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Saturday, December 09, 2017

Alan Trammell worthy of Cooperstown call

Alan Trammell is a Hall of Fame player.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 09, 2017 at 08:08 AM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: alan trammell, tigers

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   1. Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: December 09, 2017 at 08:18 PM (#5589432)
Good article. I very much want to see Trammell voted in tomorrow. I'm almost 100% sure Jack Morris gets the call.
   2. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 09, 2017 at 08:37 PM (#5589435)
Jack Morris shouldn’t get in until Bert Blyleven gets in twice.
   3. ReggieThomasLives Posted: December 09, 2017 at 09:38 PM (#5589447)
Trammell peaked at 45 WAA, Jeter at 36 WAA. By value Trammel is so overqualified it’s silly.
   4. The Duke Posted: December 09, 2017 at 10:31 PM (#5589458)
I’m betting on 1 name. Ted Simmons. Trammel and Morris haven’t been off ballot long enough. Miller might get close.
   5. The Ghost of Logan Schafer Posted: December 09, 2017 at 11:14 PM (#5589465)
It's mathematically difficult to elect anyone when the voters are forbidden to choose more than four of the ten nominees.
It's kind of a joke that no player who made his MLB debut after 1960 has been elected by the VC.
   6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 10, 2017 at 01:19 AM (#5589479)
Vizquel is going to debut with a higher percentage of the vote than Trammell ever got, despite being a much worse player at the same position.
   7. LargeBill Posted: December 10, 2017 at 09:46 AM (#5589504)
6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 10, 2017 at 01:19 AM (#5589479)
Vizquel is going to debut with a higher percentage of the vote than Trammell ever got, despite being a much worse player at the same position.


True. Which is why advocates of Vizquel should be rooting hard for Trammell. A lot of the disparaging talk about Vizquel stems from anger that Trammell was not elected. They played the same position, but their HOF arguments are far different. Vizquel's calling card is mainly playing most games ever at premium defensive position. Trammell's argument is being a complete overall player who provided much more offense while also being very good defensively.
   8. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: December 10, 2017 at 12:40 PM (#5589549)
In our BBTF Mock 2018 Modern Baseball Committee election, Trammell was easily elected with 94% of the vote
   9. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: December 10, 2017 at 12:43 PM (#5589551)
I’m betting on 1 name. Ted Simmons. Trammel and Morris haven’t been off ballot long enough. Miller might get close.

I'd love to see Simmons get in but he's a long shot at best. He's been on both Expansion Era ballots and not broke 50%. Morris is gonna make it, Trammell will either just make it or just miss and Miller & Murphy may reach 50%

Murphy has Schuerholz (& possibly to some degree Cox) heavily campaigning for him
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 05:18 PM (#5589656)
I'd love to see Simmons get in but he's a long shot at best. He's been on both Expansion Era ballots and not broke 50%. Morris is gonna make it, Trammell will either just make it or just miss and Miller & Murphy may reach 50%


I think that's a pretty solid guess. Miller might get a little more support, depending how the electorate treats his request.

   11. bachslunch Posted: December 10, 2017 at 05:42 PM (#5589664)
@10: hope Miller does get support, but am concerned that with six executives on the committee, that may be wishful thinking.
   12. reech Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:24 PM (#5589677)
And he is IN!
   13. JRVJ Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:29 PM (#5589679)
As I wrote to Jay Jaffee, Morris is what he is, but I am very happy that one of the committees finally managed to right a wrong (Trammell).
   14. ajnrules Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:32 PM (#5589682)
I'm happy for Morris and especially for Trammell. Sad that Miller got robbed again, but he was right in that it's pretty much impossible for him to get in with the committee set up the way it is.
   15. QLE Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:36 PM (#5589684)
The vote, for those wondering:

(16 voting, 12 votes needed for induction):

Jack Morris- 14
Alan Trammell- 13
Ted Simmons- 11
Marvin Miller- 7

Everyone else- "less than seven" (no further breakdown)

Citation
   16. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:36 PM (#5589685)
Results of the Modern Baseball Era Ballot (12 votes needed for election): Jack Morris (14 votes, 87.5%); Alan Trammell (13 votes, 81.3%); Ted Simmons (11 votes, 68.8%); Marvin Miller (7 votes, 43.8%); Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant each received fewer than seven votes.

