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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Abriano: Gil Hodges and the Hall of Fame

Lordy! My heart hasn’t been yanked around like this since I found out Luornu Durgo and The Dees Triplets were not three and the same!

Most people like to point to Gil Hodges’ career average of .273 when trying to explain why he has yet to be elected to the Hall of Fame. They note that he never won an MVP award, and that he never led the league in home runs. Here’s another fact: At the time of Gil Hodges’ retirement after the 1963 season, there were 21 players in Major League Baseball history who had hit 300 home runs over the course of their career. Of those 21 players, all except Gil Hodges are in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. Of those 21 players, only Gil Hodges is viewed as one of, if not the best fielding first baseman in the history of the game. Of those 21 players, only Gil Hodges managed the Mets to the 1969 World Series title, guiding a team that had never before had a winning season to the most unfathomable Championship anyone has ever seen. Gil Hodges passed away prematurely in 1972, and the drum has been beating since then for him to be enshrined in the Hall. It hasn’t happened.

Now, I don’t want to turn the Hall of Fame into the Hall of Very Good. If I didn’t think Hodges was deserving, I wouldn’t be writing this piece. Ron Santo was recently elected, and I’d say Hodges is more deserving. Phil Rizzuto seems to be a stretch, yet he’s in. Bill Mazeroski had a .299 career On Base Percentage. .299! He hit 138 career homers compared to Hodges’ 370. Mazeroski is in because of his incredible defense at second base, and because of one (enormous) home run he hit to win the 1960 World Series. Mazeroski had his series winning homer, and Hodges drove in the only two runs in Game 7 of the 1955 World Series as the Dodgers won their only Championship in Brooklyn. Mazeroski was a 7 time All-Star, while Hodges was an 8 time All-Star. If the Hall of Fame rewarded Mazeroski because of his defense alone plus one shining moment, how can they not reward Hodges when his defense at first base was as incredible as Mazeroski’s was at second base? How can they not reward Hodges after taking into account his offensive statistics to go along with his defensive prowess? How is it humanly possible to take into account those two aforementioned things, add Hodges’ Managerial legacy to the picture, yet still keep the man out? It defies logic.

Repoz Posted: August 21, 2012 at 01:54 AM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, gristedes, history, hof

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   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:55 AM (#4213430)
Ron Santo was nearly worth 2 Gil Hodges.

Gil Hodges was a mediocre defender.

Classic article pointing to the worst HOFers like Maz, to help make a case that is otherwise built on exaggeration if not outright falsehood.

And you can't give Hodges credit for the Mets WS if you don't also dock him for not being a good enough player to win the Dodgers some championships.

Great guy, no doubt. HOFer? No doubt no.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:41 AM (#4213446)
Classic article pointing to the worst HOFers like Maz

I don't really have a problem with it here. Santo, Gordon, Maz, Cepeda, Ashburn, Rizzuto are the most recent VC selections of the kinda modern age (I think ... plus Negro Leaguers of course). It's perfectly appropriate to compare Hodges to the most recent inductions (and that list goes back nearly 20 years).

Gordon, Ashburn and Santo were a lot better than Hodges but:

Cepeda 46 WAR
Hodges 41 WAR
Rizzuto 38 WAR
Maz 32 WAR

and from that "kinda modern but a long time ago era", there aren't a lot of more deserving candidates on the position player side at least. Boyer and Hack might be it with Colavito and Stephens having Hodges-like cases. Really it's getting to the point where the HoF needs to shut down some of the VCs.

I don't think Hodges belongs but I don't think those guys belong either. So it's kinda similar to closers -- I don't think any of the closers deserved it really but they're in now and so I really wouldn't have a problem with Lee Smith going in.

It's hard for me to believe but Maz's selection was all the way back in 2001. I thought it was like 4-5 years ago.
   3. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 21, 2012 at 06:51 AM (#4213449)
With war credit, you can make a non-crazy case for Scooter. He lost three years of his peak to WWII, and I believe his poor 1946 has been attributed to illness or injury he picked up while serving.
   4. bobm Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:05 AM (#4213451)
Here’s another fact: At the time of Gil Hodges’ retirement after the 1963 season, there were 21 players in Major League Baseball history who had hit 300 home runs over the course of their career. Of those 21 players, all except Gil Hodges are in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York.


