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Friday, September 28, 2012

AL playoff race: September 28, 2012

AL East

NYY 91-66 [16-10 in SEPT]
BAL 90-67 [17-9 in SEPT] (1 GB)

AL Central

DET 84-73 [14-12 in SEPT]
CWS 83-74 [11-15 in SEPT] (1 GB)

AL West

TEX 92-65 [14-12 in SEPT]
OAK 89-68 [15-11 in SEPT] (3 GB)

AL Wildcard

BAL 90-67 [17-9 in SEPT] (1 GA)
OAK 89-68 [15-11 in SEPT]
LAA 87-70 [15-9 in SEPT] (2 GB)
TBR 86-71 [15-10 in SEPT] (3 GB)

MLB.com: Lead remains one with Yanks’ rout in Toronto
MLB.com: Tillman twirls gem, O’s magic number at three
MLB.com: Tigers’ loss to Twins keeps Central race tight
MLB.com: White Sox end Rays’ streak, gain on Tigers
MLB.com: Weaver’s 20th win keeps Angels in the mix

MLB.com: A’s 8, Mariners 2

NTNgod Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:22 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, athletics, orioles, pennant race, rangers, rays, tigers, white sox, yankees

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   1. escabeche Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4248698)
Orioles go positive on run differential! Are we good now?

Who does Showalter start in the WC game assuming Baltimore doesn't catch NYY? Chen has been the ace of the staff all year but in October 2012 if you have to win one game I'm not sure I don't want Chris Tillman out there.
   2. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4248724)
If the A's can hang on, the results of all the relevant teams will be the exact opposite of yesterday. Time off the clock = good ...
   3. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:25 AM (#4248760)
Who does Showalter start in the WC game assuming Baltimore doesn't catch NYY? Chen has been the ace of the staff all year but in October 2012 if you have to win one game I'm not sure I don't want Chris Tillman out there.
Who will be set up to pitch that game?

If the Orioles are still a game down to the Yankees heading into the last series, it will be very interesting to see how Buck uses his rotation. If the WC standings don't change, they'll be almost a lock to make the Play-In Game (their magic number for a playoff spot would be one) but still have an (outside) shot at the division. Has he given any indicate how he'd play that?
   4. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 29, 2012 at 09:27 AM (#4248775)
Random question -- does anyone have any insight on Total Zone vs. BIS? B-R lists both, but I guess they use BIS for calculating WAR. I ask because Adam Jones has a really weird split: He's at -18 runs above average according to BIS, but +13 according to Total Zone. I've watched Jones a lot, and while I don't think he's an elite CF, I have a hard time buying the claim that he's 2 wins below average with the glove. UZR has him at -4, which seems more realistic.
   5. BDC Posted: September 29, 2012 at 09:28 AM (#4248776)
Last night's Rangers loss at the Ballpark was in many ways as frustrating a ballgame as Wednesday night's loss, but was more fun to watch. It's always fun to watch Jered Weaver, even though he beats Texas like clockwork these days. And Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre put on a demonstration of free-swinging devil-may-care RBI production, even if it was too little, too late.

Steady rain in Arlington this morning with a 100% chance of showers all day long. I think they'll get a game in under miserable conditions, though the little kid in me wants a daytime doubleheader tomorrow :)
   6. boteman Posted: September 29, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4248787)
Steel bar remains welded between Orioles and Yankees in the standings. AL East or bust!
   7. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4248797)
I think today is an important day for the AL East. It is probably Boston's best shot at taking a game off the O's (Doubrount v. S. Johnson) while the Yankees have Pettite v. Romero. If Boston steals one and the Yankees win, that would just about end Baltimore's realistic chance at the division. (The Yankees' magic number would be three.)

But if the reverse happens, it's pretty much up for grabs, though I'd still expect the Yankees to take it since I think they're significantly more likely to win two of three (or sweep) their last series than is Baltimore.

Of course, if the steel bar remains welded, that's a fine result for the Yankees--any time you reduce the magic number, it's good--but shifts the pressure towards the Yankees somewhat since Baltimore would seem to be a heavy favorite on Sunday.
   8. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4248800)
Who will be set up to pitch that game?


