YOU LIVE BY THE BRAD LIDGE. YOU DIE BY THE BRAD LIDGE.

I never thought I'd say this, but I LOVE JOHNNY DAMON.

This is all over - Lidge blows

It was a double, wasn't it?

helluva game

I came home right after A-Rod doubled. Why was Lidge in there for such a huge spot? Did the rest of the pen have swine flu?

The rest of the Phillies bullpen is as horrid as Lidge is.

The rest of the Phillies bullpen is as horrid as Lidge is.

Madson looked pretty good, but I guess he wasn't good for more than an inning, having thrown two of the previous three days.

"I never thought I'd say this, but I LOVE JOHNNY DAMON."

Yeah, me too. Can't say I saw that coming after Game 7 in 2004.

What's more amazing is his contract has been worth every penny. Didn't see that coming either.

Is game 5 really tomorrow? They're not bothering to skip a day?

Is game 5 really tomorrow? They're not bothering to skip a day?

why would they? never have in the past. It's 2 at one park, skip a day, three at the other park, skip a day, final two.

They had an off day between games 4 and 5 for the AL and NL Champion series.

why would they? never have in the past. It's 2 at one park, skip a day, three at the other park, skip a day, final two.

I think Tripon's pointing out the folly of doing it in the championship series, not seriously advocating it being done in the World Series.

Edit: I guess I was right.

I liked A-Rod better when he was a choker.

EDIT - deleted for being a dumb ass comment. Carry on

deleted for being a dumb ass comment.

If people start deleting all of their dumb-ass comments, this place is going to lidge.

I liked A-Rod better when he was a choker.

Every batter should "choke" as much as A-Rod has done during the postseason.

Looks like Yanks in 5 may have been the right prediction, BTW.

I think the most likely outcome right now is Yankees in 6, John; Lee > Burnett.

Still keeping hope alive here. If any team has proven they know how to choke away a big postseason series lead, it's the Yankees.

Friend of mine: "Werth staying up for another Yankee victorino!"

"Still keeping hope alive here. If any team has proven they know how to choke away a big postseason series lead, it's the Yankees."

Because it happened one time in a gazillion years?

Because it happened one time in a gazillion years?

Sour hope springs eternal.

I'm enjoying this series. Tonight's was an excellent game and outcome (speaking as a non-Yankee fan, but an AL rooter come the World Series). I'm happy A-Rod is no longer Choke-Rod.

On the topic of an excellent series ... It occurred to me that someone could quantify how excellent any post-season series is by a consistent (though subjective) point system, where points are awarded for number of times in a game the lead changes or a team comes from behind to tie the game up or the game is within a run in the late innings or goes into extra innings and so on. A game which featured some awesome performance (a la Don Larson) or won on a walk-off or a game which changed leads late would get bonus points. A series which took its full compliment of games (7 of 7 or 5 of 5) would get more points than one which was won earlier. Add all the numbers up and you could ordinately say these were the 10 best post-season series of all-time. Seems like it might be fun -- perhaps it's already been done.

Still keeping hope alive here. If any team has proven they know how to choke away a big postseason series lead, it's the Yankees.

Because it happened one time in a gazillion years?

Don't forget that they were up 1-0 to Angels and Tigers in the '05 and '06 Division Series, respectively. And that's not even to mention how they were up 2-1 to the Marlins in '03. These are some serious choke jobs we're talking about here.

Ah Yankee fans. After game one it was doom and gloom because, gasp, the Yanks were down 1 game after. . . 1 game. Now it is all rose petals and sangria.

Ah Yankee fans. After game one it was doom and gloom because, gasp, the Yanks were down 1 game after. . . 1 game. Now it is all rose petals and sangria.

It's certainly not in the bag, but things look promising for the New Yorks, you must admit.

Up 3-1, this should be about the time when you see Yankee fans muse about how their boys are now a solid 50% to win the series...

Up 3-1, this should be about the time when you see Yankee fans muse about how their boys are now a solid 50% to win the series...

To be fair, SG over at Replacement Level has put up odds after every game. His updated odds are as follows:

Yankees: 92.10% Phillies: 7.90%

Although he adds:

"I just got off the phone with Jimmy Rollins, and we've decided to amend our prediction to Phillies in seven."

