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Sunday, September 30, 2012

AL playoff race: September 29, 2012

AL East

BAL 91-67 [18-9 in SEPT]
NYY 91-67 [16-11 in SEPT]

AL Central

DET 85-73 [15-12 in SEPT]
CWS 83-75 [11-16 in SEPT] (2 GB)

AL West

TEX 92-65 [14-12 in SEPT]
OAK 90-68 [16-11 in SEPT] (2.5 GB)

AL Wildcard

BAL 91-67 [18-9 in SEPT]/NYY 91-67 [16-11 in SEPT] (1 GA)
OAK 90-68 [16-11 in SEPT]
LAA 87-70 [15-9 in SEPT] (2.5 GB)

MLB.com: Yankees fall into first-place tie in AL East
MLB.com: Machado’s late HR has O’s tied for first in East
MLB.com: Verlander, Miggy boost Tigers’ cushion to two
MLB.com: Sale’s struggles set tone as Sox fall two back
MLB.com: Moss’ walk-off homer caps epic A’s comeback
MLB.com: Angels lose ground while being rained out

NTNgod Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:12 AM | 77 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, athletics, orioles, pennant race, rangers, tigers, white sox, yankees

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   1. shoelesjoe Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4249133)
Four days left in the season and not a single AL team has so far clinched a playoff spot. Has that ever happened in the division era?
   2. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4249147)
Tampa's still in it too, right? What kind of scenarios do they need to make the playoffs?
   3. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4249151)
The O's really took a risk by promoting Manny Machado so early in his development to a position of major prominence in a stressful pennant race.

He's been pure nails for them over and over throughout these last two months, and it's been yet another inspiring aspect of the O's play. Machado's go-ahead homer was dramatic, of course, but there was a truly Brooks Robinson-esque double play he started earlier in the game that was far more impressive, where he fielded the ball lunging towards the 3B bag, spun around as his momentum carried him well into foul territory, and then unloaded a bullet to second. (Mark Reynolds actually made a pretty impressive catch to dig it out at 1B as well.) Just the sort of play that makes a lover of good defense want to jump up and down.
   4. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:59 AM (#4249152)
Four days left in the season and not a single AL team has so far clinched a playoff spot. Has that ever happened in the division era?


I think if things break just right, 4 of the 5 playoff spots could be clinched today (and Detroit could clinch at least a tie in the Central as well).

Tampa's still in it too, right? What kind of scenarios do they need to make the playoffs?


Win out and get a little help (although if they win out that would include a 3-game sweep of Baltimore, which would be a big help to them).
   5. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4249153)
So the dream scenario (for those without teams involved in the playoff hunt) is:

Sunday: Baltimore, New York, Detroit, and Texas (twice) all lose. Oakland, and Chicago win.
TEX 92-67
BAL 91-68
NYY 91-68
OAK 91-68

DET 85-74
CWS 84-75

Monday: New York, Baltimore, Texas, and Detroit all lose. Oakland and Chicago win.
TEX 92-68
OAK 92-68
BAL 91-69
NYY 91-69

DET 85-75
CWS 85-75

Tuesday: Oakland and Detroit lose. Texas, Baltimore, New York, and Chicago win.
TEX 93-68
OAK 92-69
BAL 92-69
NYY 92-69

CWS 86-75
DET 85-76

Wednesday: Texas and Chicago lose. Oakland, Baltimore, New York, and Detroit win.
TEX 93-69
OAK 93-69
BAL 93-69
NYY 93-69

CWS 86-76
DET 86-76

So there would be a 4-way tie in the AL East and West, with two teams getting the division, and two teams getting the wild-card spots.
Do they play one-game playoffs for the division titles, then the wild-card play-in game?
Or would division/WC determination be based on head-to-head records, so only the wild-card play-in game is needed?

If they need to play a game for the division/wild-card determination, then there would be three games on Thursday (all to determine division winners), and then the wild-card play-in game on Friday.

This could lead to one team playing on the road on Wednesday (game 162), travelling to a new location on Thursday (division/wc determination game), travelling to a new location on Friday (wc play-in game), getting one day off (Saturday) and then playing at home on Sunday. Four different teams, in four different cities, in five days.
   6. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4249154)
I can't formulate a scenario where LAA and TB can remain competitive for a playoff spot and have other teams end up tied at the end of the season.
Texas playing Oakland ruins it for LAA, while TB playing Baltimore means that they'd have to knock them out to get a chance.
   7. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4249157)
I can't formulate a scenario where LAA and TB can remain competitive for a playoff spot and have other teams end up tied at the end of the season.
Texas playing Oakland ruins it for LAA, while TB playing Baltimore means that they'd have to knock them out to get a chance.


