How did you find the comps for Austin Jackson?

The Tigers are clearly hoping to finish fourth in the AL Central for the foreseeable future.

As Tripon noted upthread, they now have a front 3 of Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer. That's as good as anyone's - Giants included.

That doesn't make this necessarily a good deal, but this is hardly the same as the teardowns Dombrowski presided over in Florida.

How did you find the comps for Austin Jackson?

Yankees 2010 ZIPS projections.

As Tripon noted upthread, they now have a front 3 of Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer. That's as good as anyone's - Giants included.

Now they just need someone to hit the ball (not named Miguel Cabrera).

JacksonAustin CF TerreroLuis RepkoJason MoranJavon

That's just cruel. In terms of comps who have been somewhat successful, AJax reminds me a lot of Randy Winn: good but not great speed, not much power in the minors but potential for some later, high K totals given the lack of power, pretty good batting average, a decent BB rate, and likely solid centerfield defense or a very good defensive corner outfielder. It took Randy Winn a few years to figure things out before settling in as a 10-15 HR guy with a 100-110 OPS+. His first 3 seasons maxed out at an 83 OPS+, splitting time between the (Devil) Rays and the Durham Bulls. I suspect that Jackson's first couple years in the majors will be similarly difficult. The question will be if he can adjust like Winn, and if so, how quickly.

He Ked as much at AAA as Granderson did in MLB. Useful, maybe, but I'd be surprised if he's ever a starter on a good team.

Do you know how much Granderson K'ed in AAA? At age 24?

I take it those are rhetorical questions.

The difference of course, is that Granderson slugged .515 at Toledo, and at Erie the year before.

The Tigers rotation is now Verlander, Porcello, and Mad Max for the next 3 or 4 years. They will be fine.

Add in 5 * (per BP) propects Casey Crosby and Justin Turner and we'll be Grrrrrreat!

I think the Yankees and Tigers made out well in this deal. The Tigers got some financial flexibility and the Yankees got a good player for next season.

Basically TimD has said it all already.

Ouch, that's what I get for writing in piecemeal. That should read finesse pitcher (and does, now).

Robothal:

The D-backs, though, have their reasons for making the deal.

First and foremost, they view Scherzer as a reliever, not a starter; Scherzer's mechanics remain a concern for many scouts.

Schlereth already is a reliever, so the Diamondbacks — in their view — are effectively trading two relievers for two starters.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10491164

I wonder what CBW thinks about Scherzer.

The Tigers haven't finished in first place since 1987, back when I was a junior in high school. I see no reason why they'd want to start becoming a good team now.

This is really hard to believe, especially when you consider that they lost the division twice to Minnesota in the past few years either on the last day of the season or in a one game playoff. Two seasons with a magic number of 1 and no division title.

Apparently Arizona liked Yusmeiro Petit so much they decided to get another one in Ian Kennedy.

Iirc Kennedy's minor league numbers look rather like Dwight Gooden's. Could it be that Arizona is projecting him unrealistically as a result of that?

Apparently Arizona liked Yusmeiro Petit so much they decided to get another one in Ian Kennedy.

Career Minor League
Player HR/9 SO/9 K/BB
Petit 1.0 7.5 2.6
Kennedy 0.4 9.9 3.7

Uh, okay...

I[an] Kennedy's minor league numbers look rather like Dwight Gooden's. Could it be that Arizona is projecting him unrealistically as a result of that?

Like Grunderson with the Yanks, my take is that the D-Backs remember the sort of game that Kennedy brought a few years ago in the Majors (before his injury), and are taking a flyer that he can recover it for them. I'd say that the odds on Kennedy and Grunderson coming through with their 2007 form is roughly equal.

Any other free agent option, even Bay or Damon, will cost you in defense what you gain in offense.

Bay isn't that bad defensively, is he? Or do you mean the difference between he and Cabrera? I guess it depends on whether he's the offensive player he was in '05, '06, and '09 or the offensive player he was in '07 and '08.

with a a career OPS+ of 113

The trend in his OPS+ is troubling though.

I wonder what CBW thinks about Scherzer.