Brad Lidge commented after the game about how the 3rd out of an inning is always the hardest to get... It would seem that some empirical study could be made here. Is the 3rd out the toughest?

As a Red Sox fan, what worries me is I totally can see Papelbon turning into Brad Lidge. Naturally the Red Sox are far too smart to let it get to where Lidge is now (they'd bench/cut bait first), but Lidge v.2009 has me worried that Papelbon v2010 could well be an echo of Lidge v2009.

If people start deleting all of their dumb-ass comments, this place is going to lidge.

Mine was dumb - a little too bit fanboyish/sooky over the Yankees dominance this year - I realsied I was being a jerk.

Textbook - I think Paplebon will be excellent next year - isn't he a free agent in 2011? That is reason enough for me to think he will come charging out of the gates from Game One...

It was maddening to see LIdge out there for so many pitches but I dunno who they put in. Damon hit the 20th pitch of the inning into LF for a single, after a magnificent AB. ARod hit the 25th for a double and go ahead run, and Posada hit the 30th for 2 more tallies. You could sort of see his pitches were less effective after the Damon AB; do managers see the radar gun during the game?

Brad Lidge commented after the game about how the 3rd out of an inning is always the hardest to get... It would seem that some empirical study could be made here. Is the 3rd out the toughest?

Without any study whatsoever, the answer is yes. The first out is the easiest, then the second, and the third brings up the rear.

I think Manuel suffered from learned helplessness .

To be fair, SG over at Replacement Level has put up odds after every game. His updated odds are as follows:

Yankees: 92.10% Phillies: 7.90%

It has to be said that Baseball Prospectus methodology gives different results, though the chance of a Red Sox victory is now down to 10% even there.

Angel Berroa is one win away from winning a 2009 championship ring.

We've had some seriously awful World Series in recent years, haven't we?

2004: Red Sox sweep Cards; everyone's happy for Boston fans at first, until it become clear they're going just as a big of d!ckheads as Yankees fans.

2005: White Sox sweep Astros. You'd think a series between a first-time WS team and another team that hadn't been there in half a century would be interesting. You'd be wrong.

2006: Worst. World Series. Ever.

2007: Red Sox sweep...ah...who was it again? Never mind. Sawx Nation officially becomes Evil Empire II.

2008: Phillies beat Rays in five rain-soaked, snooze-inducing games. I sincerely hope that you dozen or so Rays fans enjoyed your pennant; it's the last one you'll see. Ever.

2009: Another abomination of blown calls, miscues, awful relief pitching, and the smugness of Yankee fans who had to wait ALMOST A FUGGIN DECADE for a title! And it's over in five games. Thank God.

Leave it to ESPN to completely miss the story, yet again:

"Johnny Damon stole two bases on one pitch, and en route, altered the World Series."

I think the most likely outcome right now is Yankees in 6, John; Lee > Burnett.

Oh, I agree that the Phillies look better on paper there, Blackadder.

Oh, I agree that the Phillies look better on paper there, Blackadder.

For what it's worth, the odds says the Phillies have 58% chance of winning today.

who will win world series if Yankess won today??
Jeter
Damon
AJ

if jeter has a good game today i could give it to him
but i think mo also should be considered

If people start deleting all of their dumb-ass comments,

Really, it would be a different world.

I think happysky is talking about the MVP. Assuming that nobody does anything especially heroic today, I think it's between Jeter and Rivera.

I think Manuel suffered from learned helplessness .

Well, he learned it at the same school as every ML manager. You dance with who brung ya. Actually respnding to what's happening on the field not encouraged.

i mean World series MVP sorry typo

I am big jeter fan but i would give it to MO ............. if he pitches 2 inning today(finger crossed)I mean he is just so amazing when u see other closers u feel blessed that MO is pitching for yankees

I'm with RMC. It's like the Super Bowl. They get to the grande finale and somebody leaves their jockstrap on the bus. You're better off watching the LCS and then moving onto your fall and winter sports.

2009: Another abomination of blown calls, miscues, awful relief pitching, and the smugness of Yankee fans who had to wait ALMOST A FUGGIN DECADE for a title! And it's over in five games. Thank God.

I think it's awful early to be declaring that it'll end in five.

