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Monday, May 14, 2018

A walk-off win at Angel Stadium, another Sunday with Shohei Ohtani

Scioscia has refrained from using Ohtani the days directly before and after his starts and the player said his has physically responded well to the schedule.
...
His condition has made the Angels wonder if it’s possible for them to get more out of him, with Scioscia already saying he will likely pitch once every six days at some point this season.

“In the big picture of where I think we will need to be with our rotation, it’s going to be very helpful if he can come back and pitch on that sixth day,” Scioscia said.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 14, 2018 at 03:15 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, shohei ohtani

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   1. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: May 14, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5671841)
Ohtani looked really good yesterday. Good breaking balls, sharp fastball. Started losing it at around 95-100 pitches - just the command - not the stuff. I have been really impressed with his secondary pitches - just filthy. The announcers said OppBA vs. his splitter/slider/curve is around .050.....

Seems about right.
   2. Nasty Nate Posted: May 14, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5671862)
He set his season-high in pitches last night (103). Is that a harbinger that he will soon both pitch and hit in the same game?
   3. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5671913)
I think in an NL park it would totally happen. ;-)

One thing they said is trying to get him pitching on 5 days rest (every 6 days - not every 7 days) first. I am all for that, as well as having him supplant Calhoun in RF a few days a week. ;-)
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5671919)
Is that a harbinger that he will soon both pitch and hit in the same game?

Seems like the Angels should be fairly confident Ohtani will pitch well enough to remain in the game for 3 PAs, maybe more if they're battling him in the middle of the order, leaving 1 PA to be covered by the player who otherwise would have been the DH that day, and maybe 1 PA for a pinch hitter, in a normal game. Some risk if Ohtani gets knocked out early, or leaves due to injury, as well as being short-handed in an extra-innings game, but I don't see that outweighing the benefit of Ohtani's bat. Besides, they'll sell more tickets if he hits when he pitches. Win-Win.
   5. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:11 PM (#5671927)
Some risk if Ohtani gets knocked out early, or leaves due to injury, as well as being short-handed in an extra-innings game, but I don't see that outweighing the benefit of Ohtani's bat.


I would be very concerned about that. That's a huge change, particularly if the Angels are rocking the 12 man staff. In the game against Boston he came out after two innings, the Sox won in a walk so no big deal, but if that had been close they would likely have been out of position players on the bench pretty quickly.

Besides, they'll sell more tickets if he hits when he pitches. Win-Win.


Will that be a meaningful number? I genuinely don't know. I assume they've been drawing well whenever he starts.
   6. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5671946)
So, about him. He's been great so far. But this seems to be the best possible outcome. 181 OPS+ as a hitter, 119 ERA+ as a pitcher. Good for 1.5 WAR. 6.0 WAR extrapolated one a full season. Which seems to be his ceiling. That's a wonderful player obviously, but I don't see how he can realistically improve on that, unless he can somehow start playing more.
   7. Rally Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5671949)
Might be a while. Angels' next NL road game is 7/13-7/15 against the Dodgers. That includes the last Sunday before the All-Star break so he'll pitch if he stays on the Sunday schedule. I'm sure that will disappoint many who want to see him pitch in the All-Star game.

They have weekday series against the Padres and D-Backs in August, that's it for NL parks this year unless they play deep into October.

   8. PreservedFish Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5671963)
So, about him. He's been great so far. But this seems to be the best possible outcome. 181 OPS+ as a hitter, 119 ERA+ as a pitcher. Good for 1.5 WAR. 6.0 WAR extrapolated one a full season. Which seems to be his ceiling.


It only takes 6 weeks to decide what his ceiling is?

I still think he's a better pitcher than hitter. No reason he can't be a 6 WAR pitcher. If he adds 1+ WAR as a hitter, that's pretty cool.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5671975)
No reason he can't be a 6 WAR pitcher.
Only making 25 starts is a reason.
   10. Greg Pope Posted: May 14, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5671982)
That's a huge change, particularly if the Angels are rocking the 12 man staff. In the game against Boston he came out after two innings, the Sox won in a walk so no big deal, but if that had been close they would likely have been out of position players on the bench pretty quickly.