From HOF website: Ted Simmons missed by 1 vote
   17. DL from MN Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:37 PM (#5589687)
Strong showing by Simmons. Awfully hard to induct 3 given the voting rules.
   18. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:38 PM (#5589688)
I’m betting on 1 name. Ted Simmons. Trammel and Morris haven’t been off ballot long enough. Miller might get close

Duke, I'm pleasantly shocked to see Simmons do this well. Hopefully he gets voted in when the Modern Baseball Era votes again in two years
   19. JRVJ Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:46 PM (#5589695)
Twitter seems ticked off about Miller not making it, but the real amazing thing is that TWO candidates got in (Morris and Trammell) and a third one ALMOST got in, considering that voters only had 3 ballot choices.

Phrased differently, with 14 out of 16 votes for Morris, 14 out of 16 votes for Trammell and 11 out of 16 votes for Simmons, there was almost no ballot real estate left for anybody else.

I'm very, very surprised by these two inductees.
   20. Adam Starblind Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:47 PM (#5589696)
What was the case for Morris again?
   21. BDC Posted: December 10, 2017 at 06:51 PM (#5589698)
Most similar careers to Trammell, 2B and SS centered on him in terms of OPS+ and PA:

Player          dWAR   PA OPSRbaser  HR  RBI   BA  OBP  SLG         Pos
Bobby Wallace   28.7 9612  105  
-13.0  34 1121 .268 .332 .358 *65/14H9873
Alan Trammell   22.0 9376  110   24.9 185 1003 .285 .352 .415   
*6/HD5478
Ryne Sandberg   12.8 9282  114   32.9 282 1061 .285 .344 .452     
*45/H6D
Miguel Tejada    5.9 9205  108   11.1 307 1302 .285 .336 .456    
*65/4HD3 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/10/2017.

Most similar careers to Morris, centered on him in terms of GS and ERA+:

Player             WAR  GS ERA+   W   L     IP  ERA  FIP
Bartolo Colon     47.5 528  107 240 176 3315.1 4.04 4.09
Bob Friend        47.0 497  107 197 230 3611.0 3.58 3.35
Burleigh Grimes   46.9 497  108 270 212 4180.0 3.53 3.65
Jack Morris       43.8 527  105 254 186 3824.0 3.90 3.94 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/10/2017.
   22. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:21 PM (#5589706)
Thrilled that Trammell finally made it, indifferent to Morris though I wouldn't have voted for him. Should've been Whitaker instead.
   23. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:23 PM (#5589707)
Gah. Mistakes of omission can always be corrected, mistakes of commission cannot. I'd have rather neither than both. At least Bartolo Colon has one more data point for his hall of fame case.
   24. John DiFool2 Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:30 PM (#5589710)
Which World Series winners now have no HoFers?
   25. DavidFoss Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:35 PM (#5589711)
I think the 1981 Dodgers are the only non-recent WS winner with no HOF-ers.
   26. -- Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:42 PM (#5589715)
Finally. Both eminently worthy and richly deserved. Posnanski had a good column on Morris yesterday:

With Morris, the word to use is "will." He willed his way through games, throwing that split-fingered fastball into the dirt again and again and again, never giving in. He led the league in wild pitches six times, and since 1900 only Nolan Ryan and Phil Niekro threw more wild pitches than Morris' 206. This was Morris' nature. He was willing to endure the walks and wild pitches; he was going to make you swing at his pitch.

And through his sheer competitiveness and combativeness, Morris became a larger-than-life character. He never had a season with an ERA below 3.00, but every one of his managers wanted the ball in his hand when the spotlight was hottest and the big moment was at hand.