Most of the really egregious blown calls were in the earlier playoff rounds.
(That's right - I'm arguing that the umpiring during the World Series is less terrible than it was before.)

I think Game One was well-played overall, and certainly well-pitched on both sides until the late innings.

It wasn't a save situation. Brad Lidge has still been perfect for the postseason in those.

(ducks)

who will win world series if Yankess won today??
Jeter
Damon
AJ

if jeter has a good game today i could give it to him
but i think mo also should be considered

Three of Jeter's hits have been in the game they lost. Damon has hit better and had the big hit and steals in the ninth last night.

If they win tonight it should be Burnett.

Well it wasn't Jeter fault that team lost ............I think one should win who has been consistent so i think it is between jeter and MO
if AJ has good game i think he has chance

also damon had a good world series but not that good on overall Playoff where as mo and Jeter has had over all great playoff

everyone's happy for Boston fans at first, until it become clear they're going just as a big of d!ckheads as Yankees fans.

Yawn.

if AJ has good game i think he has chance

If they win tonight and AJ doesn't pitch poorly, he's a mortal lock to win MVP. Mortal. Lock.

also damon had a good world series but not that good on overall Playoff where as mo and Jeter has had over all great playoff

This isn't the Conn Smythe Trophy. How Jeter and Mo did will play no role in whether or not they get the MVP.

I'm still not thrilled with pitching Burnett tonight. It's not indefensible, since he's pitched well on 3 days rest in the past, but if you hold him back and leave it to Gaudin, the bullpen, and fortune tonight, you've got these advantages in the likely event that they lose:

---Burnett on full rest for game 6.

---Burnett pitching at home, where this year his ERA is over a full run lower than it is on the road.

---One less automatic out in the lineup, with Burnett's not being forced to hit. In game 6 only Molina is a stiff, and if Posada catches tonight to make up for the offense, then Burnett's effectiveness plummets.

---A much more favorable mound opponent (Pedro is a 7 inning pitcher at best; Lee can pitch complete games).

---Pettitte at full strength and available for long relief in any game 7, rather than having to pitch on short rest in game 6---Pettitte hasn't pitched on short rest since 2006, and even on 4 days rest his ERA is over a run higher than it is when he has an extra day off.

I know the cliches are "win today" and "go with your best," but I honestly don't see the strategic advantage of forcing the issue, when the advantages of holding Burnett back are (IMO anyway) so clearcut, and especially when pushing Burnett up in the rotation is just so unnecessary.

Of course if Burnett goes and repeats his game 2 performance, then forget everything. But what are the odds that he'll do that on the road, or that even if he does, that Lee won't top him?

And what if he doesn't? That's when the shit could really hit the fan, because a well-rested Pedro Martinez has a definite edge over a short-rested Andy Pettitte in game 6. Which would leave it completely up to Sabathia and the bullpen for game 7, when it shouldn't have to come to that.

By my reckoning, the Phillies are now the 42nd team to drop 3 of the first 4 in a best-of-7 World Series. Here's what happened to the other teams once down 3 games to 1 in the World Series.

2005: White Sox sweep Astros. You'd think a series between a first-time WS team and another team that hadn't been there in half a century would be interesting. You'd be wrong.

It was only uninteresting to the most superficial of analysis; ie, it was a sweep. It was the most interesting sweep in history, and no, I'm not damning with faint praise.

Game 1: White Sox took the lead with 1 in the first, Astros tied it up in the second. White Sox took the lead again in the bottom of the second, Astros tied it up again in the third. White Sox scored one in the 4th. With the score 4-3 in the 8th, the Astros get the first 2 on with a double and a single. Cotts and jenks then strike out the side. Sox score an insurance run in the bottom of the 8th and win 5-3. This was the least interesting game of the series.