If he comes out after 2 innings, that will almost always be a blowout, no? These days a pitcher isn't removed in the second because they give up 4 runs. They're expected to go 5. I guess you can imaging a game where the Angels score 8 in the first 2 innings, then in the bottom of the second Ohtani gives up 6 and you yank him. But I wouldn't make my plans around that.
   11. Baldrick Posted: May 14, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5671987)
So, about him. He's been great so far. But this seems to be the best possible outcome. 181 OPS+ as a hitter, 119 ERA+ as a pitcher. Good for 1.5 WAR. 6.0 WAR extrapolated one a full season. Which seems to be his ceiling. That's a wonderful player obviously, but I don't see how he can realistically improve on that, unless he can somehow start playing more.

Given some of his pitching performances, I don't think it's remotely out of the question to see him as a 130/140 ERA+ pitcher. Would I predict that? No. But his ceiling is much higher than 119, for sure.
   12. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 14, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5671990)
Given some of his pitching performances, I don't think it's remotely out of the question to see him as a 130/140 ERA+ pitcher. Would I predict that? No. But his ceiling is much higher than 119, for sure.


Yeah, but you have to balance the with a 181 OPS+ is not sustainable. He has room for improvement as a pitcher, none as a hitter and is very likely to regress.

   13. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 14, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5671997)
No reason he can't be a 6 WAR pitcher.

Only making 25 starts is a reason.


Right. Since 1980, only 4 starters got 6 WAR in 25 of fewer starts: Maddux, Clemens, and Cone in 1994, Schilling in 2003. Schilling had the worst ERA+ of all of them at 159.
   14. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 14, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5672045)
Yeah, but you have to balance the with a 181 OPS+ is not sustainable. He has room for improvement as a pitcher, none as a hitter and is very likely to regress.

Someone probably said that about Babe Ruth in 1918, too. Seems a little early - six weeks into his rookie season - to say anyone has figured out how to optimize Ohtani long-term.
   15. Karl from NY Posted: May 14, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5672050)
Hasn't Ohtani said he prefers not to pitch and hit in the same game? That the hitting interrupts the rhythm of pitching. I thought that came out in spring training when he had the opportunity but declined.
   16. eric Posted: May 14, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5672057)
The guy is 23. Let's not give him a ceiling, yet.

I hope he plays more, but I don't know the rigors of playing two-ways so often. If he can still be a 180 OPS+ hitter and a 120 ERA+ pitcher (or whatever his current "true" talent level is) and the Angels just get more of it, then sure. But if by August he'll be running on fumes, then maybe they should just accept what they have.

   17. Rally Posted: May 14, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5672096)
Right. Since 1980, only 4 starters got 6 WAR in 25 of fewer starts: Maddux, Clemens, and Cone in 1994, Schilling in 2003. Schilling had the worst ERA+ of all of them at 159.


Strike shortened year or not, Maddux pitched 202 innings. That would have put him in the MLB top 10 for 2017. Angels are a quarter through their season and Ohtani is on pace for about 130 innings.

Looking at pitchers making at least 20 starts, no more than 25 total games, and no more than 140 innings pitched, Rich Hill (2016) has the greatest WAR season ever (4.3). I didn't restrict by year, but its mostly a list of modern players. In the old days if you made 20 starts you should have had something near 180 innings unless you were a wimp. Two other pitchers barely top 4.0 WAR. So yeah, 6 WAR seems very unlikely if this is his workload.

Pedro just missed my list (18 starts, 116 innings) in a 5.1 WAR 2001 season. Removing (min starts >= 20) adds a few more pitchers to the list, including Jered Weaver's excellent rookie year, but nothing over Pedro's 5.1 WAR.

Despite his speed his batter value is limited if he's a part time DH instead of playing the outfield. His pitcher value is limited in this workload vs. trying for 200 innings. That's fine with me. He's certainly helping the team, and is an incredible joy to watch.

Hasn't Ohtani said he prefers not to pitch and hit in the same game? That the hitting interrupts the rhythm of pitching. I thought that came out in spring training when he had the opportunity but declined.


