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Sunday, September 23, 2012

AL playoff race: September 23, 2012

AL East

NYY 88-64 [13-8 in SEPT]
BAL 87-65 [14-7 in SEPT] (1 GB)

AL Central

CWS 81-71 [9-12 in SEPT]
DET 80-72 [10-11 in SEPT] (1 GB)

AL West

TEX 90-62 [12-9 in SEPT]
OAK 86-66 [12-9 in SEPT] (4 GB)

AL Wildcard

BAL 87-65 [14-7 in SEPT] (1 GA)
OAK 86-66 [12-9 in SEPT]
LAA 84-69 [12-8 in SEPT] (2.5 GB)
TBR 83-70 [12-9 in SEPT] (3.5 GB)

MLB.com: Kuroda off his game as Yanks drop series finale
MLB.com: Orioles’ win streak ends in Fenway finale
MLB.com: Endangered White Sox drop fifth straight
MLB.com: [GAME 1] Scherzer, Tigers can’t slow Twins in Game 1
MLB.com: [GAME 2] Tigers lose ground after dropping twin bill
MLB.com: Dempster in command for Rangers at Seattle
MLB.com: Pitching, defense key as Rays sweep Blue Jays

NTNgod Posted: September 23, 2012 at 05:45 PM | 71 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: angels, athletics, orioles, pennant race, rangers, rays, tigers, white sox, yankees

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1. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 23, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4243781)

The Orioles would lose when there's finally ground to be gained.

The Tigers' defense in that disaster inning made me nostalgic for my own little league lowlight reel. Some classic stuff in there.

2. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 23, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4243795)

The ~~Orioles~~ Yankees would lose when there's finally ground to be gained.

Such is a pennant race.

Cross-posting from the other thread: I said earlier that if the Yankees took two from each of their remaining series (Oakland inclusive) they'd be in good shape. So far, mission accomplished.

EDIT: And they have ten games against three teams who are collectively 198-259 (.433), so if the Yankees can't win 6 of those 10, they don't deserve any kind of playoff berth.

3. BDC

Posted: September 23, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4243799)

The Rangers took a 3-0 lead into the seventh, though Dempster appears to be pitching to the score, giving up a HR to Thames.

4. ShoeGrit Posted: September 23, 2012 at 07:45 PM (#4243837)

What is Scherzer doing pitching today ? Didn't he just have an MRI for a sore shoulder. Velo was off 3-5 MPH according to game recap. Doesn't seem like a smart move to me. I guess they had no choice...pennanat race and all. But still. And in the article they say they expect his velo to return to normal in his next start ? Really, based on what ? How can they even make that assumption ?

5. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: September 23, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4243838)

With the A's going to TX and the Angels getting the M's, I (an A's fan) have a very very bad feeling about the week ahead.

6. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 23, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4243839)

The Tigers' defense in that disaster inning made me nostalgic for my own little league lowlight reel. Some classic stuff in there.

They've had a few gems already to start the second game. Watching Brennan Boesch hurts.

7. Justin T is expanding the aperture of awareness Posted: September 23, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4243840)

With the A's going to TX and the Angels getting the M's, I (an A's fan) have a very very bad feeling about the week ahead.

Well, the second half of the week is the inverse, so...

Of course the season ends with the bad formulation again, but I guess if there is a series that the Rangers might be taking off to some extent, it would be that one depending on whether they've clinched.

8. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: September 23, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4243842)

Well, the second half of the week is the inverse, so...

I can't look that far ahead...I'm just barely peeking through my fingers. My stomach has been unsettled for the last two weeks.

9. escabeche Posted: September 23, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4243855)

Such is a pennant race.

Right now it's more like a three-legged race.

10. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 23, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4243860)

the time the A's and Halos spend playing TX gives the Rays a potential opening.

11. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past

Posted: September 23, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4243865)

With the A's going to TX and the Angels getting the M's, I (an A's fan) have a very very bad feeling about the week ahead.

Well, the second half of the week is the inverse, so...