Game 2: Astros take a 1-0 lead in the second, Sox score 2 in the bottom of the inning. Astros tie it up next inning, and score 2 more in the 5th to take a 4-2 lead. Paul Konerko hits a granny in the 7th, Sox lead 6-4. With 2 out and 2 on in the 9th, pinch hitter Jose Vizcaino! singles to drive in 2 to tie the game. In the bottom of the 9th, Scott Podsednik!! homers to win the game. Pods had 0 HR in 568 PA during the regular season. This was not the most interesting game of the series

Game 3: After scoring in three different innings, the Astros and Roy Oswalt are cruising with a 4-0 lead after 4. In the 5th, Oswalt gives up 4 singles, a double, a HR, a walk, and a HBP to cough up the lead. Astros tie it up in the bottom of the 8th. The two teams then trade goose eggs for the next 5 innings, until 2 out in the 14th when Geoff Blum !!! homers. The Sox add an insurance run and win 7-5.

Game 4: After Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt all fail in their starts, Brandon Backe!!!! pitches 7 scoreless innings until being removed for a one armed, future HOF pinch hitter, Jeff Bagwell. Problem is, Freddy Garcia was also throwing a shutout. The Sox squeeze one across in the 8th against Brad Lidge. With one out and a runner on second in the bottom of the 9th, Juan Uribe makes 2 spectacular plays, a dive into the stands to catch a foul popup, and a running-off balance-laser beam throw to first on a weak grounder to clinch the series.

I can certainly understand being bitter about the series if you were an Astro fan, but to call that series uninteresting simply because it was a sweep is just wrong. There were 41 innings in the series. The score was tied (17) or one team had a 1 run lead (15) after the conclusion of 32 of them. There were only 2 innings in which a team had a 3 run or greater lead. The largest lead by either team at any time was 4, and it became a 1 run deficit the next inning. No game was decided by more than 2 runs. Heroes included Jose Vizcaino, Scott Podsednik, Geoff Blum, and Brandon Backe. Goats included Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalk, and Brad Lidge. After pitching 7 innings in game 2, Mark Buerhle got his first career save in game 3. If that wasn't an exciting series to you, you don't enjoy baseball.

Andy, I agree. If the series were 2-2 or if they were down I could maybe see it. But 3-1 ought to buy you some freedom. Burnett in game 6 on full rest. Pettitte on full rest in game 7 with a 3 day rested Sabathia ready to drop the hammer on 2-3 innings of relief to get to Mo, if need be.


Maybe pitchers should be like they were in yesteryear, but they're not.

Dag, you still haven't fixed the error in your article -- the 1919 Reds won 3 of the first 4 games.

Miserlou, I was going to answer RMc's diss of the 2005 Series, but since I got lazy I'm glad that you did---that was a terrific series to anyone but an Astros (or Cubs) fan, regardless of the sweep factor. And the White Sox' 88 year wait was two years longer than Boston's.

-----------------------

Andy, I agree. If the series were 2-2 or if they were down I could maybe see it. But 3-1 ought to buy you some freedom. Burnett in game 6 on full rest. Pettitte on full rest in game 7 with a 3 day rested Sabathia ready to drop the hammer on 2-3 innings of relief to get to Mo, if need be.

I was thinking more of Sabathia in game 7 with Pettitte available as a backup, but either way would be far preferable to having it come down to Sabathia and the bullpen. To me that's way too much of a gamble, and a totally unnecessary one at that.

If they win tonight and AJ doesn't pitch poorly, he's a mortal lock to win MVP. Mortal. Lock.

Jeter gets two or three hits tonight, and RBI, scores a run, etc., and they win, I'll bet he does. No, it doesn't make any sense, but I just have a feeling.

everyone's happy for Boston fans at first, until it become clear they're going just as a big of d!ckheads as Yankees fans.

I dislike your team and you like it, therefore you are a ########.

Larry,

Thanks for the catch. I just mentioned it in the comments section.

Miserlou, I was going to answer RMc's diss of the 2005 Series, but since I got lazy I'm glad that you did---that was a terrific series to anyone but an Astros (or Cubs) fan, regardless of the sweep factor.

I am a cubs fand and I thought the 2005 Series was fantastic. So is miserlous, IIRC.

Still, getting back to RMc's larger point - wouldn't it be nice to have a World Series that actually went beyond five games at some point? It has been a while.

Hell, we've only had three go the distance since 1991.

Maybe pitchers should be like they were in yesteryear, but they're not.

These guys are about to get 100 days rest. There's no reason to dick around with Gaudin.

Still, getting back to RMc's larger point - wouldn't it be nice to have a World Series that actually went beyond five games at some point?

