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Monday, September 03, 2012

AL playoff race: September 3, 2012

AL East

NYY 76-58 [1-2 in SEPT]
BAL 75-59 [2-1 in SEPT] (1 GB)
TBR 74-61 [3-0 in SEPT] (2.5 GB)

AL Central

CWS 73-61 [1-2 in SEPT]
DET 72-62 [2-1 in SEPT] (1 GB)

AL West

TEX 80-54 [2-1 in SEPT]
OAK 76-58 [2-1 in SEPT] (4 GB)

AL Wildcard

OAK 76-58 [2-1 in SEPT]
BAL 75-59 [2-1 in SEPT]
TBR 74-61 [3-0 in SEPT] (1.5 GB)
DET 72-62 [2-1 in SEPT] (3 GB)
LAA 72-63 [2-1 in SEPT] (3.5 GB)

MLB.com: Saunders helps O’s pull to within one in AL East
MLB.com: Gimenez helps Rays inch closer to Yankees
MLB.com: Anibal [Sanchez] strong again, but Tigers fall to Tribe
MLB.com: Yu tops Royals after showing perfect form early
MLB.com: Milone’s day is short, but not sweet, as streak ends
MLB.com: Beckham, bullpen keep White Sox in first

NTNgod Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:56 PM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: angels, athletics, orioles, pennant race, rangers, rays, tigers, white sox, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Chris Fluit Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4225705)

As an O's fan, I haven't felt this good in 15 years.

2. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4225708)

It's happening! It's happening!

3. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4225711)

I love Lou Piniella, but do not care for him at all in the booth.

It's pretty incredible that the Rays seem capable of plugging any reliever into that closer role and still achieve magnificent results.

4. boteman Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4225720)

I'm finding these fragmented threads less than helpful. Wouldn't it be better just to have one AL and one NL pennant race thread? Especially this season where there doesn't seem to be a clear runaway lineup of teams, pretty much anything could happen with a number of them. The divisional leader one day becomes the WC contender the next.

That's all I have, plus: How 'bout them Os?!

5. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4225721)

It's pretty incredible that the Rays seem capable of plugging any reliever into that closer role and still achieve magnificent results.

It's because they really believe that they can apply the precepts of sabermetrics to their closer role. You have to have the right mindset. Not every organization can do it. How many times have you seen a team that doesn't believe in sabermetrics try to install a new closer, only to have it blow up in their face. They don't have the "any talented pitcher can close" mindset that an organization needs to be successful.

6. DKDC Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:48 PM (#4225733)

The sabermetric mindset turns a replacement level reliever into a superstar? I'm skeptical.

In Rodney's case, it looks like they either had great scouting, great coaching, and/or just got lucky.

7. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4225735)

I concur. I think worth Terri wild card teams and all that it kind of confusing with 9 million threads about each possible computation.

8. Curse of the Andino Posted: September 03, 2012 at 07:27 PM (#4225745)

As an O's fan, I haven't felt this good in 15 years.

I kind of enjoyed last September.

9. tfbg9 Posted: September 03, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4225755)

Post 5 is a joke, you dopes!

10. Belfry Bob Posted: September 03, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4225760)

I really cannot believe the Orioles are a game out of first place.

I just typed that, and I STILL can't believe it.

But I sure like it.

It's been a long, long, LONG fifteen years.

I'll enjoy this ride no matter where it goes. It's sure fun.

I'll be there Friday night, fellahs. Try not to lose like you did when I came to Saunder's debut, or I'll be thinking I'm a jinx and be afraid to come out any more. (Have been to four games this year and the O's lost three of them.)

11. robinred

Posted: September 03, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4225778)

Angels beat the A's, 8-3.

I recall a few Baltimore fans talking some the last few years about how many BOS and NYY fans were at Camden Yards when those teams came in; I assume that the Orioles fans will be out in force this coming weekend.

12. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: September 03, 2012 at 08:52 PM (#4225789)

Post 5 is a joke, you dopes!

Post 5 is indeed a joke. It is the kind of subtle, intelligent and sophisticated humor for which I am beloved.

13. John DiFool2 Posted: September 03, 2012 at 08:53 PM (#4225791)

It's happening! It's happening!

The ghost of George Steinbrenner will waltz through the infield of Yankee Stadium wearing a green shirt and a catcher's mask?

14. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: September 03, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4225796)

Post 5 was excellent.

