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Wednesday, October 03, 2012

AL playoff race: October 2, 2012

AL East

x - NYY 94-67 [19-11 in SEPT/OCT]
x - BAL 93-68 [20-10 in SEPT/OCT] (1 GB)

AL West

x - OAK 93-68 [19-11 in SEPT/OCT]
x - TEX 93-68 [15-15 in SEPT/OCT]

x - clinched postseason spot

MLB.com: Ibanez’s heroics keep Yanks alone in first place
MLB.com: [Chris] Davis’ clout helps O’s keep pace with Yanks
MLB.com: A’s force showdown with Texas for AL West crown

NTNgod Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:03 AM | 95 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, orioles, pennant race, rangers, yankees

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   1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4252030)
The pans over to the Rangers dugout the last two nights have made it seem like they've already accepted their fate as a WC team.
   2. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:12 AM (#4252031)
Also, god damn it, the Red Sox are useless.
   3. Hecubot Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:16 AM (#4252032)
Blackley had the game of his life after two disastrous starts. Aussie to Aussie, win and save.

Griffin v. Dempster tomorrow. Hope AJ finds his groove.
   4. shoelesjoe Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:24 AM (#4252036)
So Shields throws a complete game 2-hitter striking out 15 Orioles, walking none, and loses the game 1-0. One hit went about a hundred feet, the other about five hundred. Is that the best game by a losing starter this year?
   5. Austin Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:24 AM (#4252037)
I'm very excited for the do-or-die game for the AL West tomorrow. It's very frustrating that the Red Sox squandered that ninth-inning lead, though...
   6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:29 AM (#4252039)
In the old format it would be:
Yankees: clinched spot, would get home field with a win or Orioles loss, drop to WC with loss and Orioles win
Orioles: clinch WC with a win, division and #2 seed with win and Yankee loss, and would play loser of OAK/TEX with a loss
Atheltics: Division title with a win, game 163 with loss and Orioles loss, done with loss and Orioles win
Rangers: Same position as Athletics

But in the current format it's:
Yankees: Clinch division with win or Orioles loss. Otherwise, sent to game 163 to determine whether they'll get a WC berth or a division title and first round bye.
Orioles: Need a win and Yankee loss to force game 163 to determine as above. Otherwise will be a wild card.
Athletics: Win game for a first round bye.
Rangers: Win game for a first round bye.

So, the Rangers and Athletics have slightly less to play for in the new format since the loser could be done in the old format, but it's still pretty big. The Yankees have more to play for. The Orioles are in kind of a strange position. An Orioles loss would result in the exact same situation as last year with the WC round of the playoffs replacing a game 163.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:40 AM (#4252043)
An Orioles loss would result in the exact same situation as last year with the WC round of the playoffs replacing a game 163.


And the question becomes, how do the O's play Game 162? All out to win (and hope for the nigh impossible, a Red Sox victory), just to grab a tie. Or play it straight (or even punt it), hope for a win and Yankee loss but save all your most important bullets for the play-in? It seems to me the more logical play is to expect to be in the wild-card game and, thus, don't knock yourself out in Wednesday's game (which, interestingly enough, is kind of what the new system is trying to prevent). At this point, you only have about a 25 percent chance of getting into a one-game playoff for the right to avoid the one-game play-in, so I'm not sure it's worth killing yourself in pursuit of that.

The Rangers-A's contest is exactly what baseball wanted with the two WC system (a division championship that truly matters). Though, as noted above, it would have been even more compelling last year when the loser would have had a very real chance of missing out on the postseason entirely.
   8. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:41 AM (#4252045)
Hell, it's probably 25 percent at best just for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees tomorrow, let alone having the Orioles win their game too.
   9. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4252046)
Crazytown.
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4252047)
Hell, it's probably 25 percent at best just for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees tomorrow, let alone having the Orioles win their game too.


