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Thursday, January 02, 2014

About Adam Jones’ Defense -

Interesting stuff.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 02, 2014 at 02:31 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: adam jones, defense, sabermetrics, scouting reports

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: January 02, 2014 at 03:05 PM (#4628429)
Here is the list of centerfielders who have played over 300 games in the AL since 2011... I think that is pretty much all you need to know about how this vote happened.

Rk              Player Rfield OPSFrom   To   Age   G
1           Adam Jones    
-22  117 2011 2013 25-27 473
2       Austin Jackson     37  106 2011 2013 24
-26 419
3           Coco Crisp      8  105 2011 2013 31
-33 387
4    Curtis Granderson    
-13  124 2011 2013 30-32 377
5      Jacoby Ellsbury     23  122 2011 2013 27
-29 366 
   2. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: January 02, 2014 at 03:09 PM (#4628435)
I don't think Jones is as bad as some of the metrics suggest, but I certainly don't think he's above average or deserved to win the GG. I think his true talent is -5 or so; slightly below average, but not awful. But the GG is easy to explain -- he occasionally makes a spectacular play, he has a terrific arm, and he's a good hitter.
   3. villageidiom Posted: January 02, 2014 at 03:10 PM (#4628436)
Ellsbury 2013 CF

Comparing Ellsbury to Jones...

(a) On made plays, why is there more dead space for Ellsbury? Jones' made plays are basically a giant green blob, with a few small white spots. Ellsbury's made plays are all over the place, which is a testament to his range, and that's fine; but there's a lot of white space in the heart of CF. Did he have many fewer opportunities, so the spray chart looks more sparse? Was it something to do with how Red Sox pitchers were hit?

(b) On missed plays, it's pretty obvious that Jones misses a lot more 50/50 balls, and many more that are low-probability, than Ellsbury. The follow-up to that is... why? Look at the shallow end of Ellsbury's "made plays" chart, and see that he has very few 50/50 balls. Now look at the same area on the "missed plays" chart, and he has very few 50/50 balls. For Ellsbury they were scored 100% catchable if he caught it, and 0% catchable if he didn't. That seems like either a remarkable coincidence or a substantial bias in how these things are tallied.

I think Ellsbury's great, and I think Jones is OK, but this here is a fine example of why we need to understand this stuff more before running off and making definitive statements on defensive stats.
   4. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 02, 2014 at 03:11 PM (#4628439)
   5. villageidiom Posted: January 02, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4628467)
Post #3 started with a test of embedding, which failed; hence #4's comment. I've replaced the embedding with a link, and related commentary. Sorry for the confusion, if any. (Too late to edit #3 to include this comment there.)
   6. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 02, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4628483)
I haven't seen much of that Lagares kid from the Mets, but his rate stats are pretty incredible. Really, just a lot of guys this year had off the charts defensive numbers.
   7. villageidiom Posted: January 02, 2014 at 08:23 PM (#4628767)
Figured out the problem on #3(a)... The Adam Jones spray charts are for two seasons, and I was looking at just one for Ellsbury.

Ellsbury 2012-13 CF

Same point holds on (b), but slightly weaker. There's one shallow ball Ellsbury didn't field that would be considered a 50/50 ball. There are three* shallow 50/50 balls he did field in that same range. If he's fielding 75% of shallow balls that other CFers would field 50% of the time, that's a good sign... But in two years there were only 4 such balls hit to Ellsbury? Is that a reflection of reality, or classification bias?

Same with Mike Trout.

* I'm defining "shallow" fairly liberally here. One of the 50/50 balls he caught is not that shallow.
   8. Bote Man Posted: January 03, 2014 at 01:20 AM (#4628933)
Is FIELDf/x available to the public? It seems that it would go a long way toward answering such questions definitively.

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