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Thursday, December 05, 2013

Abraham: For Jacoby Ellsbury, it was a one-way street out of town

Jacobiy: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About the Deal* (*But Were Afraid to Ask).

Players prioritize different things. Ellsbury’s priority was getting every dime he could, and good for him. All of us, no matter what we do for a living, want what we’re worth. In this market, he was worth $153 million to the Yankees, an aging third-place team that built a stadium they can’t fill very often.

He was not worth that to the Red Sox, a team with a smaller payroll and a significantly better farm system. The Red Sox learned their lesson with Crawford that paying for a fast player to get old is risky.

I never got the impression Ellsbury much liked Boston. He rarely interacted with fans or in the community. Think about it, when was the last time you saw a photo of him in something other than a baseball uniform? This was the team that happened to draft him, that’s all. Strictly business.

And it was good business for both sides. For $20 million over seven seasons, the Sox got a 21.0 WAR out of Ellsbury and two World Series titles that he played a major role in. The player got a stage to showcase his talents and land a big contract.

Many fans were outraged that he signed with the Yankees. That’s not paying close attention. In word and deed, Ellsbury made it clear he was setting himself up for a payday. As Scott Lauber of the Herald wrote on Twitter, Ellsbury would have signed with North Korea if they offered the most money.

...Be heartened with the knowledge that the Red Sox are better off long-term. Jackie Bradley Jr. will give the team 75 percent of the production Ellsbury did at, literally, 2 percent of the price for the next three years. The Sox can take the money and better spend it elsewhere. Extending Lester would be a good place to start.

Ellsbury will be a solid player for the Yankees but he’s no superstar. He made the All-Star team once in his career and is a leadoff hitter who doesn’t walk enough. Scott Boras somehow got Ellsbury a contract befitting a No. 3 hitter and MVP candidate. That Boras let a client of his sign so early in the process was a sign of how ridiculous the offer was.

Young players, depth, and roster flexibility are what matter in baseball’s post-steroid era. The Red Sox will be well-served to play Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Workman, and the rest of their kids. Some of those guys will stick around because they’ll love Boston and the atmosphere. Others will leave.

There are two roads for a player to take. One is to make it clear you want to stay, like Pedroia. The other is to leave as soon as you can, like Papelbon. For Ellsbury, there was never really a question which path he would take.

Repoz Posted: December 05, 2013 at 07:05 AM | 66 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox, yankees

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   1. john_halfz Posted: December 05, 2013 at 08:17 AM (#4610962)
This guy is such a blowhard. Sorry, Pete, that Jacoby wasn't an easy interview.
   2. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 08:25 AM (#4610963)
He hits most of the key points you'd expect from a bitter Sawks lickspittle but missed the wishing injury on the exiting player. 6/10, would not re-read.
   3. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 08:50 AM (#4610969)
Jesus, I used to like Abraham when he was doing the LoHud Yankee blog, even though I didn't always agree. Has he just descended into this kind foolishness all the time? Yikes.
   4. villageidiom Posted: December 05, 2013 at 08:55 AM (#4610971)
I read this not so much as a bitter complaint about a departing player, but rather as a public argument that Nick Cafardo had his head up his ass for thinking Ellsbury was going to return. And in that sense, he's spot on.

Most Red Sox fans I know are disappointed he won't be back with Boston, and disappointed he will be with the Yankees. I don't know anyone who is surprised by either. It's been assumed for the last couple of years that Ellsbury would leave in free agency, and one should never be surprised the Yankees would be a destination for a top free agent at a position they need to fill. For Cafardo to think, given absolutely no evidence* in the past 5 years or so, that a Red Sox / Ellsbury transaction was likely to happen is about as laughable as it gets.

* The only evidence in that span is the Crawford contract, and is only evidence on the basis that "well, they've spent that kind of money before, so they must be OK with it", which the new GM has spent the last couple of years demonstrating how they're not OK with it.
   5. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 05, 2013 at 09:27 AM (#4610978)
I don't like PeteAbe but I think he's generally right about Ellsbury. I don't think Ellsbury ever felt any particularly meaningful connection to Boston. Some (a lot?) of that probably stemmed from the 2010 misdiagnosis and a not too subtle whisper campaign about his "toughness." For that reason I can't really blame Ellsbury for leaving nor for going to the Yankees. This isn't Johnny Damon who said he wouldn't go to the Yankees then did, Ellsbury has never said otherwise.