Don't know, but he had bigger questions to deal with in spring, like "Is he ever going to get a hit again" and "can he get through the second inning this time?". Doubt it will be an issue when his turn comes up in an NL park though, it's something NL pitchers have to deal with every start.



   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 14, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5672105)
Despite his speed his batter value is limited if he's a part time DH instead of playing the outfield. His pitcher value is limited in this workload vs. trying for 200 innings. That's fine with me. He's certainly helping the team, and is an incredible joy to watch.


Yes, he is a wonderful player, and any team would be happy to have him. Because of his limited workload as a part time DH, his his Trout-esque hitting line projects to 3.2 WAR. Because few people can sustain a Trout-esque hitting line, I call that his ceiling, 6 weeks into his rookie career or no, unless he greatly ups his playing time, which is what I said in my original post.
   19. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 14, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5672212)
ecause of his limited workload as a part time DH, his his Trout-esque hitting line projects to 3.2 WAR. Because few people can sustain a Trout-esque hitting line, I call that his ceiling....
If he maintains his 181 OPS+ for a season, he'll be only the 13th player to do that in this century. (Only four of the previous dozen were able to do it twice.) Ohtani didn't slug .600 in Japan; he's at .652 right now. He doesn't turn 24 until early July, so maybe a power bump is reasonable, but I can't imagine Ohtani can consistently hit better than he's doing right now only because I can't imagine anyone doing this consistently.

I can easily see him moving up the pitching leaderboard.
   20. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 14, 2018 at 05:55 PM (#5672220)
If he maintains his 181 OPS+ for a season, he'll be only the 13th player to do that in this century. (Only four of the previous dozen were able to do it twice.) Ohtani didn't slug .600 in Japan; he's at .652 right now. He doesn't turn 24 until early July, so maybe a power bump is reasonable, but I can't imagine Ohtani can consistently hit better than he's doing right now only because I can't imagine anyone doing this consistently.


Right. thus my original comment, which is getting a lot of pushback. 6 WAR appears to be his ceiling. To improve on that he has to:

a) remain an ultra elite hitter while pushing his pitching into elite status. or

b) regress to merely an elite hitter while pushing his pitching into ultra elite status. or

c) increase his playing time while not losing any overall quality.

None seem like reasonable assumptions.
   21. Cowboy Popup Posted: May 14, 2018 at 07:00 PM (#5672258)
Just spitballing but should Ohtani get extra WAR credit because he is contributing as a hitter and a pitcher? Theoretically the Angels are saving a roster spot by having a guy who can do both and I think that value is not inconsequential. It may be difficult to assign a numerical value to that quality though.
   22. eric Posted: May 14, 2018 at 07:25 PM (#5672272)
20: Reading "ceiling" as "the best we should reasonably hope for" softens it just a tad, and makes it a comment I agree with, for what it's worth.

Six WAR is an amazing player. If only they could find a field spot for him rather than DH. He has the skills for the OF. Even if it's only on his "throw" day.

That does make me wonder--if he could be a league average or (likely) better defensive OF, are they really gaining anything by having him play half-and-half with one half as DH? I wonder if he were just a full-time OFer, or even a full-time pitcher, if he might have a higher...er...ceiling?
   23. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 14, 2018 at 08:02 PM (#5672284)
Six WAR is an amazing player. If only they could find a field spot for him rather than DH. He has the skills for the OF. Even if it's only on his "throw" day.
My assumption as to why Ohtani chose Anaheim is because he'd prefer to DH than play the field. He hadn't played the field in Japan since 2014, and while he obviously has the skills to play the outfield, I'm guessing he'd prefer to focus on his pitching and hitting. I mean, he's shown really good foot speed, but he only had 17 stolen base attempts in over 400 Nippon League games. Besides, it's asking a lot for a guy to be not only an elite hitter AND pitcher, but a good outfielder as well.
   24. PreservedFish Posted: May 14, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5672296)
Since 1980, only 4 starters got 6 WAR in 25 of fewer starts

I was kind of assuming that Ohtani wouldn't enjoy the special 7-day rotation for his entire career.
   25. puck Posted: May 14, 2018 at 09:52 PM (#5672355)
Besides, it's asking a lot for a guy to be not only an elite hitter AND pitcher, but a good outfielder as well.


