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Sunday, July 01, 2012
AL
C- Mike Napoli, Tex
1B- Prince Fielder, Det
2B- Robinson Cano, NYY
3B- Adrian Beltre, Tex
SS- Derek Jeter, NYY
OF- Josh Hamilton, Tex
OF- Curtis Granderson, NYY
OF- Jose Bautista, Tor
DH- David Oriz, Bos
NL
C- Buster Posey, SF
1B- Joey Votto, Cin
2B- Dan Uggla, Atl
3B- Pablo Sandoval, SF
SS- Rafael Furcal, StL
OF- Matt Kemp, LAD
OF- Carlos Beltran, StL
OF- Melky Cabrera, SF
WTF on a whole lot of these picks.
Edit: Link added.
The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott)
Posted: July 01, 2012 at 01:12 PM | 123 comment(s)
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Reserves:
AL:
C- Joe Mauer, Min
C- Matt Wieters, Bal
1B- Paul Konerko, CWS
2B- Ian Kinsler, Tex
SS- Elvus Andrus, Tex
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle
3B- Miguel Cabrera, Det
OF- Adam Jones, Bal
OF- Mike Trout, LAA
OF- Mark Trumbo, LAA
DH- Adam Dunn, CWS
DH- Billy Butler, KCR
NL
C- Carlos Ruiz, Phi
C- Yadier Molina, StL
1B- Brian LaHair, ChC
2B- Jose Altuve, Hou
SS- Starlin Castro, ChC
SS- Ian Desmond, Was
3B- David Wright, NYM
OF- Jay Bruce, Cin
OF- Carlos Gonzalez, Col
OF- Giancarlo Stanton, Mia
OF- Ryan Braun, Mil
OF- Andrew McCutchen, Pit
Pitchers:
AL:
SP- Matt Harrison, Tex
SP- Felix Hernandez, Sea
SP- Justin Verlander, Det
SP- CC Sabathia, NYY*
SP- CJ Wilson, LAA**
SP- Jered Weaver, LAA
SP- Chris Sale, CWS
SP- David Price, Tam
RP- Joe Nathan, Tex
RP- Ryan Cook, Oak
RP- Jim Johnson, Bal
RP- Chris Perez, Cle
RP- Fernando Rodney, Tam
NL:
SP- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
SP- Gio Gonzalez, Was
SP- Stephen Strasburg, Was
SP- Cole Hamels, Phi
SP- Wade Miley, Ari
SP- RA Dickey, NYM
SP- Matt Cain, SF
RP- Jon Papelbon, Phi
RP- Craig Kimbrel, Atl
RP- Aroldis Chapman, Cin
RP- Lance Lynn, StL
RP- Joel Hanrahan, Pit
RP- Huston Street, SD
* Will Miss ASG with Injury
** Injury Replacement
Rosters at MLB.com: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2012/roster_league.jsp
34th Man:
AL:
RP Jonathan Broxton, KCR
SP Yu Darvish, Tex
RP Ernesto Frieri, LAA
SP Jason Hammel, Bal
SP Jake Peavy, CWS
NL:
OF Michael Bourn, Atl
3B David Freese, Stl
OF Bryce Harper, Was
2B Aaron Hill, Ari
3B Chipper Jones, Atl
Well, they want at least one representative from every team.
And I screwed up Lance Lynn, he's a SP obviously, not a RP.
That explains Cook, but not Perez, Rodney or Johnson. Isn't there a minimum number of relievers they have to take? That's the rule I'd change.
Furcal's having a pretty good season and has had a better career to date than either Lowrie or Desmond. I would have picked Lowrie but I don't see it as a travesty that he's not on the team.
The guys I would have liked to see make it who didn't are Mike Moustakas, Brett Lawrie and Madison Bumgarner.
EDIT: Okay, yeah, Panda over Wright is weird, but San Francisco has a relatively fervid fanbase, and not enough Mets fans are going to games this year, where they would be encouraged to vote for Wright.
I'm more amazed the craptastic Cubs have two players.
Last 162 games..
Best OPS among NL 3b
Sandoval .931
Wright .909
Ramirez .894
It's not like either one is all that good either. LaHair especially is a strange choice. It's like picking Brian Daubach or somebody like that.
50%+ games played at 2B, sorted by WAR
Uggla .858
Phillips .833
Murphy .788
I think that's because it's assigning some huge (unjustifiable) debit to Altuve for his defense.