Don't worry, this one will. This is going to game seven.

These guys are about to get 100 days rest. There's no reason to dick around with Gaudin.

100% agree. Don't let Phillie off the mat. Starting your 11th best pitcher in a World Series game is basically indefensible.

I'd rather then start Hughes than Gaudin.

I'm with RMC. It's like the Super Bowl. They get to the grande finale and somebody leaves their jockstrap on the bus. You're better off watching the LCS and then moving onto your fall and winter sports.

I know this isn't the point, but have you seen a Super Bowl in the last 15 years?

Maybe pitchers should be like they were in yesteryear, but they're not.

These guys are about to get 100 days rest. There's no reason to dick around with Gaudin.

That's the sort of "moral" or "character" point I'd expect to see out of a Lupica or a Conlin, but unfortunately the statistics don't back it up. Look up and see for yourself how many times Pettitte's pitched lately on three days rest, which is what he'll be doing on Wednesday if Girardi's gamble with Burnett doesn't pay off tonight.

These guys are about to get 100 days rest. There's no reason to dick around with Gaudin.

100% agree. Don't let Phillie off the mat. Starting your 11th best pitcher in a World Series game is basically indefensible.

I'd rather then start Hughes than Gaudin.

Either of them would be preferable to Burnett, not because of game 5, but because of what it sets in motion for game 6 and game 7. Pitching Burnett tonight is putting way too many eggs in one basket. It's pressing a panic button that doesn't need to be pressed.

It's pressing a panic button that doesn't need to be pressed.

Pitching Gaudin would be worse, that would be playing a house money game in the world series.

If Lee pitches like he did in game 1*, then Burnett could pitch a great game and still lose. Short rest is a bad idea for guys who don't do it a lot. CC has done it some and had success, so it wouldn't be terrible with him, but I wouldn't risk it with Burnett and I think Andy has nicely summarized what you lose if you lose this gamble.

Cobble something together tonight - hell, maybe Gaudin pitches the game of his life, what was Larson's career efficacy like? - and then you have: Burnett on full rest, at home, with a DH followed by game 7 with fully rested Pettite and 3 day rested Sabathia ready to go. That has to be better odds, to win one of those three, than Burnett on short, Pettite on short, Sabathia on short.

At the end of the discussion, the Yanks are up 3-1 and could probably start ARod on the hill for one start and still win the series.



* Of course, I'd be shocked if he was as effective as he was in game 1.

Either of them would be preferable to Burnett, not because of game 5, but because of what it sets in motion for game 6 and game 7. Pitching Burnett tonight is putting way too many eggs in one basket. It's pressing a panic button that doesn't need to be pressed.

I think starting anyone other than Burnett is basically punting Game 5, especially with Lee going. Now, if you don't think they can beat Lee in any case that's one thing, but even with Andy's (who apparentlty went as Steve Lomardi this Halloween) scenario for what could happen in Games 6 and 7, you can't punt a WS game, you just can't.

Why is Gaudin on the roster then? It looks to me like the Yanks could have gone with 7 pitchers.

I agree with Andy. Pitchers today aren't used to 3 days rest. I think it's a big risk to force yourself into having 3 pitchers all pitch on 3 days rest, and if AJ blows up tonight, you are pretty much stuck with it, no way they pitch Gaudin over Pettite in game 6.

I like the idea of Gaudin to start tonight, on a very short leash - use the pen for 6 innings if you have to - and then if a loss go with AJ and CC, with Andy available out of the pen.

Why is Gaudin on the roster then? It looks to me like the Yanks could have gone with 7 pitchers.

Sure, in retrospect they don't need a long man. In retrospect, my car doesn't need a spare tire, but it's a damned good idea to have one.

At the end of the discussion, the Yanks are up 3-1 and could probably start ARod on the hill for one start and still win the series.

A-Rod can't pitch. Every time he throws to first is an adventure. Usually close enough that Tex can make the catch, but if he's throwing to a strike zone the standards are a bit more difficult. Let Nick "reverse Babe" Swisher do the pitching.

Either of them would be preferable to Burnett, not because of game 5, but because of what it sets in motion for game 6 and game 7. Pitching Burnett tonight is putting way too many eggs in one basket. It's pressing a panic button that doesn't need to be pressed.