Yeah, I was using the straight math, not accounting for the Godawfulness of one of the participants.
   11. The Suede-Denim Secret Police Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:47 AM (#4252048)
I'd go all in if I were the O's. Even if you're resigned to playing the WC game, home field advantage would be a big deal and right now they're tied with Oakland/Texas.
   12. Squash Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:53 AM (#4252053)
This team man.
   13. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:53 AM (#4252054)
So Shields throws a complete game 2-hitter striking out 15 Orioles, walking none, and loses the game 1-0. One hit went about a hundred feet, the other about five hundred. Is that the best game by a losing starter this year?
Or, you know, ever.

(Yeah, I know: only since 1918, and only 9-inning games.)
   14. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4252056)
[7] I think the Orioles have to go for it. They lost the season series to both Oakland and Texas. So even if the Yankees win, home field in the wild card game is at stake.

Edit: Half a coke to Suede.
   15. Shredder Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4252057)
The pans over to the Rangers dugout the last two nights have made it seem like they've already accepted their fate as a WC team.
If that happens and the Rangers lose the wildcard game, that would be just about he most awesome thing ever.
   16. Willie Mayspedes Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4252060)
A's win! Ok good night all.
   17. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4252061)
I'd go all in if I were the O's. Even if you're resigned to playing the WC game, home field advantage would be a big deal and right now they're tied with Oakland/Texas.
I'm not sure what "all in" consists of, but I say go for it. I want to beat the Yankees, not just be a WC team. Even though Boston is determined to roll over.
   18. The Suede-Denim Secret Police Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:07 AM (#4252065)
Meanwhile for the A's, do we see Balfour close for a fifth straight game if they've got the lead? He's looked electric the last couple nights, but even the mad Aussie has got to have some physical limits, right?
   19. Danny Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4252067)
Meanwhile for the A's, do we see Balfour close for a fifth straight game if they've got the lead?

Cook's pitched 4 straight, too. And Doolittle's pitched 3 straight and 4 out of 5. Plus, Neshek's away for his child's birth.

I really hope it doesn't come down to Scribner and Miller setting up Blevins.
   20. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:21 AM (#4252069)
Also, god damn it, the Red Sox are useless.

They sure are. Bailey for Reddick. Can't believe anyone who touched that one is still gainfully employed.

And Derek Lowe getting the win for the Yankees. Of course.
   21. The Suede-Denim Secret Police Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:31 AM (#4252071)

I really hope it doesn't come down to Scribner and Miller setting up Blevins.


We've had good luck with converting first basemen into relievers with Doolittle. Is it too late to teach Chris Carter to throw a four-seam fastball?
   22. dr. scott Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:47 AM (#4252074)
At the game tonight. Crowd was electric from first pitch. Good to see Blackley go 6. Bullpen has got to be exhausted though. Oh yea, and Johnny Gomes won the Catfish Hunter award. Didn't hear what hat meant though... Is it for best facial hair? With Reddick clean shaven, I guess it was an easier pick.
   23. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:53 AM (#4252076)
We've had good luck with converting first basemen into relievers with Doolittle. Is it too late to teach Chris Carter to throw a four-seam fastball?

Daric Barton has a much better arm.

I'd favor throwing Balfour out there one more time, with somebody up for backup, juuuuust in case.
Balfour's season, pitching on 0 days rest: 18 games, 17 innings, 6 hits (1 HR), 7 BB, 17 K, 1.59 ERA.
   24. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:59 AM (#4252078)
The Catfish Hunter Award goes to the Oakland player "whose play on the field and conduct in the clubhouse best exemplifies the similar courage, competitiveness and inspirational spirit as the late Hall of Fame pitcher."
It's voted on by the A's players and staff. Pretty cool thing.... although looking at the list of past winners (Hudson, Ellis, Kendall, Ellis again, Sweeney, Suzuki, Sheets, and Willingham) makes me think the award really means "guy who is leaving the A's soon."
   25. shoelesjoe Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:05 AM (#4252079)
Evidently Showalter plans on starting Tillman on Wednesday, and then Joe Saunders will get the nod for the division playoff against the Yankees on Thursday or the WC game on Friday, depending. I hate to second guess Buck but this doesn't strike me as a move that gives the Orioles their best shot at surviving the week. If Tillman beats the Rays the O's are home against Texas/Oakland/NY no matter what. But would you rather have a winner take all home game with the 9-13 Saunders on the mound, or on the road with the 9-2 Tillman? Having that home playoff game is nice, but should that be the end all and be all of your post season strategy?
   26. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:23 AM (#4252083)
Cliff Pennington's line since moving to 2b from SS: .280 / .333 / .410.
Not great, but a heck of a lot better than the black hole he was at bat for much of the season. He's been much better than Weeks with the glove, too.
   27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:17 AM (#4252090)
The Catfish Hunter Award goes to the Oakland player "whose play on the field and conduct in the clubhouse best exemplifies the similar courage, competitiveness and inspirational spirit as the late Hall of Fame pitcher."
It's voted on by the A's players and staff. Pretty cool thing.... although looking at the list of past winners (Hudson, Ellis, Kendall, Ellis again, Sweeney, Suzuki, Sheets, and Willingham) makes me think the award really means "guy who is leaving the A's soon."