If Tampa wins out and NY and Balt lose out, they would all end up 91-71. I think Oakland and LAA could also both still conceivably end up 91-71, although in that case Texas would win the AL West outright.
   8. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:41 AM (#4249163)
Hmm. In Kiko scenario, it's even better.

Tampa, NY, Baltimore end up tied for AL-East, with Oakland and LA ending tied with those three for the 2 wild card spots.
Texas wins a playoff spot, while Chicago and Detroit could also end up tied for the AL Central.

Oh, that's much more of a clusterf*ck.

I guess that's what I'm cheering for!
   9. Walt Davis Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4249165)
I think the scenario in #5 is MLB's wet dream. 3 divisional 1-game playoffs followed by a WC play-in game? What more could they ask for?

Actually my guess is they would play the ALE/ALW divisional 1-gamers on Thurs then the ALC/WC 1-gamers on Fri to build viewers on Fri. Might depend on which AL playoff series needs to start first.

Yes, #7 is the screwy one.
   10. Bob T Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:19 AM (#4249166)
If the Angels and Rangers finished at 91-71, the Rangers will have to forfeit a game they've already won since they have 92 wins.
   11. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:23 AM (#4249179)
I think the scenario in #5 is MLB's wet dream. 3 divisional 1-game playoffs followed by a WC play-in game? What more could they ask for?

About three days worth of heavy rain in Baltimore and Atlanta, beginning on Thursday. Not all dreams have happy endings.
   12. Dan Evensen Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:38 AM (#4249180)
More importantly, #7 gives us 6 teams with over 90 wins. That would tie what I believe is the record -- the same thing happened in the 2002 American League and the 1977 American League.

I didn't go through every season one by one (not enough time), but I think it's the record. It's also the first time that we would have 6 90 win teams with such similar records.

#10: Post #7 would involve the Angels and A's both finishing at 91-71, not the Rangers. Texas would then have the best record in the American League, and five teams would tie at 91-71, with a potential Tigers - White Sox tie still possible.
   13. Gamingboy Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:32 AM (#4249183)
This ####'s gotten real.
   14. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:29 AM (#4249197)
Speaking of heavy rain, it has occasioned a split doubleheader in Arlington today. Apparently the first one in Arlington history – the Rangers don't get rained out, or play home doubleheaders, very often. This cheap-####### move makes me feel better about having to work all day: I'm not missing a long luxurious true doubleheader. But it turns the week into more of an ordeal for both clubs; instead of a getaway game, they now have to play at night and then fly to the coast for games tomorrow.

With Darvish and Holland going (and Jered Weaver resting), the Rangers have as good a chance at a sweep as they could, and a sweep would clinch a division tie for them: maybe the division outright, of Oakland loses. All the same, I have a deep sense that they will be swept, and will become this year's big collapse. But I'm strangely equanimous about that. It was a good year for the Rangers, and I enjoyed it. And I have my 2013 pocket schedule to consult every day between now and April :)
   15. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:31 AM (#4249199)
This ####'s gotten real.

Yep. Although my guess is there don't end up being any one-game divisional or WC playoffs.

But the AL East is awesome. I never imagined the O's would actually hang around this long and they have to have close to a 50/50 shot at the division now.
   16. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4249203)
This cheap-####### move

Ordinarily I'd agree with that comment, but in this case what else could be done when if you scheduled an old fashioned doubleheader there would be thousands of seats with two different ticketholders? You can't just give last night's ticketholders refunds and not expect a huge kickback.
   17. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4249220)
You can't just give last night's ticketholders refunds

Today is the last home game here for '12, so you'd be giving them rain checks for next year, which I admit would cause some grief. OK, in the circs, it's only a semi-cheap### move :)
   18. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:19 AM (#4249221)
My favorite aspect of yesterday's critical game between the Red Sox and Orioles: the guy who started at DH for the Orioles has a slash line of .183/.256/.352, and the guy who started at DH for the Red Sox is at .161/.215/.255. With "designated hitters" like that, they may as well have just let the pitchers hit!
   19. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: September 30, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4249262)
My favorite aspect of yesterday's critical game between the Red Sox and Orioles: the guy who started at DH for the Orioles has a slash line of .183/.256/.352, and the guy who started at DH for the Red Sox is at .161/.215/.255. With "designated hitters" like that, they may as well have just let the pitchers hit!
And yet -- this may say everything about the decisions Buck Showalter has been making -- that 'pathetic' DH managed to go 1 for 2 with a BB last night.
   20. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4249277)
OK. Orioles, Tigers and Rangers win divisions.
A's beat Yankees in the wild card.
Orioles upset Rangers in ALDS.
Tigers beat the A's in the other ALDS.
Tigers beat Orioles in seven.
Tigers beat the Nationals in seven.