I just don't see it that way.

Pettitte has only been slightly worse in his career on 3 days rest (4.15 ERA vs. 3.91). Burnett and CC have both been better on 3 days rest than their career averages.

Pitchers throughout history have successfully thrown on 3, 2, 1 and zero days rest in the postseason. Including in the last 10 years. There is no evidence that "modern" pitchers can't do it.

In exchange for a potential small loss of effectiveness for your 3 SPs, you get to replace a Chad Gaudin start with a CC Sabathia start. That seems an absolute no brainer to me.

I think starting anyone other than Burnett is basically punting Game 5, especially with Lee going. Now, if you don't think they can beat Lee in any case that's one thing, but even with Andy's (who apparentlty went as Steve Lomardi this Halloween) scenario for what could happen in Games 6 and 7, you can't punt a WS game, you just can't.

Jesus, that's what the all time champion moron Mike Hargrove said before this game, when he sent Bartolo Colon out on three day's rest. And it's what the runner-up moron Ken Macha said before this game, which put him in the same position of having to start a short rested pitcher in the deciding game 5 as well.

Again, if Burnett wins tonight, Girardi's a genius. But if he doesn't, Girardi's put the Yankees at a huge disadvantage for both game 6 and game 7. And it's all completely unnecessary.

I don't think it's possible that Girardi's a genius.

I just watched the Damon-takes-third play again. He was awful close to Ruiz, who had the ball. It could be the angle, but it looked to me like if Ruiz had reacted to the play exactly correctly, he could have tagged Johnny.

Pitching Gaudin would be worse, that would be playing a house money game in the world series.

And yesterday people were complaining about how doomed the Phillies were starting Blanton against Sabathia. That game was tied through 8 innings. Somebody upthread noted that the Phillies have a 58% chance of winning a Lee-Burnett matchup. At worst, starting Gaudin, what are you talking about - 65%?

I'm with Andy on this one. Lee-Burnett, with Burnett on short rest, in Philly, favors the Phillies. But, then, full-rested Pedro v. short-rest Pettitte, I think also favors the Phillies (not by much, like 51-49 or 52-48, but a little). And you're then locked into starting Sabathia in Game 7 on short rest (for a 2nd time in a row) with no backup plan (unless Burnett or Pettitte gets knocked out early).

I'd take advantage of the luxury of being up 3-1 and start Gaudin in Game 5, Burnett in Game 6, leaving me with both Sabathia and Pettitte available for Game 7, if necessary.

Totally disagree, Andy. If you pitch Gaudin, or anyone else than your top three, you're essentially hoping for luck rather than relying on the odds one of your top three will keep you in the game. Maybe you'll get lucky, but that doesn't strike me as the most reasonable way to manage. And I don't like the idea of essentially conceding the dramatic starting edge to Philly. With Burnett, even on three days, NY concedes only a slight edge to them.

Let's hope this is all moot and that Tex, Cano, and Swisher show up and help out Jeter, Damon, and A-Rod.

Either of them [Gaudin or Hughes] would be preferable to Burnett, not because of game 5, but because of what it sets in motion for game 6 and game 7. Pitching Burnett tonight is putting way too many eggs in one basket. It's pressing a panic button that doesn't need to be pressed.

I just don't see it that way.

Pettitte has only been slightly worse in his career on 3 days rest (4.15 ERA vs. 3.91). Burnett and CC have both been better on 3 days rest than their career averages.

I can see the case for Burnett on short rest---all other things being equal. But in this case all other things aren't equal, not by a long shot.

Question: When was the last time Pettitte pitched on short rest? And how old is he today?

Second question: What are the sample sizes?

Third question: What if Lee beats Burnett? Then what do you have for an encore?

In exchange for a potential small loss of effectiveness for your 3 SPs, you get to replace a Chad Gaudin start with a CC Sabathia start. That seems an absolute no brainer to me.

No, what you're getting is an absolutely loaded and rested mound corps for game 7 and a vastly improved game 6 scenario, in return for a game 5 where you're going to be an underdog anyway. Look at Burnett's home/road splits and tell me that this isn't so.

