Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, July 03, 2014

538: Keri: The Giants Clustered Their Luck

With that win, they improved to 42-21. A year after stumbling to a 76-86 record, the Giants owned the best record in baseball. They’ve been terrible ever since. San Francisco has lost 16 of its last 21 games, the worst record for any major league team during that time…Few could have predicted such a sharp and sudden drop. But one indicator did suggest that regression was coming, sooner or later: cluster luck.

In a late-May Grantland column, I wrote about the concept of cluster luck as a way to explain how a series of good (or bad) events coming one after another can propel or punish a team:

Joe Peta, a former Wall Street trader, presented cluster luck in his book, Trading Bases. Essentially, the concept boils down to this: When a team’s batters cluster hits together to score more runs and a team’s pitchers spread hits apart to allow fewer runs, that’s cluster luck. Say a team tallies nine singles in one game. If all of those singles occur in the same inning, the team would likely score seven runs; if each single occurs in a different inning, however, it’d likely mean a shutout.

clusterunluck leads to, ...well, you know…

Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:15 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: clusterluck, giants

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
rr
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP - September 2015: Making Sense Of The Republican Presidential Race: It's Like Major League Baseball In August
(358 - 1:23pm, Sep 03)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogMike Mussina's Hall of Fame case is strong, so why aren't voters buying it?
(85 - 1:21pm, Sep 03)
Last: Ithaca2323

NewsblogMichael Conforto is the perfect player — just ask David Wright
(4 - 1:12pm, Sep 03)
Last: Adam Starblind

NewsblogSomeone Appears To Be Trying To Hoax The Marlins President Out Of His Job
(2 - 1:00pm, Sep 03)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-3-2015
(5 - 12:35pm, Sep 03)
Last: Misirlou is too lofty, and grabs up all the light

NewsblogThe Race for Last Place
(13 - 12:29pm, Sep 03)
Last: wjones

NewsblogBat Flipping Draws Shrugs in South Korea But Scorn in America
(39 - 12:25pm, Sep 03)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(1105 - 11:58am, Sep 03)
Last: bigglou115

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 9-3-2015
(16 - 11:42am, Sep 03)
Last: Delorians

NewsblogBloop Hits: Warren Zevon and Bill Lee | FOX Sports
(9 - 11:28am, Sep 03)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogBack to School: The Science Behind Toronto Flamethrower Marcus Stroman’s Rapid ACL Recovery «
(6 - 11:23am, Sep 03)
Last: Booey

NewsblogMatt Williams Defends Bullpen Management.
(47 - 11:14am, Sep 03)
Last: Chris Fluit

NewsblogPaging the real Rick Porcello: Two dominant starts alter perceptions - Boston Red Sox Blog - ESPN
(3 - 11:01am, Sep 03)
Last: Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - August 2015
(180 - 11:01am, Sep 03)
Last: Booey

NewsblogForbes: Maury Brown: MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Rejects Reinstatement Of 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson
(67 - 10:41am, Sep 03)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Page rendered in 0.1344 seconds
42 querie(s) executed