The arguments about Morris' career numbers and how they match up with other Hall of Famers have been made again and again. He won 254 games, 43rd all-time, and he is among the top 50 in starts, innings pitched and strikeouts. He also falls well short on Jay Jaffe's JAWS system, which combines a player's career and peak value. Morris' JAWS was 38.4; the average Hall of Fame pitcher has a 62.1 JAWS.

But the argument for Morris is really an argument of the heart, that he was one-of-a-kind, a ferocious pitcher who went after hitters game after game, year after year. And then, in the biggest game of his life, Game 7 of the 1991 Fall Classic, he was at his indomitable best, holding down the Atlanta Braves for 10 innings, outdueling future Hall of Famer John Smoltz and winning the World Series for his hometown Minnesota Twins.


Well put.
   27. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:50 PM (#5589716)
It's. About. Flippin'. TIME!!

Now, elect Whitaker, ferchrissakes!
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 07:52 PM (#5589717)
What was the case for Morris again?


1. Most wins in the 80's
2. Most times being opening day pitcher.
3. 10 inning world series shutout.
4. There should be a starting pitcher in the hof who debut after 1970 and before 1984(I'm putting Clemens as in...if not you have to go to Maddux in 1986)
5. Most complete games among pitchers who's career started after 1970(and it's by a pretty decent margin he has 175, Frank Tanana 143, Steve Rogers 129, Dennis Martinez 122, Clemens 118, Fernando 113, Maddux 109)

Of those points, the only one that has even slight merit is point 4, and even there, I think there is plenty of debate on whether or not there should be a hofer at each position per 'generation'.
   29. Baldrick Posted: December 10, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5589735)
Morris going in eventually was an inevitability. Doesn't mean I can't be extremely annoyed about it.
   30. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 08:41 PM (#5589761)
1. Most wins in the 80's


That's always been an oversimpflication. He had the most wins in the 79-88s, the 81-90s and three other 10-year periods. It doesn't make him a HoFer, in my view, but the win totals weren't just a product of selective end points.

   31. DavidFoss Posted: December 10, 2017 at 08:42 PM (#5589763)
Duke, I'm pleasantly shocked to see Simmons do this well. Hopefully he gets voted in when the Modern Baseball Era votes again in two years

Is it predictable who else joins the VC ballot in two years? Not that I wouldn't mind Simmons getting in, but I could see him finishing 3rd again if two better players join the ballot.
   32. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 10, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5589765)
That the VC would select Morris over Tiant demonstrates how badly that institution needs to be reformed.

You can say that both are HOF-worthy (i.e., Big Hall) or neither are HOF-worthy (i.e., small Hall), but there simply is no reasonable justification for ranking Morris ahead of Tiant.

John is also ahead of Morris, albeit the gap between Tiant and John is greater than the gap between John and Morris.
   33. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 08:51 PM (#5589770)
Is it predictable who else joins the VC ballot in two years? Not that I wouldn't mind Simmons getting in, but I could see him finishing 3rd again if two better players join the ballot.


There really shouldn't be. Since there's another era after it, this cohort should stay fairly stable. Grich and Whitaker could make it, but most subsequent new eligibles will likely fall into the later category.
   34. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:02 PM (#5589817)
It's almost certain that Whitaker will be on the next ballot

I believe they will re-add Dave Concepcion to the ballot, having him on with a fellow SS Trammell may have taken away votes from both
Concepcion got 50% of the vote on the Dec 2010 Expansion Era ballot and with a Tony Perez or Joe Morgan on the panel could make it in. I don't think Concepcion is a HOFer but I wouldn't be shocked if he got in

I'm hoping they put Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich, & Keith Hernandez on the next ballot
   35. ajnrules Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:16 PM (#5589829)
I believe they will re-add Dave Concepcion to the ballot, having him on with a fellow SS Trammell may have taken away votes from both
Concepcion got 50% of the vote on the Dec 2010 Expansion Era ballot and with a Tony Perez or Joe Morgan on the panel could make it in. I don't think Concepcion is a HOFer but I wouldn't be shocked if he got in

Tony Perez and Johnny Bench was on that December 2010 committee and even then Concepcion could only muster 50%. Now if they have Perez and Morgan and throw in Barry Larkin he may have a shot.
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:21 PM (#5589831)
That's always been an oversimpflication. He had the most wins in the 79-88s, the 81-90s and three other 10-year periods. It doesn't make him a HoFer, in my view, but the win totals weren't just a product of selective end points.


