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Saturday, September 17, 2011

AL Wildcard race: September 16, 2011

BOS 87-63 [4-11 in SEPT]
TBR 83-67 [9-6 in SEPT] (4 GB)

MLB.com: Beckett strong as Boston pads Wild Card lead

Boosted by the return of Josh Beckett from a sprained right ankle, Boston staved off those pesky Rays, 4-3, on Friday night.

Instead of seeing their Wild Card lead slimmed to two games, the Sox instead opened it back up to four with 12 left to play. And they snapped a six-game losing streak against the Rays, in which they had been outscored, 41-12.

NTNgod Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:22 AM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: game recaps, rays, red sox

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   1. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:42 AM (#3927790)
I told you so, blah blah.

They're now closer to the Yankees than the Rays are to them.

It's... wait for it... over.
   2. robinred Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#3927793)
I never really thought Boston was in serious trouble, either. TB has to win the next two now.

And just for my two favorite Red Sox fans: tonight's game was a heck of a game. Not as good as one that was tied on two solo HRs in the 9th and won in the 11th, but a good game nonetheless.
   3. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:50 AM (#3927799)
Unlike the win on Tuesday, this one feels very good. Not only the Rays losing but seeing Beckett look good was huge.

I'm not there yet but I feel a hell of a lot better. Of course if we lose tomorrow I'll be back to my condo in Panicville.
   4. tfbg9 Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:51 AM (#3927801)
You were trolling, lardas$.
It ain't over. Big win obviously.
   5. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:55 AM (#3927803)
When the Sox start to win more than 1 game in 3, then you all can call out the Pants-pissers. And yes, you are welcome to remember this tomorrow. I hope to be called out tomorrow.
   6. robinred Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:03 AM (#3927814)
When the Sox start to win more than 1 game in 3, then you all can call out the Pants-pissers.


I agree it is not totally over. But as MCOA said/showed, tonight's game was huge for your team, statistically, and, I would think, psychologically.
   7. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:06 AM (#3927815)
And just for my two favorite Red Sox fans: tonight's game was a heck of a game. Not as good as one that was tied on two solo HRs in the 9th and won in the 11th, but a good game nonetheless.


I'm surprised you went back to this well.
   8. robinred Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:11 AM (#3927819)
I'm surprised you went back to this well.


Hey, it worked for you. Call it a moment of weakness. And it was mostly just a joke, but tonight's game was a good one. Caught the last three innings.
   9. tfbg9 Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:24 AM (#3927823)
Q: You know how we know last night's BOS-TB game was a big game?

A:BECAUSE BECKETT WAS HUGE!
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 05:03 AM (#3927837)
Beckett gave up three runs, threw so many pitches that he could only complete six innings, and coughed the lead up to Tampa twice.

I thought he had good stuff and pitched well, but three runs in only six innings is not big clutch pitching. Tonight's clutch pitchers were the bullpen, Aceves and Bard and Papelbon hanging onto that one-run lead.
   11. boteman Posted: September 17, 2011 at 10:02 AM (#3927892)
Going in to last night's game Big Game James was 1-7 at Fenway, and he continued that expectancy.

I had a social function last night that I was obligated to attend, but as I drove there I heard the first pitch of the game bunted, Beckett's inability to field it cleanly, and thought that would be telling for the outcome of the game. The highlights proved it was quite a game that I should not have missed.

I honestly don't think this is over until the Rays are mathematically eliminated. They have a lot of fight left in them from the appearances. Or as Harold Reynolds puts it, "They're playing with house money."
   12. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: September 17, 2011 at 11:29 AM (#3927897)
Or as Harold Reynolds puts it, "They're playing with house money."

The Rays are always playing with house money. The Yankees and the Red Sox are always the house. The standings have nothing to do with this.
   13. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: September 17, 2011 at 12:18 PM (#3927902)
Beckett gave up three runs, threw so many pitches that he could only complete six innings, and coughed the lead up to Tampa twice.