(And I thought so even before reading posts 9 and 12.)

15. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 03, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4225797)

That was one fine defensive play to end the game in Detroit, but this kind of sums up Detroit's season: reel off a big series win/sweep and fail to keep the momentum going against inferior teams.

16. escabeche Posted: September 03, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4225799)

In other exciting news, Baltimore has finally lifted itself out of Pythagorean last place in the AL East -- we now lead Toronto by one game.

17. Chip Posted: September 03, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4225800)

How much am I rooting for the Yankees to have a September collapse, miss the playoffs entirely, and then get off to a bad start next year?

18. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4225836)

Is it too much to hope that we end up with the following scenario:

NYY/TBR/BAL tie for AL East (let's say 91-71)
DET/CWS tie for AL Central (let's say 90-72)
TEX wins AL West (let's say 94-68)
LAA finishes second in the AL West (91-71).

What the hell happens now?

I assume there is an extra game played between DET/CWS (because the loser wouldn't get the wild-card by default), and some sort of insane battle-royale between the non-tie-breaking-winning-AL-East-teams (let's say TBR/BAL) and LAA. There would be some coin-flipping done, and A would play B, and the loser would host C, and the winner of those two games would be WC1 and WC2.

Or would they force all three AL-East teams to play a mini-round-robin to determine the AL-East champ, and the losers would then play another round-robin with LAA to determine the two WC spots?

19. robinred

Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4225841)

What the hell happens now?

A's fans get pretty pissed off.

20. Gamingboy Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4225847)

Something magic happens...

21. TerpNats Posted: September 03, 2012 at 10:37 PM (#4225852)

Let's see Baltimore fans fill Camden Yards the same weekend the Nats are home, thus finally disproving Cuban Pete's erroneous argument that the Orioles needed a monopoly at both ends of the B-W Parkway to survive as a franchise.

22. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4225885)

A's fans get pretty pissed off.

Haha! I just noticed I listed LAA instead of OAK for my example, and then just kept going with that.
My bad. That should have been OAK in the race, and LAA out of the picture.

23. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: September 03, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4225894)

Post 5 is indeed a joke. It is the kind of subtle, intelligent and sophisticated humor for which I am beloved.

I have to say that in the 13 years I've been posting here, that was literally the first time I can remember that a parody post had me stuck on the 50 yard line of belief / disbelief, and I was about ten seconds from jumping on the irony of the argument before tfbg9 brought me back to my senses. Well played, charityslave, well played.

24. SoSH U at work Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4225905)

How much am I rooting for the Yankees to have a September collapse, miss the playoffs entirely, and then get off to a bad start next year?

I believe the correct answer to this question is: "The exact same amount I am every year."

25. Walt Davis Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4225907)

I assume there is an extra game played between DET/CWS (because the loser wouldn't get the wild-card by default)

They'd have a playoff in any circumstance as they got rid of the "no need for a 1-game playoff" thing when they made the WC play-in game.

So, yes, in your scenario, they have to break the Det/CWS tie and the NYY/Bal/TB tie and then get on to breaking the OAK/ALE/ALE tie then the 1-game WC playoff.* Game 7 of the series would be scheduled for the Sat after Thanksgiving because they wouldn't want to go up against the NFL on TG day or the Bluebonnet Bowl on the Friday.

* Or in the case of a 3-way tie for both WC spots, would they just have a single playoff thingy to decide which 1 team goes to the real playoffs? Or would they really run a series to decide which 2 of the 3 should then playoff in a 1-game playoff?

26. Walt Davis Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4225912)

While I could tell it wasn't serious (although I wasn't ruling out mental instability) I have to say I don't get #5. Is this a parody of something I don't know? Or is it just funny from the faux arrogance?

27. boteman Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4225929)

#26 I think #5 is a parody of the "he doesn't have the closer mentality needed to be a closer" line often heard by the likes of Mitch Williams and his ilk. I had to read it several times in puzzlement, but I was one of the dopes who was getting caught by it.

28. SoSH U at work Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:03 AM (#4225931)

* Or in the case of a 3-way tie for both WC spots, would they just have a single playoff thingy to decide which 1 team goes to the real playoffs? Or would they really run a series to decide which 2 of the 3 should then playoff in a 1-game playoff?

I honestly don't know. Surely they'd break the division tie the same way they've always proposed it for 3-ways: coin flip determines two teams to play in first game, winner of that game hosts the team that earned bye to determine who wins the division.