So...McCarthy

I really hope it doesn't come down to Scribner and Miller setting up Blevins.

I actually would like to see that. If Balfour, Cook and Doolittle come in and do badly, it would bode poorly for the WC game on Friday maybe. But what the hell do I know? Melvin's made every right move this year whether I agreed with it at the time or not. For all we know Griffin will come down with the flu and Jesse Chavez will pitch a no-hitter.
   28. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:06 AM (#4252097)
I'm not sure what "going all out" means in this context, but with an off day between game 162 and a potential WC game, I think other than choice of starter, there's no reason to hold back. I guess game 163 could throw a wrench in this, but it still seems clear to play your starting position players and not hold back on the pen. I suppose [25] at least was just talking about starting pitcher.

Also, go A's! It would be unreal to win the division given the way things looked even a few days ago.
   29. Greg K Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:39 AM (#4252099)
makes me think the award really means "guy who is leaving the A's soon."

To be fair I think that describes everyone who's played for Oakland in the past few years.
   30. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:19 AM (#4252117)
Evidently Showalter plans on starting Tillman on Wednesday, and then Joe Saunders will get the nod for the division playoff against the Yankees on Thursday or the WC game on Friday, depending. I hate to second guess Buck but this doesn't strike me as a move that gives the Orioles their best shot at surviving the week. If Tillman beats the Rays the O's are home against Texas/Oakland/NY no matter what. But would you rather have a winner take all home game with the 9-13 Saunders on the mound, or on the road with the 9-2 Tillman?

FWIW, Orioles vs Yanks this year:

In Yankee Stadium: 6-3
In Camden Yards: 3-6
   31. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:23 AM (#4252123)
Season ending series of defacto playoff games agains the Red Sox, and the Yankees have not drawn more than 41,000. Something is very wrong.

Trost and Levine destroyed the brand. ####### dumbshits
   32. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:52 AM (#4252130)
I think Showalter should hold back Tillman. The path to a division title depends on the Red Sox winning, which seems unlikely, to say the least.

The Os can do a bullpen game tomorrow and still have a pretty good shot to win, and then they save their best starter for an elimination game (or game 163).

But he's already said that Tillman is starting today, so I guess that ship has sailed.

In buck we trust.
   33. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 08:06 AM (#4252141)
So Shields throws a complete game 2-hitter striking out 15 Orioles, walking none, and loses the game 1-0. One hit went about a hundred feet, the other about five hundred. Is that the best game by a losing starter this year?


94 game score in a loss. It think that te highest since Randy Johsnon put up a 97 in 1992.
   34. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2012 at 08:24 AM (#4252151)
You play to win the game. I don't see any reason anyone would hold back today. Go out and play hard.

If you're the O's or A's, you were supposed to be long dead. Winning the division, even if you get swept in the LDS would be a huge achievement. So, go for it. Yes, it takes an unlikely Red Sox win for the O's to win the division, but it also takes an O's win. So, do what you do to win.

The one-game playoff, no matter who you pitch or how you approach it, isn't much better or worse than 50/50. Playing for strategy in setting up a one-gamer just doesn't get you much. If setting up that strategy costs anything at all, I don't do it.