Similarly, Barney's getting an inappropriate amount of defensive credit.
For single seasons, Playing in the NL, For 2012, Played 50% of games at 3B, sorted by greatest WAR Position Players
Managers prefer to take relievers over starters. There aren't as many restrictions about whether the relievers are allowed to pitch or not, and relievers obviously have more experience pitching out of the bullpen.
2.4 dWAR in less than half a season? Yeah, pardon me if I don't quite buy that. I mean, his defense is probably good, but not 5 wins/season good.
I'm not sure what your list is intended to prove, beyond that a banjo hitting second baseman for a bad team might be deserving of a slot if you trust some defensive metrics.
Not odd if the fans know better than to only consider the first few months of the season when making their all star selections. Ok...I realize it's more about SFO fans ballot stuffing than fan understanding of sample size. (See Cabrera, Melky over Braun)
I think you can also legitimately say WTF about Napoli. He's not having nearly as good a year as Mauer or Weiters, Saltalamacchia or even Pierzynski. By fWAR he's tied with Carlos Santana. He's got 1 WAR. He's gone from woefully underrated to massively overrated over the course of about calendar year.
It is definitely weird that James McDonald wasn't selected. Or even-- and it pains me to say it, somehow-- AJ Burnett. Hanrahan's been great, but the Pirates' pitching overall has been surprisingly good, they should have some recognition.
Also, dWar has gone from dodgy to almost completely useless with the prevalence of shifts.
Maybe fans are smart enough now to ignore BABiP flukes?
The numbers I gave are from June 26, 2011 thru June 30 2011, which is approx 162 games for almost every team. Sandoval's OPS since June 26 of last year is higher than Wrights.
It's not that I'm not weighting this year, it's that you are not weighting post all star break last year AT ALL.
As for AL Catcher, since June 26 last year, (again..aprox last 162 games)
Napoli .980
Mauer .834
Avila .819
You are basically looking at first half numbers, and first half bREF WAR lists, which are hugely flawed cuz the fielding is all messed up, and not considering anything that happened before this year.
It shows that last year's NL starter is now ranked dead last. He's the anti-Dunn.
This...a thousand times this.
This shows that the voting probably started too early - both LaHair and Altuve got off to great starts, but were later passed by Hill and Goldschmidt. Or that the players just remembered the hot starts and didn't notice what has happened in the last month.
Actually, I was using Fangraphs WAR. And this is the 2012 All Star Game, not the 2011-2012 All Star Game. So you're right that I'm not putting more weight on 2nd half splits that i'm not already using for Proven Stars v. Guys having a hot first half.
eta: My mistake on thinking you were looking at past 162 player games, not last 162 total games.
edited for clarity.
(min 400 PA's)
NL C
Ruiz .893
Molina .866
Montero .813
AL 1b
Encarnacion .895
Konerko .892
Fielder .890*
Pujols .871*
NL 1b
Votto 1.017
Morse .870
Goldschmidt .869
AL 2b
Cano .934
Kinsler .843
Pedroia .823
NL 2b
Uggla .858
Phillips .833
Murphy .788
AL 3b
Cabrera .980
Beltre .968
Longoria .917
NL 3b
Sandoval .931
Wirght .909
Ramirez .894
AL SS
A. Cabrera .809
Jeter .792
Andrus .768
NL SS
Tulowitzki .942
Reyes .787
Lowrie .768
AL OF
Ellsbury .981
Hamilton .958
Bautista .945
Willingham .902
Granderson .875
Trumbo .863
Gordon .851
Murphy .850
Swisher .849
NL OF
Braun 1.028
C. Gonzalez 1.007
Kemp .998
Beltran .970
Stanton .915
Fowler .896
McCutcheon .887
Melky Cabrera .887 *
Holliday .871
DH
Ortiz .972
Butler .837
Dude...the balloting starts in late April !!! Think for a minute.
And over half the votes came in over the last week. And even accepting that they didn't, Wright was up 400k over Panda just 5 days ago. Your argument is ignore that Panda has missed a third of the season and is having a much worse year than Wright because he was really hot at the second half of the last season, and that we should think that people are voting for Panda because he was better in the 2nd half of last year than Wright since the voting started in April. The evidence doesn't back that up. What it backs up is that SF fans voted like crazy in the last few days and got a guy who simply isn't on the same level as Wright this year elected starter.
eta: I mean, you can't see why I'm frustrated? As I said, I'm not calling foul. That's the way it is, and it makes for fun arguments like this over player snubs. But I don't think it's objectively the case that Panda should be the starter given the 2nd best player in the NL is at the same position.