Tillman pitched last night, so he'd be on for game 162. Assuming that game is important, you gotta figure he'll take his turn. If it's all settled, he'll throw the next one (be it the play-in or LDS game one). Chen's turn is tomorrow, which lines him up for the wild-card game with the off day.
   9. escabeche Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4248802)
I think they're significantly more likely to win two of three (or sweep) their last series than is Baltimore.


Can't disagree, but note also that that last series has a very different complexion if Tampa Bay is already eliminated.
   10. SG Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4248803)
The Orioles have now moved above .500 in the all important Pythagorean standings at 79-78. They could be at 85 Pythagorean wins by the time they're done with the Red Sox.
   11. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4248804)
And STILL nobody has yet officially clinched that first out of five playoff spots. Yep, it's just one of those years in the A.L.: parity reigns supreme.
   12. SG Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4248809)
I think we're going to be seeing more and more parity. Teams are locking up their best young players and will do that even more with the new TV money coming in so the free agent classes are going to get weaker and weaker. Teams are holding onto their prospects a lot more tightly now too, which I'd imagine will only become a bigger trend as it gets harder to buy amateur talent. It'll be interesting to see the ramifications of this over the next few years. Hell, Houston may even be a winning team by 2020.
   13. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4248813)
note also that that last series has a very different complexion if Tampa Bay is already eliminated


Not with old school Joe Maddon at the helm!

It'll be interesting to see the ramifications of this over the next few years.


I hope that one of the ramifications of weak FA classes is that we start seeing some prospect for prospect trades, or at least young player for young player trades -- you know, trade positional surplus to fill positions of need -- just 'cause those are fun to talk about.
   14. Swedish Chef Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4248821)
Teams are locking up their best young players and will do that even more with the new TV money coming in so the free agent classes are going to get weaker and weaker.

Won't oversized contracts given to mediocrities be a good bait for Boras to convince young players not to give up their FA years cheaply?
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4248828)
Won't oversized contracts given to mediocrities be a good bait for Boras to convince young players not to give up their FA years cheaply?

Yes, the cycle will correct. Either fewer pre-FA stars will sign extensions or the size of the extensions will get so large that poorer teams won't be able to keep all their good players, so the FA classes will be replenished.

   16. Loren F. Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4248833)
Won't oversized contracts given to mediocrities be a good bait for Boras to convince young players not to give up their FA years cheaply?

You mean the Yankees might mess things up for everyone else?
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4248835)
You mean the Yankees might mess things up for everyone else?

I think the point is if someone is giving Nick Swisher 4/70, it's going to cost a lot more to buy out arb and FA years.
   18. DKDC Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4248838)
Tillman pitched last night, so he'd be on for game 162. Assuming that game is important, you gotta figure he'll take his turn. If it's all settled, he'll throw the next one (be it the play-in or LDS game one). Chen's turn is tomorrow, which lines him up for the wild-card game with the off day.


I'm sure the Os would love to same Tillman for a 163 or wild card game, but I agree that he is starting 162 unless the Os playoff spot and seeding are set in stone. The only way this is really possible is if they've already clinched the division.

Chen is not pitching tomorrow, Saunders is, so he would be lined up to pitch the play-in game. Chen has been getting extra rest whenever possible.

Hammel is the wild card. He's their best pitcher, and he's working his way back. He threw a simulated game yesterday that seemed to go well, so I'm optimistic he'll be back for the playoffs.
   19. Gamingboy Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4248859)
Agreed on Hammel.

Also, they said on MASN's broadcast that if the division is tied, game 163 for the Division would be in Baltimore.
   20. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 29, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4248864)
I hope that one of the ramifications of weak FA classes is that we start seeing some prospect for prospect trades, or at least young player for young player trades -- you know, trade positional surplus to fill positions of need -- just 'cause those are fun to talk about.