He wasn't as sharp as he usually is, but his performance was light-years better than the garbage being turned in by the rest of the staff lately.
   14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 12:34 PM (#3927905)
Of course. I'm just saying, it doesn't go on Beckett's big clutch game resume. It was the sort of game you expect as the minimum from your best pitcher.
   15. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2011 at 12:42 PM (#3927908)
I dunno, that's a little strict, I'd say, Matt. Your best pitcher in his first return from injury in a game that was indeed a damned big game?
   16. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 12:48 PM (#3927911)
If he was pitching through pain, I'd change my mind about it. He looked totally fit.
   17. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 12:48 PM (#3927912)
I thought Matt's comment in #10 was a joke. It wasn't? Wow.
   18. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 17, 2011 at 12:51 PM (#3927914)
Yesterdays game was similar to game six in 2008, not great by Beckett but considering the circumstances impressive enough.
   19. bunyon Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:01 PM (#3927919)
Yeah, it was a good game. I thought when Longoria caught the liner and landed on the bag for a double play that it might set the stage for a comeback. But, alas, not to be.

They Rays aren't quite dead. But Eric Idle is walking toward them with a club.
   20. ray james Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:09 PM (#3927923)
If he was pitching through pain, I'd change my mind about it. He looked totally fit.


Not on the bunt he didn't. He limped over to get it. And he was favoring his ankle when he pivoted on throws to first too. That's why I think Kotchman stole. He could tell Beckett wasn't going to throw over.
   21. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:13 PM (#3927926)
If that's the case, I take it all back. Pitching well enough while still hurting is pretty huge.

6 IP and 3 R is good enough to lose about half the time - it's like a 95 RA+ in today's environment. I think of clutch pitching as shutting down the other club, not just keeping your team in the game.

Pitching hurt changes that, certainly.
   22. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:19 PM (#3927932)
That was an awful game for anyone other than Red Sox fans. They've official passed over into Yankeedome. It is bad enough that the Yankees and Red Sox have every other advantage but then the umpire has to be on their side as well. Other teams have no chance. I hate baseball.
   23. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:29 PM (#3927941)
What the hell are you talking about, Gaelan? The Damon HBP? He swung at the ball.
   24. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:32 PM (#3927947)
A couple of those righthand outside pitches against the Rays were balls... but then, a couple of those lefthand inside pitches against the Rays were strikes.
   25. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:40 PM (#3927952)
It looked to me like Damon held up, but I think Gonzalez' K in the 1st was pretty much the same story. The 3B ump had a generous strike call.

The called third strike to Upton was the only moment in the game where it looked like the ump screwed it up. That matters, in a one-run game, but it's hard for me to make a lot of it.
   26. Greg (U)K Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:43 PM (#3927959)
I only saw the condensed game*, but the strikeout calls didn't seem outrageous. If you're going to look at borderline pitches with 2 strikes that's going to happen to you. BJ Upton's looked like a pretty clear strike to me.

I just saw a quick reply but it seemed like Damon might have held up. That being said it was close enough that I don't think you can complain too much about a call like that going against you. The oddity of it just makes it stand out.

How many steals did the Rays have? None of them looked particularly close either.

*Condensed games are a godsend for Beckett starts.

EDIT: whoops! It seems like the lack of replays did me in. I'll bow to better wisdom and assume you're all right about the Upton call.
   27. dave h Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:50 PM (#3927964)
There is no rule for what constitutes a swing, so all you can ask from the umpire is that he be consistent, and that seemed to be the case last night.

There was definitely a wide strike zone (or it may have just been a generous outside edge), but again that didn't look slanted one way or the other. Obviously the two questionable strike calls were a bigger deal to the Rays because they were on 3-2 counts with runners on.
   28. ray james Posted: September 17, 2011 at 01:56 PM (#3927968)
I just saw a quick reply but it seemed like Damon might have held up.


Well, he didn't break his wrists but he did drag the barrel of the bat across the plate. Most umpires call that. And it didn't just barely do it either. The entire bat crossed the plate. His wrists were a good foot in front of the plate on replay. It was a good call by the ump.
   29. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:01 PM (#3927969)
6 IP and 3 R is good enough to lose about half the time - it's like a 95 RA+ in today's environment.


Eh not really. The AL is averaging 4.44 r/g. Add in a 10% bump for Fenway, and you're at about 109 RA+.

And if you are going to do this for single games, you should really account for the fact that the Rays are an above average offensive team as well.