Of course the season ends with the bad formulation again, but I guess if there is a series that the Rangers might be taking off to some extent, it would be that one depending on whether they've clinched.

Who gets Felix, though?

I am going to be in conflict, because I am pulling for the A's to make the playoffs, the M's and Boston having shat the bed.

12. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: September 23, 2012 at 09:11 PM (#4243866)

I think if the A's win 1 out of 3 in Texas they're probably in decent shape. Angels would have to sweep Seattle to just to tie. Then the A's get the last 6 games at home, while the Angels are on the road -- both teams play Texas and Seattle. Rays get 7 games on the road against Boston and Chicago and 3 at home against Baltimore, so their schedule is no "gimme" since they need to win like 7 games just to have a chance. If the A's can't hold on here, they really don't deserve a playoff berth.

13. Spivey Posted: September 23, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4243881)

I think the Rangers aren't nearly the lock people are acting like here. Their starting pitching is coming around but the offense has some key guys hurt. If the Rangers win the series, the division is basically clinched. But if they lose the series, it's wide ####### open.

14. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: September 23, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4243885)

It's true the A's still have a chance to win the division, but there's still a talent gap between the two teams, especially with the A's having to start Straily, Blackley and Milone now instead of Anderson, Colon and McCarthy. I'd love for the A's to win 5 of 7 against Texas and make a run at the division title but the bullpen got a pretty exhaustive workout in New York and Straily and Milone in Texas don't fill me with confidence. To me any more than 1 win there is a bonus.

15. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 23, 2012 at 10:11 PM (#4243891)

Bang up day, Tigers.

16. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: September 23, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4243895)

If the A's can't hold on here, they really don't deserve a playoff berth

What the A's deserve has nothing to do with it. It's about the outcome I want!

17. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: September 23, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4243896)

I thought the Tigers would be a game up by now. Boy was I wrong.

What the A's deserve has nothing to do with it. It's about the outcome I want!

Well sure, me too.

18. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 23, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4243898)

Tigers are lucky it even got to extra innings. Were it not for Ben Revere's bone-headed base-running, who knows how many runs that terrible defensive showing would have yielded?

19. TerpNats Posted: September 23, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4243906)

The AL Central: Baseball's equivalent of giveaway checkers.

20. BurlyBuehrle Posted: September 23, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4243920)

The AL Central: Baseball's equivalent of giveaway checkers.

I really, really, really wish there was some basis - any basis - for me to disagree with this. Somehow, the White Sox haven't been able to out-choke Detroit, but give it time! Six games left against a terrible Cleveland team. 2-4 in those 6 games sounds about right, at this point. And a Tampa Bay team that has been all but eliminated? Maybe 1-3 in that four-gamer. Of course, Detroit will be almost as bad, forcing a Game 163, which Bud will declare a tie in Inning 22 after the Sox hitting with RISP can't out-bedcrap the Tigers' D. And the Mayans discover they were a little over 2 months off in their prediction as everything fades to black...

21. boteman Posted: September 23, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4243934)

The Orioles would lose when there's finally ground to be gained.

The Orioles and Yankees appear to be mimicking the behavior of the Nats and Braves for the last several weeks. I made the remark that those two teams seemed to have a tungsten steel bar welded between them in the standings because they would win or lose in lockstep each night. It was getting tedious for a time there. At least it's not a boring end to the baseball season.

22. DFA Posted: September 24, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4243947)

The AL Central is the new NL

23. drdr Posted: September 24, 2012 at 04:38 AM (#4243965)

Interestingly, everyone battling for division/wildcard (Central excluded) in AL is playing between 12-9 and 14-7 in September. Unlike NL, where team range from hot through average to free-falling.

24. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 24, 2012 at 05:29 AM (#4243968)

Who gets Felix, though?

The Angels, on Wednesday.

25. RMc and His Roster of Rubbish Posted: September 24, 2012 at 05:35 AM (#4243969)

if the Yankees can't win 6 of those 10, they don't deserve any kind of playoff berth.

I thought the Tigers would be a game up by now. Boy was I wrong.