It just doesn't matter at all, it's the point that is brought up with every person pushing his candidacy, as if being on a good team and pitching deep into games at a slightly above average rate for a decade makes you a hofer.

   37. Morty Causa Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:23 PM (#5589832)
Concepcion getting in would be one giant step downward in standards.
   38. cardsfanboy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:25 PM (#5589834)

I'm hoping they put Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich, & Keith Hernandez on the next ballot


I'm not, I want the ballot to intentionally be weighted for deserving players to make it easier for them to make it.. .unless they are willing to up the number of players the committee is allowed to vote for having a ballot loaded with deserving players, and not allowing for campaigning is just going to frequently end up with nobody making it in.
   39. SoSH U at work Posted: December 10, 2017 at 10:40 PM (#5589844)

It just doesn't matter at all, it's the point that is brought up with every person pushing his candidacy,


I don't believe in countering bad arguments with faulty arguments.

I'm not, I want the ballot to intentionally be weighted for deserving players to make it easier for them to make it.. .unless they are willing to up the number of players the committee is allowed to vote for having a ballot loaded with deserving players, and not allowing for campaigning is just going to frequently end up with nobody making it in.


It's kind of interesting that the real committee just elected more guys than we did. I'm not sure what effect adding guys we consider great choices would have on the committee doing the voting. Without that knowledge, I do want to see any of the more deserving guys added at the expense of more Mattinglys and Parkers.

   40. cardsfanboy Posted: December 10, 2017 at 11:03 PM (#5589853)
I don't believe in countering bad arguments with faulty arguments.


That is fine, since I'm not countering any argument, and just listing the "bad" arguments being made for Morris candidacy.
   41. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 11, 2017 at 12:09 AM (#5589866)
What was the case for Morris again?

...

4. There should be a starting pitcher in the hof who debut after 1970 and before 1984(I'm putting Clemens as in...if not you have to go to Maddux in 1986)

...

Of those points, the only one that has even slight merit is point 4, and even there, I think there is plenty of debate on whether or not there should be a hofer at each position per 'generation'.
I don't see how #4 has any merit. It's an argument that someone from that era should be in the Hall; it's not at all an argument for Morris. Maybe one can use that argument why (say) Stieb should be there. But Morris clearly isn't the best pitcher of that cohort, so it doesn't help him.
   42. Meatwad Posted: December 11, 2017 at 12:16 AM (#5589869)
If it took morris to get trammell in than it's worth it. We all knew jack the Jack was getting in
   43. QLE Posted: December 11, 2017 at 12:26 AM (#5589872)
#33-

By my count, the following position players are ones who 1) had the bulk of their careers between 1970 and 1987 (the years this particular committee is designed to consider), 2) have a strong claim for induction in sabermetric terms, and 3) are not in the HOF:

Sal Bando
Buddy Bell
Bobby Bonds
Ron Cey
Darrell Evans
Dwight Evans
Bobby Grich
Keith Hernandez
Chet Lemon
Thurman Munson
Graig Nettles
Willie Randolph
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Gene Tenace
Lou Whitaker

Of these sixteen, the only one who was on the ballot was Simmons, so there is clearly room to rotate these men in as the Modern Baseball Committee sees fit. However, there are three items that are unclear:

1) If all eight of the holdovers will remain on the ballot- there are several players and other figures who were on the 2011 and 2014 ballots (the two recent ones that most closely resemble this eligibility set) that did not make this one.