Any questions?
   21. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 30, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4249288)
I hope the Rangers win the early game, so the O's get to celebrate a playoff berth in front of the fans.
   22. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4249294)
Just to elaborate (and avoid work a little longer :) it seems that 9/29 Rangers tickets will be good at, and only at, the 9/30 nightcap. So there will be two kinds of fan reactions:

"Yay! I still get to see a Rangers-Angels game this weekend!"

"Rats! I have work/a wedding/Bible study/flight back to Orange County tonight, and now I don't even get a rain check!"

I could be wrong about the raincheck situation, though. Anyway, the Yays will probably outnumber the Ratses, so my "semi-cheap" comment in #17 might be modified to "quarter-cheap."
   23. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4249302)
I think the split admission makes more sense. Assuming sell outs or close to it for both games I think invalidating one game worth of tix is going to piss people off more than make them happy. I ink people would rather see a crucial pennant race game than a May, 2013 game against the Royals.
   24. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 30, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4249303)
Nelson Cruz doesn't hit cheapies.
   25. I Am Not a Number Posted: September 30, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4249320)
Red Sox in September (aka the path of least resistance):

2011: 7-20
2012: 7-18
   26. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4249357)
Have to say that I much prefer MLB tonight to a live game. Plenty of live action on look ins and Williams And Magrane are entertaining.
   27. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4249358)
Bad base running by Cano on the line drive. He just has to freeze and make sure that gets through.
   28. escabeche Posted: September 30, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4249373)
I think if the Orioles don't gain a game on the Yankees today they don't have much chance of winning the division.
   29. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4249379)
What a comeback by the Angels!
   30. McCoy Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4249380)
Angels giving the A's a nice boost.
   31. Danny Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4249381)
I'm so conflicted.
   32. DKDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4249383)
Damn. O's will have to wait to clinch.
   33. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4249384)
I think that Joe Nathan has caught whatever was going around the Rangers' bullpen last October: Final Out Syndrome. Ye Gods.
   34. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4249389)
ugh...the Rangers blow. Well, at least the Orioles now have a chance to have the best record in the AL tonight.
   35. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4249393)
Well, at least the Orioles now have a chance to have the best record in the AL tonight.

Why, that's the dumbest thing ever posted on BB...oh, wait, you're right. Holy cow.
   36. Chris Fluit Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4249397)
Killer double play by Escobar in the 9th.
   37. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4249398)
Angels giving the A's a nice boost.

Well, yes and no. It's nice to have a slim chance at the division but I'd like to get the Angels killed off, too. I would REALLY like the Angels killed off.
   38. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4249400)
So, if you're an A's fan, do you want a sweep in the LAA/Texas series or a 2-1 split? Hard to say.

   39. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4249401)
A's giving themselves a boost with two runs in the first inning. Why do I suddenly have this vertiginous '11-Red-Sox feeling about the '12 Rangers? It must be a Game Six flashback. I need to rub the head of my bust of Adrian Beltre and calm down.
   40. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4249402)
It's not possible to throw a better ball from right field than Reddick just threw.
   41. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4249403)
So, if you're an A's fan, do you want a sweep in the LAA/Texas series or a 2-1 split? Hard to say.

First, I want the A's to win today, of course. Nothing is certain there. After that, I think I'd like Texas to win the nightcap. That still gives the A's a chance at the division and puts them 3 up on the Angels. I'll take that.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4249405)
First, I want the A's to win today, of course. Nothing is certain there. After that, I think I'd like Texas to win the nightcap. That still gives the A's a chance at the division and puts them 3 up on the Angels. I'll take that.

Nah. Gotta root for the Angels. If the Rangers lose and the A's win, you can force a divisional playoff game with a 2-1 series.

If the Rangers win, you need a sweep.
   43. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 30, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4249418)
I need to rub the head of my bust of Adrian Beltre and calm down.

I have a joke about a Dolly Parton bust almost ready to go here, but ###### if I'm not too stressed myself to form it properly.....
   44. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 30, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4249419)
Why, that's the dumbest thing ever posted on BB...oh, wait, you're right. Holy cow.

You all laughed when I said in March that the Orioles would be in a position to win the division and have the best record in the AL...fools!


