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Monday, November 04, 2019

2020 MODERN BASEBALL ERA BALLOT

Nine former big league players and one executive comprise the 10-name Modern Baseball Era ballot to be reviewed and voted upon Dec. 8 at the Baseball Winter Meetings.

Dwight Evans, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Marvin Miller, Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Ted Simmons and Lou Whitaker are the candidates the Modern Baseball Era Committee will consider for Hall of Fame election for the Class of 2020. All candidates are former players except for Miller, who was the head of the Major League Baseball Players Association from 1966-82. All candidates except for Miller and Munson are living.

Any candidate who receives votes on 75 percent of the ballots cast by the 16-member Modern Baseball Era Committee will earn election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and will be inducted in Cooperstown on July 26, 2020, along with any electees who emerge from the 2020 Baseball Writers’ Association of America election, to be announced on Jan. 21, 2020.

The Modern Baseball Era is one of four Era Committees, each of which provide an avenue for Hall of Fame consideration to managers, umpires and executives, as well as players retired for more than 15 seasons.

The BBHOF season has now started- what say we concerning this ballot?

 

QLE Posted: November 04, 2019 at 05:01 PM | 242 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dale murphy, dave parker, don mattingly, dwight evans, hall of fame, lou whitaker, marvin miller, steve garvey, ted simmons, thurman munson, tommy john, veterans committee

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   201. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: November 07, 2019 at 07:01 PM (#5899581)
And if you don't need WAR to come to that conclusion, why would anyone ever say something like "Lou Whitaker was better than Dave Parker because he had more WAR"?


Because Whitaker was an excellent fielding second baseman who was almost as good a hitter as a bad fielding RF who spent a lot of time at DH? Now, one could argue that Parker's late career dragged his numbers down, and he was really a better hitter than his 121 OPS+ suggests, and that would be a fair argument, but then you have to deduct the 123 HR and 516 RBI he compiled in his last 6 seasons, and now you are arguing that a RF with 216 HR and 977 RBI with 130 OPS+ in 6500 PA should be in the Hall. If you induct everyone with that career profile with a similar peak, how many more people should be inducted? OTTOMH, Albert Belle was far better than that. Ditto Dick Allen. Juan Gone minus his decline years was very similar, but with an extra MVP. Ryan Braun was better than that truncated Parker. Jim Edmonds. Plenty of players who are merely as good: Lance Berkman, Brian Giles, Matt Holliday, Nelson Cruz. How about Jose Bautista? he fits the Parker profile pretty well, other than his crap years came at the beginning of his career.
   202. PreservedFish Posted: November 07, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5899588)
Why do I get the feeling than in a different thread, Mr. Dot would be railing at the notion that Kevin Appier would be a better HOF candidate than Tom Glavine?

I can't speak for Mr. Dot, and while we're apparent teammates in this particular debate, would certainly not hope that anyone has confused my words for his.
   203. Booey Posted: November 07, 2019 at 07:54 PM (#5899589)
#201 - Yep. That's my main disagreement with the heavily peak leaning voters when they start advocating for guys like Murphy or Parker or Mattingly; the peaks of those players - while impressive - just aren't as rare as they think. It's not THAT uncommon for someone to play like a HOFer for a stretch of 5, 6, 7 years. You can't induct them all. The ones who actually get inducted are the ones who keep adding value beyond that. That seems like a perfectly reasonable way to define the in/out line to me.

If you want to make the Hall based solely on 5-7 great years, that peak better be damn near inner circle (see Koufax), not merely a "regular" HOF pace.
   204. QLE Posted: November 08, 2019 at 02:14 AM (#5899626)
To offer my belated thoughts:

I have an approach of my own to sort baseball talent, that lists four attributes in one line, that I find useful as a balance between peak-obsessed and career-obsessed approaches to assessing talent.

For all positions players but catcher:

-Number of seasons with 5+ bWAR;
-Number of seasons in the top 10 for bWAR;
-Number of seasons in the top 10 for position;
-Combined bWAR for the best ten seasons in a career.

For the six position players who weren't predominantly catchers on this ballot:

Whitaker: 4/2/3/50.7 (52.2)
Evans: 4/2/2/48.9 (52.2)
Murphy: 6/4/5/47.1 (48.0)
Mattingly: 4/3/4/42.5
Parker: 4/3/4/40.6
Garvey: 1/0/2/34.2 (35.1)

It should be noted that these raw numbers are complicated by the 1981 strike. Mattingly wasn't in the majors until the following season and Parker was at replacement level- the other four have adjusted numbers in the parentheses.