Too bad about the Dodgers. And too bad I have meetings from 3pm through 8pm. Dammit.
   35. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: October 03, 2012 at 08:57 AM (#4252163)
If the Orioles lose, they have to go on the road Friday (Texas and Oakland hold the tiebreakers). You do whatever you can to avoid that.
   36. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 08:58 AM (#4252164)
Of course the As should go all out, but they are in a completely different situation than the Os, who are a longshot for the division.

Starting Tillman today probably increases the Os chance at winning a division title from maybe ~6% to ~8%. If that fails, they've probably reduced their chance at winning the Wild Card game from ~50% to ~40%.

All-in, the Os are reducing their chances of making it to the DS round by 5-10% (depending on how big you think the gap between Saunders and Tillman is, and how much you think HFA is worth).

Now, 5-10% is a big number, but it's not so big a number that its a no-brainer. If Buck thinks it would be bad for team morale to concede the division, then that might make up the difference right there. Again, I support Buck's decision, but I think you have to be willing to think outside the box in the world of one game playoffs.
   37. jobu Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:03 AM (#4252169)
Evan Grant of the DMN wrote this morning, about the A's celebration of clinching a playoff spot: "Champagn. Big fat stogies. It's possible a few of the players may have danced to 'Gangnam Style.'" Having watched the A's nearly every day for the 2nd half of the season, I think there is very little doubt that some of the players danced to "Gangnam Style."
   38. BDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:07 AM (#4252170)
Oddly enough, the only contending club that gets to take it easy is the seventh-place Detroit Tigers.

   39. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:09 AM (#4252171)
If the Orioles lose, they have to go on the road Friday (Texas and Oakland hold the tiebreakers). You do whatever you can to avoid that.


Not necessarily. I'd almost rather have Saunders start in the Coliseum than Camden Yards.
   40. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:14 AM (#4252177)
Not necessarily. I'd almost rather have Saunders start in the Coliseum than Camden Yards.
On the other hand, it's been 15 years, and Friday might end up being their only playoff game. If they go on the road and lose, and the home fans didn't get to even see so much as a celebration of clinching the playoffs, that would be a huge letdown.
   41. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:29 AM (#4252191)
If that fails, they've probably reduced their chance at winning the Wild Card game from ~50% to ~40%.

Not to be harsh, but, nonsense. I agree the odds go down but a) while Tilman is good, he isn't Greg Maddux and b) while Saunders is not as good, he isn't some AAA call up. Try to win. That is all you can do. Let's say you punt the game and the Sox win. Then you lose the play-in. How do you sleep at night if you're an Oriole? Trying to win and failing is admirable. Playing it safe and failing is execrable.
   42. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:29 AM (#4252192)
Yeah, as much as I don’t want to admit that anything would be a letdown after this season, a one-and-done – especially on the road – would sting a little bit.
   43. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:36 AM (#4252203)
Try to win. That is all you can do. Let's say you punt the game and the Sox win.


How are they punting the game by not starting Tillman? He’s no Greg Maddux.

Trying to win and failing is admirable. Playing it safe and failing is execrable.


Not to be harsh, but that's nonsense. The goal is to win the world series, and you do whatever you can to maximize your ability to achieve that goal. It sounds like if the choice were between Greg Maddux or some AAA call-up for the wild card, you’d be advocating the execrable thing. So you don't really disagree with my strategy, just my assessment of the relative talent of Tillman and Saunders.
   44. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:43 AM (#4252211)
Andrew Bailey, sleeper agent
   45. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:47 AM (#4252220)
Champagn. Big fat stogies. It's possible a few of the players may have danced to 'Gangnam Style.'" Having watched the A's nearly every day for the 2nd half of the season, I think there is very little doubt that some of the players danced to "Gangnam Style."


I'm very, very pleased to have no earthly idea what that refers to. (In short, people are stupid & they should be shot; correspondingly, the things they like &/or do tend to be insanely idiotic.)
   46. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2012 at 09:47 AM (#4252221)
Can't Hammel pitch on Friday?
   47. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:02 AM (#4252244)
Season ending series of defacto playoff games agains the Red Sox, and the Yankees have not drawn more than 41,000. Something is very wrong.