None of that is intended as a negative view of Ellsbury. I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing but I think the general point, that Ellsbury and Boston never really fell in love with each other, is almost certainly true.
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:00 AM (#4610994)
Regardless of what you think of Pete Abraham, the core of his thesis is spot on, in my opinion.

Yesterday, Johnny Damon - a successful Red Sox center fielder who went to New York soon after being an important part of a World Champion in Boston - was interviewed on Boston's WEEI sports radio talk station. It actually was an excellent, candid conversation, and Damon gave a lot of "inside" info about the way his contract status went after the 2005 season.

At any rate, they asked Damon why Ellsbury went to the Yankees. Was it a "bleep you" to Boston? Was it the short right-field porch? Was it Jeter? Damon really summarized the whole subject in his one-line answer:

"I can think of 153 million reasons he went to New York."

Nobody else was going to give Ellsbury this kind of money, certainly not Boston. He is now set for life in a way none of us can even imagine...and that's not even taking into account that he is a very good-looking guy with flashy on-field skills, a catchy name, playing CF for the New York Yankees. He can likely receive significant endorsement money previously not available to him, if he wants to go that route.

This was a very transparent process for Ellsbury, without an ounce of BS from him.

As a devoted Red Sox fan, I (and many others) say: Jacoby, thanks for helping us win two titles while you were here. You were injured a lot, but when you were on the field, you were a good player, and a lot of fun to watch. We'll give you a standing ovation the first time you come back to Boston, and we hope you do well...except when you play the Red Sox. Against us, I hope you go 0-for-4.
   7. joeysdadjoe Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:06 AM (#4610997)
I thought Seattle offered 8 or 9 years? Seems to me if you just won a WS and another team beats their bid by 50m you leave.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:13 AM (#4611001)
I think it arrogant to presume knowledge of his priorities or feelings simply because he didn't sign in Boston and/or he signed w new York.
   9. AROM Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:16 AM (#4611002)
I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing but I think the general point, that Ellsbury and Boston never really fell in love with each other, is almost certainly true.


I'd say more of the team - reports are that they didn't even offer 100 million. Ellsbury may have enjoyed every bit of his time there and wanted to stay, but if the best offer was 60% of his market value that's pretty tough to stay. If Ellsbury got a Crawford offer from Boston and turned it down to get 10% more from the Yankees, then you can say he didn't really want to stay, but I don't think that offer was there.
   10. SG Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:23 AM (#4611008)
I wonder if Abraham feels the same way about someone who would leave their newspaper for another.
   11. GregD Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:36 AM (#4611017)
I don't know if Ellsbury's view of the team's medical staff was accurate or not, but I think that alone would be reason to leave an organization. If you truly believed they had misdiagnosed and then misled you, you would want to leave for your own future health, right? He may be totally foolish in thinking that, but if he thinks that, then leaving is not only rational but basically an imperative.
   12. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:39 AM (#4611019)
this kind of article that poses as "mature" and "realistic" while throwing food to the trolls is such a drag.....

...but you know, Pedroia took what, 65%? of market value to play in Boston, & so the example of lil Dusty will be available as the standard of Tru Sox behavior for a long time. The ######-up thing is implying that the Pedroia type should be the norm.
   13. SG Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:39 AM (#4611020)
If you truly believed they had misdiagnosed and then misled you, you would want to leave for your own future health, right?


This may have played a part if he was looking at two similar offers, but I think he was going to sign with whomever offered him the most and the Yankees effectively guaranteed him about twice as much as Boston was willing to.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:40 AM (#4611022)
I think its hilarious when "player taking more money from another team" means he didn't like his original city. Maybe he just really likes money, as we all do. Its not like he signed to play for Kabul.
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:40 AM (#4611023)
When are we going to hear that this column (and others) was planted by the all-powerful evil media puppeteers Lucchino and Henry to smear a player on the way out of town?
   16. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: December 05, 2013 at 10:46 AM (#4611027)
I wonder if Abraham feels the same way about someone who would leave their newspaper for another.