You can read what he thought back in 2006, long before signing with the Dbacks:

#11 - Arizona Diamondbacks - P Maxwell Scherzer

I keep watching his video, but just don’t see it befitting a #11 overall pick. The positives: He gets out front to a firm front side. His mechanics are smooth and polished and repeatable. Pretty good arm action. Negatives: Doesn’t go after it. Looks like he starts his torso rotation early. Kinda “pushes” the ball a bit. Risky pick in my opinion. Another guy that I doubt will keep his velocity. No thanks, not at 11.

Grade: C

Scherzer remains unsigned.

And this is what he wrote about Ian Kennedy

#21 - New York Yankees - P Ian Kennedy

Another guy with outstanding arm action. Throws to a firm front side, which again helps ward off shoulder troubles. A guy in the Prior/Reyes mold although he has better tempo than Prior. A good pick here. He looks very polished. If he throws an easy 88-92, I can live with him not going “after it” as much I’d like.

Grade: B

Kennedy signed with the Yankees last Friday for $2.25 million.

Apparently Arizona liked Yusmeiro Petit so much they decided to get another one in Ian Kennedy.

Petit was never as good in the minors as Kennedy has been. And Petit could never throw as hard as Kennedy. But it is a bit ironic that the offseason the Dbacks give up on Petit, a one time jewel in the Mets system and a Mets fan favorite, is the offseason they pick up Kennedy, a one time jewel in the Yankees system and a Yankees fan favorite. Life imitates btf.

A couple of nice posts from Dbacks beat writers:

Nick Piecoro: A long, hard look at the Big Deal

It might be worth reserving judgment on this trade to see how Kennedy looks outside of New York, in an easier division, easier league, and with a bigger sample size, a better opportunity to succeed.

But there’s no denying the consensus that Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes is going out on a huge limb. After an ugly 2009 season and an unpopular managerial hire, public opinion isn’t in his corner to begin with.

With a contract that runs through 2015 and a small ownership stake in the team, it would be hard to say Byrnes doesn’t have job security. But when trades go bad -- particularly those that arouse skepticism even before they are finalized -- that sort of thing can change in a hurry.

When you consider the years of control being lost in the Scherzer/Jackson swap, it seems to run counter to most deals Byrnes has made in the past. It makes you wonder if there isn’t pressure from within for a win-now approach, whether there isn’t more concern about ticket sales and TV ratings in 2010 rather than roster composition for 2012.

Steve Gilbert: Analyzing the Jackson deal

If Kennedy pans out like the D-backs think he will and Jackson gives them two good years before becoming a free agent then this will wind up being a good deal for the D-backs. Is there risk involved in giving up someone with Scherzer's ability? Absolutely and the D-backs are well aware of that. In their eyes this trade gives them a two-for-one in terms of pitchers and allows them to spend money they were going to have to spend on a fourth starter instead on improving the bullpen and the offense.
In the end you have to trust your scouts and if the D-backs feel as strongly as they do about Kennedy they have to follow that.

Tyler Kepner catches up with Ian Kennedy:

Reached at his home in Nevada on Tuesday, Kennedy said he had refined his two-seam fastball in the Arizona Fall League and believed that pitch would make a major difference for him this season.

“Before, I couldn’t command my two-seamer; it was always tailing off the plate and no one would swing at it,” Kennedy said. “It would be really cool to do that famous Greg Maddux thing and start it at a left-hander’s front hip. I’d love to learn that. Right now, it’s something to get guys to swing at and put the ball in play and save pitches.”

Kennedy, who missed most of last season because of an arm aneurysm, was the Yankees’ first-round draft pick in 2006 and appeared in 14 games over the next three seasons, going 1-4 with a 6.03 earned run average.

“The Yankees have treated me great since I was drafted,” Kennedy said. “If this happens, there’s no bad taste in my mouth or any lack of opportunity at all. I made it in one year; I’d say that’s a pretty good opportunity to have my shot.”

“It would be really cool to do that famous Greg Maddux thing and start it at a left-hander’s front hip. I’d love to learn that.”

This quote has been construed by some Yankee fans as Kennedy claiming to be the next Greg Maddux. Maybe getting out of New York will do the kid some good.

First and foremost, they view Scherzer as a reliever, not a starter

Apparently I'm not the only one :)

-- MWE