Yes, but you're arguing for David Wright. Wright's last three years by WAR: 1.9, 2.5, 2.9.
Why shouldn't fans be skeptical of his hot start? In 2010, he hit a .924 OPS in the first half and a .770 OPS in the second half.
Oh, and ESPN tin-hats note please that the Red Sox have one player.
It all counts. Current year. Last year. History. Offense, defense, context.....there is so much that goes into it. But your arguments are based solely on current first half year performance.
Also, you read my post #28 , right ?
You're arguing that a guy in the running for MVP should sit for a guy who's only played 44 games because the other guy had an excellent second half last year.
* That's 1.6 WAR higher than Panda's best year, and it's not even close to his best season.
Yeah, and as I granted, this isn't about the fan vote. It's about the objective choice. You have to cherrypick very carefully to make the argument that the choice of Sandoval over Wright as starter is the objectively correct one. It gets marginally easier, in the literal sense of marginally, if you ignore fangraphs WAR for bref WAR, since Sandoval is then 11.9 bWAR from 2009 on vs. Wright's 11.6. I suppose you could argue that the correct starting choice is solely decided by the guy who's been better over the last 162 games, in which case you might be able to make a colorable case for Sandoval.
How the #### is a third baseman with a 108 OPS+ on pace for a 10-WAR season? What kind of unholy defensive jiu-jitsu is he practicing out there?
But you wrote this:
You are clearly quite upset and feel this is a grave injustice. I'm just saying it's not really all that big a deal. I'd personally choose Wright over Panda, but it's much closer than your comment above would lead one to believe if you look at more than just April and May of 2012.
Also, I didn't cherry pick anything. Actually last night I made the "last 162" OPS leaderboard because I knew there would be a lot of these types of discussions. I didn't know in advance it would be Panda.
Note that Barney's WAR, based on fangraphs, is 1.2, instead of the 3.4 at Baseball-Reference.
We'll ignore for now that Wright is 3 years older but you can't say that Sandoval is not in the same category of stardom as Wright then complain that Giants fans stuffed the ballot box.
Sandoval has one of the better nicknames in baseball, a very public persona as cuddly, fun fat guy, and has been a central figure (even if he didn't have that good of a season) of a recent World Series champion. Wright has no public persona at all, hasn't done any commercials or notable endorsements in years, and is primarily known for complaining enough about his home park enough for his team to move the fences in. He hasn't even been a central figure in the 'Surprising Mets!' narrative, since the two stars are Santana and Dickey.
On the other hand I believe Ben Zobrist's dWAR was ludicrous last year for the same reason, and everybody just said "The Rays have yet another unsung hero in deserving MVP candidate Ben Zobrist", because he also was hitting well.
Now I'm getting frustrated now that you are totally ignoring all the stuff I dug up regarding Panda v. Wright over the last 4 years and my case is pretty clearly based upon more than just looking at April and May of 2012. It's only if you ignore this year that you can make a case for Sandoval, although even then it's really at best a coin flip. That's the point I'm trying to get across.
Yeah, it's surprising how anonymous David Wright has become. It's like now that Reyes is gone the Wright & Reyes era is over and a new era has begun, despite Wright's continued existence.
As for the notable endorsements, it's been six years since the Dr. Jaerock Lee incident. I think he can put himself out there again.
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120628&content_id=34086608&vkey=allstar2012
[39] Some more OPS leaders by position.....roughly last 162 games or 365 days
(min 400 PA's) ...
NL 3b
Sandoval .931
Wirght [sic].909
Ramirez .894
[Emphasis added]
During the June 26, 2011 to June 30, 2012 time period, Wright has started 137 games and has 600 PA while Sandoval has started 120 games, played in 126 games and accumulated 511 PA, just 9 more than required to qualify for rate stats over a 162 game season.
Nevertheless, it's the 2012 All Star Game. Wright's played in 75 of 79 team games in 2012 versus only 44 for Sandoval, who is 60+ PA short of the 3.1 PA/team game qualification for 2012 rate stats.
Huh? Wright, along with those two, are certainly the central pillars of "Surprising Mets!" narrative. He's certainly the most popular player on the team.