Indeed. The irony of Pete Abraham publishing this column is as rich as the foie gras Jacoby Ellsbury can afford to eat for the rest of his life.
   17. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4611084)
LET THE SMEAR CAMPAIGN BEGIN!
   18. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 11:52 AM (#4611088)
I think it arrogant to presume knowledge of his priorities or feelings simply because he didn't sign in Boston and/or he signed w new York.


I think it naive to presume anyone's first (really only) priority isn't to get as much money as he can.
   19. Accent Shallow Posted: December 05, 2013 at 12:19 PM (#4611119)
...but you know, Pedroia took what, 65%? of market value to play in Boston, & so the example of lil Dusty will be available as the standard of Tru Sox behavior for a long time. The ######-up thing is implying that the Pedroia type should be the norm.

But Pedroia wasn't a free agent at the time, that was an extension. Maybe he took below what you would expect for an extension, but no one extends players at the market rate.
   20. john_halfz Posted: December 05, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4611132)
Well, I can't say it because the Globe is classy, but get a load of what the Herald is saying: Jacoby would have played for Adolf Hitler if Adolf Hitler gave him enough Deutschemarks. Psst, that's a good joke because maybe it's true.

The weirdest thing about PeteAbe has always been his seeming insecurity and need to ingratiate himself as a knowledgeable everyman to his fans.
   21. Steve N Posted: December 05, 2013 at 12:40 PM (#4611135)
Doesn't this mean that Cano is going elsewhere?
   22. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: December 05, 2013 at 12:53 PM (#4611149)
Not a fan of the Boston media and Abraham's no exception, but I'm not seeing the smear job here. Yeah, yeah, "he just wanted the money", but... so what? Didn't we already know that?
   23. Sean Forman Posted: December 05, 2013 at 01:04 PM (#4611154)
Not a fan of the Boston media and Abraham's no exception, but I'm not seeing the smear job here. Yeah, yeah, "he just wanted the money", but... so what? Didn't we already know that?


I've with you here. Looks like a pretty straightforward piece to me. Not sure where the smear is.
   24. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 01:05 PM (#4611155)
Not a fan of the Boston media and Abraham's no exception, but I'm not seeing the smear job here. Yeah, yeah, "he just wanted the money", but... so what? Didn't we already know that?


It's not really a smear job, but no, we don't know that he "just" wanted the money. That is the presumptuous part.
   25. KT's Pot Arb Posted: December 05, 2013 at 01:28 PM (#4611178)
He rarely interacted with fans or in the community. Think about it, when was the last time you saw a photo of him in something other than a baseball uniform? This was the team that happened to draft him, that’s all. Strictly business.


Yea, Pete couldn't get easy pics of him and he wouldn't hang out with Pete so obviously Jacoby didn't like a single person or fan in Boston.

Ellsbury would have signed with North Korea if they offered the most money.


No smear here. And besides, he's a TRADER!!!!!!
   26. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 05, 2013 at 01:49 PM (#4611191)
[25] Did you mean "traitor"?
   27. SG Posted: December 05, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4611196)
No. trader.
   28. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4611197)
[25] Did you mean "traitor"?


Nope.

Credit to someone else. This was posted in another thread. Which I cannot find. Because I didn't look for it.

ETA: Coke, or whatever. See, me being nice and trying to credit someone else led to my being 2nd here. Never again.
   29. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 02:03 PM (#4611200)
Hey @JacobyEllsbury remember what happened to Damon? Yanks like to pay a lot of money for old Sox to go nowhere. #trader


This one is the best. I remember Damon getting paid a lot of money and winning the WS in 2009, not sure what this idiot remembers.
   30. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 02:15 PM (#4611206)
The column is kind of a contradiction. Ellsbury was going to go for the money. But he really didn't want to play in Boston anyway.