For position players other than catcher, I'd expect a combined bWAR of 50. Whitaker is clearly over that line and Evans makes it after adjustments (though, in his case, some caution may be needed- given that this would have been his best year ever by a substantial margin, there is a risk that isn't as present for the other three).

As for the other four: Murphy (as others have noted) fits in a group with Garciaparra, Fregosi, and others of players who were one all-star level season of play away from meriting BBHOF induction before falling apart. Parker is an interesting what-if, as it's rather clear looking at his career record that the five years or so he lost in the early 1980s due to his addictions are what keeps him out of the BBHOF. Mattingly is a cut below the other two- his best years aren't as good as Murphy's or Parker's, and, while he was better outside of those years, it isn't by enough to come close to induction. Garvey, finally, is clearly a very poor candidate- without his celebrity in the 1970s and 1980s (rooted, ultimately, in what media market he played in and the quality of the Dodgers overall in those years), he'd never be on this ballot.

Another way of looking at it involves considerations by position. By my calculations (which, I must admit upfront, are not complete for the nineteenth century), Whitaker is roughly the sixteenth or so best second baseman in MLB history, and the only people better than him not in the BBHOF are Grich and two players (Cano and Utley) who aren't eligible yet for consideration. Evans is around twenty-second or so among right fielders: among eligible players, the ones better than him not in the BBHOF are Walker, Bobby Bonds, and the not-yet-eligible Suzuki. Murphy is not better than twentieth among center fielders, with Andruw Jones, the not-yet-eligible Beltran, Edmonds, Lofton, Wynn, Pinson, and Chet Lemon all ahead of him and Cedeno and Willie Davis not far behind him. Mattingly is behind a crowd of first basemen, including both ones who we support for the BBHOF (Pujols, Cabrera, Helton, McGwire, Hernandez, Palmeiro) and ones less popular here (McGriff, Will Clark, Hodges, Cash, Camilli). There are a crowd of right fielders between Evans and Parker (Sheffield, Giles, Oliva, Jack Clark, to name four). I haven't even begun calculating the first basemen who merit it more than Garvey- for now, let it suffice to say that Boog Powell is one of them.

Overall, then, of this group, the only ones I can see clearly meriting induction are Whitaker and Evans- the other four are, to varying degrees, short, with Murphy substantially closer and Garvey much farther behind.
   205. QLE Posted: November 08, 2019 at 05:49 AM (#5899631)
Now, as for the three other categories:

For catchers, I use the same approach as above, with one important exception: My system gives catchers a 25% relative bonus, reflecting their usage patterns. As a result, my first log listing is for seasons of 4+ bWAR, and my assumptions are that 40 bWAR equals 50 from any other position.

The catchers:

Munson: 6/1/2/45.8
Simmons: 7/1/5/45.4

By my estimates, there are twelve catchers (Gibson, Bench, Carter, Piazza, Rodriguez, Ewing, Fisk, Cochrane, Berra, Mauer, Campanella, and Charlie Bennett) who are better than these two under this system, and all but Bennett and the not-yet-eligible Mauer have been inducted into the BBHOF. Not only do both belong, but there's a case to make that they are the two most deserving candidates on the ballot.

With pitchers, these calculations are more complicated- a comparison of various systems of WAR demonstrate that pitchers can have variance in their calculations beyond that for position players, and that the nature of what is contested involving pitcher WAR makes these calculations more subjective than they would be for position players.

The pitcher on the ballot:

John: 4/1/4/42.6

Even given the above qualms, I can't bring myself to make a case for John- there are several pitchers at the same time who had similar trajectories, and, while Don Sutton (who he seems most similar to) is in the BBHOF, I'm inclined to regard that as a mistake caused by his win-loss record. As for the surgery: if that merits induction (and I'm not convinced it does, unless we let the doors open really wide for contributors), that's more a reason for Frank Jobe to be inducted.

This leaves Marvin Miller, who, as a non-player, is obviously irrelevant to my system. I am inclined to believe his contributions to the game merit his induction (he certainly deserves it far more than Bowie Kuhn did)- the question becomes one of making ballot room. In my case, I find room by having him replace Evans (with Munson, Simmons, and Whitaker making up the rest of my ballot)- your milage may vary. Overall, this does confirm that there are good reasons why, traditionally, non-players were considered separately from players.
   206. sgt23 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 10:04 AM (#5899930)
I getting kind of tired of hearing Trout is the best player ever. He was comparable to Lance Berkman up to this point in his career. Berkman started having injury problem and was never the same.
   207. sgt23 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 10:12 AM (#5899931)
I really don't care that you people think that the metric system is important for baseball, what is important to me is what I seen and heard when these guys played. Murphy played on bad teams and was the better complete player. The braves would of never made it to the playoffs in the 80's without him.
   208. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 09, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5899937)
Mike Trout won the MVP at an age when Lance Berkman was not yet playing in the majors.
   209. QLE Posted: November 10, 2019 at 12:29 AM (#5900152)
A bit of a bump, to ask a question:

The Hall of Merit has tended to run parallel votes involving the candidates of the various Veterans Committees, in addition to their own vote.