The question then becomes, who goes to the wild card play-in game? Now, if Team A beats Team B in Round 1, then loses to Team C in Round, it would be easy to call Team A the other wild card and proceed accordingly. But what happens if Team A beats Team B and then also beats Team C? You'd obviously need a playoff game between the two losers to find a second wild card. But can you really have two entirely different sets of rules governing the determination of the second wild card?

29. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:16 AM (#4225933)

While I could tell it wasn't serious (although I wasn't ruling out mental instability) I have to say I don't get #5. Is this a parody of something I don't know? Or is it just funny from the faux arrogance?

The organization has to have the right mindset to choose a closer, in the same way that some say that only certain pitchers have the right mindset to be a closer. It's an inversion of what I perceive to be a "typical sabermatician" belief about how to value player roles, which I hoped would cause a pleasantly absurd dislocation of beliefs and some mildly baffling cognitive dissonance. But I'll take funny faux ignorance, too.

30. robinred

Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4225944)

#5 was clever, but in all seriousness, Fernando Rodney has been amazing for TB.

31. bobm Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:29 AM (#4225951)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Resolution_of_ties_in_division_races

This pre-dates the 2012 change in the wild card format. I understand that the division tie is now broken on the field because of the WC implications.

Resolution of ties in division races

The Resolution of ties in division races refers to methods use to determine the seeding order of teams when they finish the season with identical won-loss records, and there is no recourse to a one-game playoff.

After the introduction of the wild card in 1995, there have been several instances when a method is required to determine which team from a division is the division winner and which team is the wild card; because both teams are qualified for the post-season, a playoff between them is not an option, as these are only used to determine whether teams are included or excluded from postseason play. Major League Baseball has decided to award the division title - and the higher playoff seeding - to the team with the best record in head-to-head play. ...

Excerpts from Major League Rule 33 and Major League Rule 34 ...

Scenario #4: If three Clubs are tied for first place in a Division (or Wild Card) with an identical winning percentage at the conclusion of the championship season and the tied Clubs do not have identical records against one another in the championship season, the tie for the Division Championship (or Wild Card) shall be broken as follows:

If the three tied Clubs have identical records against one another in the championship season, the Office of the Commissioner shall supervise a draw that results in the Clubs' being designated Club "A," "B," and "C."

If the tied Clubs do not have identical records against one another in the championship season, they will be designated Club "A,""B," and "C" based on their records in head-to- head competition during the championship season as follows:

If Club 1 has a better record against each of Clubs 2 and 3, and Club 2 has a better record against Club 3, then Club 1 shall choose a designation as Club "A," "B," or "C," and Club 2 shall choose a designation from the remaining two designations. Club 3 shall be assigned the remaining designation. If Club 1 has a better record against each of Clubs 2 and 3, and Club 2 and Club 3 have the same record against each other, then Club 1 shall choose a designation as Club "A," "B," or "C," and the Office of the Commissioner shall supervise a draw between Clubs 2 and 3, the winner of which shall choose one of the remaining two designations. The remaining Club shall be assigned the remaining designation. If Club 1 and Club 2 have the same record against each other but each has a better record against Club 3, then the Office of the Commissioner shall supervise a draw between Clubs 1 and 2, the winner of which shall choose a designation as Club "A," "B," or "C." The Club losing the draw shall choose a designation from the remaining two designations. Club 3 shall be assigned the remaining designation. If Club 1 has a better record against Club 2, Club 2 has a better record against Club 3, and Club 3 has a better record against Club 1, then the three Clubs shall be ranked on the basis of overall winning percentage within that three-Club group, and the Club with the highest winning percentage from among that three-Club group shall have first choice among designations as Club"A," "B," or "C," the Club with the next highest winning percentage from among that three-Club group shall have the next choice between the two remaining designations, and the Club with the lowest winning percentage from among that three-Club group shall be assigned the remaining designation. If two or more of the Clubs within such three-Club group have the same winning percentage among the group, the Office of the Commissioner shall supervise a draw between the Clubs so tied to determine priority of selection among the designations.

Club"A" shall play Club "B" at the ballpark of Club "A" on the day after the season was scheduled to end. The following day, the winner of the first game shall be the home Club in a second game, against Club "C." The winner of the game between Club"C" and the Club that won the game between Club"A" and Club"B" shall be declared the Division Champion.