If the A's can't hold on here, they really don't deserve a playoff berth.

It's a 162-game schedule, folks. Some of those games, you're gonna (1) win when you should've lost and (2) lose when you should've won. Good teams usually have more (1) than (2). Usually.

Yes, losing 23,674 consecutive one-run games is a tad disappointing for us Tigers fans. So is the lack of offense. And defense. And relief pitching. But them's the breaks. One game back with ten to play? In a division we should've clinched around the 4th of July? OK, I'll take it. Play ball!

26. Best Regards, L.M. Posted: September 24, 2012 at 06:51 AM (#4243974)

The Orioles will be in first place alone at this time tomorrow.

27. Belfry Bob Posted: September 24, 2012 at 07:04 AM (#4243976)

It's been quite awhile since I attended six games in seven days, but that's about to happen as Camden Yards becomes my address this week. Since my personal September record is only 1-3, I hope that's not a bad thing. Looking forward to what I hope is an amazing week!

Just going to the Orioles' website Saturday and clicking 'playoff tickets' to see if I could manage a seat for the WC game (I did) was surreal. I hope for many more surreal moments over the next bunch of days!

28. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4244012)

29. BDC

Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:13 AM (#4244013)

I think the Rangers aren't nearly the lock people are acting like here

I never have overconfidence in the Rangers' clutch abilities either, but 4 games with 10 to play is a big hill to climb, and the Rangers have been playing solid, if unspectacular, baseball in September (12-9 so far this month). The Rangers haven't swept a series since late June, but conversely haven't been swept since the Fourth of July; they very rarely have a game where they're not competitive. Every possible wheel will have to fall off for Oakland to catch them. And having said that, the wheels will probably start to loosen up tonight :)

30. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:18 AM (#4244016)

Not that I think this is either a pro- or anit-Orioles conspiracy but why, if they have a day off on Thursday, are they playing a double-header today? Isn't the point of leaving off-days in September that teams don't play double-headers?

Well, since the Blue Jays are going to be playing the Yankees in Toronto on Thursday, would you like for the Orioles to get the 1916 A's or the 1962 Mets as a replacement opponent?

31. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:22 AM (#4244018)

Well, since the Blue Jays are going to be playing the Yankees in Toronto on Thursday, would you like for the Orioles to get the 1916 A's or the 1962 Mets as a replacement opponent?

This did not occur to me, although in my defense, I'm a moron. D'oh!

32. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4244025)

Just going to the Orioles' website Saturday and clicking 'playoff tickets' to see if I could manage a seat for the WC game (I did) was surreal.

The funny part about that is you probably hope that's a ticket that proves unnecessary.

33. Spivey Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4244026)

I never have overconfidence in the Rangers' clutch abilities either, but 4 games with 10 to play is a big hill to climb, and the Rangers have been playing solid, if unspectacular, baseball in September (12-9 so far this month). The Rangers haven't swept a series since late June, but conversely haven't been swept since the Fourth of July; they very rarely have a game where they're not competitive. Every possible wheel will have to fall off for Oakland to catch them. And having said that, the wheels will probably start to loosen up tonight :)

But 7 of the 10 games are against Oakland. That makes it a lot easier for them to catch us.

34. DKDC Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:04 AM (#4244031)

35. DKDC Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4244032)

But 7 of the 10 games are against Oakland. That makes it a lot easier for them to catch us.

Yes, and dramatically so. It's an interesting little quirk of statistics.

Lets say the Rangers lead is down to one game with one game to play.

Would the Rangers rather:

1) face the As for game 162.
or
2) face the Yankees while the As face the Indians.

I haven't run the log5's, but I think #2 gives the Rangers a better chance of winning the division.

36. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4244035)

It's September, so the Jays should have enough players to field an A team and B team and play two games at the same time on Thursday.

I'm sure the Orioles would be happy to accomodate, if it would make RB more comfortable.

And so would the Yankees, if they could choose how to divide up the Toronto roster. Hell, they might even find a pitcher who couldn't strike out Curtis Granderson.

