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Monday, October 23, 2017

Aaron Judge Named Sporting News AL Rookie Of The Year

Something of a landslide:

1. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees: 138

2. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox: 1

3. Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros: 1

Only need to revoke two voting privileges. Pretty good!

The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 23, 2017 at 06:07 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aaron judge, awards and honors, new york yankees, rookie of the year, sporting news

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   1. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: October 23, 2017 at 08:39 PM (#5560697)
I suppose Judge winning was so obvious that those two chuckleheads decided to give their hometown boys a shout out.

Play it straight, guys. Vote for the best player, and there isn't a metric out there putting either of them ahead of Judge.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:18 PM (#5560705)
Gurriel isn't even a rookie.

This is embarrassing. 8 WAR vs 2. You can hate on advanced stats all you want, but this is something else.
   3. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:49 PM (#5560712)
I'm shocked. I'm making my shocked face.
   4. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 23, 2017 at 10:17 PM (#5560721)
2. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox: 1

It was probably that home run he hit off Verlander.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 23, 2017 at 10:35 PM (#5560723)
Not unanimous is just odd. I'd like to say as a Red Sox fan that I could maybe squint and maybe see a reason to put Benintendi first..but there is just no justification for that. Neither me nor Constanza can squint and see any racoons on this drive home.
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 23, 2017 at 10:50 PM (#5560729)
It's not the official award, just The Sporting News accolade, so the outlier voters may not have taken it that seriously, and it's not like they were erudite sports writers:
Aaron Judge is Sporting News' 2017 American League Rookie of the Year, as selected through a panel of 140 AL players.

So, maybe just tar & feathers, rather than a public flogging.
   7. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 23, 2017 at 11:05 PM (#5560733)
#6, Yeah I know it's not the official award but still 1 (I'm assuming) Red Sox player voted for Benintendi and that's just silly. Judge was a monster this year and Benintendi had what could be classified as a nice rookie season.
Now of course if Judge strikes out 225 times next season and gets a regular diet of curves and sliders from right handed pitching only, then he may come back to earth a bit.
I don't think Benintendi is far off developing into a regular 4 WAR player so that will be nice for the Red Sox, so it will be interesting to see their development.

Of course if Judge learns to command the strike zone like Joey Votto then he turns into Babe Ruth...so there is that.
   8. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 24, 2017 at 12:17 AM (#5560746)

The Sporting News is still in business?
   9. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 24, 2017 at 02:48 AM (#5560754)
Yes. And for winning their award, Aaron Judge will be receiving a brand new Chalmers automobile.
   10. Bote Man Posted: October 24, 2017 at 04:10 AM (#5560757)
This is embarrassing. 8 WAR vs 2. You can hate on advanced stats all you want, but this is something else.

But you can't measure HEART. Nor GRIT.
   11. BDC Posted: October 24, 2017 at 08:28 AM (#5560769)
1 (I'm assuming) Red Sox player voted for Benintendi

It would make sense to structure the voting so that you can't vote for a teammate. (Some other award is/was structured that way, but I forget which.) That way there would have been 9.333 (?? 140/15? I have to assume they distributed 150 ballots and 10 were not returned) votes that did not go to Judge, but sans outrage.

Of course the Red Sox sorehead still could have voted for Gurriel …
   12. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 24, 2017 at 08:42 AM (#5560773)
I'm always fascinated at these threads. 140 votes, 138 for Judge and he wins the award so let's focus on the 2 dumb votes.
   13. Rally Posted: October 24, 2017 at 08:43 AM (#5560774)
Now of course if Judge strikes out 225 times next season and gets a regular diet of curves and sliders from right handed pitching only, then he may come back to earth a bit.


That's only 17 more strikeouts than he had this year. If he struck out 225 times but did the same damage on contact he'd end up hitting something like .275 with 50 homers.
   14. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: October 24, 2017 at 08:49 AM (#5560779)
I'm always fascinated at these threads. 140 votes, 138 for Judge and he wins the award so let's focus on the 2 dumb votes.