B-R PI: Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 1963, (requiring WAR_bat>=0), sorted by greatest Home Runs

                                                     
Rk           Player  HR WAR/pos From   To   Age    PA
1         Babe Ruth 714   159.2 1914 1935 19-40 10620
2       Jimmie Foxx 534    92.5 1925 1945 17-37  9676
3      Ted Williams 521   119.8 1939 1960 20-41  9788
4           Mel Ott 511   104.0 1926 1947 17-38 11348
5        Lou Gehrig 493   108.5 1923 1939 20-36  9663
6       Stan Musial 475   123.4 1941 1963 20-42 12717
7     Eddie Mathews 422    78.4 1952 1963 20-31  7799
8     Mickey Mantle 419    90.3 1951 1963 19-31  7412
9       Willie Mays 406    94.5 1951 1963 20-32  7337
10      Duke Snider 403    63.8 1947 1963 20-36  8048
11       Gil Hodges 370    40.7 1943 1963 19-39  8102
12      Ralph Kiner 369    46.2 1946 1955 23-32  6256
13     Joe DiMaggio 361    75.1 1936 1951 21-36  7673
14      Johnny Mize 359    67.8 1936 1953 23-40  7370
15       Yogi Berra 358    56.2 1946 1963 21-38  8350
16      Ernie Banks 353    54.4 1953 1963 22-32  6346
17       Hank Aaron 342    70.6 1954 1963 20-29  6582
18   Hank Greenberg 331    55.1 1930 1947 19-36  6097
19      Roy Sievers 310    23.8 1949 1963 22-36  7119
20       Al Simmons 307    64.3 1924 1944 22-42  9518
21   Rogers Hornsby 301   124.6 1915 1937 19-41  9481
22      Chuck Klein 300    41.5 1928 1944 23-39  7170
   5. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:49 AM (#4213467)
Really it's getting to the point where the HoF needs to shut down some of the VCs.


They did, for a while anyway. And wasn't the Mazeroski election what motivated Joe Morgan and his Super-friends to take over the VC and not elect anybody for the better part of a decade?
   6. DanG Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4213531)
Comparing Hodges to 1B debuting since 1986:

Rk            Player WAR/pos OPSRfield  HR  RBI  OBP  SLG    PA
1      Albert Pujols    87.3  168    129 473 1414 .415 .611  7953
2       Jeff Bagwell    76.8  149     56 449 1529 .408 .540  9431
3       Frank Thomas    69.8  156    
-67 521 1704 .419 .555 10075
4          Jim Thome    67.7  147    
-48 611 1695 .402 .555 10277
5    Rafael Palmeiro    66.2  132     49 569 1835 .371 .515 12046
6       Mark McGwire    58.7  163    
-29 583 1414 .394 .588  7660
7        Todd Helton    58.4  135     73 354 1345 .419 .545  9011
8        John Olerud    53.5  129    100 255 1230 .398 .465  9063
9         Will Clark    53.2  137      0 284 1205 .384 .497  8283
10     Lance Berkman    48.8  146    
-21 360 1200 .409 .545  7513
11      Fred McGriff    48.1  134    
-36 493 1550 .377 .509 10174
12      Jason Giambi    47.8  141    
-81 429 1405 .404 .523  8609
13     Mark Teixeira    45.4  131     89 337 1097 .370 .528  6516
14    Miguel Cabrera    43.4  151    
-54 308 1088 .395 .559  6309
15        Mark Grace    42.9  119     75 173 1146 .383 .442  9290
16    Carlos Delgado    40.5  138    
-63 473 1512 .383 .546  8657
17        Gil Hodges    40.7  120     48 370 1274 .359 .487  8102 
   7. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4213541)
If only Hodges had become a manager, and won a World Series or something.
   8. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:51 AM (#4213551)
At the time of Gil Hodges’ retirement after the 1963 season, there were 21 players in Major League Baseball history who had hit 300 home runs over the course of their career. Of those 21 players, all except Gil Hodges are in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown,


As bobm's chart shows, there were actually 22, with Roy Sievers also on the outside looking in. of the 20 HOFers, Chuck Klein was a mistake, and the other 19 were all better, if not way better than Hodges.