The Yanks could solve that in a minute by lowering their prices to a point that reflects economic reality and the growing awareness of StubHub, but obviously they don't want to be setting any dangerous precedents.
   48. robinred Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4252249)
This is cool. I was also thinking about how cool it would be under the two-division system.
   49. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4252252)



The Yanks could solve that in a minute by lowering their prices to a point that reflects economic reality and the growing awareness of StubHub, but obviously they don't want to be setting any dangerous precedents.


Yep. I mean, I enjoy snatching $3 tickets off Stub Hub, but in a perfect world I'd pay a little bit more to get them from the box office. A little bit more, mind you. Not ten times more.
   50. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4252268)
Can't Hammel pitch on Friday?


Hammel threw 73 pitches in a simulated game on Monday. He probably won’t be on the roster for Friday’s game.
   51. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4252270)
The Yanks could solve that in a minute by lowering their prices to a point that reflects economic reality and the growing awareness of StubHub, but obviously they don't want to be setting any dangerous precedents.

Yep. I mean, I enjoy snatching $3 tickets off Stub Hub, but in a perfect world I'd pay a little bit more to get them from the box office. A little bit more, mind you. Not ten times more.


My only guess is that the Yanks feel that they can live with the embarrassment of seeing all those empty seats, and are putting their hopes on better economic conditions bringing back the crowds from 2009.

Personally I think that's a dubious strategy, since in 2009 you had a new stadium, two prize free agents, the best Yankees team since 1998, and plenty of season tickets sold before the full impact of the 2008 crash really set in. Not to mention the fact that the knowledge of all those StubHub bargains is pretty much universal by now.
   52. Karl from NY Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4252291)
I find the Yankees' situation pleasingly symmetric (I'm not a fan, just commenting.) They can win any of three shots to reach the ALDS: game 162, tiebreaker game 163, or the wild card game. Or any Orioles loss. It's the most complicated magic number 1 ever.
   53. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4252301)
Not to be harsh, but that's nonsense. The goal is to win the world series, and you do whatever you can to maximize your ability to achieve that goal. It sounds like if the choice were between Greg Maddux or some AAA call-up for the wild card, you’d be advocating the execrable thing. So you don't really disagree with my strategy, just my assessment of the relative talent of Tillman and Saunders.


I think even if the choice is between Maddux and some AAA Call Up you still go with Maddux. Even Maddux in a one and done situation is too close to a 50-50 bet for me to feel comfortable with. Baseball is just not a game that you can go into feeling especially confident in any one game. Weird #### happens so win the game in front of you and hope for the best.
   54. bob gee Posted: October 03, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4252309)
#45 (gangnam style) - youtube it. really funny video, my thought was "rock me amadeus for 2012!".

the only reason i found out about it was checking up to see what the ohio university band was doing for 2012, and saw that they did that. ohio u. band did an awesome one for lmfao's party rock anthem last year.


   55. Chris Fluit Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4252312)
Oddly enough, the only contending club that gets to take it easy is the seventh-place Detroit Tigers.


Yes, but Cabrera should win the MVP over Trout because he lead his team to the playoffs and Trout didn't. And yes, I've seen people make that argument in the last couple of days.
   56. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4252320)
I'm kind of surprised that DKDC seems to be alone here. While I think the O's should be playing the game to win, they surely have a much, much better chance of winning the play-in game than they do of getting to AND winning a one-game playoff against the Yankees (it doesn't really help to get to the one-game playoff and lose), and thus I think any starting pitching/bullpen decisions should be based on that reality.
   57. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4252325)
It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words:

"MOTHERF***ING YANKEES."

How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!
   58. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4252345)
Can't Hammel pitch on Friday?