(ok, I didn't really say that. But at least I didn't say that the Orioles were the #30 organization in baseball with the longest road to travel before they become contenders.)
   45. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4249439)
I have a joke about a Dolly Parton bust almost ready to go here, but ###### if I'm not too stressed myself to form it properly.....
Imagine what it's like on the other side. Watching the Angels fumble around in Texas, I wanted to throw up all over the place... then Torii Hunter and his gigantic balls saved the day. I ####### love Torii Hunter.
   46. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4249441)
If the A's beat the Mariners today I would be fine with and maybe even root for an Angels win tonight. If the A's lose, no ####### way. It's probably greater than 50% the Angels sweep the M's at this point.
   47. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4249445)
I know that's just stress talking. The Angels are going to have to face Iwakuma, who has a 1.54 ERA in three starts against them, and King Felix, who is just Teh Awesome. Meanwhile Oakland's going to be at home, against a Texas team that's going to be pulling its punches to save their guys for the playoffs. Hope is a cruel thing, but it's basically a lie at this point. The Angels basically burned all their opportunities, and now they're down to one thin sliver. Yuck.
   48. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4249447)
####### Mariners. SHOW UP FOR ONCE AGAINST SOMEONE OTHER THAN THE ANGELS.
   49. Danny Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4249448)
Cook pulls a Blevins to get out of the self-inflicted 1st-and-3rd-no-outs jam.
   50. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4249452)
Two runs on ELEVEN hits, vs. two runs on THREE hits.
   51. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4249453)
That was ####### pathetic.
   52. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4249458)
The Angel season finally, mercifully ended just now.
   53. Squash Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4249462)
Maybe Cespedes is actually the MVP.
   54. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4249464)
CORE ####### STRENGTH
   55. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4249466)
Holy crap, the Orioles' Jim Johnson has FIFTY SAVES this season. How did that happen without anybody noticing?
   56. Danny Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4249473)
Risky, but I'm rooting for the Angels now.
   57. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:19 PM (#4249474)
Risky, but I'm rooting for the Angels now.
Well, that should make you happy for the moment.
   58. JJ1986 Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4249476)
If LA wins, we will be down to three days left and no clinched spots.
   59. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4249478)
Risky, but I'm rooting for the Angels now.
Whatever, man. Congrats to your A's. Now go away so I can cry alone.
   60. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:27 PM (#4249481)
The Angel season finally, mercifully ended just now.
Eh?

Say the Angels win tonight (which it appears early on they will)

Then say the Angels sweep the Mariners (never easy, but very possible)

Rays sweep the Orioles -- Angels tie the Orioles, have at least one playoff game
Red Sox sweep the Yankees -- Angels tie the Yankees, have at least one playoff game
Rangers sweep the A's -- Angels win a Wild Card spot outright
Rangers win 2 of 3 from the A's -- Angels tie the A's, have at least one playoff game
A's sweep the Rangers -- Angels tie the Rangers, have at least one playoff game

And if they "just" win 2 of 3 from the Mariners:

Rangers sweep the A's -- Angels tie the A's, have at least one playoff game.
   61. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4249483)
EVERYONE AROUND THE WORLD...

COME ON!

   62. Squash Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4249488)
If LA wins, we will be down to three days left and no clinched spots.

With the A's playing the Rangers tomorrow one of them has to clinch a spot, correct? Whoever wins would clinch at least the second wild card.
   63. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:40 PM (#4249492)
Wouldn't the A's only clinch a playoff with the Angels for the second WC?
   64. BDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:40 PM (#4249493)
The Rangers are falling apart like the wonderful one-hoss shay.
   65. JJ1986 Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4249495)
With the A's playing the Rangers tomorrow one of them has to clinch a spot, correct? Whoever wins would clinch at least the second wild card.


Not if the A's win. Until the Angels lose one more time, the Rangers or A's need to get to 93 wins. Someone will clinch a spot by Tuesday.
   66. DKDC Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4249496)
An As win tomorrow would not clinch an outright wild card spot.
   67. Yardape Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4249503)
Mike Napoli homers to bring the Rangers within one. The gift that keeps on giving for the Angels.
   68. Squash Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4249504)
Wouldn't the A's only clinch a playoff with the Angels for the second WC?

Got it, that's what I was thinking.
   69. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:05 PM (#4249511)
OK, the ultimate doomsday scenario is no longer possible, due to the A's and Rangers playing. Assuming an Angels win tonight, the best we can hope for is the Yankees, Orioles, Angels, and either A's or Rangers (but not both) all with 92 wins. That would yield 2 playoffs to determine division winners, then a 3 team scrum for the WC. If the latter were to happen, how would they handle it?

   70. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4249517)
And Mike Napoli again.
   71. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4249518)
It's never easy, is it?
   72. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4249519)
Divisional playoffs on Thursday, two teams of the three remaining play on Friday, and the winner of that plays the third team in the Wild Card Game on Saturday.
   73. rr Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4249520)
Man, oh, man. What a trade.
   74. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4249544)
Holy ####! Napoli!!
   75. Spivey Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4249548)
NEVER BUTTON THE TOP BUTTON
   76. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4249551)
####### FUCK #### FUCKITY ####.
   77. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 30, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4249577)
The Rangers are falling apart like the wonderful one-hoss shay.


It's not the Rangers who are falling apart, it's Derek Holland. It sure was a great idea to hurry up and sign him to a long-term deal.

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