37. JJ1986 Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4244039)

Hell, they might even find a pitcher who couldn't strike out Curtis Granderson.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, Romero is pitching today.

38. SoSH U at work Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4244046)

Lets say the Rangers lead is down to one game with one game to play.

Would the Rangers rather:

1) face the As for game 162.
or
2) face the Yankees while the As face the Indians.

Even accounting for the quality of opposition, it's certainly the latter. In scenario 1, there are only two possible outcomes, tied or up 2. It's pretty close to 50/50 for either.

In scenario 2, there are 4: Both win; Rangers win, A's lose; A's win, Rangers lose; both lose.

In that case 3/4 of the outcomes are positive for the Rangers. The weakness of the Indians is probably going to knock that down somewhere below true 75 percent, but probably no lower than 70.

Your former scenario gives you better odds for building your division lead, so is the situation you would want any time before Game 162. But in a situation where there is no marginal benefit to that extra 1 in the GB column, you'd want the condition that makes the status quo a strong possibility.

39. The Id of SugarBear Blanks

Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4244047)

Yes, losing 23,674 consecutive one-run games is a tad disappointing for us Tigers fans. So is the lack of offense. And defense. And relief pitching. But them's the breaks. One game back with ten to play? In a division we should've clinched around the 4th of July? OK, I'll take it. Play ball!

God I hate this team.

40. escabeche Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4244053)

Not that I think this is either a pro- or anit-Orioles conspiracy but why, if they have a day off on Thursday, are they playing a double-header today?

Obviously a pro-Orioles conspiracy, since a doubleheader means Clutch God Taylor Teagarden is in the lineup for the inevitable extra innings in game 2.

41. Danny Posted: September 24, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4244146)

I went to all three games in the Bronx over the weekend. So much baseball, and such a contrast between the pitchers duel on Friday night and the slopfests on Saturday and Sunday. Friday felt like the A's might steal a game after Moss's HR, while Saturday's loss was an epic disappointment. My heart sunk a little on A-Rod's warning track drive in the 9th yesterday, but I was happy they managed to leave NY with the one win.

Melvin seemed like he pushed most of the right buttons, except for the bizarre pinch hitting appearance by Jemile Weeks with one out and no one on in the 9th yesterday.

42. escabeche Posted: September 24, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4244189)

Orioles - Blue Jays this afternoon -- finally, Steve Johnson gets another start!

43. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 24, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4244278)

Melvin seemed like he pushed most of the right buttons, except for the bizarre pinch hitting appearance by Jemile Weeks with one out and no one on in the 9th yesterday.

Going for the righty/lefty matchup with a very fast runner in a 1-run game, esp. if he's planning to get Barton in for defense anyway, doesn't seem THAT crazy to me.

44. Belfry Bob Posted: September 24, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4244370)

Orioles - Blue Jays this afternoon -- finally, Steve Johnson gets another start!

You and I have been touting him for another start for awhile; hopefully we were right to do so!

I am heading down but I will miss a lot of that first game, depending on what time I can leave my store in Gaithersburg.

45. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4244379)

Take the InterCounty Connector, and bring a wheelbarrow of cash to do it.

46. Chris Fluit Posted: September 24, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4244410)

It took back to back poor outings by Britton to bump him in the rotation in favor of Johnson. Though it looks like this is only a double-header thing as Johnson isn't scheduled to start again this week.

47. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4244574)

Mister...Mister Jooooonnnnnnnnes...

48. escabeche Posted: September 24, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4244623)

Belfry Bob and I were right about Steve Johnson!

49. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4244624)

Orioles in the win column, Johnson gets the win, Johnson gets save #48. Now 1/2 game behind the Yankees going into game 2 of the double-header in Charm City. They will end the night either 1/2 game back or 1/2 game ahead. Fasten your seatbelts.

50. rlc Posted: September 24, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4244628)

Steve Johnson's stuff makes Josh Towers look all-universe. Luckily, he knows that he must never, ever throw a pitch that catches more than a half inch of the plate. That, combined with the late afternoon shadows, got him a win today. I have no appetite for watching him start again any time soon.

51. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4244649)

Chen not exactly impressive, either. Orioles with the bullpen active in the second inning, trailing 4-0. Oy vey.

52. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 24, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4244653)

Chen not exactly impressive, either. Orioles with the bullpen active in the second inning, trailing 4-0. Oy vey.

Long way to go, and they aren't exactly down four to '99 Pedro. In fact, they're down four to a guy who last won when he put the Jays two games above .500 and within four of the O's. I don't think it's panic time.

53. escabeche Posted: September 24, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4244661)

Down two, you mean. This team does not give up.

54. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4244664)

Who is a better pitcher:

1) Chris Davis
2) Ricky Romero

55. escabeche Posted: September 24, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4244677)

Come on, Teagarden, pretend it's the 21st inning.

56. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4244686)

Pull Romero!!! He's going to blow to lead. He's already 3/4 of the way there.

57. JJ1986 Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4244693)

Goddamnit, Endy

58. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4244697)

Jeez, did anyone see that snatch and tag play that Martin just made to preserve that 4-0 lead?

59. Good cripple hitter Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4244706)

Brett Lawrie trying to break his bat over his knee and failing three times in a row really summarizes this Jays season nicely.

60. escabeche Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4244715)

Orioles have the bases loaded for the third time this game -- will they come up empty again?

61. Good cripple hitter Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4244717)

No, because it is absolutely impossible for Ricky Romero to be the winning pitcher in a ballgame.

62. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4244719)

Andy Pettitte's pitching line tonight: 6 innings, 87 pitches, 7 hits, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts, no runs. That's 11 scoreless innings since he's come off the DL.

And another moon shot by Ibanez. Nothing like some mediocre Minnesota pitching to heat up the Yankee bats.

63. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4244722)

J.J. Hardy way you take that swing
gonna make you win, gonna make you sing

But, yes, the Os waste another bases-loaded opportunity. And good Arrieta left during that last half-inning and is replaced by bad Arrieta.

edit: Good night!

64. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4244730)

Now 1/2 game behind the Yankees going into game 2 of the double-header in Charm City. They will end the night either 1/2 game back or 1/2 game ahead. Fasten your seatbelts.

there is a third possibility, tho it is the Jays.

65. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4244734)

It's looking like it will be a 1.5 game lead for the Yankees. I can't remember the last time the lead was more than a game.

66. boteman Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4244736)

there is a third possibility, tho it is the Jays.

I had thought about that right as I punched the Submit button, but I was thinking positively at the time. Now with the Yanks leading the Twinkies 6-0 and the Orioles rolling over quietly that third outcome seems inevitable. I hope to awake tomorrow to better news.

67. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: September 24, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4244750)

Game ending triple play!

68. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 24, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4244761)

It's looking like it will be a 1.5 game lead for the Yankees. I can't remember the last time the lead was more than a game.

Reportedly, it's been 1 game or less since September 3rd, a span of 21 games - a game less than the record set by the 1889 New York Giants and Boston Beaneaters.

69. Spivey Posted: September 24, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4244766)

ADRIAN ####### BELTRE

70. Belfry Bob Posted: September 25, 2012 at 12:04 AM (#4244800)

71. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship

Posted: September 25, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4244811)

Did take the Intercounty, so leaving Gaithersburg at 3:15, I parking at Lexington Market, got my chicken wings doused in hot sauce, and sat down at The Yard at 4:20. Unfortunately, I cursed the O's into a split, making my Sept record 2-4.

Bad news is, I'm going to every game this week.

Let's Go O's Anyway!

A high school friend and I once took the bus from DC to Baltimore for consecutive twi-night and day-night doubleheaders back in 1962, long before I-95 connected the two cities. Being total Yankee fans, we were totally not thrilled when the Orioles swept all four games and then added a fifth on Sunday afternoon. The only consolation is that we snuck into the Saturday night game, although the walk-off ending kind of ruined the occasion, bringing my Yankee record in Memorial Stadium to an embarrassing 1 and 6.

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