BUT WHAT IF BOSTON HAD OFFERED THE MOST MONEY? Ellsbury's mind just exploded.
   31. Hank G. Posted: December 05, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4611217)
Not a fan of the Boston media and Abraham's no exception, but I'm not seeing the smear job here. Yeah, yeah, "he just wanted the money", but... so what? Didn't we already know that?

I've with you here. Looks like a pretty straightforward piece to me. Not sure where the smear is.


The North Korea slur was a bit much. Sure, the Yankees are an evil empire and they are ruled by the crazy son of the former crazy emperor, but they’re no North Korea.
   32. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 02:36 PM (#4611219)
OK, he's a trader, but is he also a looser?
   33. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 02:37 PM (#4611220)

I think it naive to presume anyone's first (really only) priority isn't to get as much money as he can.


If so, it's unnecessary to point it out concerning Ellsbury, and the proposed contrast between Papelbon/Ellsbury and Pedrioa et al is completely invalid.
   34. Bob Tufts Posted: December 05, 2013 at 02:46 PM (#4611225)
When he was hurt in 2010, Ellsbury got treatment and disappeared from Boston - unlike Varitek and Pedroia, who went to the ballpark every afternoon to work out and do what they could despite their injuries.

This did not sit well with many Red Sox players. Management did not let its feelings be known at the time.

Ellesbury may be a quiet and an introvert who is not comfortable away from the park. Boston is not an easy place to play, but I fear for Jacoby in NYC if he wants to be private.

Who knows? Perhaps some version of this will be used to create a narrative that the September 2011 collapse - and the 2012 debacle - can be traced to Ellsbury?
   35. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:01 PM (#4611232)

Who knows? Perhaps some version of this will be used to create a narrative that the September 2011 collapse - and the 2012 debacle - can be traced to Ellsbury?


It would be an amazingly creative smear job, even by Boston media standards, to link Ellsbury to the September 2011 collapse, considering how well he played during that month.
   36. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:09 PM (#4611236)
Nate, what are you looking for here--can Abraham write anything on this topic without a full accounting from Ellsbury of his inner thoughts and motivations? Copy has to get written, and while it isn't perfect it doesn't seem particularly offensive or smeary, at least in the context of Ellsbury's actions and past hatchet-jobs. YMMV.
   37. bobm Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:19 PM (#4611242)
I wonder if Abraham feels the same way about someone who would leave their newspaper for another.

Indeed. The irony of Pete Abraham publishing this column is as rich as the foie gras Jacoby Ellsbury can afford to eat for the rest of his life.


http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2009/09/17/so-heres-a-little-news-for-you/

I was hoping to keep this quiet another day or two so I could compose my thoughts. But that’s not possible these days.

So here it is: I’m leaving The Journal News after nearly 10 years and going to work for The Boston Globe.

I’ll be covering baseball — yes, the Red Sox — and blogging for Boston.com. The Globe approached me in August, right around the time my newspaper was going through some painful restructuring that you all heard about.

But that was incidental. For many years now, my life has been my job. I covered the UConn basketball team for 13 seasons for The Norwich (Conn.) Bulletin and then the Mets and Yankees for the The Journal News. It was tremendous fun to work for a small paper and then to move up a step on the chain.

Now I get a chance to move up again and live closer to my family. I’m the oldest child in my family and my mom and dad are retired. It means a lot to me to be around them and other members of my family. For years, they’ve been imploring me to come home and now seems like a good time.

But it wasn’t an easy call. I have literally not slept for 48 hours pondering this decision. The Journal News has treated me better than I had any right to expect and tried very hard to convince me to stay. I also really, really love covering the Yankees. It has been the highlight of my professional career. I’m close friends with several other beat writers, too. We try to beat each other’s brains out in the paper, but it always has been with a sense of camaraderie and great respect.

Then there are you guys. This blog was the first by a beat writer in the New York market when it started in 2006 and it’s here today because of your loyalty and your passion for the Yankees. I sort of feel like a circus ringmaster at times, trying to hold it all together. It has been a tremendous ride and I thank you for letting me part of your baseball experience. If I find an audience half as good in Boston, I’ll be thrilled.