Hammel threw 73 pitches in a simulated game on Monday. He probably won’t be on the roster for Friday’s game.
My current understanding is that he's set to pitch the first game of the ALDS, if we make it.
   59. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4252351)
I'm kind of surprised that DKDC seems to be alone here. While I think the O's should be playing the game to win, they surely have a much, much better chance of winning the play-in game than they do of getting to AND winning a one-game playoff against the Yankees (it doesn't really help to get to the one-game playoff and lose), and thus I think any starting pitching/bullpen decisions should be based on that reality.
That's not quite right. If we play the Yankees in a tiebreaker game (calling it "playoff" is confusing), even if we lose we get the play-in game against TEX/OAK at home rather than on the road.
   60. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4252356)
Yeah. Making the tiebreaker game is the equivalent of getting an extra chip in Plinko. If you win it, you're in. If you don't, here's chance #2!
   61. dr. scott Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4252365)
What makes me sad is that even though there may be two bay area teams in the playoffs on sat and Sunday, It will still be a struggle to get our local bars to turn off a football game to watch them, and no chance for any of the other games.
   62. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4252367)
You'd have to have a lot of numbers to figure out whether throwing Tillman tonight is the right decision:

Yankees chances of winning today: About 75%
O's chances of winning today with Tillman: About 50%
O's chances of winning today with Randy Wolf: 40% maybe?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Tillman: 50%?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Steve Johnson:
O's chances of winning Friday with Tillman in Oakland/Texas
O's chances of winning Friday with Saunders in Oakland/Texas
O's chances of winning Friday with Tillman in Camden
O's chances of winning Friday with Saunders in Camden
   63. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4252370)
That's not quite right. If we play the Yankees in a tiebreaker game (calling it "playoff" is confusing), even if we lose we get the play-in game against TEX/OAK at home rather than on the road.


It's always been a one-game playoff, and I'm not giving it up just because the postseason is getting bigger. The other games can find their own name.

As to your larger point, competitively speaking, I don't see how it matters much. Now, if you're talking other considerations like fan happiness or cash in Angelos pocket, then sure. But in terms of what gives you the best chance of advancing to the Semi-Elite 8, then having a home game vs. a road game in the play-in game is not terribly meaningful (and whatever edge you gain there you probably give right back since your opponent will have the advantage of not playing the day before, and thus have a more rested pitching staff).

Yeah. Making the tiebreaker game is the equivalent of getting an extra chip in Plinko. If you win it, you're in. If you don't, here's chance #2!


Of course, if you get it, you welcome it. The question is to what extent you use your resources to procure that chip.
   64. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4252395)
If we play the Yankees in a tiebreaker game (calling it "playoff" is confusing)

That's what happens when we let people decide on their own retarded nomenclature in place of the correct terms for things. If there'd been sufficient push-back when dumbasses started referring to one-game playoffs as "play-in games," there'd be no such confusion when they applied that term to the Wild Card Abomination.
   65. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4252404)
Calculating everything with very broad estimates, the Orioles have about a 51% of making the round of 8 with a bullpen game today and a 48% chance of making it with Tillman starting today.

Their shot at the division (if Tillman goes Thursday) is virtually the same either way.
   66. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:01 PM (#4252411)
You'd have to have a lot of numbers to figure out whether throwing Tillman tonight is the right decision:

Yankees chances of winning today: About 75%
O's chances of winning today with Tillman: About 50%
O's chances of winning today with Randy Wolf: 40% maybe?
Ooh, I think we can pretty safely say the chances of that have been overestimated by approximately 40%.

O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Tillman: 50%?
O's chances of winning a one game playoff with the Yankees in Camden with Steve Johnson:
Johnson has an injured knee and is "day-to-day." I believe Showalter intends to skip him this time through the rotation.
   67. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4252413)
So is Britton going Thursday if there's a game?
   68. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4252419)
(gangnam style) - youtube it. really funny video, my thought was "rock me amadeus for 2012!".


I'll take it under advisement. (I'm actually trying to get adjusted to being able to watch online videos at home, having obtained a new laptop last week to replace an 8-year-old desktop that I decided not to pay to have repaired.)
   69. Spahn Insane Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4252424)
I'm very excited for the do-or-die game for the AL West tomorrow. It's very frustrating that the Red Sox squandered that ninth-inning lead, though...

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...
   70. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4252428)

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...



That game made me question the existence of God.
   71. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4252429)
#67,

It would probably be a bullpen game without Tillman. It probably starts with Johnson (his knee has improved) for a few innings, then a couple innings a piece from Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz, Bundy, Patton, etc. depending on how close the game is, and how quickly the Red Sox get blown out.