So, yeah, of the 22, he was better than the one non-HOFer, and one HOFer, and the other 19 were better. Big deal. Just because you are in a group, doesn't mean you share all the characteristics of the group.
   9. bjhanke Posted: August 21, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4213614)
#8, referencing #4, has it right. Hodges las the lowest WAR of anyone except Sievers, who is NOT in the Hall. That is, Hodges i's touted for being on a list that has him as the weakest member. That just doesn't sound like the Hall of Fame to me. #6 shows that the idea of Gil Hodges as a all-world class of defensive 1B gloves is also wrong. There are seven Rfields ahead of him, and two of them (Pujols and Olerud) are over TWICE what Hodges has. The main thing the list shows is the Albert Pujols has deserved the Gold Gloves he does have, and some that he doesn't. Sorry, this potato has already been twice baked, and doesn't need any more cooking. It's done. - Brock Hanke
   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 21, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4213626)
olerud was a hunter pence of his time. you could never figure out a guy that awkward looking be that effective. and olerud was better than pence. and not as goofy looking. but same vein
   11. Chris Fluit Posted: August 21, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4213674)

If the Hall of Fame rewarded Mazeroski because of his defense alone plus one shining moment, how can they not reward Hodges when his defense at first base was as incredible as Mazeroski’s was at second base?


Not that Maz is a great selection for the Hall of Fame but this statement is nowhere near true. Maz has +147 fielding runs and +23.8 defensive WAR, which is among the historical leaders for his position. Hodges has +48 fielding runs and -5.4 defensive WAR which are decent for his era but by no means among the best in history. By traditional markers, Hodges has 3 Gold Gloves compared to 8 for Maz. Maz is tied for 3rd all time behind HoFers Alomar and Sandberg. Hodges is tied for 11th with such luminaries as Derrek Lee, Rafael Palmeiro and Joe Pepitone. Hodges was the better player overall (40.7 WAR to 32.3) but no, Hodges is not Maz's equivalent as a fielder.
   12. DanG Posted: August 21, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4213701)
Hodges sims.

Corner-OF and 1B within 6 WAR, 7 OPS+, 800 PA, and 50 War fielding Runs since 1893:

Player            WAR/pos OPS+   PA Rfield From   To
Kiki Cuyler          44.4  125 8100     14 1921 1938 H
Bobby Veach          44.1  127 7572     30 1912 1925
Ed Konetchy          43.2  123 8663     50 1907 1921
Roy White            43.0  121 7735     34 1965 1979
Heinie Manush        41.5  121 8419     
-1 1923 1939 H
George Foster        41.3  126 7812     38 1969 1986
'Gil Hodges          40.7  120 8102     48 1943 1963'
Dixie Walker         40.6  121 7670     16 1931 1949
Don Mattingly        39.8  127 7722     34 1982 1995
Felipe Alou          39.2  113 7907     52 1958 1974
Ben Chapman          38.4  114 7424     50 1930 1946
George Burns         37.8  114 8251     70 1911 1925
Jake Daubert         36.8  117 8744     23 1910 1924
Harry Davis          35.5  119 7379     13 1895 1917
Johnny Callison      35.4  115 7437     47 1958 1973
Paul ONeill          35.2  120 8329      8 1985 2001 
   13. GregD Posted: August 21, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4213855)
I expected Ken Griffey Sr to be on that list but he misses making it by 2 WAR.
   14. DanG Posted: August 21, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4213913)
I expected Ken Griffey Sr to be on that list but he misses making it by 2 WAR.
...due to his -68 WAR Fielding Runs, which also disqualifies him from the comp list. And he misses the list by 3 WAR, having 31.6 where the requirement is 34.7.
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4213964)
If the Veterans Committee were to elect another player from Hodges era (WWII to expansion), I'm not sure they'd find a better candidate; there are certainly worse. To make the case, IMHO, you need to add his managerial career, and the HoF seems to be rather uneven on that. You can be a HoF player and/or a HoF manager, but it's not so clear that you can make it on total contribution in both capacities.
   16. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4213990)
You can be a HoF player and/or a HoF manager, but it's not so clear that you can make it on total contribution in both capacities.


Al Lopez
   17. DanG Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4214008)
If the Veterans Committee were to elect another player from Hodges era (WWII to expansion), I'm not sure they'd find a better candidate
Minnie Minoso says "WTF"?

