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Saturday, September 01, 2012

AL East race: September 1, 2012

NYY 76-56 [1-0 in SEPT]
BAL 73-59 [0-1 in SEPT] (3 GB)
TBR 72-61 [1-0 in SEPT] (4.5 GB)

MLB.com: Yanks capitalize, regain three-game edge over O’s

[Jeter] showed just how calm the Yankees remain Saturday, drawing a bases-loaded walk with two outs to score the tying run in the seventh inning of New York’s 4-3 win against the Orioles.

MLB.com: Turnabout is fair play for Rays in Toronto

Joe Maddon wore a big smile while describing what happened in the Rays’ 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday. “Fernando gets his 40th save and B.J. gets his first,” the Rays manager said.

B.J. Upton threw out Omar Vizquel at the plate to end the game, which is exactly how the game ended the night before—except the Rays were on the losing end of that play.

NTNgod Posted: September 01, 2012 at 05:48 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: al east, orioles, pennant race, rays, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: September 01, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4224683)
If it's September, it must be NTNgod.
   2. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 01, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4224706)
As to whether his team's past history of playing important games was any factor, the Yankees' captain demurred.
''If you win, they say experience helps,'' Jeter said. ''If you lose, they say you don't have enough youth.''

I'm beginning to really enjoy Jeter's knack for saying something by saying nothing.
   3. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 01, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4224726)
Two games in a row where the Jays/Rays game has ended with a home-plate collision to stop the tying run from scoring.

If that was Lawrie instead of Vizquel coming towards home, he would have blasted Molina into the second deck.
Vizquel tried to slide around him, and Molina simply fell on top of him to stop him from touching the plate.
   4. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: September 01, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4224733)
Jeter's at-bat against the (vastly overrated) Stroup was a thing of beauty.
   5. Belfry Bob Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4224766)
Jeter's at-bat against the (vastly overrated) Stroup was a thing of beauty.


Vastly overrated?

A setup guy no one has given a nod to until recently is somehow 'overrated'? By whom?
   6. AROM Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4224776)
"If that was Lawrie instead of Vizquel coming towards home, he would have blasted Molina into the second deck.
Vizquel tried to slide around him, and Molina simply fell on top of him to stop him from touching the plate."

The way I'd describe it is Vizquel crashed into Molina and just bounced off.
   7. Curse of the Andino Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4224779)
A setup guy no one has given a nod to until recently is somehow 'overrated'? By whom?


They've been playing up the O's bullpen in the national media over the past few weeks. That said, I'm wondering if maybe Strop hasn't hit a wall. He's also walked a ton of guys this year (4bb per 9).
   8. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4224864)
I think Stroup is replacement level. So any rating is over rated.
   9. The District Attorney Posted: September 02, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4224888)
[Jeter] showed just how calm the Yankees remain Saturday
calm eyes... so calm
   10. TerpNats Posted: September 02, 2012 at 09:43 AM (#4224984)
I think Stroup is replacement level.
Has Cuban Pete changed his tune from 1995?
   11. Belfry Bob Posted: September 02, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4225041)
Yes, that's 'replacement level' stuff Stroup has got all right. (Rolls eyes.)

Location? That's a different story, and it's been his issue forver, just less so this year. It's still an issue, and everyone's aware of it.

As Buck says, 'It's a ride every time he's out there.'

So Saturday was a really bad ride.

I have a feeling a number of teams would like to have such a 'replacement level' guy - even the Yankees.
   12. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 02, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4225176)
Looking good for the O's today and Ray already won. Things are getting tight!
   13. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: September 02, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4225186)
Yes, that's 'replacement level' stuff Stroup has got all right. (Rolls eyes.)

If only replacement level was defined by stuff. Sadly, command counts too, as long they call balls and strikes, anways, and Stroup has no idea where it's going. I posit that nearly all orgs have a guy in the minors with Stroup-like stuff, and Stroup like command, who are either being groomed to start or working on command. Throwing a wild 98 isn't that special.
   14. DKDC Posted: September 02, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4225188)
It's slightly annoying to see such an uninformed opinion in Strop (who has obvious flaws but is clearly a pretty good reliever).

But actually it's just cool that a non-Os fan even cares enough to have any opinion, no matter how silly, on some random Oriole reliever.
   15. boteman Posted: September 02, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4225231)
I posit that nearly all orgs have a guy in the minors with Strop-like stuff, and Strop-like command, who are either being groomed to start or working on command. Throwing a wild 98 isn't that special.

The Nationals had Henry Rodriguez up with the big league club, but sadly (HAPPILY!!!!) he is out for the remainder of the season with surgery to remove lose[sic] bodies in his elbow.
   16. Magnum RA Posted: September 02, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4225239)
The lucky O's took two out of three from the Yankees and the Yankees were lucky to win one.
   17. Magnum RA Posted: September 02, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4225240)
And it is Strop.
   18. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: September 02, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4225243)
It's slightly annoying to see such an uninformed opinion in Strop (who has obvious flaws but is clearly a pretty good reliever).

But actually it's just cool that a non-Os fan even cares enough to have any opinion, no matter how silly, on some random Oriole reliever.


Why is he clearly pretty good? His peripherals are mediocre and he is buoyed by a .248 BABIP. His 2011 and 2012 MLB H and HR rates are below his rates in AAA in 2010 and 2011, which is strong evidence they're unsustainable/lucky. He's a quintessential example of a guy being overrated by folks who don't dig like 3" under the surface. I guess he throws hard, and that's nice.
   19. DKDC Posted: September 02, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4225253)
You're missing that he's a completely different pitcher than last year or the minors. His new best pitch is a two-seamer that he throws most of the time, with a slider and four seamer mixed in.

His sinking fastball is so good that nearly 70% of balls in play are ground balls. That's a GB% as high as Lowe or Wang in their prime. That's why he's been so dominant despite a pedestrian K/BB.

His peripherals are fine, as long as you look at all of them. At worst, he's only an above average or average reliever, so calling him replacement level is silly.
   20. JJ1986 Posted: September 02, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4225259)
Strop has allowed 6 H/9ip. I guess that's not a peripheral, but it's fairly dominant.
   21. Magnum RA Posted: September 02, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4225268)
Weird double post.
   22. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: September 02, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4225289)
His sinking fastball is so good that nearly 70% of balls in play are ground balls. That's a GB% as high as Lowe or Wang in their prime. That's why he's been so dominant despite a pedestrian K/BB

What's the expected BABIP of a guy allowing 70% GB? I think you provided the best argument against yourself.
   23. DKDC Posted: September 02, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4225296)
You don't seem to have an argument except to point to his BABIP and claim he's replacement level. It seems like you've seen this guy pitch once on a particularly bad day, and then took a two minute glance at his stat line and did a simple 1999-era DIPS analysis.

Pick any metric that regresses BABIP and other peripherals and Strop is above average on all of them.

FIP
Strop: 3.34
Average AL Reliever: 3.81

xFIP:
Strop: 3.80
Average AL Reliever: 3.95

SIERA:
Strop: 3.46
Average AL Reliever: 3.52

So he's not as good as his ERA, and that's likely to regress, but he's still a very good reliever, and there's no way every team has a guy just like him sitting in the minors.

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