How about this for a compromise? The O’s start with a bullpen game, and watch the scoreboard. If by some miracle the Red Sox stay in the game, they can plug in Tillman in the 4th or 5th inning (hopefully after wrecking the Rays lineup with platoonery).
   72. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 03, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4252448)
That game made me question the existence of God.

It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.
   73. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4252487)
How about this for a compromise? The O’s start with a bullpen game, and watch the scoreboard. If by some miracle the Red Sox stay in the game, they can plug in Tillman in the 4th or 5th inning (hopefully after wrecking the Rays lineup with platoonery).
No way would they do that; that would be considered messing with Tillman's head, and managers are too conservative for that, particularly in a non-must-win game.
   74. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4252494)
I'd go all in if I were the O's. Even if you're resigned to playing the WC game, home field advantage would be a big deal and right now they're tied with Oakland/Texas.

I'd only go all-in if there was some hope that winning the division would mean Keith Law would think we're good.
   75. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 03, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4252519)
It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.


Yeah, this one.

Man, I wish I didn't have meetings today.
   76. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4252555)
It was bad, sure, but the A's have won so many games FROM OUT OF NOWHERE this year that it didn't bother me as much as it might have.
Gotta take the bad with the good.


Well the fact that it was the Yankees made it worse. I had one of those Wile E Coyote faces with my jaw on the floor after that game was over.
   77. Toby Posted: October 03, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4252597)
Who should the Orioles start? I think people are over-thinking this.

Step 1: Figure out who your best pitcher is, and start him as soon as he has adequate rest.
Step 2: Do the same for your second-best pitcher, and third-best pitcher, and so on.

To do it any other way at this point of the playoffs is over-thinking it. The hope is you're going to be playing baseball for another couple of weeks. Make sure your best pitcher starts as many games during that time as he is physically capable of doing.

Otherwise you are running the risk of giving more October starts to lesser pitchers than to your best pitcher.
   78. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4252616)
Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...


That game made me question the existence of God.

If it's any consolation, AFAICT it was the biggest extra inning comeback in American League history. You have to put these sorts of things in perspective. It's not often you get to see that level of History unfold before your very own eyes.
   79. spycake Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4252630)
To do it any other way at this point of the playoffs is over-thinking it. The hope is you're going to be playing baseball for another couple of weeks. Make sure your best pitcher starts as many games during that time as he is physically capable of doing.

Otherwise you are running the risk of giving more October starts to lesser pitchers than to your best pitcher.


Well, that's part of the point. The playoffs haven't started yet. They still have the option of resting/saving pitchers for the start of the playoffs later this week. The pitcher who starts today will actually have fewer starting chances in the playoffs.
   80. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4252639)

Yep. Between that game and the 4-run extra inning lead the A's pissed away in New York last week...

That game made me question the existence of God.


Your theology is askew. The Almighty loves the Yankees and loves America. It's one of the biggest distinctions between Him and Satan.
   81. Toby Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4252640)
#79 -- at this point, all games for the O's are playoff games.
   82. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4252652)
#79 -- at this point, all games for the O's are playoff games.


There's a very low chance (it involves the Red Sox winning) that tonight's game means anything for them.
   83. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 03, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4252657)
The Almighty loves the Yankees and loves America. It's one of the biggest distinctions between Him and Satan.

Amen.
   84. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4252675)
There's a very low chance (it involves the Red Sox winning) that tonight's game means anything for them.
Again, that's not right. If the Orioles win and the Yankees win, the Os get HFA for the play-in game.
   85. spycake Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4252676)
#79 -- at this point, all games for the O's are playoff games.


Red Sox jokes aside, tonight's game is not an elimination game; it likely only affects home field advantage for an elimination game Friday.

In fact, if they win and the Yankees lose, the Orioles will have to play an extra game on Thursday, which if they lose they will still have to play that elimination game Friday. So losing at least guarantees them a day of rest Thursday.

