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Thursday, February 08, 2018

Adalberto Mejia: High Floor or More? - Minnesota Twins - Articles - Homepage - Twins Daily

Adalberto Mejia under the sabermetric microscope.

Finally, it’s interesting to note exactly when Mejia got himself into his biggest messes on the mound. You might think that a pitcher struggling with control would walk more hitters with men on base, but these situations were actually where Mejia clamped down. His greatest struggles came in low leverage situations in which he had a BB/9 of 5.34, as opposed to 1.29 in high-leverage situations. To put this another way, Mejia had a BB/9 of 5.73 when the bases where empty, as opposed to just 2.67 with men on base.

Jim Furtado Posted: February 08, 2018 at 07:44 AM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: adalberto mejia, twins

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   1. aberg Posted: February 08, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5621899)
I'm not super optimistic about Mejia. He doesn't have a strikeout pitch, so in a lot of these situations where he gives up unnecessary walks, it's because he has long at-bats and can't put hitters away. Unless he develops a new pitch or finds a way to get more swings and misses with the stuff he has, it's hard for me to see how he gets to the next level. Maybe he can be a bit more effective back-end guy by trading a few of those BBs for balls in play, but it's not going to make him into a star.
   2. DL from MN Posted: February 08, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5621993)
He gets worse the second time through the lineup. I see a relief pitcher.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 08, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5622015)
Eh, if he can hang on for a couple more years, starting pitchers won't face the lineup a second time.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: February 08, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5622145)
With men on base -- or more specifically with men on and 1B open -- is when you want to walk guys. As long as they're the right guys. Glavine was the modern master -- some HRs but no walks with the bases empty; no HRs and some walks with men on. BB%, HR%

--- 6.2% 2.3%
1-- 5.7% 1.6%
12- 8.8% 1.7%
1-3 9.3% 1.4%
123 5.1% 0.5%
-2- 17.5% 1.4%
--3 19.5% 1.0%
-23 32.5% 0.9%

At -23, batters had a 488 OBP vs Glavine (323 PA).

But sure, it's a positive in its way for Mejia in that he's demonstrated he can pitch with control now you just have to convince him of the obvious that he doesn't want to walk 5 guys per 9 with the bases empty. Now, without those walks, what's his BABIP with men on?
   5. DL from MN Posted: February 08, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5622182)
I would understand if he was throwing a breaking ball he can't control without anyone on and going to the fastball / change with men on but the article seems to indicate he just nibbles too much with nobody on base.
   6. DL from MN Posted: February 08, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5622185)
First time through the order .262/.344/.417
Second time through the order .322/.393/.539
   7. jmurph Posted: February 08, 2018 at 04:47 PM (#5622213)
I would understand if he was throwing a breaking ball he can't control without anyone on and going to the fastball / change with men on but the article seems to indicate he just nibbles too much with nobody on base.

Ah, the Daisuke. Run, run very fast.

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