I suppose it increases the possibility of injury and general wear and tear as well.


How are the Angels working their rotation? Are they basically trying to let Richards and Skaggs go every 5th game each, Ohtani on the 7 day schedule, and everyone else is sort of a spot starter?
   26. BDC Posted: May 14, 2018 at 10:11 PM (#5672375)
increases the possibility of injury and general wear and tear

Exactly. Outfielders have to throw the ball hard at unpredictable moments. This didn't bother Babe Ruth 100 years ago, but I suspect his training regimen wasn't quite as finely calibrated :)
   27. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 14, 2018 at 10:34 PM (#5672385)
How are the Angels working their rotation? Are they basically trying to let Richards and Skaggs go every 5th game each, Ohtani on the 7 day schedule, and everyone else is sort of a spot starter?
Scioscia has already stated wants to get Ohtani pitching every sixth day instead of seventh. Early on, the team was pretty hesitant because they were dealing with all the question marks in the world, but now they know they've got something truly special and are now trying to figure out how to maximize pitching usage without increasing his injury risk.

As for the rest of the rotation, Skaggs has looked excellent, Heaney has looked increasingly sharper with every start, and Jaime Barria has more or less stated his claim to a rotation spot. Nick Tropeano's looked very solid when he's been able to go, and Richards is as frustrating as always but at least he's healthy enough to pitch every time around. Add Ohtani into the mix, and that's actually a solid six-man rotation. You can't assume health with this group, but when they're healthy they look good.
   28. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: May 14, 2018 at 10:47 PM (#5672392)
Scioscia has already stated wants to get Ohtani pitching every sixth day instead of seventh. Early on, the team was pretty hesitant because they were dealing with all the question marks in the world, but now they know they've got something truly special and are now trying to figure out how to maximize pitching usage without increasing his injury risk.


OK, so back to Othani. Pitching every 6th day is 27 starts. Assuming he keeps up his routine of taking days off before and after pitching, leads to 3 games in 6 hitting. 81 games. That still gets him little better than 6 WAR on his current production of 181 OPS+ and 119 ERA+*.

*He's currently on pace for 80 games as a hitter, 24 starts.
   29. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 15, 2018 at 04:14 AM (#5672499)
I'm not sure I'd prefer that. When he's in the lineup, that lineup becomes something special. With Heaney and Skaggs and Tropeano and Barria all pitching well, the Angels aren't as desperate for starting pitching as they are for bullpen help or offense. Ohtani is one of the reasons the team's offense has been above average, and the difference between Ohtani's offense and his replacements' is along the lines of about 360 points of OPS. Kind of a big deal!
   30. Rally Posted: May 15, 2018 at 08:27 AM (#5672515)
Just spitballing but should Ohtani get extra WAR credit because he is contributing as a hitter and a pitcher? Theoretically the Angels are saving a roster spot by having a guy who can do both and I think that value is not inconsequential. It may be difficult to assign a numerical value to that quality though.


I think that's reasonable but it can't be too significant. How much WAR do you typically get from the 25th man on the roster? Maybe .1 to .3, can't be more than that.

Exactly. Outfielders have to throw the ball hard at unpredictable moments. This didn't bother Babe Ruth 100 years ago, but I suspect his training regimen wasn't quite as finely calibrated :)


I think its a justifiable concern on both his and the Angels' part that throwing mechanics in the OF are different, and you just don't want to mess with that. Let Kole Calhoun make the big throws from the OF. BTW, for last night's game I would credit Calhoun with the save instead of Anderson.
   31. SoSH U at work Posted: May 15, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5672570)
The question I have - what kind of deployment makes him more valuable as an AL player vs. NL?


If he's in the AL, he gets to pitch and DH, but as we see, he's not doing it at the same time, plus he's getting full rest around hit pitching starts.

