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1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4252030)Griffin v. Dempster tomorrow. Hope AJ finds his groove.
Yankees: clinched spot, would get home field with a win or Orioles loss, drop to WC with loss and Orioles win
Orioles: clinch WC with a win, division and #2 seed with win and Yankee loss, and would play loser of OAK/TEX with a loss
Atheltics: Division title with a win, game 163 with loss and Orioles loss, done with loss and Orioles win
Rangers: Same position as Athletics
But in the current format it's:
Yankees: Clinch division with win or Orioles loss. Otherwise, sent to game 163 to determine whether they'll get a WC berth or a division title and first round bye.
Orioles: Need a win and Yankee loss to force game 163 to determine as above. Otherwise will be a wild card.
Athletics: Win game for a first round bye.
Rangers: Win game for a first round bye.
So, the Rangers and Athletics have slightly less to play for in the new format since the loser could be done in the old format, but it's still pretty big. The Yankees have more to play for. The Orioles are in kind of a strange position. An Orioles loss would result in the exact same situation as last year with the WC round of the playoffs replacing a game 163.
And the question becomes, how do the O's play Game 162? All out to win (and hope for the nigh impossible, a Red Sox victory), just to grab a tie. Or play it straight (or even punt it), hope for a win and Yankee loss but save all your most important bullets for the play-in? It seems to me the more logical play is to expect to be in the wild-card game and, thus, don't knock yourself out in Wednesday's game (which, interestingly enough, is kind of what the new system is trying to prevent). At this point, you only have about a 25 percent chance of getting into a one-game playoff for the right to avoid the one-game play-in, so I'm not sure it's worth killing yourself in pursuit of that.
The Rangers-A's contest is exactly what baseball wanted with the two WC system (a division championship that truly matters). Though, as noted above, it would have been even more compelling last year when the loser would have had a very real chance of missing out on the postseason entirely.
Yeah, I was using the straight math, not accounting for the Godawfulness of one of the participants.
(Yeah, I know: only since 1918, and only 9-inning games.)
Edit: Half a coke to Suede.
Cook's pitched 4 straight, too. And Doolittle's pitched 3 straight and 4 out of 5. Plus, Neshek's away for his child's birth.
I really hope it doesn't come down to Scribner and Miller setting up Blevins.
They sure are. Bailey for Reddick. Can't believe anyone who touched that one is still gainfully employed.
And Derek Lowe getting the win for the Yankees. Of course.
We've had good luck with converting first basemen into relievers with Doolittle. Is it too late to teach Chris Carter to throw a four-seam fastball?
Daric Barton has a much better arm.
I'd favor throwing Balfour out there one more time, with somebody up for backup, juuuuust in case.
Balfour's season, pitching on 0 days rest: 18 games, 17 innings, 6 hits (1 HR), 7 BB, 17 K, 1.59 ERA.
It's voted on by the A's players and staff. Pretty cool thing.... although looking at the list of past winners (Hudson, Ellis, Kendall, Ellis again, Sweeney, Suzuki, Sheets, and Willingham) makes me think the award really means "guy who is leaving the A's soon."
Not great, but a heck of a lot better than the black hole he was at bat for much of the season. He's been much better than Weeks with the glove, too.
So...McCarthy
I actually would like to see that. If Balfour, Cook and Doolittle come in and do badly, it would bode poorly for the WC game on Friday maybe. But what the hell do I know? Melvin's made every right move this year whether I agreed with it at the time or not. For all we know Griffin will come down with the flu and Jesse Chavez will pitch a no-hitter.
Also, go A's! It would be unreal to win the division given the way things looked even a few days ago.
To be fair I think that describes everyone who's played for Oakland in the past few years.
FWIW, Orioles vs Yanks this year:
In Yankee Stadium: 6-3
In Camden Yards: 3-6
Trost and Levine destroyed the brand. ####### dumbshits
The Os can do a bullpen game tomorrow and still have a pretty good shot to win, and then they save their best starter for an elimination game (or game 163).
But he's already said that Tillman is starting today, so I guess that ship has sailed.
In buck we trust.
94 game score in a loss. It think that te highest since Randy Johsnon put up a 97 in 1992.
If you're the O's or A's, you were supposed to be long dead. Winning the division, even if you get swept in the LDS would be a huge achievement. So, go for it. Yes, it takes an unlikely Red Sox win for the O's to win the division, but it also takes an O's win. So, do what you do to win.