Nature of the beast considering that there's absolutely nothing to argue about otherwise. But I'll take a 98%+ correct choice voting group any time, I wish the Hall of Fame vote could reach that close to unanimity on no-brainers.
   15. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 24, 2017 at 09:21 AM (#5560785)
I'm always fascinated at these threads. 140 votes, 138 for Judge and he wins the award so let's focus on the 2 dumb votes.
It's the internet.

Rule #1: Point out what a complete f'n idiot someone is, how you'd be much better at their job, and how they deserve a horrible death for not agreeing with you.
Rule #2: If you're too late for #1, be sure to pile on.

God forbid we just congratulate Judge for winning because of his awesome season.
   16. Nasty Nate Posted: October 24, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5560801)
I'm always fascinated at these threads. 140 votes, 138 for Judge and he wins the award so let's focus on the 2 dumb votes.
I agree ... or maybe I would use a different word than "fascinated." People want to get down in the weeds about individual votes for Sporting News honors? Really?

Anyway, great season for Judge, with an impressive, to put it mildly, September after a little bit of slumping. He mirrored that somewhat in the playoffs with a power burst after not hitting much from the ALDS to the middle of the ALCS. And as far as I know, he handled his fame and responsibility with maturity.
   17. manchestermets Posted: October 24, 2017 at 10:06 AM (#5560813)
Some other award is/was structured that way, but I forget which.


Voters (all the players) in the Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year awards in English soccer aren't allowed to vote for a team-mate, though I suspect this wasn't what you were thinking of.
   18. SoSH U at work Posted: October 24, 2017 at 10:46 AM (#5560842)
That way there would have been 9.333 (?? 140/15? I have to assume they distributed 150 ballots and 10 were not returned) votes that did not go to Judge, but sans outrage.


I'd assume they sent many, many more than 150, and 140 were returned. The NL rookie race had 102 votes.

If I had to choose one of the players in the AL who was most likely to have left Judge off his AL ballot, I'd select Judge.

   19. BDC Posted: October 24, 2017 at 12:38 PM (#5560939)
If I had to choose one of the players in the AL who was most likely to have left Judge off his AL ballot, I'd select Judge.

That's an excellent point. Here I was assuming the Sporting News wouldn't let rookies vote on their Rookie of the Year award, but I may really be overthinking the care they put into the process :-D
   20. Morty Causa Posted: October 24, 2017 at 12:50 PM (#5560946)
Judge is a pretty old "great" rookie.
   21. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 24, 2017 at 01:51 PM (#5560988)
Some other award is/was structured that way, but I forget which.
The Gold Gloves are, or were. Managers/coaches voted, but could not vote for their own players.
   22. Rally Posted: October 24, 2017 at 02:09 PM (#5560999)
Judge is a pretty old "great" rookie.


At 24 in 2016, he wasn't particularly young for a AAA prospect. He hit 270/366/489. Then in MLB hits 284/422/627. Usually it's the other way around.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5561111)
The transformation of Judge is pretty inexplicable so I suppose that what comes out of nowhere can always leave as quickly. And he is old for this sort of thing. But I looked at it a couple of times, including near the end of his slump ... and it's just the case that guys who reach this level (150+ OPS+) at (much less before) age 25 tend to stay really good hitters. They don't all stay at that level but they stay good. The main exception was Richard Hidalgo who had just one more season like this left in him.

And that was all before he ended that slump in a huge way with a 1352 OPS in Sept. In the above poking around, the overall quality of the hitter dropped substantially as you approached 150 which I believe is about where Judge was as the slump ended. Slamming his way back to 170 suggests he belongs in the more elite group. So, based on history, Judge is almost certain to keep hitting -- likely not this amazingly well and maybe not after 32-33, but the guy's going to be a good hitter for the next several seasons. Or he's going to be Richard Hidalgo.

(I don't seem to have saved my P-I list of Judge comps so I won't bother to re-run anything.)

I do wonder if we've been seeing these transformations more often, whether at the ML level (Bautista, EE, Murphy, Turner) or among older prospects (Judge, Chris Taylor, Donaldson). I'm not sure how to isolate those types in P-I.
   24. Morty Causa Posted: October 24, 2017 at 05:15 PM (#5561159)
Weade Boggs wasn't exactly the same sort of hitter, but he came up "old" and stayed very good for a long while. Boggs was ready for the show long before he got the chance, I think. Judge, eh?

