verrrrry nice suicide squeeze by the O's in the 9th gives the Yankees home field.

Montero needs to play both games tomorrow. Catch one, DH the other.

Garcia probably clinches a playoff start.

The Sox arn't even going to reach 90 wins. Heads are gonna roll.

It's over. It's always been over.™ Take one of these and one of these and call the emergency ward on Monday morning.

verrrrry nice suicide squeeze by the O's in the 9th gives the Yankees home field.

The O's "Contender Destruction Tour" continues...

2 of 3 from Tigers so far this weekend
3 of 4 from Red Sox before that
2 of 3 from Angels before that
2 of 3 from Rays before that
took last 2 from Yankees before that (split series overall)

They dropped a series to the Jays in that span; Toronto wasn't a contender, after all.

5 games left, magic number of 4... I just can't even see 2 wins out of 5 for the Red Sox, and even then they'd need help to get to a playoff game.

Can't wait for the thread where we all debate whether the Mets collapse in 2007 was greater than the 2011 Red Sox collapse (or the 1995 Angels collapse, etc., etc., etc.).

I think Theo becomes the Cubs GM by November 1.

[6] Except, frankly, the Rays are trying to give this one right back. Toronto had to hand them the game today, Romero should have shut them out on about 85 pitches. Even with the Yankees rotating and resting the regulars in Tampa next week, I don't see the Rays taking that series.

I think we are going to see a playoff in Tampa.

I think this is the biggest collapse of the bunch. Tampa has tried to give this away and the Sox keep one upping them. Tampa hasn't taken this, the Sox have just blown it.

Except, frankly, the Rays are trying to give this one right back. Toronto had to hand them the game today, Romero should have shut them out on about 85 pitches. Even with the Yankees rotating and resting the regulars in Tampa next week, I don't see the Rays taking that series.

They've got the rotation lined-up right, though. Shields, Hellickson and Price.

I think they take 2 of 3 from the Yanks.

I think Theo becomes the Cubs GM by November 1.

Is his contract up? Because I can't see him getting fired over this.

They'll probably just fire the pitching coach.

Why would the Cubs want to hire a guy who spent ~$300M on Lackey, Crawford, Jenks, Cameron, etc. over the last 2 off seasons as their GM?

Additionally, Theo has another year on his contract, and I doubt he'd want the end of his legacy in Boston to be the biggest collapse in September history.

They'll probably just fire the pitching coach.

It's getting harder and harder to envision Francona surviving this mess. I think Theo at least gets to see out his current contract though, unless they decide they want someone else controlling their checkbook this offseason after the spectacular failures in free agency lately.

I don't see the Rays taking that series.

The Yanks will roll over like French Surrender Monkeys.

I think this is the biggest collapse of the bunch. Tampa has tried to give this away and the Sox keep one upping them. Tampa hasn't taken this, the Sox have just blown it.

Yeah. A lot of the other "collapses" are really the pursuing teams going on insanely hot runs. This race has been the Red Sox turning into the 1962 Mets for a month, while the Rays have played ~.500 ball.

The Red Sox have now gone 5-17 in September. They have literally not won consecutive games in 4 weeks now.

The Rays are acting like the '64 Reds, who came all the way from 8 1/2 back on September 16th to take a 1 game lead on the 27th, only to lose 4 out of their last five and get eliminated on the last day by losing 10 to 0 at home to the ####### Phillies.

The Rays are acting like the '64 Reds, who came all the way from 8 1/2 back on September 16th to take a 1 game lead on the 27th, only to lose 4 out of their last five and get eliminated on the last day by losing 10 to 0 at home to the ####### Phillies.

Which obviously means that the Angels are going to win the World Series!

Split tomorrow and then two of three in Baltimore. How hard can that be?

Split tomorrow and then two of three in Baltimore. How hard can that be?

Based on the last four weeks, pretty ####### hard.

Split tomorrow and then two of three in Baltimore. How hard can that be?

I think the Yankees are smelling sweep. They have a vested interest in Boston and TB playing hard all the way.

They should feast on Wakefield/Lackey.

