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Thursday, September 13, 2012

AL playoff race: September 13, 2012

AL East

BAL 81-62 [8-4 in SEPT]
NYY 81-62 [6-6 in SEPT]
TBR 77-66 [6-5 in SEPT] (4 GB)

AL Central

CWS 76-66 [4-7 in SEPT]
DET 75-67 [5-6 in SEPT] (1 GB)

AL West

TEX 85-58 [7-5 in SEPT]
OAK 82-61 [8-4 in SEPT] (3 GB)

AL Wildcard

OAK 82-61 [8-4 in SEPT]
BAL 81-62 [8-4 in SEPT] / NYY 81-62 [6-6 in SEPT]
LAA 78-66 [7-5 in SEPT] (3.5 GB)
TBR 77-66 [6-5 in SEPT] (4 GB)

MLB.com: Orioles walk off in 14th
MLB.com: Yanks keep pace with O’s behind Hughes’ dandy
MLB.com: A’s undone by big inning vs. dominant Weaver
MLB.com: Texas falls to Tribe after rare Nathan blown save
MLB.com: White Sox-Tigers finale postponed, set for Monday

NTNgod Posted: September 13, 2012 at 10:27 PM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, athletics, orioles, pennant race, rangers, rays, tigers, white sox, yankees

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   1. boteman Posted: September 13, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4235391)
GAHH! Them damned Yankees suddenly remembered how to play Major League baseball. I just envision the Orioles as Captain Admiral Kirk kicking in the brains of the Klingon commander named "Yankee" and watching him plummet to the fiery depths. Just wishcasting, I guess.
   2. escabeche Posted: September 13, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4235392)
Two weeks ago the Orioles had one of the toughest remaining schedules in the race, but they're through the worst of it now -- three more games against TBR and three coming up against OAK, and everything else against Mariners, Red Sox, Blue jays. The Rays have a harder road ahead. Coolstandings has Baltimore with a 72% chance of making the playoffs today.
   3. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 13, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4235394)
Hughes came up big tonight.

The O's are unstoppable. Locked in a .500 season tonight. First time since 1997.
   4. Gamingboy Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4235400)
Two weeks ago the Orioles had one of the toughest remaining schedules in the race, but they're through the worst of it now -- three more games against TBR and three coming up against OAK, and everything else against Mariners, Red Sox, Blue jays. The Rays have a harder road ahead. Coolstandings has Baltimore with a 72% chance of making the playoffs today.


While on-the-field wise they are "past the worst", the whole road trip aspect worries me.
   5. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4235401)
We're at the point in the season where the odds don't matter anymore -- luck is going to overwhelm the odds in this sample size.
   6. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:07 PM (#4235404)
Joe Nathan blew the save in Cleveland, 5-4 Indians in the top of the ninth.
   7. bob gee Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4235408)
triple to andrus, but game over. injuns win it.
   8. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4235409)
This was apparently the first time the Yankees won back-to-back games since August 16.
   9. shoelesjoe Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4235411)
The Orioles just finished ten games in two weeks against the Yankees and Rays and went 7-3 against them. Anybody think that might change Keith Law's mind about whether Baltimore is a good team or not? Also, Tampa getting swept puts them in a serious hole with three weeks left in the season. If they don't win at least two out of three against the Yankees this weekend they may be toast.
   10. TerpNats Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4235420)
Sox have a one-game lead over Detroit, not two, because of the rainout and the rescheduling for Monday. Verlander will pitch Friday in Cleveland, Sale Friday in Minnesota. Monday's matchup will be Fister vs. Floyd.

We'll see whether the ultimate result of this means Mother Nature is a South Sider.
   11. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 13, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4235424)
What was Tampa's bullpen situation once Archer was out there? I thought Maddon pushed his luck sending Archer back out there after he somehow became Houdini reincarnated in the 13th. It was clear he had nothing left in the tank the following inning.
   12. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 14, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4235431)
What was Tampa's bullpen situation once Archer was out there? I thought Maddon pushed his luck sending Archer back out there after he somehow became Houdini reincarnated in the 13th. It was clear he had nothing left in the tank the following inning.
He got two outs, a walk, a ground ball and a soft fly ball. He's a starter, he had plenty left in the tank. He just gave up a run.

The Orioles just finished ten games in two weeks against the Yankees and Rays and went 7-3 against them. Anybody think that might change Keith Law's mind about whether Baltimore is a good team or not?
Why on Earth should it? And why the heck should you care?