The one-game playoff, no matter who you pitch or how you approach it, isn't much better or worse than 50/50. Playing for strategy in setting up a one-gamer just doesn't get you much. If setting up that strategy costs anything at all, I don't do it.
Too bad about the Dodgers. And too bad I have meetings from 3pm through 8pm. Dammit.
Starting Tillman today probably increases the Os chance at winning a division title from maybe ~6% to ~8%. If that fails, they've probably reduced their chance at winning the Wild Card game from ~50% to ~40%.
All-in, the Os are reducing their chances of making it to the DS round by 5-10% (depending on how big you think the gap between Saunders and Tillman is, and how much you think HFA is worth).
Now, 5-10% is a big number, but it's not so big a number that its a no-brainer. If Buck thinks it would be bad for team morale to concede the division, then that might make up the difference right there. Again, I support Buck's decision, but I think you have to be willing to think outside the box in the world of one game playoffs.
Not necessarily. I'd almost rather have Saunders start in the Coliseum than Camden Yards.
Not to be harsh, but, nonsense. I agree the odds go down but a) while Tilman is good, he isn't Greg Maddux and b) while Saunders is not as good, he isn't some AAA call up. Try to win. That is all you can do. Let's say you punt the game and the Sox win. Then you lose the play-in. How do you sleep at night if you're an Oriole? Trying to win and failing is admirable. Playing it safe and failing is execrable.
How are they punting the game by not starting Tillman? He’s no Greg Maddux.
Not to be harsh, but that's nonsense. The goal is to win the world series, and you do whatever you can to maximize your ability to achieve that goal. It sounds like if the choice were between Greg Maddux or some AAA call-up for the wild card, you’d be advocating the execrable thing. So you don't really disagree with my strategy, just my assessment of the relative talent of Tillman and Saunders.
I'm very, very pleased to have no earthly idea what that refers to. (In short, people are stupid & they should be shot; correspondingly, the things they like &/or do tend to be insanely idiotic.)
The Yanks could solve that in a minute by lowering their prices to a point that reflects economic reality and the growing awareness of StubHub, but obviously they don't want to be setting any dangerous precedents.
The Yanks could solve that in a minute by lowering their prices to a point that reflects economic reality and the growing awareness of StubHub, but obviously they don't want to be setting any dangerous precedents.
Yep. I mean, I enjoy snatching $3 tickets off Stub Hub, but in a perfect world I'd pay a little bit more to get them from the box office. A little bit more, mind you. Not ten times more.
Hammel threw 73 pitches in a simulated game on Monday. He probably won’t be on the roster for Friday’s game.
Yep. I mean, I enjoy snatching $3 tickets off Stub Hub, but in a perfect world I'd pay a little bit more to get them from the box office. A little bit more, mind you. Not ten times more.
My only guess is that the Yanks feel that they can live with the embarrassment of seeing all those empty seats, and are putting their hopes on better economic conditions bringing back the crowds from 2009.
Personally I think that's a dubious strategy, since in 2009 you had a new stadium, two prize free agents, the best Yankees team since 1998, and plenty of season tickets sold before the full impact of the 2008 crash really set in. Not to mention the fact that the knowledge of all those StubHub bargains is pretty much universal by now.
I think even if the choice is between Maddux and some AAA Call Up you still go with Maddux. Even Maddux in a one and done situation is too close to a 50-50 bet for me to feel comfortable with. Baseball is just not a game that you can go into feeling especially confident in any one game. Weird #### happens so win the game in front of you and hope for the best.
the only reason i found out about it was checking up to see what the ohio university band was doing for 2012, and saw that they did that. ohio u. band did an awesome one for lmfao's party rock anthem last year.
Yes, but Cabrera should win the MVP over Trout because he lead his team to the playoffs and Trout didn't. And yes, I've seen people make that argument in the last couple of days.
"MOTHERF***ING YANKEES."
How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!
Yankees chances of winning today: About 75%
O's chances of winning today with Tillman: About 50%
O's chances of winning today with Randy Wolf: 40% maybe?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Tillman: 50%?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Steve Johnson:
O's chances of winning Friday with Tillman in Oakland/Texas
O's chances of winning Friday with Saunders in Oakland/Texas
O's chances of winning Friday with Tillman in Camden
O's chances of winning Friday with Saunders in Camden
It's always been a one-game playoff, and I'm not giving it up just because the postseason is getting bigger. The other games can find their own name.