Like Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda?
   21. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 29, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4248879)
Yes, exactly like Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda. It's been a mutual disappointment so far, but it was fun talking about it, and probably will be again before all is said and done. So I guess I left a word out of my post -- meant to say "some MORE prospect for prospect trades..."
   22. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4248927)
I am almost--but not quite--up to my pre-London trip levels of loathing for this Yankee team. Drive in some ####### runs!
   23. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4248931)
Why did the Yanks make a defensive substitution in the 6th inning?
   24. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4248934)
I just put this game on. Evidently they moved Jeter from DH to short so they no longer have the DH. That's a rarity.
   25. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4248935)
I was hoping they'd move teh Rod to short...
   26. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4248937)
Yankees are running themselves out of this game...with a little help from Blue.
   27. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4248940)
Given how many chances the Yankees had to blow this game open, it's tough to feel hard done by the blown call on Gardner.
   28. BDC Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4248944)
Evidently they moved Jeter from DH to short so they no longer have the DH

Girardi was probably reading the BTF thread that speculated on the defensive penalty for DHing, and wanted to try a small-scale experiment on the issue.
   29. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4248956)
That was a terrible, terrible job by the Yankees. If they don't win the AL East--or even advance pass the Play-In--you could show that for the reason why. I cannot say strongly enough how horrible they were, but it also seems like they've played that game two dozen times this season.
   30. Danny Posted: September 29, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4248960)
####### blackouts.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4248973)
That was a terrible, terrible job by the Yankees. If they don't win the AL East--or even advance pass the Play-In--you could show that for the reason why. I cannot say strongly enough how horrible they were, but it also seems like they've played that game two dozen times this season.

You can't play an important game with Jones in RF and Nunez at SS. Just can't do it.

Jeter has to play SS every day, if Nix isn't available. And Jones has to be shelved. He can't even hit LHP. Might as well play Dickerson and get the good D.
   32. boteman Posted: September 29, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4248982)
What happened to Nix?

Also: Matt Moore doing something special in Chicago.
   33. salajander Posted: September 29, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4248989)
Hip flexor injury or something similar
   34. Poster Nutbag Posted: September 29, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4249009)
Tex/LAA happening today, or do we get to add double-headers to the mix now also?
   35. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: September 29, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4249013)
If it hasn't been postponed yet, I think they are committing to playing it tonight. But that's just a guess.
   36. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4249014)
This A's game after the Tottenham win over Man U....I'm too old for this ####.
   37. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4249020)
OAKLAND!
   38. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4249021)
That was...not a great job by Stephen Pryon*. Yikes.

*Well, Shooty probably thought it was, but you know what I mean.
   39. Danny Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4249022)
Wow, amazing!
   40. Squash Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4249031)
90 wins!

What Brandon Moss giveth, Brandon Moss taketh away. He is truly an absolute disaster on the field - not just in a funny way, today seems like the 4,000th time this month he's made an error leading directly on that play to unearned runs, he is an abjectly terrible defender - but he's been huge with the bat. Maybe, just maybe, he should only DH.
   41. Squash Posted: September 29, 2012 at 07:58 PM (#4249032)
Brett Anderson is going to throw a bullpen as soon as Monday (according to Yahoo). Lots of good news for the A's on what looked like was going to be a very bad day.
   42. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 29, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4249035)
I think the former Red Sox players who are on the A's are better than the entirety of the current Red Sox players.
   43. Poster Nutbag Posted: September 29, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4249038)
Doubleheader for tomorrow! What a great final stretch of games!
   44. BDC Posted: September 29, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4249042)
Doubleheader for tomorrow! What a great final stretch of games!

Aw, man, if I didn't have 50 papers to grade … the temptation is great to take them to the Ballpark and grade them there. What's a little mustard on a blue book.
   45. bunyon Posted: September 29, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4249048)
Definitely do that, Bob.
   46. JJ1986 Posted: September 29, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4249056)
Manny Ma-God-O
   47. escabeche Posted: September 29, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4249070)
WHY THE %&*$%&*$ NOT
   48. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4249088)
Cespedes scoring from first on a single was pretty neat

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