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Monday, July 15, 2019

2019 Trade Value: Intro and Honorable Mentions | FanGraphs Baseball

For those new to the series, it represents an attempt to answer the question “Who would bring back the most in trade if he were put on the market before the deadline?” What’s notable about this list — as opposed to the prospect lists I assemble with Eric Longenhagen — is that my opinion doesn’t matter. The goal here isn’t for me to project anyone’s future value but rather to capture the opinions of the industry and express how it values players in reality, right now.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 15, 2019 at 12:15 PM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: trade value

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   1. Master of the Horse Posted: July 16, 2019 at 01:09 PM (#5862269)
The 41-50 list is posted at the site and Woody made it for the Crew. With Yelich being signed cheap (thanks Marlins!!) and being Barry Bonds almost he has to be in the top 5.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2019 at 06:08 PM (#5862378)
my opinion doesn’t matter. The goal here isn’t for me to project anyone’s future value but rather to capture the opinions of the industry and express how it values players in reality, right now.

Since when? This list has always been about "this guy will produce X going forward and has Y years of team control left."

There's also a very silly statement that a big-market team like the Dodgers would not be interested in Whit Merrifield because they'd see him as a 2-3 WAR player in decline while their system churns out 2 WAR players regularly. They'd be more interested in a high-risk young pitcher.

Now (1) this is the Dodgers who signed Justin Turner and AJ Pollock, traded for Russell Martin and signed Freese. (2) This is the Dodgers playing a mix of Hernandez and Taylor at 2B. (3) The Dodgers who churn out Buehler, Urias and Stripling as reliably as they do Max Muncy. They have shown a penchant for VETERAN dominant starters with high injury risk, I believe essentially as a strategy to build 3-4 high-priced dominant rotation slots out of 5-6 (mostly not quite so) high-priced guys.

In short, I have little doubt the Dodgers would have fallen over themselves for Merrifield if he'd been an FA. I'm highly confident they would have much rather had him than Pollock. I haven't thought about it deeply but if anybody is gonna be able to pull off a trade for Merrifield this year, I'm pretty sure the Dodgers are my #1 candidate -- they need help at 2B, they're dominating and I'm sure they're tired of losing the WS. (Red Sox #2 probably. Mostly I don't think Merrifield is going anywhere.)

But more so, big-budget teams have a long history of acquiring solid to good, starting quality players to fill holes because such teams always have a strong short-term focus. The Yanks were missing Didi for half a season and they went out and got LeMahieu and Tulo, they kept Gardner around, they traded for EE (whoa! he has slumped badly). This is one of the major advantages of having a big budget -- you don't (usually) have to mess around with a Chris Taylor (or Gino Urshela) if you don't want to or they don't pan out. The Dodgers decide they need a back-up C so they trade for Martin; the Cubs have an emergency (we hope just an emergency) need for a back-up C and they trade for Maldonado. A few years ago, the Cubs didn't look at Zobrist like a guy in his 30s in decline, they saw a good player with positional flexibility who could fill a couple of holes for a couple of years and if they had to sign onto 4 years to get those 2, they were OK with that. Picking up guys like Merrifield off of smaller-budget teams that are out of it and looking to move money is what big budget teams do anytime they have the prospects to do it.

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