As to your larger point, competitively speaking, I don't see how it matters much. Now, if you're talking other considerations like fan happiness or cash in Angelos pocket, then sure. But in terms of what gives you the best chance of advancing to the Semi-Elite 8, then having a home game vs. a road game in the play-in game is not terribly meaningful (and whatever edge you gain there you probably give right back since your opponent will have the advantage of not playing the day before, and thus have a more rested pitching staff).
Of course, if you get it, you welcome it. The question is to what extent you use your resources to procure that chip.
That's what happens when we let people decide on their own retarded nomenclature in place of the correct terms for things. If there'd been sufficient push-back when dumbasses started referring to one-game playoffs as "play-in games," there'd be no such confusion when they applied that term to the Wild Card Abomination.
Their shot at the division (if Tillman goes Thursday) is virtually the same either way.
Johnson has an injured knee and is "day-to-day." I believe Showalter intends to skip him this time through the rotation.
I'll take it under advisement. (I'm actually trying to get adjusted to being able to watch online videos at home, having obtained a new laptop last week to replace an 8-year-old desktop that I decided not to pay to have repaired.)
Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...
That game made me question the existence of God.
It would probably be a bullpen game without Tillman. It probably starts with Johnson (his knee has improved) for a few innings, then a couple innings a piece from Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, Bundy, Patton, etc. depending on how close the game is, and how quickly the Red Sox get blown out.
How about this for a compromise? The O’s start with a bullpen game, and watch the scoreboard. If by some miracle the Red Sox stay in the game, they can plug in Tillman in the 4th or 5th inning (hopefully after wrecking the Rays lineup with platoonery).
It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.
I'd only go all-in if there was some hope that winning the division would mean Keith Law would think we're good.
Yeah, this one.
Man, I wish I didn't have meetings today.
Well the fact that it was the Yankees made it worse. I had one of those Wile E Coyote faces with my jaw on the floor after that game was over.
Step 1: Figure out who your best pitcher is, and start him as soon as he has adequate rest.
Step 2: Do the same for your second-best pitcher, and third-best pitcher, and so on.
To do it any other way at this point of the playoffs is over-thinking it. The hope is you're going to be playing baseball for another couple of weeks. Make sure your best pitcher starts as many games during that time as he is physically capable of doing.
Otherwise you are running the risk of giving more October starts to lesser pitchers than to your best pitcher.
That game made me question the existence of God.
If it's any consolation, AFAICT it was the biggest extra inning comeback in American League history. You have to put these sorts of things in perspective. It's not often you get to see that level of History unfold before your very own eyes.
Well, that's part of the point. The playoffs haven't started yet. They still have the option of resting/saving pitchers for the start of the playoffs later this week. The pitcher who starts today will actually have fewer starting chances in the playoffs.
Your theology is askew. The Almighty loves the Yankees and loves America. It's one of the biggest distinctions between Him and Satan.
There's a very low chance (it involves the Red Sox winning) that tonight's game means anything for them.
Amen.
Red Sox jokes aside, tonight's game is not an elimination game; it likely only affects home field advantage for an elimination game Friday.
In fact, if they win and the Yankees lose, the Orioles will have to play an extra game on Thursday, which if they lose they will still have to play that elimination game Friday. So losing at least guarantees them a day of rest Thursday.
Looking at it further, the Orioles' best play might be to try to win tonight for home-field in the wild-card game and cheer for the Yankees to WIN so they get a day off on Thursday before the Friday game. (Winning the division isn't all that great because ALDS home field this year is games 3-5, right?)
But at this point they can't win the division without a tiebreaker game on Thursday. And if they happen to lose that, then they STILL have to play the wild card game Friday, but without any rest and presumably fewer pitchers available.
Actually, if you include the win today, it might be better represented as winning 2 of 3 played three consecutive days, versus winning 1 of 1 after an off day (although my scenario also aimed for a win tonight, meaning it could be characterized as 2 of 2 with an off day in between). And although you don't want to get caught looking ahead -- just getting to Saturday is obviously the goal -- the ALDS would likely start Saturday, right? So you could be looking at a potential four games in four days, and if you're playing all of them to win (best starters, full bullpen) it could get mighty difficult.
It's an interesting balance, to be sure. Who would be lined up to start Thursday? And if necessary, Friday? The quality and availability of starting pitchers would be a huge factor in this decision.
It will be interesting to see how they approach tonight (and Thursday if necessary) -- do you make a struggling starter try to eat innings and conserve the bullpen, etc.?
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