How many times do I have to say that I don't have an issue with this? Is everything I say being translated through Ray DiPierna? My argument is about whatever weight is given to being a star player is to figure out the "correct" choice for starter, Sandoval is at a disadvantage to Wright.
Is there really a question as to whether this is a WTF choice by the voters? I guess there is, I just don't think it's a supportable proposition.
Really WAR for even a full season has always been in question, since you need 3 years worth of fielding data to gain any sense of reliability anyway.
I think bb-ref should use a rolling WAR calculation, sort of like multi year park factors, and apply THAT to the WAR calculation. Using single year fielding data and weighting that the same as the batting runs has always been the big flaw.
I think the issue may be that normally we would SAY that something is a "WTF choice", but we're really just saying that the voters made a mistake, not a confusing or inexplicable mistake, just a mistake of voting for the more famous player.
Whereas you are legitimately saying "WTF?", as in it is not clear what mechanism could have led to this happening.
If that's how I've come across, then I've been completely horrific at explaining what I mean. I intend the first meaning, that the voters made a mistake driven largely by the hometown support for Sandoval. Atop that, from a standpoint of who "deserves" to start the 2012 All Star Game at 3B the answer is not Pablo Sandoval using most measures we have and giving varying weight to current years performance, previous years performance, stardom, and whatever other things go into that admittedly subjective mix.
The disconnect is coming from my thinking it's obvious that Panda is a poor choice, whereas others disagree.
Not really - the media is in full-on Dickeymania, and Santana has the no-no and the arm surgery in his back pocket. David Wright is basically having the same season as last year, just with 100 more points of BA. I'm not looking down on .355, of course, but it's not like he's done something noteworthy like hit 20 home runs by the break that would grab people's attention.
He's the most popular player among Met fans, but being the most popular player (and a cipher everywhere else) of NYC's second team that's still losing fans despite a surprising season is not enough versus a popular public figure across baseball who has the weight of a major American region that is still in love with his team behind him.
I would like to see a regressed multi-year defensive component. Just as an option. I would hope that that number would become the go-to for arguments on this site.
It doesn't hurt that every team must be represented and Altuve is the only representative of the Astros.
If a guy is consistently -0.8 WAR, then maybe that's worth talking about. But average defenders never really sit at 0.0. I'm looking at Wright's stat card now, which is a good example. He's basically average, but he's never at 0.0, rather fluctuating between -0.9 and 1.4.
I think this is mistaken. Since getting beaned he'd started striking out much more and lost 20-30 walks per year. This year he's walking even more often than during his great years, and he's striking out less than he ever has. On top of that, he's the only person a casual fan can pick out in the starting lineup. I agree that the media is in full-on Dickeymania, but that only became true the past month. Johan has been a big story all season. But I don't think you can go from that to saying he's the forgotten man of the Mets.
ETA: ESPN has been hyping the game tonight as "Kershaw and the Dodgers vs. Superstar David Wright." Anecdotal, but David Wright is not Vlad Guerrero circa early aughts where he was a huge player but people didn't know about him. Of course, if you're correct and I'm wrong in saying that Wright is more famous than Sandoval, then my WTF becomes simply the first meaning from 62.
Lowrie would've been a better selection, but this way LaRussa gets to dick over Brandon Phillips. Also, Johnny Cueto has thrown 107 innings with a 2.26 ERA (184 ERA+). He's 9-4, so it's not like his record is holding him back. No idea how he gets left off. Well, one idea.
1993: Galarraga
1994: Bichette
1995: Bichette, Castilla
1996: Bichette, Burks, Young
1997: Walker, Galarraga
1998: Walker, Bichette, Castilla
1999: Walker
2000: Helton, Hammonds, Cirillo
2001: Helton, Walker, Hampton
2002: Helton
2003: Helton, Chacon, Preston Wilson
2004: Helton
2005: Fuentes
2006: Holliday and Fuentes
2007: Holliday and Fuentes
2008: Holliday and Cook
2009: Hawpe and Marquis (yes, this team went to the playoffs)
2010: Tulowitzki and Jimenez
2011: Tulowitzki
2012: Gonzalez, ?