Ken Boyer and Billy Pierce also have some words for you.
   18. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 21, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4214031)
Al Lopez


Lopez made it as a manager, his playing career was nowhere near good enough. Red Schoendienst is probably a better example; he peaked at 42.6% of the vote while he was on the ballot, he was officially elected as a player, and it's IMO unlikely that he'd have made it in without the managing career.

-- MWE

   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4214056)
If the Veterans Committee were to elect another player from Hodges era (WWII to expansion), I'm not sure they'd find a better candidate

Ken Boyer and Billy Pierce also have some words for you.

Boyer was mostly post-expansion, Pierce less so, but neither would merit much consideration without their post-expansion contributions, so they weren't intended to be in the mix with Hodges.
   20. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4214088)
but neither would merit much consideration without their post-expansion contributions

Really? Pierce had eight times as many WAR before 1961 as he did after and was never really one of the best pitchers in his league after 1958. I wouldn't think Pierce's post-expansion performance adds much of anything to his case.

In any event if you ended each of their careers in 1960, Pierce would still have a far better case than Hodges.
   21. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: August 21, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4214090)
Lopez made it as a manager, his playing career was nowhere near good enough.


I agree, but his managerial career wasn't that hot either. I don't think 1400 wins and 2 pennants would be good enough if he didn't have the hook of the all time leader (at the time) in games caught.

edit: But I agree, Schoendienst is a better example.
   22. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4214173)
I wouldn't think Pierce's post-expansion performance adds much of anything to his case.

Clearing 200 wins counts for something.
   23. Moeball Posted: August 21, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4214224)
Minnie Minoso says "WTF"?


Actually, Minnie could also say "¿Qué diablos?" or some such thing so he gets bonus points for being able to swear in multiple languages.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: August 21, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4214341)
Ahhhh ... I missed Minnie because I used "final year" as a criterion. Yes, he's got a better case.

Rizzuto's war credit is an interesting question. He had 9 WAR in 2 years before shipping out but just 9.5 WAR in his first 4 seasons back. If you gave him credit for 4+ WAR per missed season, he's at 50 WAR and quite viable. If you give him credit for 2.5 WAR per season, he's at 45-46 and looking more Hodges-esque.

Pesky is an interesting war credit case too (from a VC perspective). He had a 5 WAR season in 42 and 6 WAR season in 46. His WAR was much less reliant on Rfield than Rizzuto's, putting up 4.1 oWAR in 42, 5.4 in 46 and 4.1 again in 47. It's not a huge stretch to give him anywhere from 12-15 WAR for those missed years which moves him into the low-mid 40s.

But, yeah, of the 3, I can see ranking them Rizzuto, Hodges, Pesky.

As to the lists above, they're all well and good but you're comparing Hodges primarily to other guys voted in by the writers while nobody serious is ranking him there. Hodges gave it a good go but clearly did not meet the writers' standards and it's easy to make the non-HoF case by that standard. But it's easy to make a non-HoF case by that standard for the vast majority of VC selections (Negro Leaguers excluded). If you compare Hodges to other VC selections, he's probably better than a lot of the Frisch selections and not out of line with the lower-level selections of the last 20 years and not substantially worse than a few recent BBWAA selections (Puckett, Perez, Rice). Isn't that exactly the sort of player the VC is supposed to give serious consideration to? (Which they have been doing as far as I know.)

To the extent I have a point here, it's not to argue for Hodges for the HoF but to raise the issue that maybe we have inducted (nearly) everybody prior to 1960* (or thereabouts) who deserves to be inducted and they should just stop before this starts getting silly. But then I'm a small HoM guy.

* I know squat about pre-1900/1910 baseball, maybe there are some worthy candidates left. But then those guys already constitute a major chunk of the HoF (especially pitchers) so I'm not concerned.
   25. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: August 21, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4214455)
I see Hodges short on just his playing career but don't have a problem with him getting in as a Vet Comm pick if you use his 69 WS win to push him over the top. I'm surprised he never got voted in by the Vet Comm after coming so close inBBWAA voting. If he's ever getting in, I would prefer to see him get in while his widow is still alive. As far as the 1900/1910 guys Walt spoke of, the Vet Comm 1871-1946 Pre-Integration ballot will be interesting. Hopefully the Vet Comm elects someone like Deacon White. I like the rotating Vet Comm ballots, I just wish the Execs & Mgrs had their own ballot.
   26. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: August 21, 2012 at 11:54 PM (#4214456)
I've never understood why Billy Pierce got so little Vet Comm support. He wasn't even on the last Golden Era ballot
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: August 22, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4214469)
"I see Hodges short on just his playing career but don't have a problem with him getting in as a Vet Comm pick if you use his 69 WS win to push him over the top. I'm surprised he never got voted in by the Vet Comm after coming so close in BBWAA voting. If he's ever getting in, I would prefer to see him get in while his widow is still alive."