If there was a way to work for a larger paper and to advance professionally while still covering the Yankees, I would have really had a dilemma. But you don’t need me to tell you what is going on in the newspaper business. The Globe offered me a great opportunity and, frankly, I would have been foolish not to take it.

I’m sure some of you will accuse me of being a traitor because I’ll be covering the Red Sox. But I consider the regulars here to be my friends. Some of you I have met, some not. Regardless, I hope you can understand why I’m doing this and — who knows? — maybe someday I’ll be back covering the Yankees.

Whether you care to believe this or not, beat writers don’t root for teams. Our teams are our papers. We root for good stories and perhaps for certain people we meet along the way. This is a decision that I made for personal and professional reasons and I hope you can understand that.

I have two weeks left and I’m not going to waver in my commitment to get you as much news as I can on the Yankees.

As always, thanks for reading.

————-

I have been assured by my bosses at The Journal News that they remain committed to Yankees coverage. They are already compiling a list of candidates to replace me. The only thing that will change here is the loss of my ugly mug, and that’s an upgrade. So don’t worry about that.

UPDATE, 8:40 p.m.: Holy cats, thanks for all the e-mails and good wishes posted on the blog. It means a lot to me that I have your support in this. Trust me, it was not an easy decision..

Meanwhile, I’ll be around for two more weeks and I promise one more reader Q&A. We’re going to have some fun. Plus I get a feeling I’ll be blogging the Yankees and Sox in the ALCS and that’ll will be a blast.
   38. GregD Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:21 PM (#4611245)
When he was hurt in 2010, Ellsbury got treatment and disappeared from Boston - unlike Varitek and Pedroia, who went to the ballpark every afternoon to work out and do what they could despite their injuries.
I get the idea that he should have been there supporting his teammates.

I don't know how to balance that against his obvious (though who knows if founded) belief that the Red Sox medical staff had set him back dramatically by misdiagnosing him. I can see why you'd want your own medical treatment under those circumstances.
   39. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4611246)
Well, I can't say it because the Globe is classy, but get a load of what the Herald is saying: Jacoby would have played for Adolf Hitler if Adolf Hitler gave him enough Deutschemarks. Psst, that's a good joke because maybe it's true.

Nope, not true. The currency in Germany under Hitler was the Reichsmark .The Deutschmark wasn't introduced until '48 in West Germany.
   40. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:32 PM (#4611253)
Nate, what are you looking for here--can Abraham write anything on this topic without a full accounting from Ellsbury of his inner thoughts and motivations?


There are lots of topics concerning the trade about which Abraham can write. No one is forcing him to write about Ellsbury's supposed motivations and priorities.

Copy has to get written, and while it isn't perfect it doesn't seem particularly offensive or smeary, at least in the context of Ellsbury's actions and past hatchet-jobs.


I agree, it's not especially bad or smeary. My post #15 was a joke about how the Sox brass are always blamed for everything written in the press about outgoing players.
   41. Dale Sams Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:35 PM (#4611255)
Scott Boras somehow got Ellsbury a contract befitting a No. 3 hitter and MVP candidate


If the Yanks can hold onto a 7 run lead in the 8th and Papelbon throw one decent splitter...then Ellsbury has an MVP trophy.

Also..Ellsbury was supposed to take 53-73 million less?

I never got the impression Ellsbury much liked Boston. He rarely interacted with fans or in the community. Think about it, when was the last time you saw a photo of him in something other than a baseball uniform?


That's smear for those that were asking. By the way, the answer is, "At the parade" Ellsbury has done charity work in Boston. etc..etc...
   42. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: December 05, 2013 at 03:55 PM (#4611266)
I never got the impression Ellsbury much liked Boston. He rarely interacted with fans or in the community. Think about it, when was the last time you saw a photo of him in something other than a baseball uniform?


If that's smear then you are a lot more sensitive than I am. PeteAbe doesn't say Ellsbury is a bad guy or wasn't friendly, just says that he didn't seem to like Boston much.

