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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

ajc: Hot-hitting Gonzalez moved past Infante in NL batting race

And Chippy Jones chimes in…

“I’m really happy for him,” Infante said of Gonzalez, with teammate J.C. Boscan translating. “He’s a great hitter and he’s having a great season.”

Gonzalez, who was hitting .593 (16-for-27) in September, in the midst of a 10-game home stand too. Just thinking about the damage he can do in the hitter-friendly Coors Field brings up raw memories for Chipper Jones. Jones lost the 2007 NL batting title to Matt Holliday when he was with the Rockies. Jones hit .337; Holliday hit .340.

“If (Gonzalez) is doing the same thing on the road that he’s doing at home, I’d be glad to give him credit,” said Jones, who went on to win the batting title in 2008 by hitting .364. “And he’s a tremendous player, don’t get me wrong, but the numbers? He’s hitting like .390 at home with 25 homers and 65 ribbies?”

Close. Through Monday, Gonzalez was hitting .395 with 24 home runs and 63 RBIs at home and .288 with seven home runs and 34 RBIs on the road. Infante by comparison, is hitting .379 at home with 1 homer and 17 RBIs and .311 on the road with six homers and 22 RBIs.

Repoz Posted: September 07, 2010 at 10:43 PM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, rockies, sabermetrics

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   1. Benji Gil Gamesh is not being paid to be that guy Posted: September 07, 2010 at 11:25 PM (#3635530)
This could be shaping up as a really fun 3-way triple-crown race if Pujols hadn't hit .167 over his past 12 G.

Well, and if Infante would go away too.
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2010 at 12:01 AM (#3635562)
In 2008, Chipper hit .399 at home and .325 on the road. If he had been doing the same thing on the road that he was doing at home, I'd be glad to give him credit for that batting title.
   3. shoewizard Posted: September 08, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3635567)
I wonder if Chipper knows he just advocated for some type of new fangled ballpark adjusted stat.....like say OPS+ ??
   4. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3635622)
Gonzalez just sliced a 3-run homer over the left field fence.
   5. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3635623)
The homer Gonzalez just hit was peculiar. A homer that one might have expected to see in pre-humidor days. He basically fouled the ball off the other way, but it stayed fair and went over the fence. I feel like accusing somebody of something, but I don't know what. It was just strange to me.
   6. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:15 AM (#3635631)
Careful Justin, Tom will put a hex on you.......................
   7. Sweatpants Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:22 AM (#3635640)
The homer Gonzalez just hit was peculiar. A homer that one might have expected to see in pre-humidor days. He basically fouled the ball off the other way, but it stayed fair and went over the fence. I feel like accusing somebody of something, but I don't know what. It was just strange to me.
You're a tremendous poster, Justin T, but this post? If you could post like this from work or from Starbucks instead of only from home, I'd be glad to give you credit for it.
   8. sunnyday2 Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:28 AM (#3635646)
I think they'll split 3 ways. Gonzalez batting, Pujols HR and Votto RBI.
   9. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:32 AM (#3635652)
Gonzalez just moved into the lead in RBIs.
   10. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:44 AM (#3635662)
I love that Carlos Gonzalez is far and away the Rockies best hitter, has played the most games for the Rockies, and has the most PA of any Rockie player and yet on BRef his name is listed in the bench section.
   11. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:47 AM (#3635663)
It shows you how strong this team is when Carlos Gonzalez can't crack the starting lineup.
   12. Sam Hutcheson is the Rickey Henderson of... Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:49 AM (#3635664)
Chipper is a lot smarter than you might think.
   13. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:51 AM (#3635666)
You're a tremendous poster, Justin T, but this post? If you could post like this from work or from Starbucks instead of only from home, I'd be glad to give you credit for it.

I don't get it.

But I'm pretty slow sometimes. I literally just figured out ten minutes ago why "If I told you you had a nice body would you hold it against me?" is considered a cheesy pickup line. I always just kind of went with it when it would come up for whatever reason. But I didn't make the connection that we'd like the body held against us.

Sometimes I wonder about me.
   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:51 AM (#3635667)
sunny:

Brandon Phillips has been awful the past few weeks and Votto has been the guy scoring runs versus driving them in.
   15. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:54 AM (#3635668)
three nuns walk into a bar, the fourth one ducks.
   16. My Grate Friend, Peason's pants are rankled Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:54 AM (#3635669)
Very nice.
   17. Sweatpants Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:58 AM (#3635672)
I don't get it.
I discounted you for the same reason that Carlos Gonzalez is being discounted.
Sometimes I wonder about me.
I think the problem was that it just wasn't a very funny joke.
   18. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3635674)
Chipper Jones needs to get his head out of a spreadsheet and watch a game sometime.
   19. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:03 AM (#3635675)
I think the problem was that it just wasn't a very funny joke.

