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Monday, January 08, 2018

A Different Sort of Debate on WAR - ADAM KAUFMAN

If you are looking to the future tie your system to a projection system. If you are looking to the past, include context. The current WAR systems end up being jack of all trades and masters of none.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 08, 2018 at 06:42 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: war

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   1. Sean Forman Posted: January 08, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5602733)
too glib, Jim.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2018 at 11:29 PM (#5603134)
By the way, this wasn't much of a different sort of debate ... it's pitcher WAR and all it really does is show that FIP is better for projection (arguably true talent) than RA9 which everybody's been saying for ages ... and who knows what WARP is doing? The effects here are really quite small -- none of them are particularly good at predicting the future and there's not a lot to prefer one to the other although fWAR comes out a bit better. It appears that most (nearly all?) of fWAR's edge is that it does a much better job than bWAR on the extremes -- i.e. for pitchers whose fWAR and bWAR differ by a lot in year 1, fWAR consistently does a better job of prediction for year 2. Given its overall edge is relatively small, it may be the case that for 95% of pitchers, it doesn't matter which you use.

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