I have not been a regular participant in that organization- as such, should I be the one to set up such a vote this year, or should I leave it to one of the regulars?

Thank you for your advice on this matter.
   210. bachslunch Posted: November 10, 2019 at 04:57 AM (#5900154)
Re the HoM: I just posted up a ballot in the discussion thread the first year I chose to begin. I had lurked a bit beforehand to see what others did, formed my own criteria for ranking, and prepared a post. In it, I explained that I was a first time voter.

When the thread to actually post up a finished ballot began that year, I pretty much repeated the process, incorporating any changes I’d decided on since.

I didn’t need to get any kind of official permission, but I did take seriously the requirement to defend your thinking. I keep things simple, pretty much based on bWAR with a few minor adjustments.

I say give it a whirl if you’re interested.
   211. Lassus Posted: November 10, 2019 at 06:42 AM (#5900155)
   212. Rally Posted: November 10, 2019 at 10:35 AM (#5900159)
Dale Murphy’s playoff experience is 3 games in 1982, his Braves were swept by the Cardinals. He had 3 singles in 11 at bats. That record isn’t going to put him ahead of anyone.
   213. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 10, 2019 at 10:37 AM (#5900160)
Vote Aye:
Lou Whitaker - Clearly deserving. Should have been voted in by the writers instead of getting dropped so quickly.
Marvin Miller - Though if really pressed by people who knew him that he really wouldn't want to be in the HOF then I'd pass, but he deserves to be in.
Dwight Evans - Also clearly deserving, and should have been voted in by the writers.
Thurman Munson - dude literally died when he was still an above average player. We don't know how the rest of his career would have looked, but he was already approaching potential HOF status as a catcher. Perhaps he's a 0 WAR player from August 2, 1979 in the alternate timeline where the plane crash didn't happen, but he's more likely to have ended up around ~28 WAA and ~55 WAR. That's HoF quality for a catcher.
Ted Simmons - Catcher get no credit for playing the toughest job in baseball.

Vote Nay:
Steve Garvey - lol.
Tommy John - Right on the borderline, I can see how someone who's a career voter would put him in.
Don Mattingly - Hall of Very Good, let down by his back. He and David Wright should have back to back statues when I finally get around to creating the Garden of Very Good.
Dale Murphy - Another Hall of Very Good, though his career before Age 32 was on a HoF track.
Dave Parker - Honestly, I thought he was better than he was before I went to look at his numbers.
   214. DL from MN Posted: November 11, 2019 at 11:19 AM (#5900323)
The Hall of Merit has tended to run parallel votes involving the candidates of the various Veterans Committees, in addition to their own vote.

I have not been a regular participant in that organization- as such, should I be the one to set up such a vote this year, or should I leave it to one of the regulars?


I can run it. I don't mind if someone else runs it but the general rule is if you're going to post the thread be prepared to count all the votes.
   215. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 11, 2019 at 12:34 PM (#5900347)
I getting kind of tired of hearing Trout is the best player ever. He was comparable to Lance Berkman up to this point in his career. Berkman started having injury problem and was never the same.


lolwut?

Through age 27:

Trout has 2 MVP, 4 2nd-place finishes, and a 4th (and will be either first or 2nd this year). He has led the league in runs 4 times, rbi once, stolen bases once, ob% 4 times, slg% 3 times, ops 4 times.

Berkman had a 3rd and 5th MVP finishes, and led the league in doubles and rbi once each. Granted, he was playing with Steroid Barry and young Pujols (who is a much better comp for Trout, btw. Maybe you meant him instead of Berkman?), so, not much chance to lead the league in ob% or slg% during those years.
   216. QLE Posted: November 11, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5900378)
I can run it. I don't mind if someone else runs it but the general rule is if you're going to post the thread be prepared to count all the votes.


Fair enough- in that case, I leave it in your hands.
   217. DL from MN Posted: November 11, 2019 at 04:24 PM (#5900397)
Ballot thread is up. Please keep discussion over here to make the ballot thread easier to navigate.