1993: Sheffield, Bryan Harvey
1994: Conine
1995: Conine
1996: Sheffield, Brown, Leiter
1997: Alou, Brown, Charles Johnson
1998: Renteria
1999: Alex Gonzalez
2000: Dempster
2001: Floyd, Charles Johnson
2002: Lowell, Castillo
2003: Lowell, Castillo, Willis (yes, these were the World Series winners)
2004: Lowell, Cabrera, Pavano, Armando Benitez
2005: Cabrera, Castillo, Lo Duca, Willis
2006: Cabrera, Uggla
2007: Cabrera
2008: Ramirez, Uggla
2009: Ramirez, Josh Johnson
2010: Ramirez, John Johnson
2011: Sanchez
2012: Stanton, ?
No, last year Zobrist's dWAR was slightly negative because Total Zone didn't like his defense at either position (-4 combined). While I feel strongly that it was incorrect the switch to DRS for dWAR this season retroactively put his 2011 numbers too far in the other direction, giving him +29 for the season. Looking back now WAR has him as easily the MVP in 2011 and behind only Greinke (.7 up on Mauer, the next best position player) in 2009. He was a great player in both seasons and deserved higher MVP finishes than he got even if you ignore the goofy high numbers that dWAR gives him under the new system but at the time his numbers weren't extreme.
As pointed out 9 or 10 times, the voting starts in April, so it pretty much has to. The Napoli selection suggests as much as well, as do others, probably.
As pointed out a second time, the majority of the votes happen in the final week or so, and the vast majority of the votes come in June.
My god! Won't someone please think of the children?!
Massively weighting the first 80 games of the current season is one perfectly cromulent way to decide your personal All-Star team. To pull out the smelling salts every time other people disagree with you is a little bit ridiculous.
OK then ... but in which galaxy does anyone actually imagine that the vast majority of the voting is based on anything besides, a) "oh I've heard of that guy," and b) "hey that guy plays for my favorite team!" This applies for player and manager selections, too, as far as I can tell.
Isn't that the point of all internet debates? I apologize if I came of as strident.
But it's weird that the argument has become a defense of the notion that the first half of the current season, which is the only information on the performance of players for this season, shouldn't be that highly considered when choosing this year's all star team.
I guess I should have voted for Ellsbury.
Cincinnati fans are pretty upset about the Cueto snub in particular. I'd like to think LaRussa left him off the team for some reason other than the the 2010 brouhaha. We'll never know though.
Johnny Cueto, Brandon Phillips snubs anger Reds
Awesome. Gonna be nice to no longer have LaRussa playing favorites with All Star selections.
Going to be difficult for Harper to win when many of his supporters will be without electricity throughout the voting period. Sure, there are smart phones, but who will use up their limited battery life to vote 25 times?
The players' voting is just all screwed up. It only makes "sense" to have them vote after the fans' votes are compiled (but that probably isn't feasible). No doubt virtually every player voted for Votto who won the fan vote. LaHair probably finished second with something like 5 votes and goes as the players' pick. If asked to vote for the best non-Votto NL 1B, they might well have come up with a different choice.
I don’t if know the manager of All-Star Game is pissed at me because I went out with one of his girlfriends.
ick.
1b--woulda preferred Konerko
2b--tough choice, woulda preferred Konerko
ss--what can you say
3b--would picked Miggie at 1b or dh but not 3b
of--got it
pitchers--dunno where to start or finish
dunno much about the nl but not crazy about the Uggla and Sandoval picks. What does Hill have to do? And I'm with the Dave Wright likers. And I don't care what Melky is coin' this year, we've seen enough to know he's not an all-star. OTOH I'm not a big Ryan Braun guy nor Carlos G. McCutcheon maybe.
If I could make 2 picks: Konerko and Hill.
Me too. That has the very real potential of being beyond Uggly.
I didn't think it was customary to consider a pitcher's day in the rotation. He may have an AS bonus in his contract, after all. But hey, it's a reason.
Also, I think the gf comment by Cueto was a joke added by the writer.
But I really hope it doesn't end up being Chipper Jones. As great a career as he has had, he's not worthy of being on the team this year just because it's his last season.
Ortiz and Fielder should join Cano on the AL, and what about Adam Dunn?
I would think that the guy leading the AL in HR, and who led the AL last year and the year before ... might be a choice for the HR Derby...
Kemp won't be going to the ASG, so there'll be an injury replacement both in the game and for the derby. Bourn for the game and Braun for the HR derby?
Altuve is a fun guy to watch. He's like five-five.
I assume the Subway commercial with Jared is already in the wings?
#fivefivefive
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