The Orioles are not a particularly good team. Next season, without roster improvements, they will probably be .500 or worse. Who cares? All that matters is whether they won or lost, not whether they probably should or shouldn't have won.
   13. rlc Posted: September 14, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4235435)
Maddon still had Ramos and De La Rosa, who had each pitched on Tuesday, and whatever starters he was willing to burn; I'm guessing Price was already in New York, and I don't know what their side throwing schedule is like, so I don't know if Shields or Moore would have been available. Given Moore's age and potential, I wouldn't put him in a game less than 48 hours after he threw 94 pitches.

I guess Maddon felt that a tiring Archer was his best available pitcher.
   14. boteman Posted: September 14, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4235441)
I watched the last couple innings of the Orioles-Rays game at a bar, so no sound. I saw Archer bunting, did Maddon lose the DH somehow?
   15. Danny Posted: September 14, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4235443)
Jesse Freaking Chavez? I guess it doesn't matter when you can't score any runs.

The A's struck out 12 times tonight, which is the 39th time they've struck out 11+ times this year. The MLB is 226-380 in 11+ K games, while the A's are 22-17.
   16. Curse of the Andino Posted: September 14, 2012 at 01:09 AM (#4235450)
did Maddon lose the DH somehow


Longoria was the starting DH, then had to play the field.
   17. shoelesjoe Posted: September 14, 2012 at 01:18 AM (#4235454)
He got two outs, a walk, a ground ball and a soft fly ball. He's a starter, he had plenty left in the tank. He just gave up a run.


He hit a wall, and by the time he got to Machado had nothing left. 28 pitches in the inning, half of them out of the strike zone. The last three guys saw 14 pitches, 9 of them balls, and that's counting as a strike the 3-0 pitch Machado singled to left that might have been ball four.

Why on Earth should it?


Because they actually ARE a good team?

And why the heck should you care?


Why the heck should you care if I care?
   18. villageidiom Posted: September 14, 2012 at 02:24 AM (#4235463)
The Orioles just finished ten games in two weeks against the Yankees and Rays and went 7-3 against them. Anybody think that might change Keith Law's mind about whether Baltimore is a good team or not?
Three of those games confirm Law's supposition that the team is not good. The other seven games are just statistical outliers.
   19. Flynn Posted: September 14, 2012 at 04:48 AM (#4235470)
The Orioles have been outscored on the season and are 26-7 in one-run games, the most unsustainable stat ever. Their roster sucks. If they were 17-16 in one run games, they'd be 71-71 and we'd be speculating whether they can win 82 games.

Stop acting like Law is an idiot for thinking the Orioles aren't good because you're a fanboy or you think he's a buzzkill. I'm as glad as anybody they're having a great fluke season but that's all it is.
   20. shoelesjoe Posted: September 14, 2012 at 05:54 AM (#4235473)
The Orioles have been outscored on the season and are 26-7 in one-run games, the most unsustainable stat ever.


And yet somehow they've sustained the most unsustainable stat ever for 143 games.

If they were 17-16 in one run games, they'd be 71-71 and we'd be speculating whether they can win 82 games.


And if ifs were skiffs you'd have a navy.

Stop acting like Law is an idiot for thinking the Orioles aren't good because you're a fanboy or you think he's a buzzkill.


Law is an idiot for reasons that have nothing to do with whatever team I root for.
   21. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: September 14, 2012 at 06:26 AM (#4235476)
No, he's right. Teams occasionally have winning percentages like that in 1-run games, but it's not a skill and it disappears as the sample expands.
   22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 14, 2012 at 06:35 AM (#4235479)
The Orioles are lucky to be where they are right now. There is no reasonable way to explain their record compared to their run differential without attributing a bunch of their wins to good fortune.

The Orioles are not particularly lucky to be winning lots of games in September and August. Dan Duquette has overhauled the roster this summer, in particular the starting rotation but also important pieces of the bench and lineup, and this overhauled roster has been winning games at a rate commensurate with their run differential.

Where Law errs, I think, is not in saying that the Orioles have been lucky. Rather, he ought to have considered the makeup of their current roster before saying he doesn't think they "are" a good team.
   23. DKDC Posted: September 14, 2012 at 07:19 AM (#4235487)
#22 pretty much nails it.

I think reasonable people could disagree about what the Orioles true talent is right now. Is it possible that they have a roster right now that should win +/- 85 games over a full season and threaten for the wild card? I think that's on the high end of a reasonable assessment of the Orioles talent, but it's not crazy. Would that be a "good team"? Again, that's subjective and semantic, but i think many people would say yes.