Looking at it further, the Orioles' best play might be to try to win tonight for home-field in the wild-card game and cheer for the Yankees to WIN so they get a day off on Thursday before the Friday game. (Winning the division isn't all that great because ALDS home field this year is games 3-5, right?)
   86. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4252701)
Looking at it further, the Orioles' best play might be to try to win tonight for home-field in the wild-card game and cheer for the Yankees to WIN so they get a day off on Thursday before the Friday game. (Winning the division isn't all that great because ALDS home field this year is games 3-5, right?)
Eh? Winning the division is all that great because losing the division means you have to win the play-in game just to get to the ALDS. There is no "Friday game" if the Orioles win the division.
   87. spycake Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4252722)
Eh? Winning the division is all that great because losing the division means you have to win the play-in game just to get to the ALDS. There is no "Friday game" if the Orioles win the division.


But at this point they can't win the division without a tiebreaker game on Thursday. And if they happen to lose that, then they STILL have to play the wild card game Friday, but without any rest and presumably fewer pitchers available.
   88. DKDC Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4252730)
The twitter says that the Rays have posted two lineups because Britton may start instead of Tillman…
   89. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4252732)
Well, this sucks.
   90. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4252752)
But at this point they can't win the division without a tiebreaker game on Thursday. And if they happen to lose that, then they STILL have to play the wild card game Friday, but without any rest and presumably fewer pitchers available.
If the Orioles win and the Yankees lose, then the Orioles have to win one of the next two games to make the ALDS. if the Orioles win and the Yankees win, then the Orioles have to win one of one game to make the ALDS. Which sounds easier: winning 1 of 2, or 1 of 1?
   91. spycake Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4252764)
If the Orioles win and the Yankees lose, then the Orioles have to win one of the next two games to make the ALDS. if the Orioles win and the Yankees win, then the Orioles have to win one of one game to make the ALDS. Which sounds easier? Winning 1 of 2, or 1 of 1?


Actually, if you include the win today, it might be better represented as winning 2 of 3 played three consecutive days, versus winning 1 of 1 after an off day (although my scenario also aimed for a win tonight, meaning it could be characterized as 2 of 2 with an off day in between). And although you don't want to get caught looking ahead -- just getting to Saturday is obviously the goal -- the ALDS would likely start Saturday, right? So you could be looking at a potential four games in four days, and if you're playing all of them to win (best starters, full bullpen) it could get mighty difficult.

It's an interesting balance, to be sure. Who would be lined up to start Thursday? And if necessary, Friday? The quality and availability of starting pitchers would be a huge factor in this decision.
   92. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4252797)
WOO-HOO!!!! GIVE THAT BOY A DRUG TEST!!!!
   93. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4252841)
Actually, if you include the win today, it might be better represented as winning 2 of 3 played three consecutive days, versus winning 1 of 1 after an off day (although my scenario also aimed for a win tonight, meaning it could be characterized as 2 of 2 with an off day in between).
If they don't win today, then they get an off day anyway, so by definition we're assuming they win.
And although you don't want to get caught looking ahead -- just getting to Saturday is obviously the goal -- the ALDS would likely start Saturday, right? So you could be looking at a potential four games in four days, and if you're playing all of them to win (best starters, full bullpen) it could get mighty difficult.
Today's game and tomorrow's tiebreaker game (if it happens) will be with the full 40-man roster. Friday's play-in game drops to a 25-man roster, but Saturday's game is a new playoff series so they can redo their roster between Friday and Saturday. So I don't think "four games in four days" is that big a deal. (Also, Saturday's is not a must-win the way the others are.)
   94. spycake Posted: October 03, 2012 at 05:54 PM (#4252891)
David -- I don't think we really disagree. I really just wanted to point out that the Orioles stand to get some "benefits" from a win tonight, regardless of the Yankee outcome.

It will be interesting to see how they approach tonight (and Thursday if necessary) -- do you make a struggling starter try to eat innings and conserve the bullpen, etc.?
   95. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 03, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4252970)
David -- I don't think we really disagree. I really just wanted to point out that the Orioles stand to get some "benefits" from a win tonight, regardless of the Yankee outcome.
Wait -- that was my point. So what are we arguing about?
It will be interesting to see how they approach tonight (and Thursday if necessary) -- do you make a struggling starter try to eat innings and conserve the bullpen, etc.?
Today? With a 40-man to work with? And a very deep bullpen?

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