Give me the $1M, I'll show up in tip top shape well below 210 lbs. And I can promise I will out-hit Andruw, but not necessarily any of the other Braves, including the entire pitching staff....

He would immediately make Frenchy look really good in comparison.

The Braves should trade for Andruw Jones. The Dodgers will gladly take Chipper Jones off their hands.

If the Braves could get Jones for a one-year deal at nearly $1 million with a bunch of incentives, they could see if he is close to his old self

Wasn't there talk that Jones would be released January 15 if he wasn't traded by then? Then he'd only be a $400K albatross.

Andruw Jones is not a good fit for the Braves or any Major League team. Albert Pujols is a good fit. Brandon Webb is a good fit. The Braves might be a good fit for Andruw Jones, but not the other way around.

I have no problem with this idea, as long as someone with some sense knows when to part ways, if AJ cannot play any more. The Braves tried this a few years ago with a Raul Mondesi/Brian Jordan come-back, but then let them get way too many at-bats before figuring out they weren't MLB players any more, at any price.

I guess the point is don't let Bobby Cox make the decision; he is too sentimental and less likeley to part ways when all indicators are that that is the right thing to do.

Andruw Jones is only a good risk for a team with no sentamentality, not expecting to compete, and no better young options. The Braves are a bad fit on the sentamentality, and probably the contention issues.

You have to assume that if you are willing to give Andruw X at bats (lets say 200) to see if he's can recover, those 200 ABs have a high likelihood of being sub-replacement level; something like the 150/250/250 he put up last year. After all, he was cut by a winter league team b/c of poor performance. So contenders really shouldn't be involved.

You also can't block a decent prospect for him, b/c, that horrific line is probably a better than 50% likelihood. And, you have to be willing to cut him ruthlessly the moment you conclude he's done. So, any team with a past connection, or vet loving managers/GMs (Atlanta, LAD, NYM, etc.) should stay far away.

But, if he somehow figures it out (say 25% chance) and becomes productive, he is still young, so could become an asset for someone.

So, if you're SD or Pitt and need OFs, you could give him a try. I'd want to give him minimal guaranteed money, and have at least two club option years to exploit his recovery.

Say $1M base w/incentives that could reach $5M in 2009, club option for 2010 at $6M, club option for 2011 at $8M (with a $2M buyout).

Are they going to collectively wear him?

Because that might actually work.

Yeah, zonk, I was going to say that for Andruw to be a good fit for the Braves, they must be in maternity sizes, or the XXXXL men's section.

If the Braves could get Jones for a one-year deal at nearly $1 million with a bunch of incentives, they could see if he is close to his old self

Does this even make sense? As I understand it, the Dodgers are on the hook for $18 million, or whatever they negotiated it down to, for the 2009 season. I thought anything a new team paid him would simply go towards that original contract, which means the incentives would be meaningless until they started approaching $18 mil, which they definitely won't do.

Am I wrong?

Say $1M base w/incentives that could reach $5M in 2009, club option for 2010 at $6M, club option for 2011 at $8M (with a $2M buyout).

I think at this point Jones would be happy for a legit chance to compete for a starting job without any money guarantees. He's already getting paid, what he needs is an opportunity to re-establish his value and that opportunity itself poses some risk to a team. Any team that guarantees him more than the minimum is making a mistake. A huge, monumental mistake. Basically, this is one of those weird situations where it would be worth it to Jones to PAY to be on an MLB roster. I sincerely wish Dayton Moore would offer to sell Andruw Jones the right fielder's job in KC just to watch Boras' head explode. Good times!

Maybe he's talking about the Gwinnett Braves?

I think at this point Jones would be happy for a legit chance to compete for a starting job without any money guarantees. He's already getting paid, what he needs is an opportunity to re-establish his value and that opportunity itself poses some risk to a team. Any team that guarantees him more than the minimum is making a mistake.

Once he's cut, he gets the Dodger money anyhow, and is a free agent, correct?

If you sign him for minimum, I think you still want to give him some incentives, to motivate him, and a team option or two.

If you sign him for minimum, I think you still want to give him some incentives, to motivate him, and a team option or two.

Wouldn't his incentive be to prove he doesn't suck? If he can't hit this spring, he's finished. It's really that simple. If that's not incentive enough for him, I don't think I would bother. He doesn't have the leverage to be coddled right now.

If you sign him for minimum, I think you still want to give him some incentives, to motivate him, and a team option or two.

I'd think that the possibility of having a job next year would be motivation enough.

I'd think that the possibility of having a job next year would be motivation enough.

You'd think so. But I can certainly see him being disgruntled if he's playing well in June making $400G.

Also, I'd really want the below market team option year(s), so the incentives in '09, are a easy give to get favorable option terms.

You'd think so. But I can certainly see him being disgruntled if he's playing well in June making $400G.

But he's not playing well into June making $400K. He's playing well into June making $400K from his new team, and $17.6M from the Dodgers - he still gets McCourt's money no matter where he is.

But he's not playing well into June making $400K. He's playing well into June making $400K from his new team, and $17.6M from the Dodgers - he still gets McCourt's money no matter where he is.