I'm not too worried about backup plan if it goes 7. If the Phillies hammer AJ and Andy, and get to the mop up part of the Yankee pen, Rivera will be super rested for game 7 and there will be no consideration of having to save anything for the next game. He might give you 3 or 4 innings in that scenario.

I agree with Andy.

Chad Gaudin's road ERA: 4.35

A.J. Burnett's road ERA: 4.59.

The premise for starting Burnett is that he's going to perform as he's done so far in the postseason. But all those stellar postseason games have been in Yankee Stadium. In his one road game, he put the Yanks 4 runs in the hole before he retired a batter.

I'm not saying that Gaudin is more likely to pitch a better game tonight than Burnett would be. But given Burnett's road record, and the domino effect that it will have on game 6 and game 7, IMO Girardi's taking a stupid and unnecessary risk by trying to wrap it up tonight, in a setup where even Sandy Koufax would be no better than even money, let alone A.J. Burnett. This move reeks of panic and old school cliches, and little else.

Jesus, that's what the all time champion moron Mike Hargrove said before this game, when he sent Bartolo Colon out on three day's rest. And it's what the runner-up moron Ken Macha said before this game, which put him in the same position of having to start a short rested pitcher in the deciding game 5 as well.

Except that doesn't prove anything. Hargrove is a champion moron, but it wasn't because he started Colon on three days rest, it was because he didn't have a long man on the roster and inexplicably used his Game 4 starter (Wright) in Game 3.

And anyone can play clever-BBRef-link game, Jack McKeon went for the kill in this game, and that worked.

I'm with Andy and co. The only thing giving me hope is that the Yankees starters, two of whom don't go on short rest and the other one who has been worked very hard already, are not at their best in the final three games.

The Yankees don't have a #4 starter. None of Aceves, Chamberlain, or Hughes is stretched out or rested to pitch, and Gaudin sucks. If the Yankees had a reasonable #4 starter - a Joe Blanton type - then I could see criticizing the 3-man rotation, but given the makeup of the roster, it makes all kinds of sense to me.

I'm with Andy and co. The only thing giving me hope is that the Yankees starters, two of whom don't go on short rest and the other one who has been worked very hard already, are not at their best in the final three games.

I really wouldn't say CC has been worked very hard. They took it real easy on him in Sept., and he had plenty of rest between playoff rounds.

Dates and pitch counts: 9/13 108, 9/19 105, 9/26 96, 10/2 82, 10/7 113, 10/16 113, 10/20 101, 10/28 113, 11/1 107

That's not close to being worked hard. This is not at all analogous to the Milwaukee situation.

Every Yankee fan in my office is convinced that AROD will go Ofer the rest of the way and the Yankees will lose in 7.

The belief not only in AROD unclutchitude but in his negative intangibles dragging the team down has apparently not been affected by his performance this year so far.

Nice, Repoz. Nice.

On a somewhat related note, if Philly reaches Game 7, who do they pitch? Hamels will set up on full rest, but seems to be doing all he can to establish himself as a headcase who shouldn't be trust, and even Manuel wouldn't say he's starting. Lee is persumably out, if they weren't starting him on 3 days rest they aren't doing it on 2. Blanton? Happ?

On a somewhat related note, if Philly reaches Game 7, who do they pitch? Hamels will set up on full rest, but seems to be doing all he can to establish himself as a headcase who shouldn't be trust, and even Manuel wouldn't say he's starting. Lee is persumably out, if they weren't starting him on 3 days rest they aren't doing it on 2. Blanton? Happ?


A Philly WS win will have to look something like this, at this point:


Game 5: Burnett loses to Lee
Day off
Game 6: 97 year old Pettite, on 3 days rest, gives up 7 runs in 2 and 2/3. Gaudin pitches 6 scoreless innings in relief*.
Rain
Game 7: 3 day rested Lee defeats 3 day rested Sabathia 5-3.


* :)

I really wouldn't say CC has been worked very hard. They took it real easy on him in Sept., and he had plenty of rest between playoff rounds.

He's already started on three days rest twice in the last two weeks and will be doing it again in a potential Game 7. It may not rise to his final month with Milwaukee, and he's quite clearly a horse, but it's still well above his regular workload. But at this point, if the Phils can get to a Game 7, I'll take my chances.

