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Amen to that, Cowboy, though I might have added about six extra ######s.
The only question is whether or not Granderson really peaked at 26 (135 OPS+), or just had two correctable years of decline (123, 100). But for his salary it amounts to a "what can we lose?" flyer, since Kennedy hasn't shown much since 2007, Coke is erratic and undependable, and Jackson's power stats suggest that he took a time machine back to 1918.
Well, that K rate isn't all that much worse than Granderson's overall K rate.
And the Yankees should be able to put a great RHB directly behind Granderson, which should help. Not to mention a general boost that should come his way, hitting in that lineup and in Yankee Stadium.
(See, I can call him "Grandy" now, because he's on the Yankees. This is great!)
What, did you think that the Pavano era was going to last forever? Did you think that George was going to come back and replace Cashman? As always, brains + money generally rules the baseball world. It doesn't mean that it'll hit on all cylinders every year, but when it does.....
I was under the impression Scherzer signed an MLB contract that essentially covered what would have been his arb years.
It matters in determining when a player qualifies for free agency and arbitration -- 6 years for FA, 3 or close to it for arb, regardless of what contract he signed coming out of the draft. Scherzer's deal covers 2007-2010 at $4.3M with bonuses he'll presumably reach bringing it up to $6M. He'll then have one more year of pre-arb and three arb years. It's basically just a way to spread out a signing bonus over a few years for a guy close enough to the majors you think he'll stick in the bigs before his options run out.
Schlereth is a potential closer. He had some wildness last year, but also struck out like 12 guys per 9 innings; even w/ his hellacious control in the majors, his FIP was 4.02, as he was striking out 10 guys per 9, and gave up 1 homer in 18 innings. Consider him the Tigers' Daniel Bard now.
Austin Jackson is over-hyped, but he can still be a second-division starter in center, which has its value.
Agreed. In a trade without any impact prospects, the Tigers gave up 2 established, quality major leaguers, and only got a semi-established one back in Scherzer. And the D-backs basically gave up one (Scherzer) to get one (Jackson).
The Yankees, meanwhile, gave up two non-impact prospects and Phil Coke, yet got a quality major league CF with a great contract in return.
Would the trade have been more even if Arizona had sent Chris Young to Detroit, while the Yankees sent significant cash to Detroit to cover his salary? Not sure where Young stands in the D-backs future...
As for Granderson's LHP struggles - absolutely, the Yankees are perhaps the only team that could afford multi-millions on a short-side platoon mate... they've also got plenty of lefty thumpers in the lineup.
BUT - none of that changes the fact that Granderson's ineptitude against LHP is a pretty big flaw.
And hey - let's not forget what happened the last time the Yankees traded for a guy with extreme platoon splits... though - I guess the chances of Austin Melian turning into Jay Buhner are pretty remote.
I can see that but the Tigers saved a nice chunk of change and got a very good, young (and cheap) pitcher back. They could end up regretting the deal but I can see it working out for them also. Conversely, I'm not clear how this helps the D'Backs.
It doesn't sound made up; it just sounds like the name of an extra from "Judgment at Nuremberg."
That's like saying, "sure, Hendrix was great on the guitar, but the dude was s#@t on the trombone!"
In any discussion like this, \"#### the Yankees" is the only reasonable position.
In Curtis' defense, he didn't choose to go there or demand a trade or anything like that.
He's a Yankee now. There's no defense for that at all.
No, but it took a certain amount of planning and restraint to free up enough payroll to sign them all. And it took a certain amount of restraint not to go after the sort of geezers that they'd loaded up on before (Brown, Unit). With that kind of bankroll, "smart" is all that's required, not "genius."
For all his brains and two hundred million, Cashman still had zero hitting off the bench and only one trustworthy reliever.
Well, with a starting nine like they had last year, a great bench wasn't quite as necessary as it might be for other teams, especially with 4 starting switch-hitters. Wouldn't a team 122 OPS+ tend to confirm that?
And only one trustworthy reliever? Either you have insanely high standards, or you're extrapolating a couple of bad postseason outings by Hughes into the regular season. Hughes was an absolute stud as a setup man from the day he was taken out of the rotation.
You want a nice little stat? In games where the Yankees were tied after 7 innings, they were undefeated for the entire season. I can live with that kind of a bullpen.