BTW - our results from the last time this era was up for election:
Player Name  Percent TOTALS
Alan Trammell  94% 61
Marvin Miller  68% 44
Ted Simmons  62% 40
Luis Tiant  40% 26
Tommy John  26% 17
Dale Murphy  14% 9
Jack Morris  8% 5
Dave Parker  6% 4
Don Mattingly  2% 1
Steve Garvey  0% 0
NumVoters   65
   218. DL from MN Posted: November 11, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5900402)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/mock_2020_modern_baseball_ballot/
   219. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 11, 2019 at 07:29 PM (#5900434)
I getting kind of tired of hearing Trout is the best player ever. He was comparable to Lance Berkman up to this point in his career. Berkman started having injury problem and was never the same.


lolwut?


I think the comparison is based on BA/OBP/SLG, which are pretty similar for Trout and Berkman through 27. Of course, Trout is in a lower-offense era, has far more volume, plays better defense, and runs the bases far better. But apart from that, yes, they're almost identical.

In other words: lolwut?
   220. bbmck Posted: November 11, 2019 at 08:36 PM (#5900451)
Debut since 1981, min 1000 PA through Age 27 season ranked by OPS+:

1. Frank Thomas 183 OPS+, 3492 PA, 323/450/593, 16 for 29 SB, -9 dWAR
2. Mike Trout 176 OPS+, 5273 PA, 305/419/581, 200 for 236 SB, 3.1 dWAR
3. Albert Pujols 167 OPS+, 4741 PA, 332/420/620, 38 for 61 SB, 1.5 dWAR

T26. Andrew McCutchen 143 OPS+, 3819 PA, 299/385/498, 143 for 193 SB, -1.3 dWAR
T26. Prince Fielder 143 OPS+, 4210 PA, 282/390/540, 16 for 26 SB, -13.7 dWAR
T26. Lance Berkman 143 OPS+, 2561 PA, 300/407/562, 31 for 50 SB, -2.9 dWAR

By OPS, Trout is 5th also trailing Todd Helton and Ryan Howard and Lance Berkman is 8th also trailing Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero.
   221. Howie Menckel Posted: November 11, 2019 at 09:08 PM (#5900459)
Trout is in a lower-offense era, has far more volume, plays better defense, and runs the bases far better. But apart from that, yes, they're almost identical.

well, sure there is that. and that. and that. and that.

but still!
   222. sgt23 Posted: November 11, 2019 at 09:47 PM (#5900474)
Since we has anyone cared about defense except for Ozzie Smith? Andruw Jones would be in by now if that mattered.
   223. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 11, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5900490)
Andruw Jones might be in if he hadn't ate his way out of the league. I can't think of many inducted players who were perceived as underachievers.
   224. DL from MN Posted: November 12, 2019 at 03:52 PM (#5900632)
Here's a history of how these candidates have been treated by the Hall of Merit. The Hall of Merit has perpetual eligibility so everyone but Miller is still eligible if they haven't been elected.

Dwight Evans - elected first ballot 1997, top vote getter
Steve Garvey - never appeared in the top 10 in an election, didn't receive a vote in 2019
Tommy John - never appeared in the top 10 in an election, finished 23rd in 2019
Don Mattingly - never appeared in the top 10 in an election, didn't receive a vote in 2019
Thurman Munson- never appeared in the top 10 in an election, finished 14th in 2019
Dale Murphy - never appeared in the top 10 in an election, tied for 76th in 2019
Dave Parker - never appeared in the top 10 in an election, didn't receive a vote in 2019
Ted Simmons - elected first ballot 1994, runner-up in the voting to Phil Niekro and ahead of Don Sutton
Lou Whitaker - elected first ballot 2001, runner-up in the voting to Dave Winfield and ahead of Willie Randolph
   225. cookiedabookie Posted: November 12, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5900637)
Here's a history of how these candidates have been treated by the Hall of Merit. The Hall of Merit has perpetual eligibility so everyone but Miller is still eligible if they haven't been elected.