Still perfectly gettable.
   20. John DiFool2 Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:04 AM (#3635677)
Wait, Beane let this guy get away? Guess he didn't like the walk rate (he was part of the Halladay deal)... And AZ originally drafted him.
   21. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:08 AM (#3635679)
In the AL and at the Coliseum? He'd probably be hitting .275/.300/.420 right now.
   22. Don Malcolm Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:16 AM (#3635681)
Hey, if Carlos wins the TC and doesn't also lead in WAR, we're gonna have to put an asterisk on all this.

[ducking along with the fourth nun...]
   23. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:27 AM (#3635684)
In the AL and at the Coliseum? He'd probably be hitting .275/.300/.420 right now.

Robinson Cano numbers.
   24. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:43 AM (#3635688)
More to the point, with Oakland's coaching staff, he'd struggle to break .700 OPS. Like, you know, he did before going to Colorado.
   25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:44 AM (#3635689)
three nuns walk into a bar, the fourth one ducks.


How do you walk into ducks? They aren't exactly inconspicuous.
   26. Greg (U)K Posted: September 08, 2010 at 02:57 AM (#3635693)
How do you walk into ducks? They aren't exactly inconspicuous.

And bars are?
Clearly these are some hammered nuns.
   27. Greg (U)K Posted: September 08, 2010 at 03:00 AM (#3635697)
Speaking of which, the other day a friend and I were trying to create a lexicon of foreign cars to describe how drunk you are.

From "I am so Subarued" to "That dude is totally Isuzued"
   28. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: September 08, 2010 at 03:01 AM (#3635698)
What range.
   29. Srul Itza Posted: September 08, 2010 at 03:20 AM (#3635703)
Chipper is a lot smarter than you might think.


He'd pretty much have to be.
   30. Mike A Posted: September 08, 2010 at 03:46 AM (#3635716)
While he may not be Einstein elsewhere, Chipper pretty much knows the game of baseball inside and out. I suspect he'd make a good coach someday.

And all I can say about Colorado is Vinny Castilla came fairly close to a Triple Crown playing there. Vinny Castilla! The Sucking Vortex of Doom!
   31. CFBF Hates Hyphens Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:14 AM (#3635725)

And all I can say about Colorado is Vinny Castilla came fairly close to a Triple Crown playing there. Vinny Castilla! The Sucking Vortex of Doom!


I take some pride in first giving Vinny that nickname on FanHome back in aught two. Granted, I just stole it from Prospectus (who attached it to BJ Surhoff, I think), but still.
   32. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:15 AM (#3635726)
Speaking of which, the other day a friend and I were trying to create a lexicon of foreign cars to describe how drunk you are.

From "I am so Subarued" to "That dude is totally Isuzued"


A couple of years back while my buddies and I were drinking we created a game where we tried to include the phrase bro into as many words as possible. So instead of Poughkeepsie it would be Brokeepsie. We thought it was hilarious at the time. Of course we were very drunk at the time as well.
   33. Perros Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:16 AM (#3635727)
Carlos Gonzalez is having a pretty good season for a 24-year-old centerfielder.
   34. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:16 AM (#3635728)
I take some pride in first giving Vinny that nickname on FanHome back in aught two. Granted, I just stole it from Prospectus (who attached it to BJ Surhoff, I think), but still.

No, I originally came up with it for my ex-wife's vagina. Thank you, I'll be here all night.
   35. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:17 AM (#3635729)
Carlos Gonzalez is having a pretty good season for a 24-year-old centerfielder.

And a 24 year old left fielder, a 24 year old right fielder, and a 24 year old in general.
   36. Chicago Joe Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:24 AM (#3635731)
No, I originally came up with it for my ex-wife's vagina. Thank you, I'll be here all night.

You, uh, still have her number? I could use a little sucking vortex.
   37. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:29 AM (#3635733)
But its of Doom I tell ya, of Doom!
   38. Alex_Lewis Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:34 AM (#3635737)
A couple of years back while my buddies and I were drinking we created a game where we tried to include the phrase bro into as many words as possible. So instead of Poughkeepsie it would be Brokeepsie. We thought it was hilarious at the time. Of course we were very drunk at the time as well.


