I will be very surprised if Aramis Ramirez signs a deal worth more than $16MM this winter.

Maybe I'm misreading the market or something, but I'm stunned. Unless he just really didn't want to play for the Cubs--or was willing to take less money for more guaranteed years--this seems like a bad move on Aramis's part.

I hadn't realized that the team owes the buyout if the rejects the option. Seems odd.

Rockies could use him. He'd put up some stats too, boy.

I will be very surprised if Aramis Ramirez signs a deal worth more than $16MM this winter.

Maybe I'm misreading the market or something, but I'm stunned. Unless he just really didn't want to play for the Cubs--or was willing to take less money for more guaranteed years--this seems like a bad move on Aramis's part.

Take a look at the free agent hitters available this year, and at 3B in particular. At 3B, it's basically Aramis Ramirez, and a bunch of "Oh ####, we're not going to get stuck with him, are we?" guys. Looking at all hitters, he's probably no worse than the fourth best option (Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Ramirez?).

He'll get paid. Some GM will find that he's missed on his preferred target, and will still be sitting there with cash to spend, and a roster spot to fill.

He won't get an AAV of 16MM, but he'll do better than 16MM in total.

The language was choppy in the excerpt, but everything I've read is that the Cubs do not owe the buyout now that Ramirez has declined the option.

I'd predict 3/40 for Aramis.

If 3/40 is doable, the Phillies should jump on that. Ramirez' bat replaces Howard's for however long he's out (Polanco can play 2B and Utley 1B) and when Howard's healthy Ramirez replaces Valdez as Polanco gets turned into the main backup MI.

Hell, if it is 3/40 then the Cubs should just go ahead and resign him.

I predict around 4/60

I'd predict 3/40 for Aramis.

I'm with McCoy, I take the over on years and AAV.

Will the Cubs get draft picks for this?

Will the Cubs get draft picks for this?

I recall reading that they will ge two picks if Ramirez signs elsewhere. That's why I think a new deal with the Cubs will be unlikely.

Thanks, Pops.

Aramis should land somewhere between 3yr/$40M and 4yr/$60M - perhaps 3yr/$15M per with a $15M fourth-year option/$5M buyout. He'd be a perfect fit in Philly at that price, both for his bat and (as #7 notes) the options freeing up Polanco from 3B would create.

If we've learned anything about Ruben Amaro Jr., he doesn't like to wait for the market to unfold, and he works quickly and quietly. I doubt we'll see both Ramirez and J-Roll in Philly - it's probably one or the other, since they have other big-money priorities (Hamels' extension, Madson or another closer) as well. I could see Amaro making an offer to J-Roll (maybe exactly the same offer proposed for Ramirez - 3/45 + an option), and if Rollins turns it down or wants to wait, making a serious offer to Ramirez right away.

MLBTR has Ramirez as a Type B.

He won't get an AAV of 16MM, but he'll do better than 16MM in total.

Exactly. The calculus is not what he'll make under this contract next year vs. what he'll make on a new contract next year. It's what he'll make on a new contract over the next four or five years if he declares now (after his best season in six years) vs. $16MM plus what he'd make after next year. He'll be 34. If he gets injured or declines a fair amount, he could cost himself a lot of money by exercising the option. This is the right move.

Aramis wound up being the team's best offensive player in both 2010 and 2011, but he was atrocious during the first two months in each season. In both cases, I thought the end had finally come for Aramis. He went on to have great offensive seasons, but his age, conditioning and injury history make a slow start now a lot scarier than other guys getting off to cold starts.

He's been one of the few stables pieces of the Cub franchise over the last eight plus seasons, so I'm sad to see him go. The Cubs probably won't contend in 2012, however, so letting him walk is probably for the best.

The Cubs probably won't contend in 2012, however, so letting him walk is probably for the best.

That's why I'm surprised they offered to pick up the $16MM.

This whole thing went the opposite of how I imagined. I couldn't understand why the Cubs accepted the $16MM option, and then I was just blown away when Aramis declined it.

Based on the comments so far, I am drastically understimating his value--I'd be amazed at anything over 2/$20MM. He's injury-prone, he doesn't walk, he plays lousy defense, and he's turning 34. There are red flags all over this one.

There are red flags all over this one.

There were red flags all over the Zito signing, and yet it happened. The same with the Soriano signing, and the Pierre signing, and the Matthews signing, and the Lackey signing, and the....

Not that it matters, but ARam wasn't close to being the Cubs' best hitter in 2010. The bounceback this year was a very welcome surprise especially after that start.

ARam would be a nice fit for the Red Sox if they don't resign Ortiz -- he and Youk can split 3B/DH (with some Gonzalaez). The Angels are another obvious destination ... really any AL team where you can hopefully keep him on the field a bit more by putting him at DH or 1B a good chunk of the time.

But, yeah, I wouldn't be too quick to give him more than 2 years but also agree somebody will happily give him at least 3.

Possible Free Agent 3B this offseasion:

Wilson Betemit DET
Casey Blake LAD *
Eric Chavez NYY
Mark DeRosa SF
Greg Dobbs PHI
Edwin Encarnacion TOR *
Wes Helms FLA
Melvin Mora ARI
Aramis Ramirez CHC
Miguel Tejada SF
Omar Vizquel CWS

These are Ramirez' competition for a contract.