They have a vested interest in Boston and TB playing hard all the way.

Not that I can tell, other than spite. They by definition can't play either Boston or TB in the first round, so they just make Texas or Detroit's path easier.

I think the Yankees are smelling sweep.

Yeah, but we're going to see a "House Money Lineup" for 1 of the games tomorrow, that ought to give the Sox a fighting chance, regardless of who they're pitching ...

Yeah, but we're going to see a "House Money Lineup" for 1 of the games tomorrow, that ought to give the Sox a fighting chance, regardless of who they're pitching ...

Lackey and Wakefield can easily out-suck any house money lineup.

Lackey and Wakefield can easily out-suck any house money lineup.

So can AJ Burnett ...

NOW the Angels are 2.5 back.

So can AJ Burnett ...

Burnett had a quality start about 11 days ago.

Wakefield hasn't had one in six weeks, Lackey hasn't had one in 5 weeks.

When was the last time the Red Sox got a quality start from anyone? 18 games ago or so?

Just finished watching a replay of the Sox - Yankees game on Fox. Holy ####, you couldn't burn the stupid that was spouted during that telecast off with a ####### blow torch as hot as the center of the Sun.

When was the last time the Red Sox got a quality start from anyone? 18 games ago or so?

It was eight days ago. The last one before that was ten days earlier. Their starters have pitched into the eighth three times since July, and all three were losses.

Just finished watching a replay of the Sox - Yankees game on Fox. Holy ####, you couldn't burn the stupid that was spouted during that telecast off with a ####### blow torch as hot as the center of the Sun.

I muted it after the 2nd inning. I've never watched a game muted; normally I can tune out the broadcasters if they're awful and just focus on the game. Today they were so bad that simply could not.

Pretty amazing that FOX managed to come up with a broadcast even worse than Joe Buck.

When was the last time the Red Sox got a quality start from anyone? 18 games ago or so?

It was eight days ago. The last one before that was ten days earlier. Their starters have pitched into the eighth three times since July, and all three were losses.

The median start for the Red Sox in September is 5 IP, 5 R.

Red Sox starters in September have thrown 103 innings (under 5 per game) and allowed 94 runs.

I'm honestly stunned their collective ERA is below 9.00

The fact that the average is slightly better than the median tells the story, I think. The average Red Sox start in September is slightly better than the representative typical start. What's been awful haven't been the full-on disasters - only Lester today and Miller and Lackey earlier in the month really qualify as disaster starts. It's been the day in, day out 3 IP / 4 R, 5 IP / 5 R, 6 IP / 5 R performances. The consistency of their shittiness is something to behold.

Pretty amazing that FOX managed to come up with a broadcast even worse than Joe Buck.

There were multiple times when I was outright confused as to what was being said...I'm used to disagreeing with what a broadcaster says on air, or thinking them stupid or simply bad at their job...but on more than one occasion this afternoon, I actually had no idea what the words coming from the TV meant...just non-nonsensical gibberish at times....and then the end of the game...final pitch actually seemed to take them by surprise...

On a slightly humorous note (although I am sure there are a few BTF Boston fans who may not think so) ESPN the mag cover this week shows a hand with mock Bruin, Patriot, Celtic and Red Sox rings and says: WELCOME TO BOSTON, LOOZAH! Four Teams. Seven Titles. Ten Years. Do the Math.

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/espn-the-magazine/

The story is titled, "Why Boston is Better than You."

___

I have steadily predicted that Boston will hold on. I am staying with that, but I thought they would split with Baltimore and win today.

Jerome Williams, who was playing independent league ball in June, is now 4-0 with a 2.95 ERA, and if the Angels buck the odds and play in a one-game playoff, with the way the rotation is shaking out, he would start it. Torii Hunter, who I thought was about done, is hitting .326 with 10 HR and 31 RBI since 8/1.

I was at the Angels-A's game today, my first time at Angel Stadium. I must say, the crowds are every bit as uninvested as advertised. Also, holy ####, they flash the "make some noise" thing a ton. Like 6 times in one at-bat. The crowd cheers wildly for 10 seconds, then goes back to beach balls, the wave, and OMG did you see what Lauren was wearing?!