In my view, Law's mistake is that he doesn't appear willing to put in the effort to look at the Orioles that way, and he's focusing on season to date run differential and dismissing them. But he's certainly been successful at making people care about his opinions, which is pretty much his job description.

As an Orioles fan, I don't really give a #### about any of this theoretical nonsense right now. The important thing is that they are in a very good position to make the playoffs even if they are a bad team.
   24. TerpNats Posted: September 14, 2012 at 08:00 AM (#4235507)
A thought: Suppose the Yankees have to play in the wild-card game, say at Oakland, and neither Los Angeles team qualifies. If you're Turner (and the MLB Network), how do you set up the postseason schedule? Who gets prime time if the Yanks aren't in the ALDS?
   25. Darren Posted: September 14, 2012 at 08:19 AM (#4235514)
MC,

How sure are you that the Orioles are indeed a sustainably good team right now? Has their run differential improved dramatically? Or, more importantly, how confident are you that the players on their team are actually as good as the team's record?
   26. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 14, 2012 at 08:39 AM (#4235522)
A thought: Suppose the Yankees have to play in the wild-card game, say at Oakland, and neither Los Angeles team qualifies. If you're Turner (and the MLB Network), how do you set up the postseason schedule? Who gets prime time if the Yanks aren't in the ALDS?


My guess is Baltimore-Chicago would get better ratings than Oakland-Texas. I think if you get Detroit instead of Chicago then that might change but even then...


In my view, Law's mistake is that he doesn't appear willing to put in the effort to look at the Orioles that way, and he's focusing on season to date run differential and dismissing them. But he's certainly been successful at making people care about his opinions, which is pretty much his job description.


Law is getting exactly what he wants, people talking about him. I subscribe to his Twitter feed and he really comes across very much as a sports radio sort looking to generate as much crap as possible. He's smart and has some good insights but he can be incredibly frustrating.

On an unrelated note does the Oriole network do a good job with replays? Twice in the last few days they've had dramatic finishes (Teixeira, last night) and they only showed the live feed of the final play on the MLB.com highlights. In both cases I wanted to see more but didn't get it. Is that just a function of how MLB gets the highlights or is that a function of MASN?
   27. BDC Posted: September 14, 2012 at 08:50 AM (#4235525)
Wow, I'm confused. I had been proceeding on the assumption that if the Rangers win their division (still likely, though a three-game lead isn't much with 19 to play in a tough division), they would be at home on 6-7 October; but come to find they'd be at home on 9-10 or 10-11 October (fourth game if necessary) and then for a fifth game as well, also if necessary. (I was literally out of the country when the schedule was announced.) I guess you have to be ready for anything in a postseason. Of course, I could still be looking at that bizarre 5 Oct. play-in game here or elsewhere, or playoffs to get into the play-in, and then maybe games in Arlington on 6-7 Oct. after all, or alternatively just watching a bunch of other teams play …
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:05 AM (#4235534)
Longoria was the starting DH, then had to play the field.

Really shouldn't have to do that with expanded rosters.
   29. JJ1986 Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:05 AM (#4235535)
Is that just a function of how MLB gets the highlights or is that a function of MASN?


It's MASN. They only showed each play once during the broadcast too.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:07 AM (#4235538)
Stop acting like Law is an idiot for thinking the Orioles aren't good

Law is an idiot b/c he's using the wrong definition of "good". If you win the games and make the playoffs you were good. Doesn't matter if it's unsustainable.

You can only judge success against the goals of the endeavor.
   31. Lassus Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:23 AM (#4235553)
The Orioles are lucky to be where they are right now. There is no reasonable way to explain their record compared to their run differential without attributing a bunch of their wins to good fortune.

Isn't the possibility that when they lost, they lost badly and yet were good enough to win a number of close games a reasonable way to attribute their run differential?

Now that I think about it, pythag is always used it seems to show how a good team has been lucky. Is it ever used to show that a good team with a winning record has simply been UNlucky? It seems like that is not illogical, but I'm probably missing something.
   32. SoSH U at work Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4235556)
Where Law errs, I think, is not in saying that the Orioles have been lucky. Rather, he ought to have considered the makeup of their current roster before saying he doesn't think they "are" a good team.


I'd say the reason why Law erred was because he said nothing the Orioles did between now and the end of the season could convince him they were a good team. That was the part that was utter nonsense.