2) If the selectors for the Modern Baseball Committee (and did we ever figure out who they were for this ballot?) will rotate people in from the list I have above, instead of some of those folk from the past ballots (Concepcion, Billy Martin, Guidry, Oliver, and Quisenberry) or players of that ilk who have not been on recent VC ballots.

3) If they do pick players from my list above, which ones they would pick: Whitaker would seem a favorite, but, having just inducted two players associated with the 1984 Tigers, they may be reluctant to place a third one on the ballot.

Overall, I make no call involving what the Modern Baseball Committee shall do- the results of this ballot suggest that they aren't as predictable as we'd think.
   44. SoSH U at work Posted: December 11, 2017 at 12:36 AM (#5589873)
Of these sixteen, the only one who was on the ballot was Simmons, so there is clearly room to rotate these men in as the Modern Baseball Committee sees fit. However, there are three items that are unclear:


The point is, regardless what we think, all of those men were perceived as weaker than the 10 who made the ballot this year. The era isn't expanding, so there aren't many more first-time eligibles, such as Trammell and Morris this year, to add to the pool. Virtually all of the subsequent players who will become a part of this group in the next vote will be people who were bypassed by this committee this time.

Among the guys you listed, I don't think a single one of them spent 15 years on the ballot. The only guy who exhausted his eligibility in the BBWAA vote who can join this field is Lee Smith (who is probably the early co-favorite among players with Simmons).

   45. John Northey Posted: December 11, 2017 at 02:12 AM (#5589886)
I say lets push for Dave Stieb - lowest ERA+ in the 80's among qualifiers (1620 IP+) iirc at 126 (a 3.32 ERA). Clemens is under 1300 IP. Lowest ERA I think is Fernando Valenzuela at 3.19 but that was in Dodgers Stadium so his ERA+ is just 111. Just checked and Nolan Ryan is at 3.14 but also just a 111 ERA+ due to mainly being in the Astrodome. Dwight Gooden also low on innings (under 1300), Orel Hershiser is also low on innings (1457 with a 2.69 ERA 132 ERA+). Bret Saberhagen also is shy of 1400 IP, let alone 1600+.

So yeah, it is a sad argument but no worse than the "most wins in the 80's" one. Ryan already is in with what I think is the lowest ERA for the 80's. He led the AL in WAR for pitchers 3 times in the 80's 2 more times in the top 5 (plus in 1990). No question he was a far, far better pitcher just had the bad luck of playing in a hitters park for a bad team during his best seasons then got horrid support in one of his best seasons (thus an ERA title but a 14-13 record in 1985 on a team that won 99 games). Flip Morris and Stieb's teams and I bet no one would be thinking of Morris for the HOF while Stieb would have won a few Cy Youngs and been voted in easily.

Ah well. Such is life.
   46. DL from MN Posted: December 11, 2017 at 08:29 AM (#5589905)
Manipulate the ballot to elect Simmons and Whitaker if possible. Then add Grich the next time around.
   47. DanG Posted: December 11, 2017 at 01:18 PM (#5590187)
Among the guys you listed, I don't think a single one of them spent 15 years on the ballot. The only guy who exhausted his eligibility in the BBWAA vote who can join this field is Lee Smith (who is probably the early co-favorite among players with Simmons).
Munson is the only one there who made it to 15 years.

Lee Smith will be a Today's Game Era candidate for next year's election.
   48. SoSH U at work Posted: December 11, 2017 at 01:28 PM (#5590195)
Lee Smith will be a Today's Game Era candidate for next year's election.


Is that established? Because he shouldn't be in that group. His greatest contributions clearly came in the Modern Baseball Era (1970-87).

   49. DanG Posted: December 11, 2017 at 02:07 PM (#5590237)
Is that established? Because he shouldn't be in that group. His greatest contributions clearly came in the Modern Baseball Era (1970-87).
I don't think the HOF has said one way or the other, but I'm 90% sure Smith's a TG Era guy. He was VC eligible this year and wasn't on the ballot. Also, he had most of his saves (and most of his games) after 1987 and that's what his entire HOF case rests upon.

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