I'm sure there are devoted fans, and the stadium and atmosphere were perfectly pleasant, but it was more like watching a game outside on a huge TV than live.

Did Francona burn out the staff? I thought the rotation was beset with injuries.

If a team has its talent base depleted due to players getting hurt I don't know how you can hang that around the manager. Is the guy supposed to spin straw into gold?

Red Sox OPS in Sept: 4th-best in the majors.

Usually that would guarantee you a bunch of wins. Unless your pitching stinks AND you lose every close game you play.

There's a couple problems. Francona and Epstein have stuck with guys who can't pitch when there was a chance to start a guy who might not suck (Aceves).

The bigger issue, though, is that some of what looks like pitching is actually defense. In the last two or three weeks, the Red Sox have been making basic mistakes in the field at a really embarrassing rate. Yesterday's second inning was September in a microcosm. Lester got ARod to ground out, then Cano singled on a bouncing ball through the infield and Swisher walked. With runners on first and second, Andruw Jones hit a soft bouncer to the SS-3B hole. Scutaro ranges to play it and looks to third, but Mike Aviles (the 3B) is standing fifteen feet from the base, looking at Scutaro blankly, and not moving. So Scutaro turns and tries for the force at second, but it's too late, bases loaded one out when it should be 1st and 2nd, two out. Jesus Montero rips a single to left, drives in a run and reloads the bases. Then Russ Martin hits a bloop to left that Crawford slides under and ganks off his glove, scoring two more. At this point, when there should have been three out, Lester leaves a fastball over the plate and Jeter homers to break the game open.

The Red Sox have committed actual scorebook errors in the last couple weeks at a rate about three times higher than they'd been committing miscues in the first five months of the season, and they've been making probably even more dumb mental errors like Aviles'. And it hasn't been just one or two guys - pretty much everyone on the club other than Ellsbury has gotten into the act at one time or another.

In the previous Sox loss, to the Orioles at home, the Orioles tied the game against Beckett and put runners on second and third with one out in the 8th, and Vlad Guerrero up. The Sox brought in Alfredo Aceves, and he was instructed to pitch around Vladdy, throw junk and hope he chases, but walk him to load the bases and set up the force if he won't chase. Aceves throws two fastballs over the plate, Guerrero takes the first and lines the second into center to win the game. That was the event - reported in the papers the next day that Aceves has disregarded the manager's instructions - where I became reasonably convinced that Francona had lost the clubhouse. (And also that Aceves is a pinhead, but the manager's job is to know how to get everyone, even pinheads, to do their jobs.)

It's pretty much unmistakeable on a game-to-game level that the club is choking, and for that I blame Francona. They've been embarrassing to watch. The pitching injuries should have cost the team a bunch of games in September, but it never should have been enough to put them in position to lose the Wild Card. That's the part where they've also choked. The job of a manager is to get them out of that tailspin, and Francona's been entirely ineffectual. I think that when a ballclub shows up unprepared to play, day after day, the buck has to stop with the manager.

And, again, this is conditional. The Sox were good enough for five months that they still have a cushion, and they could still turn it around. If they do, I'll credit Francona. But until then, he's got to be managing with his job on the line.

Matt

If it was almost any other Red Sox poster I would have attributed the Francona observations to hysteria.

But your credibility causes me to pause about Terry's role, or lack of a role, in the current state of the Sox.

I identify with what you are writing since the Brewers of 2008 were very similar under Yost though there it was almost all centered on the bullpen and Ned's complete inability to manage it effectively unless CC pitched 8 or 9 innings

I was at the Angels-A's game today, my first time at Angel Stadium. I must say, the crowds are every bit as uninvested as advertised.

I was there earlier this year and there was a constant stream of people walking up and down the aisle. It was awful.

Matt

If it was almost any other Red Sox poster I would have attributed the Francona observations to hysteria.

But your credibility causes me to pause about Terry's role, or lack of a role, in the current state of the Sox.

That post impressed me, too, as I've always just thought of Francona as a manager of limited intellectual capacity, but one whose strength lay in motivation.