I don't know if the Orioles are a very lucky team that got all the breaks and are now the same mostly lucky team enjoying a good stretch of ball, or one that, through personnel changes/improvement, have become an actually good team. What I do know is that the remaining games and the playoffs can give us an answer to that question. It's not a mark in his favor that he's ruled that out.
   33. AROM Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:28 AM (#4235557)
Longoria was the starting DH, then had to play the field.

Really shouldn't have to do that with expanded rosters.


I don't understand what happened there. Maddon gave up the DH, and used Chris Archer to pinch hit for Ryan Roberts mid-count after he got hurt. After that, the Orioles loaded the bases with nobody out. Maddon took out his outfielder and brought in Reid Brignac to go to a 5 man infield. Why didn't Brignac replace Roberts earlier? Did Maddon forget how many extra players he had on the roster? Was Brignac busy taking a dump and couldn't be disturbed earlier?
   34. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:32 AM (#4235559)
A lot of people seem to have a bug up their *** about the Orioles' success. Have they been lucky this season? Sure. But over the last 30-40 games they have one of the best records in baseball and a run differential to match. The rotation has been overhauled, Machado is playing steller defense at 3b, and Reynolds has been pretty good at 1b.

Will this carry over into next year? Hard to say, but a lot of the success has been built on the back of a bunch of players just entering or in the middle of their primes: Jones, Chen, Davis, and Wieters are 26, Markakis is 28, Tillman and Britton are 24, and Hardy, Johnson, and Hammel are 29. Many of those players were highly touted prospects. And next year Machado will be 20, and Bundy will like get a call up.
   35. JJ1986 Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4235562)
I don't understand what happened there. Maddon gave up the DH, and used Chris Archer to pinch hit for Ryan Roberts mid-count after he got hurt. After that, the Orioles loaded the bases with nobody out. Maddon took out his outfielder and brought in Reid Brignac to go to a 5 man infield. Why didn't Brignac replace Roberts earlier? Did Maddon forget how many extra players he had on the roster? Was Brignac busy taking a dump and couldn't be disturbed earlier?


I got confused about this too, but he had already given up the DH. Rich Thompson pinch ran for Carlos Pena (1B), then Keppinger moved from 3b to 1B, and the team was short an infielder. Brignac probably wasn't brought in then because most pitchers hit better than he does. Eliot Johnson ended up replacing Roberts.
   36. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:37 AM (#4235563)
Isn't the possibility that when they lost, they lost badly and yet were good enough to win a number of close games a reasonable way to attribute their run differential?


Isn't this just another way of saying "27-7 in one run games"? And another way of saying "27-7 in one run games" is "below .500 the rest of the time." That's a great recipe for penant fever, but a lousy one for long-term success.

Since the Yankees had that 10 game lead on July 18, they've gone 5-12 in one run games, while the O's have gone 10-1. I guess people get all worked up about having this stuff pointed out when they're trying to enjoy a close pennant race in real time, but we do all know objectively that a considerable amount of that is just random, right?

Let me put it this way: Forget Keith Law; if it was time to handicap an Orioles-Rangers ALCS matchup, and someone like Mike Francesa was touting the O's because of their superior record in one run games, how many of us wouldn't be calling him an idiot?
   37. JJ1986 Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4235564)
someone like Mike Francesa was touting the O's because of their superior record in one run games, how many of us wouldn't be calling him an idiot?


We'd also be calling him an idiot if he were discounting the O's because Matusz, Hunter and Arrieta had put up a bunch of crappy starts for them earlier in the season.
   38. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4235565)
Another team mistaking good luck for having a good team is the reason the Orioles have Adam Jones.

I don't understand what happened there. Maddon gave up the DH, and used Chris Archer to pinch hit for Ryan Roberts mid-count after he got hurt. After that, the Orioles loaded the bases with nobody out. Maddon took out his outfielder and brought in Reid Brignac to go to a 5 man infield. Why didn't Brignac replace Roberts earlier? Did Maddon forget how many extra players he had on the roster? Was Brignac busy taking a dump and couldn't be disturbed earlier?