If the Yankees had a reasonable #4 starter - a Joe Blanton type - then I could see criticizing the 3-man rotation, but given the makeup of the roster, it makes all kinds of sense to me.

This only makes sense to me if Girardi is confident that both Pettitte and Burnett will be effective on short rest. I'm not sure how he could be, given that neither of them does it.

I haven't seen the numbers in a while, but it seemed the recent history of guys going on short rest in the postseason has not been good.

Anyway, I will admit though that it was a great game and the Yankees have, indeed, been the better team at every point of the series where Cliff Lee has not been on the mound or Chase Utley has not been facing CC Sabathia (if the Yankees win in 7 but Chase has another HR or 2 against Sabathia, can Chase get the MVP? Or at least a T-shirt that says "I kept CC Sabathia from being MVP of the 2009 Fall Classic"?). I highly suggest that the Yankees only play "half-speed" (if not outright throw) the game tonight though, for the good of Baseball (remember the glory days of 2001-2002-2003 where we had 3 straight series of 6 or more games? I miss those days), and face it: there are many high-paying customers for games 6 and 7 who would like to see the New Stadium opened with a WSV. Oh, and the Philly Phans may very well tear you limb from limb if you win in their house. I think we all remember how this happened to the Orioles in 1983, but Ripken, being the Gamer he was, was able to regenerate in time for Spring Training. Seriously, the man was like Wolverine.

And I did mean the rant as something of a self parody (although having an old-timers game between the '96 Yankees and Orioles would be pretty interesting).

I'm with Andy and co. The only thing giving me hope is that the Yankees starters, two of whom don't go on short rest and the other one who has been worked very hard already, are not at their best in the final three games.

I really wouldn't say CC has been worked very hard. They took it real easy on him in Sept., and he had plenty of rest between playoff rounds.

Dates and pitch counts: 9/13 108, 9/19 105, 9/26 96, 10/2 82, 10/7 113, 10/16 113, 10/20 101, 10/28 113, 11/1 107

That's not close to being worked hard. This is not at all analogous to the Milwaukee situation.

And just to be clear, I'm not saying that it is, either. My point isn't that either Burnett or Sabathia is going to implode on short rest, but that you're reducing the percentages of the greater good (winning a best of 7 series) for the short range gamble (that Burnett can finish off the Series, pitching on the road against Cliff Lee). It's strictly about percentages, and especially what it does to the matchup in game 6---where a fully rested Burnett pitching at home would be IMO a huge improvement over a short rested Pettitte, who hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, and is now 37 years old and easily prone to meltdowns.

Oh, and if Game 6 comes, I totally can see Pedro painting his Sock "Schilling-Blood Red" just to get in people's head.

Rain
Game 7: 3 day rested Lee defeats 3 day rested Sabathia 5-3.

So this scenario assumes that Sabathia starts again tonight?

The Yankees don't have a #4 starter. None of Aceves, Chamberlain, or Hughes is stretched out or rested to pitch, and Gaudin sucks. If the Yankees had a reasonable #4 starter - a Joe Blanton type - then I could see criticizing the 3-man rotation, but given the makeup of the roster, it makes all kinds of sense to me.

I agree. The Yankees have made a deal with the devil and it's worked great to date. We'll see if Ole Scratch pays off in the next two games or makes the Yankees sweat through a 7th game.

On a somewhat related note, if Philly reaches Game 7, who do they pitch?
I would pitch Blanton on short rest -- he's kind of bulldog-y and ought to be able to give them 5 innings. The Phils then mix and match with Durbin, Happ, Myers, Park, Eyre, Madson. I would use Lidge only in select, low-leverage situations to get some RHs out. Lee would be my closer/fireman -- it's his throwing day anyway. Save Hamels for extended extra innings if it goes that far -- heck, at that point it's roll the dice anyway and Hamels will likely match up OK with whomever the Yankees have left. Or if Blanton bombs, then you have to go with Hamels and hope.

What about Pedro, Edmundo?

Or is he set for game six?

So this scenario assumes that Sabathia starts again tonight?

Absolutely. He'll also throw on the off-days.

So this scenario assumes that Sabathia starts again tonight?

Absolutely. He'll also throw on the off-days.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka thinks that is too much pitching!