I really don't see what Abraham does here that's terrible. He is pretty clear that this is his opinion based on his interaction with the guy and actively notes that Ellsbury has every right to do what he did. All he's doing is refuting Cafardo's silly column where he express surprise at Ellsbury leaving.

Every player has a right to determine his worth on the open market and Ellsbury took full advantage of that. Just because Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz showed loyalty to the organization that drafted them and signed extensions doesn't mean Ellsbury had to.
   43. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 04:05 PM (#4611272)
Jose, that paragraph you quoted about loyalty is bogus. Signing a contract extension is not evidence of a character trait, nor is becoming a free agent evidence of a void of loyalty.
   44. Dale Sams Posted: December 05, 2013 at 04:11 PM (#4611279)
Young players, depth, and roster flexibility are what matter in baseball’s post-steroid era. The Red Sox will be well-served to play Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Workman, and the rest of their kids. Some of those guys will stick around because they’ll love Boston and the atmosphere. Others will leave.

There are two roads for a player to take. One is to make it clear you want to stay, like Pedroia. The other is to leave as soon as you can, like Papelbon. For Ellsbury, there was never really a question which path he would take.


Jose...that is as passive-aggressive as they come. No, the article isn't a CHB hatchet job, but it is pretty passive-aggressive.

Btw, The Sox signed Mujica. I like that signing. (sticks tongue out at Nate)
   45. AROM Posted: December 05, 2013 at 04:14 PM (#4611281)
It would be an amazingly creative smear job, even by Boston media standards, to link Ellsbury to the September 2011 collapse, considering how well he played during that month.


When he hit the extra inning homer to beat the Yankees on the last Sunday night baseball game, he was only doing it to make sure the collapse was not complete until the final day. Just making sure there was drama.
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 04:15 PM (#4611282)
(sticks tongue out at Nate)


stop stalking me!
heh heh
   47. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 04:22 PM (#4611287)
This is really passive aggressive. Why can't a Boston sportswriter just type something up remembering the good times and wishing Jacoby the best? It shouldn't be that hard. The guy was part of two World Series teams, and was a very good player for the Red Sox. Tip your cap and act like a goddamned adult.
   48. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: December 05, 2013 at 05:22 PM (#4611335)
#47, you're seriously expecting Boston sportswriters to act like adults?

Pete Abe's column isn't terrible, certainly much better than Cafardo's (which isn't saying much). Both articles are pandering to the mouthbreathers who stupidly took to twitter to label Ellsbury a "trader." I cannot imagine a stupider stance to make and frankly I think it's by far the minority; most people I'm talking to seem to feel, like we do here, that he did a good job in Boston and that he'd be a fool not to take that dumptruck filled with money. And most people also think Cherington should be shot had he offered that same contract to Ellsbury that he got from New York.
   49. tfbg9 Posted: December 05, 2013 at 05:35 PM (#4611342)
Btw, The Sox signed Mujica. I like that signing.


Me too. He never walks anybody.
   50. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: December 05, 2013 at 06:05 PM (#4611373)
As a Yankee fan, I just pray that Ellsbury stays healthy. If I were a Red Sox fan, I'd be thinking along these lines:

...Be heartened with the knowledge that the Red Sox are better off long-term. Jackie Bradley Jr. will give the team 75 percent of the production Ellsbury did at, literally, 2 percent of the price for the next three years. The Sox can take the money and better spend it elsewhere.


Ellsbury's motivations are irrelevant, and given the tradeoff between talent and money that obviously was what the Red Sox were considering, I think Red Sox fans should just wish him well (except against the Red Sox) and move on. Invest the money you save in the farm system and it'll wind up being a no-brainer.
   51. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 05, 2013 at 06:09 PM (#4611380)
#47, you're seriously expecting Boston sportswriters to act like adults?


No, but I can still hope. We're a town of letters and culture, how did we end up with such horrible sportswriters?
   52. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: December 05, 2013 at 06:25 PM (#4611411)
We're a town of letters and culture, how did we end up with such horrible sportswriters?

I blame it on affirmative action, old style. (smile)
   53. Bob Tufts Posted: December 05, 2013 at 06:44 PM (#4611439)
We're a town of letters and culture, how did we end up with such horrible sportswriters?