If he's in the NL, he has only 9 DH opportunities, but he gets to hit when he pitches; and his bat would be much more valuable than his counterpart (or replacement level) in that situation. He also, in all likelihood, gets used in many more PH opportunities.

Any thoughts AROM?
   32. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 15, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5672578)
I'm not sure I'd prefer that. When he's in the lineup, that lineup becomes something special. With Heaney and Skaggs and Tropeano and Barria all pitching well, the Angels aren't as desperate for starting pitching as they are for bullpen help or offense. Ohtani is one of the reasons the team's offense has been above average, and the difference between Ohtani's offense and his replacements' is along the lines of about 360 points of OPS. Kind of a big deal!
This leads to an interesting question: At what hypothetical point might the gap between the Angels' replacement outfielders and their other SPs become so large that the team goes to Ohtani and says that they need him full-time in the OF/DH rather than pitching? (Or the reverse situation.) Would that ever be a reasonable tradeoff between short and long term? And would he deserve criticism if he refused?*

*Not that anyone here would ever take the team's side in a team vs. player dispute, but let's pretend.
   33. puck Posted: May 15, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5672583)

I think its a justifiable concern on both his and the Angels' part that throwing mechanics in the OF are different, and you just don't want to mess with that. Let Kole Calhoun make the big throws from the OF. BTW, for last night's game I would credit Calhoun with the save instead of Anderson.]


I thought he was joking. People talk about corner outfield spots being hard on the legs with the sprints and quick stops. When an OF is young and healthy it rarely matters, but it does seem like it could be an extra load for a guy who's also a starting pitcher. Otherwise you'd never have to rest an outfielder.

I also figured it's a bit of an academic discussion, teams seem to be afraid of letting pitchers run the bases at times. The Angels are ok with the DH'ing, but probably not playing in the OF, even if Ohtani was willing?
   34. DL from MN Posted: May 15, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5672602)
I can see Ohtani being managed differently in a playoff situation than he is during the regular season. I know they need to get there first but there is some incentive for Ohtani to have some gas in the tank for October.
   35. Rally Posted: May 15, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5672611)
I feel like we're getting greedy here - Ohtani is an amazing player doing something unlike anything seen at the MLB level in 100 years. Sure, he'd be more valuable if he could keep up the production while playing more often. But he is an incredible asset just doing what he's doing.

I also figured it's a bit of an academic discussion, teams seem to be afraid of letting pitchers run the bases at times. The Angels are ok with the DH'ing, but probably not playing in the OF, even if Ohtani was willing?


I don't think the concern is the running. Angels had to push back one start due to a minor ankle injury, but it wasn't bad enough to keep from DHing. There is the occasional running into walls to worry about, but I think the main concern is throwing. A pitcher can do some long distance throwing in between starts, but I know I'd hold my breath if I saw him unleash a max effort throw from the OF under game situations when his arm is supposed to be recovering from his last start.
   36. Rally Posted: May 15, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5672623)
If he's in the NL, he has only 9 DH opportunities, but he gets to hit when he pitches; and his bat would be much more valuable than his counterpart (or replacement level) in that situation. He also, in all likelihood, gets used in many more PH opportunities.

Any thoughts AROM?


Might be kind of close. As a DH playing about 81 games, he would end up with 2 to 2.5 WAR if he can maintain something like a 140 OPS+. That's a big regression from his first 20 games sure, but that's also the career figure for David Ortiz.

Check out Carlos Zambrano in 2008 - hit .337, without a walk but a .554 SLG. That was worth 1.2 WAR over a pitcher. Maybe he can pick up another .5 as a 9 game DH and then a regular pinch hitter.

Probably a bit more valuable in the AL but any team in either league would kill to have a player like him.
   37. bunyon Posted: May 15, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5672633)
Assuming he keeps up his routine of taking days off before and after pitching,

This is where I would go for extra value. I have no idea what effect it would have on the pitching but, I wouldn't think, much. At least physically. Give him some time to prepare mentally and it might work.