Maddon put Longoria (the DH) at 3B in the 9th inning so he could move Keppinger to 1B. He had Archer pinch-hit because Roberts had an 0-2 count. Archer was going to come in to pitch the next inning anyway, so bringing him in to bat there allowed Maddon to not have to worry about the pitcher coming up to hit for a couple of innings. If Brignac hit for Roberts, then Archer would have been batting 1st.
   39. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4235568)
How sure are you that the Orioles are indeed a sustainably good team right now?
I think they're good. I've been impressed with the revamped starting rotation - I think they're about average, even though the club's overall SP ERA+ for the season is about 90. Combine that with an above average bullpen and an average to above average offense, yeah, this looks like an 84-88 win team to me.
Has their run differential improved dramatically?
Well, where you draw a cut-off is always debatable, but the last of the #### starters, Tommy Hunter, was pulled from the rotation on August 22nd. Since August 22nd, the Orioles are 14-5 with a 105-71 run differential (which would project to a record of 13-6 over that time). It's a very small sample, and the Orioles are obviously playing over their heads that last several weeks, but ever since the full overhaul of the rotation, they've been playing damn fine baseball.
Or, more importantly, how confident are you that the players on their team are actually as good as the team's record?
That's obviously the hard question. I think their rotation depth looks solid, but it would hardly shock the world if Zach Britton, Miguel Gonzalez, and Joe Saunders put up a collective 5+ ERA down the stretch. If that happens, this club isn't that good. I think they're more like average pitchers who should be competent, and that would make the Os a reasonable contender.
   40. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4235569)
Now that I think about it, pythag is always used it seems to show how a good team has been lucky. Is it ever used to show that a good team with a winning record has simply been UNlucky?
Come over to Sox Therapy some day...
   41. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4235572)
In five years, when the Orioles actually *are* good, O's fans are going to look back at this roster and think, "How the heck did they win 90 games? The current team would wipe the floor with them."
   42. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4235574)
In five years, when the Orioles actually *are* good,
It takes a Yankees fan to think that the Orioles core players will peak between the ages of 31-35.
   43. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:54 AM (#4235586)
I don't know if the Orioles are a very lucky team that got all the breaks and are now the same mostly lucky team enjoying a good stretch of ball, or one that, through personnel changes/improvement, have become an actually good team.


Or some of each.

A lot of people seem to have a bug up their *** about the Orioles' success.


Mostly just shoeless joe. In this thread, anyway.

But over the last 30-40 games they have one of the best records in baseball and a run differential to match.


The Orioles are 29-13 over their last 42 games, including 8-1 in one run games. If they had their pythagoean record over that stretch, they'd still be four games back instead of tied. They are in fact, a much better team than they were a couple of months ago, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that they aren't really a true talent .690 team.
   44. Darren Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4235589)
I look at the Orioles current roster and I don't see a 90-win team. The rotation looks decent, the pen looks good if over their head, adn the lineup doesn't look very good. I don't think the last 30 games are especially convincing, even if they're on a nice streak. I'm rooting for them though!
   45. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:58 AM (#4235592)
We'd also be calling him an idiot if he were discounting the O's because Matusz, Hunter and Arrieta had put up a bunch of crappy starts for them earlier in the season.


Well sure, but who is doing that in this thread?

And while we're on the subject, how does dumping a bunch of really crappy pitchers and replacing them with pretty good pitchers count as overcoming adversity? ;-)
   46. SoSH U at work Posted: September 14, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4235594)
Mostly just shoeless joe. In this thread, anyway.


No, Post 12 suggests some others have a similar case of Insect in the Anus.

They are in fact, a much better team than they were a couple of months ago, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that they aren't really a true talent .690 team.


And no one's claimed that. The question is, are the O's now a good team? The reason O's fans got so irked by Law is he's ruled out even that possibility.

   47. escabeche Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:15 AM (#4235607)
Another team mistaking good luck for having a good team is the reason the Orioles have Adam Jones.


Quoted for truth.

And it speaks, too, to why it actually matters to the Orioles whether they're good or lucky right now. If the Orioles were to, say, win 90 games, get to the ALCS and lose, and conclude from this "we're only one big bat away from a title, let's trade Machado and Bundy for superstar X," that would be an extremely bad move. But I don't think that's even being contemplated.

On the other hand, I think the Orioles putrid records have made it difficult for them to be serious players in the FA market even when they're willing to spend. A lucky season and a lot of young players with upside makes Baltimore a much more attractive destination. The Mariners let their good luck fool them into making a move that was bad in the medium and long term. The Orioles have the opportunity to leverage their good luck into an opportunity to add talent on the field.
   48. Nasty Nate Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4235615)
Being sustainable is not a requisite quality for being good. For the most part, how good the Orioles are in 2013 does not describe how good they were in 2012.