The horrible fans buy, watch and read the blogs the horrible sportswriters craft.

We were all spoiled by the quality and quantity of the Globe and Herald sports staffs of the 70's and 80's, Gowdy, Martin, Coleman.....
   54. jingoist Posted: December 05, 2013 at 07:05 PM (#4611463)
I wonder.....do the all-knowing posters at BTF sacrifice live animals at the oracle of Delphi (or some such temple) which then enables them to see what lies deep in the author's heart when he is creating said article?

I thought it was a rather straight-forward analysis of the past.

I know that many Red Sox fans cant believe that every player who comes through the front door doesn't immediately genuflect before the Green Monster and swear eternal allegiance to Red Sox nation, but the fact is, they don't.
Abraham summed it up nicely: thanks Jacoby for all you've done for us; good luck in the future; enjoy all that Yankee moolah.
   55. Dale Sams Posted: December 05, 2013 at 07:10 PM (#4611468)
thanks Jacoby for all you've done for us; good luck in the future; enjoy all that Yankee moolah. I mean SOME players would have taken a pay cut, and it's obvious you aren't like that. But good luck. It's not like you fell in love with the city like some guys. But yeah, enjoy all that Yankee moolah.


FTFY

   56. Nasty Nate Posted: December 05, 2013 at 07:25 PM (#4611477)
most people I'm talking to seem to feel, like we do here, that he did a good job in Boston and that he'd be a fool not to take that dumptruck filled with money. And most people also think Cherington should be shot had he offered that same contract to Ellsbury that he got from New York.


Likewise for me
   57. Hank G. Posted: December 05, 2013 at 07:43 PM (#4611487)
Every player has a right to determine his worth on the open market and Ellsbury took full advantage of that. Just because Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz showed loyalty to the organization that drafted them and signed extensions doesn't mean Ellsbury had to.


Every free man has a right to determine whether his loyalty shall be to the British Crown or to the new American country. Benedict Arnold took full advantage of that. Just because George Washington, Samuel Adams, and Nathan Hale risked their life and sacred honor in the fight against tyranny doesn’t mean that Arnold had to.
   58. Eric L Posted: December 05, 2013 at 08:21 PM (#4611517)
It would be an amazingly creative smear job, even by Boston media standards, to link Ellsbury to the September 2011 collapse, considering how well he played during that month.

This smear is almost as old as baseball stats are. Consider Gene Mauch: Other than leading the league in Home Runs and RBI's, what did he do to help us win?
   59. TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 05, 2013 at 09:06 PM (#4611546)
Scott Boras somehow got Ellsbury a contract befitting a No. 3 hitter and MVP candidate.
I dunno. I think in 3 years we'll look at this contract and say "$7M/win? Eh, so what?" (the length of the contract is what will still make this an eye-popper).

I count 18 hitters already under contract for $20M+ for '2016:
LAA HamiltonJosh $32.40
LAA Pujols
Albert $25.00
PHI Howard
Ryan $25.00
TEX Fielder
Prince $24.00
NYY Teixeira
Mark $23.13
MIN Mauer
Joe $23.00
TOR Reyes
Jose $22.00
LAD Gonzalez
Adrian $21.86
NYY Ellsbury
Jacoby $21.85
LAD Kemp
Matt $21.75
LAD Crawford
Carl $21.61
WAS Werth
Jayson $21.57
NYY Rodriguez
Alex $21.00
SFG Posey
Buster $20.78
MIL Braun
Ryan $20.00
CIN Votto
Joey $20.00
NYM Wright
David $20.00
COL Tulowitzki
Troy $20.00 


Despite how easy people have said it is, I still can't make a decently formatted table. You still get the idea.

EDIT: I think there are 2 things driving this, now and in the future. Now, I think teams see big revenue increases over the next few years from TV, internet, whatever. In the future, I think the lack of decent talent on the market will make that talent very expensive (of the 18 on this list, 8 never becames FAs; of 8 pitchers already signed for $20M+ in '16, 5 never became FAs). In other words, there are 26 such contracts now because they forsee big revenue increases; in 3 years, there will be many more because the cost of talent will be so dear.
   60. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: December 05, 2013 at 11:58 PM (#4611646)
Despite how easy people have said it is, I still can't make a decently formatted table. You still get the idea.