Exactly. Andruw Jones isn't the commodity, a roster spot is. Andruw Jones has no leverage. None. He's the buyer and an MLB team is the seller. I'm usually pro-player in their negotiations with management, but I have to admit, the Bizzaro World aspect of this is fun.

The 'Stat of the Day' today over at BBRef is based around Andruw. Pretty interesting stuff. It doesn't look good for him to bounce back.

Check it out.

Exactly. Andruw Jones isn't the commodity, a roster spot is. Andruw Jones has no leverage. None. He's the buyer and an MLB team is the seller. I'm usually pro-player in their negotiations with management, but I have to admit, the Bizzaro World aspect of this is fun.

Maybe they'll make him do the truffle shuffle before gaining entry to the clubhouse?

If he can't hit this spring, he's finished. It's really that simple.

Exactly. However, I don't think the purpose of incentives in this context is to motivate him to make the team (I agree that the idea he might not have a job should be motivation enough for him to get into shape). I think you put incentives into the contract as a carrot (hey, if you do a REALLY GOOD JOB...)

-- MWE

The 'Stat of the Day' today over at BBRef is based around Andruw. Pretty interesting stuff. It doesn't look good for him to bounce back.

Yes, very grim. I'd guess it's 80% that Andruw is never an above replacement level player again.

I LOVE that Bill Bergen is on that list for three consecutive years.

"Moore: Andruw good fit for Braves (RR)"

What, Joey Meyer won't return their calls?

I LOVE that Bill Bergen is on that list for three consecutive years.

I understand the game was a little different in 1910; but good grief, Brooklyn.

I understand the game was a little different in 1910; but good grief, Brooklyn.

I read a very good article recently about the worst hitters of all time. Bergen absolutely dominated.

Andruw Jones is not a good fit for the Braves or any Major League team.

Well, he's a crappy outfielder, so I suppose Moore's got a point. He'll fit in nicely.

The 'Stat of the Day' today

But it doesn't really help since, as whoever wrote the accompanying note acknowledges, none of those guys could ever hit. It's not a surprise that some guy who struggled along at a 65 OPS+ for a few years then bottomed out never got another shot.

Andruw's season was historically bad. I think we knew that. Unprecedented among guys who have been good hitters earlier in their careers. But a better list might be one where players drop 50+ points of OPS+ in a year or 70 points over two years or something like that. Did any of those bounce back?

I'll give a "not great" example -- Tim Salmon. He'd been cruising along at around 135-140 for several years. In 2001, he put up a 98 OPS+. In April 2002, he put up a line of 183/320/305. I was convinced he was toast. He put up a 1000 OPS+ in 3 of the next 4 months and returned to his old self for a couple more seasons.

And let's not forget how many folks thought Delgado was toast after a lackluster 2007 and poor first half of 2008.

Given his horrific descent, I'm definitely not predicting a bounce-back for Andruw and certainly not to his old levels of production. But I think those sorts of comps would give us a better idea than these. (OK, I'm not sure any sets of comps are really gonna do us much good, this situation is rare, maybe unique.)

"Andruw a good fit for the Braves"

Are the Braves a size 54 coat?

You'd think so. But I can certainly see him being disgruntled if he's playing well in June making $400G.

Also, I'd really want the below market team option year(s), so the incentives in '09, are a easy give to get favorable option terms.

My understanding is that every penny another team pays Jones this year saves the Dodgers a penny, by reducing what they owe him (unless it's over $18 million, his base salary). The only incentives that can be used would have to go towards an option year - you know, if he plays a certain number of games or gets a certain number of plate appearances, an option for 2010 would be picked up - maybe if he's comeback player of the year the value of the option year increases, stuff like that.

Given his horrific descent, I'm definitely not predicting a bounce-back for Andruw and certainly not to his old levels of production. But I think those sorts of comps would give us a better idea than these. (OK, I'm not sure any sets of comps are really gonna do us much good, this situation is rare, maybe unique.)

I hate to repeat myself, but the comp for Andruw is the same guy that's always been the comp for Andruw.

Ruben Sierra.

Andruw Jones is only a good risk for a team with no sentamentality, not expecting to compete, and no better young options. The Braves are a bad fit on the sentamentality, and probably the contention issues.

I don't think the Braves right now would be terribly sentimental. Bobby Cox might give him too much playing time, yes, but Frank Wren is the GM now, and he had nothing to do with any of Andruw's previous dealings with Atlanta. I suspect Wren would cut bait quickly.

I'm not convinced the Braves will even sign Andruw. They likely had scouts in the Dominican winter league, and said scouts likely reported back that he's toast.

My shoddy memory also recalls Andruw as a pretty weak spring training player, so a NRI for ST likely won't help him.

Frank Wren is the GM now, and he had nothing to do with any of Andruw's previous dealings with Atlanta. I suspect Wren would cut bait quickly.

For similar reasons, last offseason I doubted that Frank Wren would sign Tom Glavine or Javy Lopez, as rumored. I figured that instead of trying to live in someone else's past by reconstructing a geriatric version of Schuerholz's Braves, Wren would instead try to create Wren's Braves. I was wrong of course, as he then signed both Glavine and Lopez, though Lopez was cut in spring training when it was clear he had nothing left. This offseason he almost brought back Furcal, or at least he thought he almost did, or whatever actually happened there. Andruw Jones is probably next, as much as I'd hate it.