I think Simmons and Whitaker get in this year. I'm hoping Evans and Munson do enough to get a shot on the next ballot. I'm afraid Garvey gets elected, but that's hopefully Baines-related PTSD talking. And I wouldn't be surprised, nor all that angry, if Murphy sneaks in.
   226. DL from MN Posted: November 12, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5900640)
Other players from the "modern baseball" era elected by the Hall of Merit but not the Hall of Fame

Bobby Grich - 1992, first ballot
Darrell Evans - 1995, first ballot
Keith Hernandez - 1996, first ballot
Willie Randolph - 2001
Dave Stieb - 2002
Graig Nettles - 2006, first ballot
Mark McGwire - 2007, first ballot
Bret Saberhagen - 2008
Reggie Smith - 2009
Rick Reuschel - 2012

   227. DL from MN Posted: November 12, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5900644)
MMP voting results for each candidate

Dwight Evans - 5 seasons receiving votes, best finish 2nd in 1981 - AL MMP
Steve Garvey - 1 season receiving votes, 25th place in 1974
Tommy John - 1 season receiving votes, 17th place in 1979
Don Mattingly - 4 seasons receiving votes, best finish 4th place 1986
Thurman Munson - 2 seasons receiving votes, best finish 13th place 1973
Dale Murphy - 6 seasons receiving votes, best finish 5th place 1983
Dave Parker - 4 seasons receiving votes, best finish 3rd place 1978 - NL MMP
Ted Simmons - 6 seasons receiving votes, best finish 7th place 1978
Lou Whitaker - 4 seasons receiving votes, best finish 13th place 1983 and 1991
   228. Buck Coats Posted: November 12, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5900670)
Isn't David Cone also HoM but not HoF? Or is he not in that era?
   229. QLE Posted: November 13, 2019 at 04:26 AM (#5900741)
Isn't David Cone also HoM but not HoF? Or is he not in that era?


David Cone is in the Hall of Merit- but, given the timing of when he played (not starting until 1986, for instance), the belief is that he's a candidate for the Today's Game committee, which isn't scheduled to meet again for two years.
   230. DanG Posted: November 13, 2019 at 08:07 AM (#5900749)
Other players from the "modern baseball" era elected by the Hall of Merit but not the Hall of Fame

Mark McGwire - 2007, first ballot
Bret Saberhagen - 2008
These two are "Today's Game" era candidates.
   231. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5900780)
Thanks for the correction, the cutoff line is pretty blurry. I get why McGwire (rookie 1987) doesn't fit but why not Saberhagen (rookie 1984)? He's definitely a contemporary of Mattingly.
   232. DanG Posted: November 13, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5900886)
The cutoff line IS blurry, especially in the case of a player like Mattingly, who accrued more playing time in the Today's Game era (1988-2005) but had more value in the Modern Game era (1970-87). However, nearly the entirety of Donnie's HOF case lies in what he did 1984-87, compiling most of his career WAR and all of his 23 points of Black Ink. I've also noticed that HOF candidates retiring in 1995 or earlier are almost universally listed with the Modern Game candidates.

With Saberhagen, it's pretty clear that he's a Today's Game candidate. In his first 4 years (1984-87) he had 806 IP, 55 W, and 18.6 WAR. In his last 12 years (1988-2001) he had 1757 IP, 112 W, and 40.4 WAR. Eight of his top ten years in WAR(including his best season) were in the Today's Game era.
   233. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5900893)
Ballot thread is up. Please keep discussion over here to make the ballot thread easier to navigate.

What are the voting rules?
   234. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5900900)
Same voting rules as the Hall of Fame vote. Anyone can vote 0-4 names.
   235. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5900904)
Same voting rules as the Hall of Fame vote. Anyone can vote 0-4 names.

Thanks! Where is the thread to vote?
   236. bachslunch Posted: November 13, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5900910)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/mock_2020_modern_baseball_ballot/
   237. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 13, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5900916)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/hall_of_merit/discussion/mock_2020_modern_baseball_ballot/

Thanks!
   238. Al "Battery" Kaline Posted: November 13, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5900921)
If Whitaker is "Sweet" Lou, what is Piniella?
   239. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2019 at 03:58 PM (#5900934)
If Whitaker is "Sweet" Lou, what is Piniella?


Sour?
   240. ajnrules Posted: November 13, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5900972)
If Whitaker is "Sweet" Lou, what is Piniella?

There are more than one catchers named "Pudge" so why can't there be two players named "Sweet Lou"?
   241. Rennie's Tenet Posted: November 15, 2019 at 06:00 PM (#5901561)
Sweet Lou for me is basketball's Lou Hudson. Just looking him up, I saw that he and the Lions tight end Charlie Sanders graduated from the same high school in 1962 and 1964, respectively. That's a pretty powerful doubling up.
   242. baxter Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:41 PM (#5901574)
Hudson yes; in baseball, Lou Johnson; thought he did better in 1965 for LA than the stats show; remembered as being a difference maker for that club.
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