think the good GMs (and Dombrowski is certainly on that list) are able to make calculated decisions about who to keep and who not to keep. I don't think it's an accident that the two best players on your arbitrary list are the two guys the Sox kept. When you get into prospects there is always an element of luck but the good GMs and good organizations are going to get it right more often than not.

The thing that Dombrowski does that I like on these deals is he doesn't #### around. He needed a starter, he got arguably the best starter in the American League. He needed a closer, he got arguably the best closer in baseball.

I've long been of the opinion that while it's an oversimplification you always trade your prospects for MLB talent. Obviously you can't literally "always" do that but because of the miss rate on even the best prospects if you are getting a guy who has proven he can do it at the big league level you are more likely than not going to win the trade.
   4. Karl from NY Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5815003)
#3, the most notable recent exception has to be RA Dickey for Syndergaard, right?
   5. DCA Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:36 PM (#5815029)
He kept the guys who appear to have the best chance to pan out (Devers, Benintendi)

I'm not sure that Moncada and Kopech aren't more likely to pan out than Devers. Counting defense, Moncada was better than Devers in MLB in 2017 and 2018. Kopech injured but TJ is something you can come back from.

Benintendi was always a high floor guy, it's no surprise he has panned out the best so far (not as good as Shaw though). The other three are more high ceiling types, I'd expect one of the three to exceed Benintendi over the next 4 years but don't ask me which one.
   6. DCA Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:42 PM (#5815034)
#3, the most notable recent exception has to be RA Dickey for Syndergaard, right?

That's a miss, mostly because Dickey immediately regressed to league-average innings eater (though making every start and going >6 innings on average does have significant value). At the time, the prospect package was headlined not by Thor but by Travis d'Arnaud who hasn't panned out.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:19 PM (#5815043)
I'm pretty sure the most notable recent exception is Gleyber Torres for 2 months of Chapman but possibly I'm not the most objective. :-)

If memory serves Dickey was an odd case ... but check my facts. My memory is the Mets wanted to extend him, claimed he made outrageous demands, traded him then he signed a very reasonable deal with Toronto. But if my memory's correct, the Mets got an incredible haul under those circumstances.

Anyway, Toronto kinda got what they wanted when they wanted it -- 4 years, 7 WAR, >800 innings for, apparently, $41 M. Syndergaard has been a pitcher of much higher quality (11 WAR) but quite fragile (<550 IP) and didn't pitch in the majors in 2013-14. But d'Arnaud was also pretty highly regarded at the time so to get two propsects of that caliber for Dickey was a quite good trade.

Tor actually finished last in the ALE in 2013, middle 2014 then won the ALE in 2015 and made a WC in 2016 -- Dickey contributed, especially in 2015, but wasn't a huge factor.

So there are lots of potential lessons in that trade. (1) If you're gonna include two toppish prospects in a trade, you should be getting a stud (Sale) in return; (2) all the Mets had to trade (I think) was one year of Diekey, why would you give up top value for that? (3) sure, he had the knuckler and the break-out but he was still 38 years old; (r) but the key part of a trade like that is the "time value of wins" -- Syndergaard (Torres, Eloy Jimenez) is still a couple of seasons away from debuting and, given the general nature of prospects, probably 4 years away from being actually good, so if you need/want wins over the next 2-4 years ...

So trading for Sale on a team-friendly contract for the next few years is close to the perfect return in such a trade -- likely big short-term impact, known and cheap cost. Jimenez for Quintana was supposed to be like that but Q has been pretty mediocre since coming to the Cubs. Torres for Chapman was the sort of trade we just don't see much of anymore although Chapman certainly is one of the best relievers in the game (and flags fly forever).

There's also possibly a lesson about teams like the Cubs, Sox, Yanks, Dodgers, etc. When you're rich, you know you're never going to stink (unless you do so intentionally) or at least not for very long. Toronto might have felt like they had to take their shot while they had it even if they knew there was some pain ahead. The Red Sox could take their shot knowing full well that they can still be running a $200 M payroll in 2021 so even if the prospect cupboard is bare and $30 M of that is going to Betts, they know they won't suck and can probably at worst keep themselves on the fringes of the WC race.

As to which prospects to trade and who to keep -- that's probably more luck than anything ... or at least idiosyncracies. I mean (based on stories at the time) it certainly seems like the Cubs could have traded Schwarber instead of Torres and maybe even have gotten Miller for 2+ years rather than Chapman for 2 months but Theo really seems to have a thing for Schwarber -- maybe the right call, maybe just idiosyncratic. Cuz that works the other way too -- often it's the second prospect, even if it's not a top-rated guy, that bites you. Lord knows Jimenez for Q isn't looking so good right now but it's really going to sting if Dylan Cease turns into Syndergaard. Corey Kluber was just a guy traded for Jake Westbrook (or Ryan Ludwick depending on how you want to look at it), never even made a top 100 list.