By the way when nobody hit over 30 homers for the Cubs this year it marked the first time no Cub has hit thirty or more in a season for two consecutive seasons since 1986. A 25 year streak. From 1980 to 1986 no Cub hit over 26 homers in a year.

And Ramirez had the 3rd higheset wOBA among third basemen. Obviously he loses some points on defense and baserunning, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't get 3 years guaranteed. If he accepted the option, and the Cubs didn't really want him, they'd have no problem finding a taker for him at 1/16.

I think he ends up with the Angels or the Tigers, for something around 4/56.

I think he ends up with the Angels or the Tigers, for something around 4/56.

Wow! That would be a crazy overpay; not the AAV, but the length.

This guy has totaled 8.5 WAR in his age 30-33 seasons (4.5, 1.4, -1.0, 3.6). To pay for 12 WAR from ages 34-37 seems crazy.

Sarge Jr says hello and asks if you met Vernon Wells yet.

Fangraphs has him at ~11 WAR for 30-33.

I say 3/40.

The Brewers seem like a good fit. Third base for a year or two and then a move to 1B.

Unless he just really didn't want to play for the Cubs--or was willing to take less money for more guaranteed years--this seems like a bad move on Aramis's part.

He's the only 3B on the market worth talking about. The second best, without exaggeration, is probably Miguel Tejada. Aramis would be an idiot not to test the market.

What were the red flags on Lackey?

I ran this in The Lounge, but I might as well put it here, too.

3B since 1893 with a career OPS+ of 109-119 and 6300-7700 PA through their age 33 season:



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2011.

Glaus retired(?) due to injury. Williams played four more years, but at a pretty low level. Harrah played four more years, but only had one good season. Ventura played three more with one good season. Lansford had only one more year, really, due to an injury, where he was an average hitter. Bailey was subpar for two more years. Keltner was done at age 33. Kell had one more year, a solid semi-season. Parrish played one more year, a bad one. Traynor had three more and slipped steadily.

That's actually a pretty discouraging list of comps, fwiw.

I decided to run it again, with guys from 1620-2620 PA (500 each way of Aramis) from ages 30-33.



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/31/2011.

Boone lasted another three years in a part-time role and wasn't much. Madlock played three more years and was actually pretty solid, in the 108-110 range all three years. Different era and different kind of player, but Collins stuck around through age 38 and was productive on the field until that last year (though one was shortened, without looking it up I'm guessing injury). Muller had a pretty good age 34 season and then was below average and hurt at 35, then done. Santo fell off the cliff his age 34 season and was done. Rosen was actually done at 32, as the above shows. Baker was just around league-average as a hitter his age 35 and 36 seasons.

A slightly more optimistic list than the one prior, but none of these guys lasted that long. Four years for Ramirez seems like it would be a pretty tough bet.

Based on the comments so far, I am drastically understimating his value--I'd be amazed at anything over 2/$20MM.

Wow, that's a pretty harsh assessment for a guy who has put up the following OPS+ numbers since 2004:

138, 134, 126, 128, 126, 130, 95, 136

His 2011 numbers aren't BABIP-inflated, either - his .308 BABIP is solidly in line with recent years other than his injury-plagued 2010. Season-by-season BABIP since 2007:

.313, .303, .331, .245, .308

He's one of the most consistent hitters year-to-year in the game, so I wouldn't worry about his bat that much. It'll decline, but he'll still be well-above-average offensively among 3B for 2-3 more years.

The question is how much stock you put in the defensive metrics. Both B-R and FanGraphs show a pretty ugly defensive decline over the last few years, pretty much exclusively from loss of range. That's definitely a red flag, but one that a team with a strikeout-heavy pitching staff (especially one with a good defensive SS) could tolerate in exchange for his bat. The Phillies fit that description perfectly, and Ramirez would help them keep their window open for another 2 years or so. A 3-year deal would be a lot like Ibanez's - he'll be well worth it at the beginning and overpaid at the end. Alas, that's the nature of signing big-ticket free agents; if you don't overpay on the back end of the deal, you don't get 'em.

Here's a dumber-than-Marcel, regressed weighted average projection based on Fangraphs and CHONE WAR:

+11 Bat -3 Run +16 Rep +1 Pos -7 Def = +18 Runs, $8M

This suggests even 2/20 would be an overpay.

Obviously you have to account for context - the other 3B on the market suck - but still, I wouldn't want to get in on this. I could imagine a "throw out the bad data" case for Ramirez, in which you disregard 2010. Still, I wouldn't want to do that.

Based on the comments so far, I am drastically understimating his value--I'd be amazed at anything over 2/$20MM. He's injury-prone, he doesn't walk, he plays lousy defense, and he's turning 34. There are red flags all over this one.

There are, but that rarely stops GMs from overpaying for old ballplayers who can still hit for power. Even on this site they're regularly overrated. I'll bet he gets three years with a vesting option, say 3/45 plus the vest.