The first pass never works for me either. If you go back in and edit the spacing after posting it, it seems to stick though. No idea why...
   61. jobu Posted: December 06, 2013 at 04:36 AM (#4611705)
I count 18 hitters already under contract for $20M+ for '2016:

LAA Hamilton, Josh $32.40
LAA Pujols, Albert $25.00
PHI Howard, Ryan $25.00
TEX Fielder, Prince $24.00
NYY Teixeira, Mark $23.13
MIN Mauer, Joe $23.00
TOR Reyes, Jose $22.00
LAD Gonzalez, Adrian $21.86
NYY Ellsbury, Jacoby $21.85
LAD Kemp, Matt $21.75
LAD Crawford, Carl $21.61
WAS Werth, Jayson $21.57
NYY Rodriguez, Alex $21.00
SFG Posey, Buster $20.78
MIL Braun, Ryan $20.00
CIN Votto, Joey $20.00
NYM Wright, David $20.00
COL Tulowitzki, Troy $20.00


Wow, that's a pretty crappy set of contracts. Who is >50% likely to deliver value in the next year? Posey, Votto, Tulo. Who knows with Braun? Wright? Anyone else more likely than Ellsbury?
   62. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 06, 2013 at 08:42 AM (#4611721)
Prince Fielder is a pretty good bet to be worth $24 million next year. Check back in three years, though, and boy howdy is that going to be ugly.

Adrian Gonzalez was worth his money last year and a fair bet to be worth his money again this year.
   63. TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 06, 2013 at 10:14 AM (#4611747)
PASTE: I think he means in '17.

Here are the $20M+ hitters that year:

LAA Hamilton, Josh $32.40
LAA Pujols, Albert $26.00
TEX Fielder, Prince $24.00
MIN Mauer, Joe $23.00
LAD Gonzalez, Adrian $22.36
SFG Posey, Buster $22.18
TOR Reyes, Jose $22.00
CIN Votto, Joey $22.00
LAD Crawford, Carl $21.86
NYY Ellsbury, Jacoby $21.85
LAD Kemp, Matt $21.75
WAS Werth, Jayson $21.57
NYY Rodriguez, Alex $21.00
COL Gonzalez, Carlos $20.43
MIL Braun, Ryan $20.00
NYM Wright, David $20.00
COL Tulowitzki, Troy $20.00
   64. TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 06, 2013 at 12:44 PM (#4611986)
Prince Fielder is a pretty good bet to be worth $24 million next year....Adrian Gonzalez was worth his money last year and a fair bet to be worth his money again this year.
In 8 full seasons, Fielder's bWAR is:

Year WAR
2009 6.3
2012 4.9
2011 4.6
2007 3.6
2010 1.7
2013 1.7
2008 1.6
2006 -0.7

fWAR is a little more generous, but only a little:

Season WAR
2009 6
2011 4.9
2012 4.8
2007 4.6
2010 2.7
2013 2.2
2008 1.4
2006 1

Still, even if marginal wins exploded to $7M each, it's not "a pretty good bet" he'll be worth $24M next year; at $5.5M/win (which is probably still a bit high) I'd bet heavily against him.

As for Gonzalez, bWAR thought he was a 4 win player last year only because (1) they liked his defense a lot more than Fangraphs, and (2) their positional adjustment is less severe. But even then, he was barely "worth" $20M, and clearly wasn't in '12 by either measure of WAR. I'd say his odds of being a $20M player in '14 is better than Fielder's, but not a slam-dunk.
   65. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 06, 2013 at 12:49 PM (#4612007)
We're a town of letters and culture, how did we end up with such horrible sportswriters?


Its the town of Peter Gammons and Bob Ryan. What the hell happened?
   66. TDF, situational idiot Posted: December 06, 2013 at 01:32 PM (#4612187)
And now you can add Cano at $25M/yr to my lists.

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