Example of Scenario #4: The Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins tie for the AL Central Division Championship. The Seattle Mariners have a better record than all three tied Clubs and would be the Wild Card. Based on their head-to-head records through games of September 7 (CWS 7-5 over each Minnesota and KC; KC 11-8 over Minnesota), the White Sox would choose their designation as Club "A," "B," or "C," and Kansas City would choose a designation from the remaining two designations. Minnesota would be assigned the remaining designation.

Scenario #5: If three Clubs in a League are tied with identical winning percentages at the end of the championship season and two of those tied Clubs are from the same Division and are also tied for first place in that Division and the third tied Club has the highest winning percentage among the second-place Clubs in the remaining two Divisions, the Division Champion shall first be determined by a one-game playoff the day after the season was scheduled to end. Any playoff games played to determine a Division champion shall not count in determining which Clubs are deemed tied for a Wild Card designation. Clubs that were originally tied with a Club or Clubs for a Wild Card designation shall still be considered tied.

Example of Scenario #5: The Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals and Florida Marlins all have identical winning percentages at the end of the championship season. The Astros and Cardinals are tied for first place in the NL Central and the Marlins have the highest winning percentage among the second-place Clubs from the NL East and NL West. The Astros and Cardinals would play a one-game playoff on Monday, September 29. The winner shall be declared the Division Champion. Despite the loss, the losing Club would still be considered tied with the Marlins for the lead in the NL Wild Card. Those two Clubs would play a one-game playoff on Tuesday, September 30. The winner of that game shall be declared the Wild Card.

Scenario #6: If four Clubs are tied for first place in the Wild Card (or Division) with an identical winning percentage at the conclusion of the championship season and the tied Clubs do not have identical records against one another in the championship season, the tie for the Wild Card (Division) shall be broken as follows:

The four teams will be designated Club"A," "B," "C," and"D" based on a draw by the Office of the Commissioner. Club"A" shall play Club"B" at the ballpark of Club "A" and Club "C" shall play Club "D" at the ballpark of Club"C" on the day after the season was scheduled to end. The following day, the winner of these games shall play one game, at the ballpark of Club "A" or Club "B," whichever has won the game between the two. The winner of the third game shall be declared the Wild Card.

32. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Fielder Posted: September 04, 2012 at 05:15 AM (#4225969)

31 jus co-ag-u-late-ed mah brAin.

33. DKDC Posted: September 04, 2012 at 07:50 AM (#4225988)

Well I clearly didn't get #5, so tip of the cap for making me look silly (it's a big club).

34. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish Posted: September 04, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4226140)

I really cannot believe the Orioles are a game out of first place.

Funny, I feel the exact same way about the Tigers.

35. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4226704)

36. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4226715)

I'm not waiting for the new thread. Kudos to the Yankees, I thought they could last until the end of the season in first place by themselves, but they showed me, they coughed it up barely after Labor Day. Well done, boys.

Told you! They were terrible tonight and the night before and only took one from the O's because of an error. It's been extremely ugly.

37. DKDC Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:03 PM (#4226718)

Well, even if the Yanks lose this game tonight, they will still be in first place. They'll just have company.

The Orioles are doing their best to erase their negative run differential. That's a +25 run differential in the last 5 games. Unfortunately, they managed to lose one of those games.

38. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:05 PM (#4226719)

[30] is the only comment better than [5] in this thread.

39. JJ1986 Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4226726)

and the O's are in first...

40. JJ1986 Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4226728)

and the O's are in first...

41. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4226729)

and the O's are in first...

They beat the snot out of the Jays tonight. Their pythag, which people were using as an excuse to not believe in them, is down to -19, from like -60 or so a month or so ago. They are playing like a team on a mission. I went back and bookmarked the "Buck Showalter is a schmuck for dissing Theo Epstein and the Yankees" thread from the 2010-2011 offseason to post it when he wins manager of the year.

This is definitely the year where the baseball gods wanted everyone to look silly. The Nats, White Sox, A's, and O's have been huge surprises (to varying degrees). Someone may have seen one or two of them coming, but all four? Ridiculous.

42. JJ1986 Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4226733)

and the O's are in first...

43. Athletic Supporter gangnam style Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4226737)

Hey anyone know who is in first in the AL East?

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AL playoff race: September 3, 2012

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