Anyways, it's good enough to lose less than half the time, especially when you have the best offense in the league on your side.
   30. Dan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:10 PM (#3927976)
I said this in the game thread, and I'll repeat it here: Upton gets screwed over on called strike 3 on pitches off the plate like that all the time. Umpires clearly do not like him. Lassus said that he and his brother are both huge jerks to the umpires, but even so it seems pretty lame that it affects games like that. Umpires shouldn't be so petty.

That called strike 3 was really the only notably bad call of the game.
   31. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:20 PM (#3927989)
Obviously the two questionable strike calls were a bigger deal to the Rays because they were on 3-2 counts with runners on.


I was referring to this, not Damon. And they weren't questionable they were a mile outside. As far outside as it is possible to call a strike and not be fired. What's the WPA on turning a walk into a strikeout with men on base in a one run game. Now do it twice. Now imagine a thread of fanboys who don't even notice it happened.
   32. Greg (U)K Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:26 PM (#3927994)
I was referring to this, not Damon. And they weren't questionable they were a mile outside. As far outside as it is possible to call a strike and not be fired. What's the WPA on turning a walk into a strikeout with men on base in a one run game. Now do it twice. Now imagine a thread of fanboys who don't even notice it happened.

Well to be fair I'm the one who said it actually WAS a strike (only to be corrected by Red Sox fans) and I ####### hate the Red Sox. So I'm going to ask you to correct your statement to "Now imagine a thread with a complete moron who didn't even notice it happened".
   33. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:27 PM (#3927995)
6 IP and 3 R is good enough to lose about half the time - it's like a 95 RA+ in today's environment.


Did a play index check, in 2011 when teams get exactly 6IP 3R allowed from their starter they are 95-127 this year. In Fenway that turns around to be 6-3.
   34. dave h Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:40 PM (#3928003)
And they weren't questionable they were a mile outside...Now imagine a thread of fanboys


Pot, meet kettle.
   35. dave h Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:42 PM (#3928006)
Also, does anyone else think that the rule should be changed so that if the bat interferes with a fielder, it should be treated the same as if a runner did it? It wouldn't have changed the outcome of Thursday's game of course, it just brings up something that has always bothered me.
   36. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:44 PM (#3928007)
That was an awful game for anyone other than Red Sox fans. They've official passed over into Yankeedome. It is bad enough that the Yankees and Red Sox have every other advantage but then the umpire has to be on their side as well. Other teams have no chance. I hate baseball.


Pitchfx only shows one horrible strike call. The one everyone is talking about. Other than that, he took away the bottom of the strike zone from everyone.
   37. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 02:50 PM (#3928010)

Pitchfx only shows one horrible strike call. The one everyone is talking about. Other than that, he took away the bottom of the strike zone from everyone.


There were at least two. The other was a lefthanded batter. It might have been a 3-1 count. There were others as well but those were the only two the NESN producers showed the box.
   38. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#3928036)
I was referring to this, not Damon. And they weren't questionable they were a mile outside. As far outside as it is possible to call a strike and not be fired. What's the WPA on turning a walk into a strikeout with men on base in a one run game. Now do it twice. Now imagine a thread of fanboys who don't even notice it happened.


I didn't see the game (other than the bottom of the 9th) but I concur with Gaelan's general observations of the Red Sox fanboys. I wouldn't have believed it a couple weeks ago, but then I started reading some of the threads and it's really hard to believe what goes on.
   39. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:43 PM (#3928039)
We're still confused about the concept of "clutch" in baseball? What?
   40. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 03:59 PM (#3928050)
There were at least two. The other was a lefthanded batter. It might have been a 3-1 count.


Are you thinking of the 3-1 pitch to Joyce in the 4th?

NESN replay showed it clearly wide of the strike zone on the outside.

Damon was on 2nd, so it should have been 2 on, 1 out.

Joyce struck out swinging on the next pitch.

Wasn't a good strike call at all, to be sure, but I'm not sure how important it was, considering the Rays kept spitting the bit with RiSP all night anyways ...
   41. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:02 PM (#3928051)
I concur with Gaelan's general observations of the Red Sox fanboys


I didn't follow all the game in-thread. I did say "dammmmmn...ump" when I first noticed he wasn't calling low strikes. My main beef with Red Sox fanboyism this morning is the whole "Let's catch up with the Yanks now that the Rays are out of the way! You know the Rays are gonna want to play spoiler!"