If baseball actually played a reasonable postseason schedule instead of mangling it so it doesn't resemble regular season play at all, they would have gotten screwed having to pitch Gaudin in the rotation or broken down their starters pitching on short rest for three rounds.
Gaudin (125 ERA+ with the Yanks) wasn't nearly as bad as you think, and it's not as if the other three teams wouldn't have had to make adjustments, too.
And remember, kiddies---the Winter isn't over yet.
And relief pitchers are all lottery tickets at nearly any price. I can't really fault the Yankees for their roster construction, except perhaps for having too many DH types. I could see some value in a speed/defense bench. The lineup already has enough power.
Not really, as Hendrix wasn't expected to play 1/3 of his set on brass.
Heh, I was wondering the same thing.
As a Tigers fan, I am, of course, disappointed to see Granderson and Jackson go. But this seems to be a case of "selling high". In a year, Granderson won't be so cheap and will his BA continue to decline? Will his walk rate continue to decline? Conversely, Jackson has improved the past couple of years. Will it continue? Will he pitch like he did in the first half of 2009 (2.52 ERA) or the second half (5.07)?
This should prove fruitful.
I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
A few thoughts:
1) Scherzer/Schlereth > Jackson/Kennedy...
2)...unless Scherzer's arm is going to fall off, since it's been rumored to do that for quite a while.
3) Yanks made out well, but it isn't some huge steal methinks.
4) Tigers did very well unless the arm-falling-off thing.
5) Get the #### out, Selig, and take your revenue-sharing with you.
You might find it somewhat less than fulfilling. It's nothing but \"#### the Yankees" repeated for 64 pages.
Marte, amybe sign Mike Gonzalez too.
Oh yes, in 42 wonderful innings in which he walked 4.3 per 9. You have got to be kidding if you're seriously arguing that Gaudin wouldn't have been the worst pitcher to start a world series game ever.
The Tigers played him everyday in spite of that. Give Curtis a platoon partner, and we could be looking at a .375/.500 if he's only facing RHP.
I would actually find that quite enjoyable right now. Do you sell short-term subscriptions?
As a Tigers fan, yes they sold high on both. OPS decline for Granderson from .913 to .780 since age 26 season, decline in SB rate since age 26 season, decline in walk rate. He's still young enough to be "young," but he's not as good as he was when he was younger. Big home/road, left/right splits. Probably a fluke, but in the last 2-3 weeks last year, he had several strange episodes of hideously misjudging simple fly balls, even at home. By the last week, you were scared every time the ball was hit to him.
Jackson's first half of 2009 was a clear outlier. The second half looks like a textbook case of reversion to mean.
They're two guys with enough there to rate as good-to-excellent. Imaginations can still run wild enough to think Jackson may someday border on elite. But the con argument for both is every bit as strong as the pro. Another 2009 for Granderson in 2010 and his value slides. A second half 2009 or pre-2009 for Jackson in 2010 and his value plummets.
These winter meetings strike me as a great time to trade them.
It's either this one or the 2-yr, $6M deal the Nats just gave Pudge.
EDIT: $6M, not $3M.
It seems Granderson and Jackson still have the All-Star shine on them and I am dubious they can either revert back to 2007 or 1st half 2009 form.
I don't think Kennedy is going to end up being nothing, but I have little to support that assertion.
It would be stupid to sell Ian Kennedy as a top prospect because of his unexceptional raw stuff and major league struggles. But there's good solid potential there, and he could be a better-than-average starter for several years if he can translate it to the majors.
How's the Diamondback OF defense? Kennedy is a FB pitcher, which may hurt him in that ballpark (IIRC), so hopefully the OF defense is able to compensate for that some.
I would guess the Tigers see Scherzer as an upgrade over a E. Jackson. Certainly a year ago we would have been looking for crack in the D'Backs front office if they swapped Scherzer for Jackson. Scherzer is younger and has a history of success. Jackson is older, more expensive, has more innings an his arm, and has a history of failing to live up to his potential. He pitched like an ace for three months and then pitched like.... well, like Edwin Jackson. A lot of smart people thought the Tigers were crazy to trade Matt Joyce for Jackson. So is Scherzer somehow worse after a decent year in a ML rotation?
The Yanks are in win now mode and they get a good player without giving up Hughes or Chamberlain. A no brainer.