That said, the Yanks haven't given up a prospect that turned into anything in ages. The Cards seem good at that with prospects, not so much anymore with young MLers though.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5815047)
At the time of the trade, Shaw was 27, had nearly 800 PAs in the majors and had never been in a top 100 list along the way -- he was in no useful definition a "prospect." The trade certainly turned out to be a mistake and Shaw really took off but that's a late-bloomer.
   9. SandyRiver Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:52 PM (#5815054)
In Shaw's final Boston season, his April-May OPS was .865, rest of season .635. Who knew that the first part was closer to what he'd do the next 2 years? (Of course, the Sox have made a number of questionable [terrible] deals to acquire bullpen help in recent years, Kimbrel the exception.)
   10. alilisd Posted: February 13, 2019 at 07:29 PM (#5815126)
2) But there are only two prospects on the list the REd Sox traded away - Logan Allen and Michael Kopech.


Didn't Anderson Espinoza show up down list? Or was that before Dombrowski came on board?
   11. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: February 13, 2019 at 08:36 PM (#5815136)
I stand corrected - I missed Anderson Espinoza...although he is in A ball, coming off of significant elbow surgery.

And that was definitely classic Dombrowski: He gave a top 50 prospect for Drew Pomeranz, straight up...and despite the fact Pomeranz was worthless in 2018, the Red Sox still came ahead in the deal
   12. bbmck Posted: February 13, 2019 at 09:39 PM (#5815143)
40 players debuted since 2015 and have at least one season of 3+ position player WAR. 27 and Jung Ho Kang haven't changed franchises yet.

Traded before and after MLB debut:
MIL Mitch Haniger with Anthony Banda for ARI Gerardo Parra; ARI Mitch Haniger, Zac Curtis and Jean Segura for SEA Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker
CLE Joey Wendle for OAK Brandon Moss; OAK Joey Wendle for TBR Jonah Heim
SDP Mallex Smith for ATL Justin Upton; MLB debut; ATL Mallex Smith in 3 team for SEA Luiz Gohara; TBR Mallex Smith for SEA Mike Zunino - all package deals, 15 other players have been involved in Mallex trades

Traded after MLB debut:
BOS Travis Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington and Yeison Coca for MIL Tyler Thornburg
SEA Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker for ARI Mitch Haniger, Zac Curtis and Jean Segura
STL Stephen Piscotty for OAK Max Schrock and Yairo Munoz
STL Aledmys Díaz for TOR JB Woodman; TOR Aledmys Díaz for HOU Trent Thornton

Traded before MLB debut:
SDP Trea Turner is the PTBNL in a 3 team trade where the main Padres target is TBR Wil Myers
OAK Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily for CHC Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija
DET Devon Travis for TOR Anthony Gose

Other:
TEX Odúbel Herrera to PHI by Rule 5 draft before MLB debut
OAK Max Muncy released, signed as FA with LAD
PIT Jung Ho Kang bought out of contract, signed as FA with PIT
   13. bbmck Posted: February 13, 2019 at 10:08 PM (#5815147)
23 players debuted since 2015 and have at least one season of 3+ pitching WAR. 10 haven't changed franchises yet.

Traded after MLB debut:
WSN Reynaldo López, Dane Dunning and Lucas Giolito for CHW Adam Eaton
SEA Edwin Díaz and Robinson Cano for NYM Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Gerson Bautista, Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak

Traded before MLB debut:
TBR German Márquez and Jake McGee for COL Kevin Padlo and Corey Dickerson
LAA Mike Clevinger for CLE Vinnie Pestano
TOR Noah Syndergaard, Wuilmer Becerra, John Buck and Travis d'Arnaud for NYM RA Dickey, Mike Nickeas and Josh Thole
NYM Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa for DET Yoenis Cespedes
MIA Trevor Williams for PIT Richard Mitchell

BAL Eduardo Rodríguez for BOS Andrew Miller
CHC Zack Godley and Jeferson Mejia for ARI Miguel Montero
KCR Sean Manaea and Aaron Brooks for OAK Ben Zobrist
TEX Jerad Eickhoff, Jorge Alfaro, Alec Asher, Matt Harrison, Jake Thompson and Nick Williams for PHI Jake Diekman and Cole Hamels

Other:
ARI Brad Keller to CIN by Rule 5 draft and then to KCR for PTBNL or cash before MLB debut
ATL Junior Guerra released; NYM Junior Guerra released; signs with CHW; MLB debut; selected off waivers by MIL
   14. alilisd Posted: February 14, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5815287)
And that was definitely classic Dombrowski: He gave a top 50 prospect for Drew Pomeranz, straight up...and despite the fact Pomeranz was worthless in 2018, the Red Sox still came ahead in the deal


Way too early to make that call. Sure, Espinoza had TJ, but obviously a lot of people still consider him to be extremely talented. Give it another couple seasons and if he hasn't come back from the surgery, I'll concede the win :-)
   15. alilisd Posted: February 14, 2019 at 12:20 PM (#5815289)
SDP Trea Turner is the PTBNL in a 3 team trade where the main Padres target is TBR Wil Myers


Seems like a possibility for them to screw up Tatis. Maybe Preller trades him for a solid, injury prone hitter, who they then move all over the field defensively in an effort to avoid letting him get comfortable and grow into a better player. Yeah, that's a very Padres move.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 14, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5815366)
But there are only two prospects on the list the REd Sox traded away - Logan Allen and Michael Kopech.


Basabe can't have missed the back end of that list by too much.

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