OTOH, when you've got a rotation that averages five pitiful innings a night, it's also not hard to imagine that that sort of poison doesn't work its way through the roster without any help from Francona.

First, having such predictable AAA-level performance from the starters puts way too much pressure (and mileage) on the bullpen to be perfect for the remaining 4+ innings.

Which in turn puts too much pressure on the offense to overachieve every night, often against some of the best pitchers in the league. Even the Red Sox can't keep up that sort of performance level forever.

And it's not hard to see this pressure also affecting the defense, both in mental and physical ways.

You could look at this as a whole, meaning the 5 win month, ascribe it to choking, and blame Francona for it. And the way you (Matt) present the case, it seems at least plausible. But to be honest, I don't think that the 1998 Yankees could have done all that much better with a rotation that's been performing like Boston's has been lately. It's partly bad luck (Buchholz), partly bad hiring decisions (Lackey and Dice-K), partly just plain overwork (the bullpen), partly a combination of randomness and pressure (Beckett and Lester), and maybe a touch of sentimentality and desperation thrown in (Wakefield). And sometimes the talent is just so downright nonexistent (Miller) that you have to wonder what the hell he's even doing in a Major League uniform, let alone starting for one of the best teams in baseball. Add it all up, though, and I have a hard time blaming too much of this on the manager.

And BTW even though I'm obviously a Yankee fan, this sort of concern was exactly what I was voicing about the Yankees at the start of the year. It just happens that through a combination of good scouting and good luck, the Yankees have been able to fill the bottom spots in their rotation with enough quality (Colon and Garcia) that they've been able to keep their bullpen relatively fresh for the stretch run. And though obviously part of me is enjoying the Red Sox's misery immensely, the better half of me was really wishing for a down to the wire finish that didn't involve the Rays or the Angels.

That post impressed me, too, as I've always just thought of Francona as a manager of limited intellectual capacity, but one whose strength lay in motivation.

For what it's worth, I think Francona's been a perfectly cromulent manager for years. I don't think that he's an idiot or a bad leader, and I think he did a very good job in 2004, for instance. But almost all managers have expiration dates, and all managers who can easily be categorized as "players manager" or "redass" have expiration dates. Only the guys who can straddle that line can be truly great. Francona's a players manager, and at some point he was likely to lose his effectiveness, his authority. I think it's happened this September, and he's only got a week to get it back.

To the larger point, I don't mean to disregard how poor the pitching has been, and how poor the Sox have been in terms of luck / winning close games. No manager in the world could have won the AL East with the pitching staff that injuries and Theo Epstein gave Francona for the stretch run. The majority of the Red Sox struggles should be blamed not on the manager, but on injuries, on the poor job Epstein did of acquiring SP depth, and the bad luck of run distribution in the last month. But I think that a manager doesn't have to be entirely to blame for him to be worth blaming.

In terms of your analysis, I think you're making a mistake when you blame the bad run prevention numbers entirely on the pitching staff. It's defense, too, and there is reasonably objective evidence (the spike in errors) and reasonable subjective evidence (as any Sox fan whether the team has been playing smart baseball in the field) that the defense has been costing the Red Sox a whole lot of runs. They have been more mental and physical screwups in the field the last three weeks than I can remember at any other time in my life as a fan. And that pattern of mental and physical errors - and recently, evidence of simple insubordination on the field - has to be on the manager.

Burnett had a quality start about 11 days ago.

Wakefield hasn't had one in six weeks, Lackey hasn't had one in 5 weeks.

No, my date's uglier than your date.

And also that Aceves is a pinhead...

If Aceves wasn't a pinhead, he'd still be pitching for the Yankees.

The defense doesn't only cost runs directly, it also blows out the pitching staff. With good defense yesterday, Lester would have lasted 5-6 innings, with good defense last (Tuesday?) Bedard would have lasted 5 innings and with good defense last Sunday Wake would have lasted 6 innings for 3-4 runs rather than 5 innings for 6 runs. The pitching has been mediocre, but without the bad defense they're 5 games up currently and about to clinch.