As DL says, I can't see any way the Angels wouldn't have him at DH before and after a start in the playoffs. Right? And you definitely want him to pitch. If possible, use him in game 1 (so he gets the day before off) and then he DHs unless pitching.

In a seven game series, if he pitched game 2, he would go:

Off, pitch, travel day, DH, DH, DH, travel day, DH, DH

I guess, if he's only going every Sunday, he can't pitch twice in a series unless he goes in game 1. So:

Pitch, off, travel, DH, DH, DH, travel, pitch, (Here is the rub: does he DH after pitching?)

Edit: I screwed up the math. So, ALCS for the Angels ideally: Pitch, DH, travel, DH, DH, DH, travel, pitch, DH. I have to think DHing after pitching is better than pitching after DHing. By pitching him game 1, he gets a day off before each start. He'd have to DH the game after. I actually think they should let him do this a couple of times in the regular season in preparation.

And then the other big question, if we're to get well ahead of ourselves: he can only DH. So, it looks to me like the Angels are better off if the NL has homefield:

NL Home

Pitch, off, travel, DH, DH, DH, travel, pitch, bench

AL Home

DH, DH, travel, pitch, bench, bench, travel, DH, DH

Eh, it's a tossup, I guess. Two games pitched, three DH vs. One game pitched, four DH.

And, as Rally says, we're greedy now. If you'd told me he'd be this good when he signed I wouldn't have believed it.

Also, no way should you put him in the field. He's already doing more than we can imagine. Making him work on a position and the extra wear and tear and injury risk is asking for trouble, IMHO.
   38. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 15, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5672701)
OK, so back to Othani. Pitching every 6th day is 27 starts.

That's every sixth game. Every sixth day is 31 starts.
   39. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: May 15, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5672841)
If in the future he gets to starting every 6th day and hitting in four games out of six, that'd be about 31 starts and 108 games over the course of a season. If he peaks in the same season and is basically an inhuman combination of David Ortiz and Justin Verlander, that's about 4 batting WAR and 7 pitching WAR. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility as a ceiling, though obviously it's gotta be at like the 95th %tile projection.

A more reasonable expectation is a guy with a 120 OPS+ bat and 130 ERA+ arm, and that's about 2 batting WAR and 4.5 pitching WAR... which is close to what Miserlou was indicating.

I feel like we're getting greedy here


Well, yeah. Who wouldn't want to see even MORE from Ohtani. Let him create the 200/200 club. That is, a 200 OPS+ and a 200 ERA+.
   40. Nasty Nate Posted: May 15, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5672845)
How about 100 hits and 100 innings? Ruth did it in 1919.
   41. Ziggy's screen name Posted: May 15, 2018 at 03:44 PM (#5672858)
I thought for a while that it might make sense to make him a RP. Have him play the outfield on a regular basis, and then bring him in to pitch when necessary. You know, little league style. Better in the NL where you don't lose your DH, but make him the closer and it (usually) won't matter.
   42. bunyon Posted: May 15, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5672889)
I think the trouble with that (edit: post 41) is that Ohtani, like most pitchers but maybe even a little more than most pitchers, has a routine. I mean, if the guy doesn't want to DH the day before or after pitching, you think he'll want to jog in from RF to pitch to a couple of batters? I'm not knocking him, he's great. But he and the Angels clearly have some limits on how they'll use him that may well preclude him from being superman.

I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility as a ceiling, though obviously it's gotta be at like the 95th %tile projection.

This comes down to what we mean by ceiling, I guess. Is it a realistic expectation or the absolute, tippy top projection. I think of it as the latter. Given that, his ceiling is improving a bit from here in hitting and pitching because, hey, 23 year olds progress usually, AND getting to the point that he can DH 155 games a year and make 35 starts.

Do I think that's likely? Hell, no. But it's what I would mean by ceiling. I think misirlou's projection is very reasonable, neither pessimistic, at all, or crazy optimistic. I actually sort of expect Ohtani will slide back some and never compile as many games played as we'd like. But that will still be a hell of a player. My only quibble with misirlou's projection is how he uses the word "ceiling" which, again, to me means crazy wild right side of the curve.

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