Yeah.
I have voted in all the HOM elections, and never looked twice at Hodges for that.
But he was a very good player, and the 1969 Mets were... amazing.
And it's kind of cool that Joan Hodges has lived in her apt for 60+ years, and the neighbors all know her.
So shoot me.

support him, no, but rage against, not so much....



   28. JE (Jason) Posted: August 22, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4214479)
Rizzuto's war credit is an interesting question. He had 9 WAR in 2 years before shipping out but just 9.5 WAR in his first 4 seasons back. If you gave him credit for 4+ WAR per missed season, he's at 50 WAR and quite viable. If you give him credit for 2.5 WAR per season, he's at 45-46 and looking more Hodges-esque.

I fail to understand the desire to give Phil Rizzuto credit for 4+ WAR during '43-45 without considering that, had he played those three years, perhaps the wear-and-tear would have forced him to hang up his cleats in '52 or '53 instead of '56? Similarly, maybe Bob Feller would have blown out his arm at some point had he pitched another 350 innings per season from '42-44?
   29. Walt Davis Posted: August 22, 2012 at 03:25 AM (#4214497)
I fail to understand the desire to give Phil Rizzuto credit for 4+ WAR during '43-45 without considering that, had he played those three years, perhaps the wear-and-tear would have forced him to hang up his cleats in '52 or '53 instead of '56? Similarly, maybe Bob Feller would have blown out his arm at some point had he pitched another 350 innings per season from '42-44?

Of course we'll never know but I'm guessing combat is even more taxing than baseball!! :-) I don't know if either saw any combat (or Pesky), maybe all they did was play baseball and make PR appearances but as many retired players show us, the latter is not conducive to staying in good baseball shape either.

Feller's the more interesting case given the heavy usage.
   30. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: August 22, 2012 at 04:49 AM (#4214503)
There's no evidence that position players who missed time for the war had longer careers - in fact, the opposite is true.
Rizzuto picked up malaria while serving and the disease ruined his 1946 season. Rizzuto is certainly a below average HoFer but he's well above Hodges.
   31. LargeBill Posted: August 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4214605)
I don't have a huge issue with Hodges going in as a composite career pick. However, I do take issue with arguments that say "Player X was a great fielder at 1B or LF so he should be considered equal to player W who was a great fielder at a much more difficult defensive position (SS, 2B & C). That is separate from the fact that opinions are not exactly unanimous that Hodges was a great fielder.
   32. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: August 22, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4214638)
Rizzuto's war credit is an interesting question. He had 9 WAR in 2 years before shipping out but just 9.5 WAR in his first 4 seasons back. If you gave him credit for 4+ WAR per missed season, he's at 50 WAR and quite viable. If you give him credit for 2.5 WAR per season, he's at 45-46 and looking more Hodges-esque.

Another thing worth considering is Rizzuto's fielding. I don't have my copy of Wizardry on hand (I'm at work), but if The Baseball Gauge numbers are correct, there's a fairly massive difference between how DRS and DRA see Rizzuto (which is what I remember from the book, I just don't remember the exact numbers). If you substitute the DRA numbers into their WAR calculation and split the difference (to account for the massive nature of some of those numbers), you get a player around 77 WAR, which is well in HoF territory [edit note: I have no idea if this is the appropriate thing to do. I'm not super familiar with The Baseball Gauge calculations, which are now the same as bWAR, but are set up differently. It seems like the logical bit to do, the way these things seem to be organized, though]. Rizzuto always had a great fielding reputation - at some level, it's how much you trust the specific stats and if I know Humphreys well enough, there will be a section of Wizardry where he (convincingly) will argue about the superiority of DRA in this specific case.

Not really saying much, just food for thought :)

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