That's Theo and Francona; given the 2010 disaster (Cameron getting old, Beltre totaling all the left fielders) I think Theo's metrics on defense don't work anything like as well as he thinks they do.

Beltre totaling all the left fielders) I think Theo's metrics on defense don't work anything like as well as he thinks they do.

I'm pretty sure there's not a metric that covers '3B covers TOO much ground"

The job of a manager is to get them out of that tailspin, and Francona's been entirely ineffectual

Then there's Beckett pitching like an insufferable brat through the years (Haven't actually seen it this year)

Papelbon pitching to Vlad in 2009 like Aceves did. Varitek: "He's a fastball pitcher".

So we know that Tito isn't so smart on the field, and if he's been unable to get everyone on the same page off the field...what exactly is he good for?

I have long suspected this team felt like '25 players...75 cars', but as long as they were winning, who cares?

To the larger point, I don't mean to disregard how poor the pitching has been, and how poor the Sox have been in terms of luck / winning close games. No manager in the world could have won the AL East with the pitching staff that injuries and Theo Epstein gave Francona for the stretch run. The majority of the Red Sox struggles should be blamed not on the manager, but on injuries, on the poor job Epstein did of acquiring SP depth, and the bad luck of run distribution in the last month. But I think that a manager doesn't have to be entirely to blame for him to be worth blaming.

Okay, when you frame it like that, I think you've made a good case.

In terms of your analysis, I think you're making a mistake when you blame the bad run prevention numbers entirely on the pitching staff. It's defense, too, and there is reasonably objective evidence (the spike in errors) and reasonable subjective evidence (as any Sox fan whether the team has been playing smart baseball in the field) that the defense has been costing the Red Sox a whole lot of runs. They have been more mental and physical screwups in the field the last three weeks than I can remember at any other time in my life as a fan.

I'm not saying that the pitching's been all that's wrong with the way they've been playing, and bad pitching can't excuse what went on in yesterday's second inning. The point I'm trying to get at, though, is mostly psychological, and it's that no matter what the Platonic ideal (and a multi-million dollar contract) might tell a player about keeping his concentration at 100% at all times, it's only human that when the first line of the defense (the pitcher) is failing so miserably and so predictably, it's bound to affect everything else. It could just as easily work the other way in some cases, where a pitcher who was coasting blows up after a couple of key errors in a close game**, but in the case of the last few weeks, it's been the pitching woes that IMO have begun to poison everything else.

And that pattern of mental and physical errors - and recently, evidence of simple insubordination on the field - has to be on the manager.

You've made a very good case for Francona's role as at least bearing partial responsibility for what's happened.

**e.g. Mike Mussina, 8th inning game 3 of the 1996 ALCS

'25 players...75 cars'

That's an update on the old cliche that I think the late David Halberstam might appreciate.

It will be sad to see Francona go in the sense he is basically the most successful manager they've had for 90 years, but at this point I think there is a general consensus that should they miss the playoffs entirely it's no longer a question of if but when.

My only real concern is that if there's not a plan in place for what to do once Tito goes, things could spiral pretty quickly into a "Fenway Zoo" situation, which doesn't bode well... The press has probably been salivating for years for a return to the old Duquette-Williams years, when the clubhouse was leak central and the back-stabbing on overdrive--I just think unless handled in a quick, orderly fashion it could be a disaster.

Boston might not be able to celebrate a playoff birth yet, but they can note that today is the centennial anniversary for the groundbreaking of Fenway Park

Neat article, Chris. Following one of the links, I noticed an amusing coincidence: In the worst home loss in Red Sox history, guess who gave up the final seven runs?

all managers who can easily be categorized as "players manager" or "redass" have expiration dates

Hmmm. Any chance that the absence of noted redass Youkilis (in addition to his hitting) is part of the problem here?

50 - I was at that game 4 row behind the Sox dugout. Stayed 'til the bitter end, after the final out Daubach took off his batting gloves and tossed them into the crowd, one of them remains on my mantlepiece as one of two "game used" souvenirs I've ever gotten.

They should have traded for Carlos Zambrano.

Looking like a half game back with one to play tonight.