There are few Ted Williamses who win a triple crown in their last minor league season at 19, and are pretty much triple crown hitters across the breadth of their career. Few? There's one.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2017 at 10:34 PM (#5561497)
I will forever dispute that Boggs was ready "long" before he got the chance. He debuted at 24, not spending a single day in the minors that season.

21 at AA: 325/420/377 -- You love the BA but it translates to probably something like 280 in the majors. The power is pathetic -- 17 doubles and 2 triples in 476 PA. He's only 21 so this is promising but it's not ready.

22 at AAA: 306/396/364 -- That too translates to about a 280 BA and still no power -- 21 doubles, no triples, 1 HR in 486 PA. Certainly makes sense to at least start him at AAA the next year.

23 at AAA: 335/437/460 -- Now we're talking! That projects to probably about a 310 BA and he smacked 41 doubles.

24 in MLB: 349/406/441 -- Note the BA was better than any season in the minors so that was unexpected to say the least.

So sure, sometime mid-23 season he was demonstrably ready. Possibly you could argue he'd shown enough through age 22 that he was a good bet to hit well enough for a good-fielding 3B (i.e. a 90-95 OPS+).

It is of course easy to argue that given how well he did hit when he arrived that he must have been ready some time before that but that is a different thing than saying he had demonstrated that he was ready. Also maybe a half-season to possible full season is your definition of "long".
   26. Morty Causa Posted: October 24, 2017 at 11:16 PM (#5561553)
I'm pretty sure Bill James said that in one of the abstracts right around the time Boggs appeared. He also said, if I'm not mistaken, that Pawtucket was a pitcher's park. But, I'll defer to any further objective analysis that would supervene James's assertions.
   27. eric Posted: October 25, 2017 at 12:12 AM (#5561597)
Yeah, James predicted Boggs would actually hit better in MLB due to going from one of the biggest pitchers' parks in AAA to one of, if not the biggest hitters' parks in MLB. I think in modern day Boggs would have been in MLB at 22.

Edit: looked up the Boston 3B situation and in 1980 it was Butch(er) Hobson with his 68 OPS+ and awful glove. I don't doubt with modern evaluation Boggs gets a look then at 22 and the trade for Lansford never happens. Now I'm just bewildered why that didn't actually happen even then.
   28. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 25, 2017 at 08:57 AM (#5561646)
I don't think it's that surprising that Boggs had to wait a bit to get called up. He didn't have a minor league SLG over .400 until his last season. The Sox saw him as a slow, singles hitting, poor fielding third baseman. It's easy now to say "man, this guy should've been playing two years before he was" but I think that is hindsight at its best.
   29. Ithaca2323 Posted: October 25, 2017 at 10:15 AM (#5561705)
I'm always fascinated at these threads. 140 votes, 138 for Judge and he wins the award so let's focus on the 2 dumb votes.


I mean, it's a player vote, but for the awards by writers, my issue is process, not product.

If somebody decided they're not going to vote for player X for some award for some inane reason, where else might they apply that logic where it can cost someone the award?
   30. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2017 at 12:21 AM (#5562643)
Yeah, James predicted Boggs would actually hit better in MLB due to going from one of the biggest pitchers' parks in AAA to one of, if not the biggest hitters' parks in MLB.

Which is to say that James predicted he was ready after his age 22 season, adding at most a full season to his career ... and more PT at 24.

I don't doubt with modern evaluation Boggs gets a look then at 22 and the trade for Lansford never happens.

Possibly but to repeat myself and support Jose ... he had just 21 doubles and 1 HR at age 22 at AAA, an ISO of 058. And at 22, he hit 306 at AAA so even if you could expect him to hit better, you wouldn't expect him to hit 340. Because of the Monster, you might expect more than 21 doubles but not 40+. At 23, he did hit 41 doubles and 335 BA and that's a guy who's gonna project to be pretty good.