I consider tonight to be almost as much-win as last night was. I know Ray disagrees of course. I do acknowledge the Sox have the easier last 10 games, but I assure everyone that whoever is pitching the first three games of the Baltimore series is going to throw RSN right back into a panic.
   42. Dale Sams Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:06 PM (#3928054)
On the radio they were talking about Jaso.

I completly admit that every close call I heard on the radio (Such as the Damon/Bard call) I said out loud, \"#### I'll take it.". But I don't pretend stuff doesn't happen when I see it. And it does even out. And it's not like the Rays never had a chance ala' Gregg.
   43. tfbg9 Posted: September 17, 2011 at 04:50 PM (#3928068)
The two earned runs on Beckett came on a seriously cheap HR.
He went 6 and K'd 7, BB'ing just one.
The pressure was on. He was pretty damn rock-solid when the team needed it.
All this, and still not 100%...I'd say the kid was huge.

Watch him get lit-up next time out, because I had to open my big mouth! ;-)
edit-clarity
   44. dave h Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:16 PM (#3928164)
I consider tonight to be almost as much-win as last night was.


We don't need to rehash the same argument again, but it's only really a must-win for the Rays. Even the most die hard PPers here would presumably agree that 5 up with 11 to play, having won 2 in a row, is over, right?

As for the calls - the ump made two bad calls on balls and strikes. There's no point pretending that he didn't, but there's also no need to blow them out of proportion.
   45. FancyPantsHandle glistening with foreign substance Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3928239)
I completly admit that every close call I heard on the radio (Such as the Damon/Bard call) I said out loud, \"#### I'll take it.". But I don't pretend stuff doesn't happen when I see it. And it does even out. And it's not like the Rays never had a chance ala' Gregg.


Right. You win some, you lose some, and until our robot overlords get here, you are just going to have to deal with that.
Wake me up when the Sox are even from the 2 strike calls from Mariano, which both were literally 10 inches outside, with the bases loaded to end the game. Nothing that happened last night was close to being as egregious as that.
   46. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#3928255)
We don't need to rehash the same argument again, but it's only really a must-win for the Rays. Even the most die hard PPers here would presumably agree that 5 up with 11 to play, having won 2 in a row, is over, right?


No! In that case the Rays would have the Sox right where they want them!
   47. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:00 PM (#3928258)
The Red Sox have already done what they needed to do this series: win one game. There is no "race." They are up 4 with 12 to play.
   48. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#3928262)
Coolstandings has the Sox' chances to make the playoffs at 96%. BP's odds have it at 98%.

At some point people are going to have to reconnect with the mother ship here.
   49. Gaelan Posted: September 17, 2011 at 09:27 PM (#3928291)

As for the calls - the ump made two bad calls on balls and strikes. There's no point pretending that he didn't, but there's also no need to blow them out of proportion.


The point is these things never even out. For years the Yankees have gotten every close call. Now the Red Sox have ascended to yankeedome which means they also get every close call. If they meet in the playoffs the space-time continuum will implode in the meantime every other team is playing against a stacked deck.

Note that every close call has gone to the Red Sox in this game too. Well I only watched one inning but there were two close calls and they both went the Red Sox way. I'm shocked. If I was a Ray player with a long term contract I'd just say to the media that we are just going through the motions but we all know that we aren't going to get the close calls and we're not good enough to beat the Red Sox and the umpires at the same time.
   50. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 17, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#3928433)
Coolstandings has the Sox' chances to make the playoffs at 96%. BP's odds have it at 98%.


Excellent, I was worried there might be a requirement that we win more than one out of every four games.
   51. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 11:21 PM (#3928470)
Excellent, I was worried there might be a requirement that we win more than one out of every four games.


Indeed there is not.

I grant it would help if we had a real manager. Sac bunting in the third inning with runner on second and no outs. Eek.
   52. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 17, 2011 at 11:28 PM (#3928483)
Deleted for pointless ##########.
   53. Ray (RDP) Posted: September 17, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#3928485)
Well, they lost. Now it's over, and they're done. How could they ever hold on to a 3 game lead with 11 to play?
   54. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: September 17, 2011 at 11:32 PM (#3928488)
Exactly, glad to see you on board.

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