The Tigers get two big upside players, two lefties for the pen, and clear 10+ mil off the books. (Yankees fans, that is a lot for some teams). A no brainer.
The D'Backs? I still think they are smoking crack. Afraid of the injury risk? See Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields. (Not to suggest Scherzer is that good, but you get the idea)Scherzer is no more vulnerable to injury than Lincecum. Or Verlander for that matter. Or Edwin Jackson. Jackson "might" give them more for 2010 than Scherzer. And Kennedy "might" be good.
Having seen him "pitch" for the Yankees I had a hard time believing Kennedy's minor league stat lines when I first saw them: 249 IP, 273/77 k/bb, 1.95 ERA.
What's he going to do? No idea honestly, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he tosses out a few 180+ IP 120ish ERA+ seasons
Well, I didn't mean LITTLE, in fact, as I re-read that it sounds like a knock on Kennedy - just the opposite. I basically think all this whining about how little the Yankees gave up to get something awesome is kind of wrong.
Although, I understand - here was my comment to a Yankee friend on IM: "Oh jesus, you guys got smart, nice guy Granderson for your stepford ballplayer soulsucker machine."
So, I get it.
I've had grave doubts about Jackson's utility for a while.
I'm not sure why you'd say that. the Yankees lost Damon and Matsui, two key offensive contributors. I see Granderson more as a savvy and economical move than a ZOMG YANKZ WILL DOMINATE move.
*this was a joke
The Tigers get two lefties for the pen, neither of whom may be better than Bobby Seay or Fu-Te Ni right now, although Schlereth may be better later.
The Tigers have a large question mark on the lineup card next to the letters "CF", in a spacious outfield where the names next to "LF" and "RF" will often be Guillen and Ordonez.
The Tigers have no obvious candidates to bat in the 1st 2 positions in their batting order.
The Tigers are clearly hoping to finish fourth in the AL Central for the foreseeable future.
I said, "Granderson is over 30 and over $10 mil after 2010. Move him a year early."
So thanks for proving my point.
"Denard Span never struck out nearly as much as Austin Jackson."
Ok, so who does Jackson compare to? He hit .300 in AAA at 22, he takes an occasional walk, he can run and play CF, he K's too much and his power has gone south. At 22 he's still likely to improve. He could be plenty useful.
Every trade is a gamble. I can't say this is a bad gamble for the Tigers.
you mean the guy who gave up 4 singles, 1 walks and no runs over 8 innings and shouldn't have been pulled at all?
he outpitched roy oswalt, roger clemens and andy pettitte.
For the CBT, the Yankees will only be assessed an annual $6MM figure for Gransderson (the contracts AAV) even though the actual out-of-pocket cost will average $8.6MM over the next three seasons. If the team picks up the $2013 option, the CBT assessment will match the actual salary for that year.
It's b/c they aren't done yet. They are being savvy for a reason....
I'd have to say the version of Lefty Williams who pitched in 1919 was worse.
You might find it somewhat less than fulfilling. It's nothing but "#### the Yankees" repeated for 64 pages.
Sounds like the Republican National Committee's newsletter, only that one's 6400 pages, with "government" substituted for "Yankees" in every sentence.
-------------------
It would be stupid to sell Ian Kennedy as a top prospect because of his unexceptional raw stuff and major league struggles. But there's good solid potential there, and he could be a better-than-average starter for several years if he can translate it to the majors.
I agree with that, Larry. Kennedy was always on a short leash with the Yanks after his injury, and if the Diamondbacks show some patience he could possibly be the best player in the whole deal. I know that I'm rooting for him to be that.
As for keeping him in after 7, it pains me to say it but I'm with Garner. There were better pitchers available and no particular reason to think that whatever magic Backe had on the day would continue.
Didn't work out.
What's the AAA record for team Ks? Adding Jackson to Hessman, Dlugach, Clevlen, and Ramirez might have Toledo making a run at it...
i just misunderstood what you meant when you said Granderson is over 30, which, in the context of your sentence, I now understand.
Me too. But in this FA market it's a little hard for them to top the ZOMG moves from last offseason.
You're forgetting that this guarantees that the Yankees will sign Holliday.
Poor bastard. Who did he piss off?
Jackson will play CF and get a shot at leadoff. He may not do much this year, but he won't be the worst CF in the league. And he won't strike out much (if any) more than Granderson.