That said, how right was James? He hit those 41 doubles at AAA but basically stayed at that 40 double-level for his career. So 41 doubles in 593 AAA PA to 44 doubles in 685 AAA PA. His BA did go up pretty substantially.

Without question, walks weren't paid much attention to and they argue for Boggs playing. I think we still aren't sure how well minor-league walks translate but that bias certainly led to an under-valuing of Boggs. And you did find some 2B that put up sorta Boggs-y lines at the time ... more in OBP/SLG with far lower BAs ... Whitaker for 78-80 had a OBP/SLG of 361/338; Randolph at 394/377 ... so you can argue that a Boggsian 310/400/360 line could/should have played at age 23. The closest Boggsian line I see for a 3B is Harrah at 374/396.

On minor-league park effects ... maybe. James wouldn't have had access to the detailed data of today I don't think. I'm a little surprised he even had minor-league H/R splits (or did he calculate them himself from game results? But it's hard to think what park effect is going to affect a LD hitter. Power hitters sure, crappy infields maybe. But if there's evidence it deflated BA by 20-30 points (on the season, not just relative to road) then it would be enough to counter-act a typical AAA to ML conversion effect on BA. And based on a couple of more recent listings I found, Pawtucket does indeed inflate HRs while deflating BABIP. Anyway, b-r doesn't have minors H/R going back (that I can find) so ...

The 1980 team didn't have much hitting talent on it. Dave Stapleton was still stuck in AAA at 26, hit 340 in a small sample that year, hit 306 the year before and 259 the year before. And he did hit 321 in Boston that year but then fell back to 285, 264 and 247. Rich Gedman hit 236 at age 20 then 296 in a few PA at 21 before getting the permanent call to the majors. He had a weird time in the majors bouncing around between about 260 to nearly 296 but never out-hit that 296.

The 1981 team added 23-year-old Marty Barrett who hit 265 then 300 (then 345 in a small sample). He bounced around from about 270 to 300 when he got PT in Boston. Chico Walker was a AAAA player I only know because he landed on the Cubs at one point. He made Pawtucket at 21, hitting 272, 277, 251 and 269 in full AAA seasons. He ended up hitting 246 in his 1200 ML PAs (but mostly in his 30s).

Glenn Hoffman made AAA at 20 back in 79 then the majors for good at 21. He did basically reproduce his AAA line at 21 and a couple of other years but was generally a terrible hitter (68 OPS+). The 78 team added Gary Allenson at 23 with a line of 299/399/517. That got him a promotion but he was never more than a bench player who hit 221.

That's really about it for Pawtucket to the majors transitions around that time. Guys generally did a fairly good job of reproducing their AAA lines, at least for a season here or there but none of that (not overly talented) handful exceeded it. I'd also say that several of those players show that the Red Sox were reasonably aggressive in promoting players -- Gedman and Hoffman at 20, Walker at 21, Boggs at 22. So it would be hard to argue they held him back due to a bias against young players (in case anybody wanted to make that argument).

In the end, sure, I can buy that Boggs after age 22 might have projected to 300/???/350 which given era, ??? and that he was actually a good-fielding 3B could have played at age 23. I don't think anybody would think it would hurt to give him more time at AAA either. Any chance Szym is eavesdropping and wants to fill us in on a ZiPS projection for 1981?

Hoffman and Stapleton (and Tony Perez) were arguably the guys who really blocked/delayed Boggs. Burleson for Lansford opened playing time for Hoffman. Burleson had only one good season left in him but that plus Boggs (even as projected) might still have been better than two years of Hoffman/Lansford. Perez was the main 1B in 1981 then Stapleton in 1982 and neither hit well enough for 1B so even after the Lansford trade, moving him to 1B to play Boggs probably would have worked out better.
   31. BDC Posted: October 26, 2017 at 08:24 AM (#5562738)
I think we still aren't sure how well minor-league walks translate but that bias certainly led to an under-valuing of Boggs

Compounded by Boggs' lack of base-stealing speed. Rickey Henderson is the same age and was in the majors four years sooner: if Boggs had been a little ####in' flea on the bases, he would have fit everyone's image of a leadoff hitter c1980.

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