I guess I'm just repeating Snapper:
Law is an idiot b/c he's using the wrong definition of "good". If you win the games and make the playoffs you were good. Doesn't matter if it's unsustainable.


Keith Law in May/June: The Orioles aren't good and so they won't continue to win games this season.

Keith Law now: They continued to win games, but not in the manner I like, so therefore my prediction was actually accurate.
   49. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:23 AM (#4235617)
no one's claimed that


The post I responded to seems to come close, although I'll admit to reading it in a certain way for editorial effect. At any rate, while the O's run differential in the past 40 or so games does support the claim that they are now a pretty darned good team, it does not actually support their W-L record in that stretch. And I guess that's my answer to "are the O's now a good team?" Good is always relative.

Anyway, I'm not talking about being irked by Law. That's obviously quite understandable. I'm talking about projecting Law's POV onto anyone who dares to mention something like their record in one run games. I mean, Larry seems to be on the verge of abandoning his lifelong Yankee fandom in favor of Baltimore, and yet even he is getting crap from O's fans.
   50. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4235622)
escabeche - I don't think it matters much right now if the Orioles are lucky or good. If I were an O's fan I'd like to think I'd be sitting back and enjoying the ride. When baseball stops and the hot stove season begins then it becomes incredibly important of course but right now it's pretty meaningless.
   51. Joey B. Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4235639)
The rather obvious takeaway lesson from the 2012 Orioles is that having one of the all time great bullpen seasons in MLB history can go a long way towards covering for some gaping holes.

Can this year's bullpen performance possibly come even close to being repeated next year? If I absolutely had to bet money on it, my guess would be "no". But then again, I thought that the Orioles were just about finished like two months ago.
   52. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4235649)
Come over to Sox Therapy some day...


It's a trap!
   53. escabeche Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4235663)
If I were an O's fan I'd like to think I'd be sitting back and enjoying the ride


Oh, don't worry, we are! (Though the tooth-clenching extra-inning games don't allow for a lot of sitting back....)
   54. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4235679)
I didn't mean to suggest that I think they're a true talent .690 team, just that they've been playing well recently. And I think it's relevant that the team that's been playing well isn't the same team that played poorly in June and July. I think the current roster is an 84-86 win team, which means that no one should be surprised if they win 95 games, and no one should be surprised if they win 75.
   55. Nasty Nate Posted: September 14, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4235683)
...and no one should be surprised if they win 75.


I'd be very surprised because they already have 81...
   56. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4235693)
haha...I should have said "play at a 75 win pace" or something.
   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 14, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4235712)
I'd be very surprised because they already have 81...

They could get dinged for a recruiting violation.
   58. SG Posted: September 14, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4235720)
The Oriole's Pythagenpat winning percentage bottomed out on July 17 at .434(about a 70 win team). They were 46-44 at that point and were about 9 wins better than Pythagenpat.

Since then they've gone 35-18 and have a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .573, so they've been a bit less than 5 wins better than their Pythagenpat.

By their runs scored and allowed they've now played at about a 93 win level for 53 games. Whether or not that's closer to how good they are as presently constituted than their overall season numbers I don't know, but I'm guessing there's at least some truth there.
   59. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 14, 2012 at 11:33 AM (#4235740)
The O's are unstoppable. Locked in a .500 season tonight. First time since 1997.

On the other side of that coin, the Red Sox are two losses away from their first sub-.500 season since 1997.

(And if they lose at least 10 of the last 18 games, which they almost certainly will, it will be their first 90-loss season since 1966, aka the year before the Impossible Dream. If they finish behind Toronto, it will be their first last-place divisional finish since 1932.)
   60. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: September 14, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4235752)
They could get dinged for a recruiting violation.
An ICE investigation will reveal that Manny Machado isn't actually a 20-year-old native of Miami, but rather a 35 year old man named Billy Wilds from Urbana-Champaign, IL using a stolen identity.
   61. BDC Posted: September 14, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4235893)
It gets worse, I just looked on StubHub and the Rangers are playing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the ALDS, the ALCS, and the World Series. What will Bud come up with next.
   62. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 14, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4235911)
It gets worse, I just looked on StubHub and the Rangers are playing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the ALDS, the ALCS, and the World Series.


Fox is going to hate that.
   63. SG Posted: September 14, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4235939)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays


Holy crap, it's 2007 again!
   64. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 14, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4235959)
Fox is going to hate that.

Real, really takes the interest out of the first two series.

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