Rayburn and Thomas will both play more in the OF than Guillen or Ordonez. Sizemore will play 2B and hit second. These solutions may not work very well in 2010 but when you have all that money sunk into Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Guillen, etc, you have to punt somewhere. (unless you are in NY).
They will likely be 4th this year. They are giving up a lot of power, but they are getting back 3 pitchers for one. They get $60 million off the books after 2010. Think about that. And they will still have Cabrera, Verlander, Porcello and Scherzer. And a bunch of power arms in the pen. Expect them to move some more guys.
A $140 mil payroll in Detroit was not sustainable. They drew 635,000 less fans this year. They had to win in 2008 or 2009. It didn't happen. Reload. I'm optimistic.
god. who, apparently, is a Yankees fan.
The Tigers haven't finished in first place since 1987, back when I was a junior in high school. I see no reason why they'd want to start becoming a good team now.
You just realized this!?
There goes my attempt to find the positive. Darn Mets!
Ok, so who does Jackson compare to? He hit .300 in AAA at 22, he takes an occasional walk, he can run and play CF, he K's too much and his power has gone south. At 22 he's still likely to improve. He could be plenty useful.
AJackson, 22, 2009 SWB: 123K/40BB
DBrown, 22, 2000 OMA: 112K/37BB
Hmm, maybe not a good comp. Brown slugged .491, Jackson slugged .405. 405! I have grave doubts that someone who strikes out once a game and can only slug 405 is gonna make it.
I don't have a database to find a comp. Szymborski will have one.
JacksonAustin CF TerreroLuis RepkoJason MoranJavon
His translated line from last year is in the .260/.310/.340 vicinity. He Ked as much at AAA as Granderson did in MLB. Useful, maybe, but I'd be surprised if he's ever a starter on a good team.
Devon White had the reputation of being a stupendous defensive CF. I haven't read anything about Austin Jackson's defense that makes him out to be more than average-to-good. Also, White had some power. I'd be pretty surprised if Jackson hits more than 200 ML home runs...
He certainly seemed that way to the naked eye. And he was breathtakingly fast. Just watching him run was a joy.
Worst Pirate WS starters (IMO), in decreasing order of marginal-ness:
Jim Rooker, 1979. Fifth/sixth starter, 36 years old (and one year from retirement), 17 starts, 85 ERA+, 1.13 K/BB. Allowed one run in 5 IP, left down 1-0, won 7-1.
Bob Moose, 1971. Fifth/sixth starter, 18 starts, 84 ERA+, 4.4 K/9. Allowed one run in 5 IP, left leading 2-1, lost 3-2.
Brickyard Kennedy, 1903. Fourth/fifth starter in a time of shallow rotations, 15 starts, 94 ERA+, 39/57 K/BB. Forced into a more prominent role after Ed Doheny lost his mind and got committed to an asylum. Allowed ten runs (four earned) in 7 IP, left down 10-0, lost 11-2.
Boy, that's terrifying.
The reputation is generally backed up by the stats. In his years with the Angels and the Jays, the B-R total zone stats show him as a consistent +15 CF.
Ahh, yes, this thread wouldn't have been complete with you stopping by to run your mouth. Enjoy the Alex Rios Era.
Not just any comp - the best-case scenario. Moran got cut by the Phillies without ever making the majors, and Terrero (who spent last season as a bench player for the Northern League's Kansas City T-Bones) put up a .234/.319/.356 line in 551 ML AB.
Curtis Granderson was easily my favourite player, my favourite since Trammell, and seeing him dealt with a lot left to give, and dealt to the Yankees at that, is brutal. Enjoy him, Yankees fans, he's a truckload of fun to watch (although I agree with SB's observation about his bizarre yips in CF at season's end).
As for Edwin Jackson, it really seems like this is selling high at its finest. He was a mess after the ASB, which is to say he was Edwin Jackson. Basically turning Matt Joyce into a great four months from EJ and now Max Scherzer is a steal for Dombrowski.
I don't really rate Austin Jackson, but besides that the Tigers got some pretty good pieces here. Scherzer, especially considering contract and control, is a great addition. The interesting question is what the hell happens next. The team is in a winnable position still, IF it gets another bat or two. Unfortunately all signs point to not trying in 10, but that really doesn't jibe with what we know of Illitch and DD.
That's just for next season, right?
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