That was a brotif in Vladimir Nabrokov's 'Brolita'.
   39. ValueArbitrageur Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:34 AM (#3635738)
CarGo is hitting 36 points above the league road average, in a group of the some of the toughest road parks possible cause they don't include Coors. Petco is where he has his highest number of road ABs.

And of course Beane needed to give up on CarGo, he hadn't shown he could hit MLB pitching by age 22 after all.
   40. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:47 AM (#3635745)
CarGo is hitting 36 points above the league road average, in a group of the some of the toughest road parks possible cause they don't include Coors. Petco is where he has his highest number of road ABs.

And he won't take a walk to save his life


And if he was still in the AL with Oakland he would be playing half his games in Oakland which has significantly lower PF in virtually all offensive categories than Petco and AT&T and the Coliseum doesn't have the benefit of Coors field to make it look more like a pitcher's park than it really is. Plus his away games would be heavy on Safeco field the #1 pitcher's park in the game and Angels Stadium.
   41. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:53 AM (#3635748)
And he won't take a walk to save his life


He's drawn more walks this year than any of the A's outfielders.
   42. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:59 AM (#3635749)
He's drawn more walks this year than any of the A's outfielders.


Sure, but how many of them were of the lifesaving variety?
   43. tshipman Posted: September 08, 2010 at 05:01 AM (#3635750)
And all I can say about Colorado is Vinny Castilla came fairly close to a Triple Crown playing there. Vinny Castilla! The Sucking Vortex of Doom!


My favorite was Vinny Cash-Steala
   44. An Athletic in Powderhorn Posted: September 08, 2010 at 05:24 AM (#3635757)
Walks this season prorated to 600 PA:

Carlos Gonzalez: 33.21

He's drawn more walks this year than any of the A's outfielders."


This can be explained in 2 sentences: He has more than 200 more PAs than all but one A's outfielder. And Rajai Davis sucks. (Jack Cust has lumbered through the outfield for 15 games this year, so you could technically say that statement's not true at all.)
   45. puck Posted: September 08, 2010 at 06:07 AM (#3635768)
And all I can say about Colorado is Vinny Castilla came fairly close to a Triple Crown playing there.


You have a strange sense of "fairly close." Yeah, Vinny finished in the top 10 in all 3 categories one year. He only finished 24 HR's and .044 behind the leaders.
   46. Tripon Posted: September 08, 2010 at 07:29 AM (#3635776)
2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 07, 2010 at 08:01 PM (#3635562)
In 2008, Chipper hit .399 at home and .325 on the road. If he had been doing the same thing on the road that he was doing at home, I'd be glad to give him credit for that batting title.


From B-Ref, the 2008 Turner Field park factors were multi-year: Batting - 98, Pitching - 98 · one-year: Batting - 101, Pitching - 101 or just about park neutral as you can get.

Carlos Gonzales is batting in a park that yields multi-year: Batting - 109, Pitching - 109 · one-year: Batting - 113, Pitching - 112.

It isn't the Coors Field of old, but Cargo gets a much bigger advantage at home than Chipper Jones did in 08.
   47. Mike A Posted: September 08, 2010 at 08:58 AM (#3635786)
Oh, Vinny wasn't that close, but anytime a player of his...uh...caliber finishes in the top 10 in the Triple Crown categories...and if he wasn't 'chemically-enhanced' like the HR leader...

For fun, if you double his home stats that year: .368 BA/52 HRs/182 RBIs.
   48. Kyle S Posted: September 08, 2010 at 11:17 AM (#3635792)
Glad I didn't keep CarGo for $2. Matt Wieters was the much better selection.
   49. hokieneer Posted: September 08, 2010 at 01:24 PM (#3635831)
Justin T, I saw the CarGo HR highlight. I agree it was funny looking. I wouldn't go as far as you did calling it a foul ball. to me it looked like a typical 280-290 ft slicing double that lefties hit all the time. Even watching the highlight and knowing that he hit a 3-R HR, I was surprised that ball went out.

Only thing I care about with relation to carGo is he had better suck on their next road trip. I will not stand for someone getting hot in September, playing a bunch of home games in Coors, and stealing the MVP from Votto. It doesn't matter how many walks he draws, or what kind of park factor coors has. If he keeps hitting like this over the next few weeks and the Rockies sneak into the playoffs, then he'll win MVP.
   50. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3635954)
Carlos Gonzales is batting in a park that yields multi-year: Batting - 109, Pitching - 109 · one-year: Batting - 113, Pitching - 112.

It is actually much higher than that. Those are last year's PF.
   51. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 08, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3635995)
It is actually much higher than that. Those are last year's PF.

right now Colorado's raw park factor is 140 (10.6 r/g in Colorado, 7.6 on the road)
(by way of comparison the Mets raw park factor is 88- 7.5 at home 8.6 on the road)

So Colorado's park adjustment factor should be around 117-118 or so (and the Mutts around 94).
I'm reasonably sure that Foreman does not update park factors during the season-
1: Either Colorado is no longer using the Humidor or it's no longer working
2: At years' end every Rockie player is going to take a 5-6 point hit to their OPS+ when Sean does park factors (Helton really is toast)
3: Ubaldo is great
4: Pelfrey and Niese are now at 102 & 104 ERA+- the Mutts have 4 SP with ERAs+ over 100- that's a park illusion- with an updated PF they're at 97 & 99



so- at eyar'
s end
   52. Ron Johnson Posted: September 08, 2010 at 06:28 PM (#3636184)
#51 The screwy part is that this split is being driven almost exclusively by the hitters. The Rockies are hitting .302/.367/.504 at home and .228/.297/.354 on the road (IBBs removed -- not that it matters) and the pitchers are allowing .262/.319/.406 at home and .247/.320/.373

Which really complicates the discussion we're trying to have. And may explain the screwy defensive numbers Tom has been complaining about.
   53. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: September 08, 2010 at 06:53 PM (#3636219)
#51 The screwy part is that this split is being driven almost exclusively by the hitters.


no....
4.66 runs allowed at home
4.04 runs allowed on the road

a neutral split would be 4.29 at home and 4.58 on the road

It looks like Coors is back to its pre-humidor splits, if that's any consolation to Beane's fans....
Of course CarGo's road numbers in 2008 were .240/.282/.325 and this year they are .288/.310/.450- so Coor's inflation aside he has IMPROVED significantly.
   54. ValueArbitrageur Posted: September 09, 2010 at 05:25 AM (#3636666)
So Colorado's park adjustment factor should be around 117-118 or so (and the Mutts around 94).


If this is true it means the remaining national league parks (i.e CarGos road parks) are averaging around 98, and that non-Rockie hitters hit in road parks that average about 102. So he's hitting in much tougher road parks than any of his competitors.
   55. puck Posted: September 09, 2010 at 05:46 AM (#3636672)
It looks like Coors is back to its pre-humidor splits, if that's any consolation to Beane's fans....


So it would be ok to trade a CF with a 120 OPS+?

I posted this in the other CarGo thread...using tOPS on the team's home splits. This year bucks a trend. Are the pre-humidor splits back or is it a flukey year?


tOPS of home splits:

Year  Bat   Pitch
-----------------
1995  127   120
1996  138   112
1997  118   108
1998  123   109
1999  126   119
2000  129   114
2001  124   111
2002  129   107
2003  121   101
2004  120   111
2005  122   101
2006  113   104
2007  115   103
2008  114   100
2009  116   105
2010  129   104 
   56. Harold Posted: September 09, 2010 at 06:23 AM (#3636675)
And if he was still in the AL with Oakland he would be playing half his games in Oakland which has significantly lower PF in virtually all offensive categories than Petco and AT&T

Yeah, only if you look at one-year PFs for 2010. If you look at any kind of reasonable sample, that's not at all true, at least not in comparison to Petco (AT&T hasn't been all that much of pitchers' park in recent years). Petco has clearly been the most extreme pitchers' park, and the effects are across the board.
   57. Harold Posted: September 09, 2010 at 06:33 AM (#3636677)
Petco has clearly been the most extreme pitchers' park, and the effects are across the board.

I have retrosheet gamelogs from 2004-2009 on my computer, which I use to calculate park factors. Just based on runs/game, 33 of the 35 parks in use had PFs between 95 and 106; Coors is at 111 and Petco at 90.

If I look at hits/game or HR/game, Petco is the toughest in each, though the distance from the pack isn't as great. And if one park is the toughest for each of the components (not that I've run all the components, but those are the two biggies), then of course it's going to be toughest by far in the aggregate.
   58. Ron Johnson Posted: September 09, 2010 at 02:01 PM (#3636814)
#53 More innings at home. Their RA/9 is only 7% higher that it is on the road.

Even then, the bulk of the difference in run scoring isn't clearly park effects. The slash batting stats (which is where you'd expect the bulk of park effects to manifest themselves is only around 3-4% worse at home for the pitchers.

It's all very odd and worthy of a serious look.

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